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SNA 2/1:
Pros- Top rated & top rated have a good record.
Cons. – Poor run LTO. No horse outside 1st 4 in 2000G has gone on to win the derby in 50 years. Will it handle the course? Form of RP trophy?
2/1 is madness. If you get tempted to back it between now & the 5th Day of June cry out loud C R O W D E D H O U S E.
Verdict: M De Knock is waiting
CAPE BLANCO:
Pros. Unbeaten. Fine specimen
Cons. Dam was a sprinter & 10F is as far as it would want to go. Most good judges question his trial win
Verdict. Off to Paris where it will get stuffed imv
MIDAS TOUCH
Is he a Galileo!! Or a Black Bear Island
Pros. Great mover & should handle the track, Will stay no problem, Won an established trial in a time faster than some legends & relying on the clock is better than most assessments. Badblokes ducked it throughout winter & spring.
One of the most serious AP gambles in recent years & all that money can’t be mine or Plat's. I can only assume that the right people close to the horse were responsible
Cons. Struggling to find one except that I have backed it at 33(& some of above could be pocket talk).
Verdict. He has drifted to a value price again. Personally would love to see KF ride Given a fast run race & good to firm ground, we may see the most impressive winner since Galileo or a dud like Black Bear Island
WORKFORCE
Pros. Great trainer, Great breeding, Physique
Cons. Track record of Dante losers, Inexperience, fast ground
Given the stable following the price could still crash if the planned gallop goes well. Likely to be backed on the day as well it allowed to run
Verdict: this may be too soon in his career
AZMEEL
Pros. Will stay. Athletic & rangy. Ability to quicken. Showed a will to win. Seagulled
Cons exposed? & may lack the x factor
Verdict: 16/1 about right but PW sucked the value last week. Was 33 after his trial & that was tremendous value. Can see him sneaking into a place
BULLET TRAIN
Impressive in a slowly run trial. Progressive. Can’t see it winning personally
REWILDING
Headmaster is on it & he proved a shrewd cookie with Makfi. Typical French beast that quickens at the end of a slow run race. Last two running’s of Derby were slow & that trend may continue unless the big Irish stable gets its right
Verdict: not without hope as the master Frenchman recommended him for the English Derby but the blue boys may have had enough time to mess him up
JAN VERMEER
Messed up loads of AP books including mine but don’t blame anyone else apart from yourself. Badblokes & Irish bookies were ducking him beforE Sunday’s race. Most Impressive & meets most derby stats. The race he won has been questioned but he beat 100+ rated horses giving them weight & laughing at them. Winners of that race are not classic bound usually but then not many have run in that race with a rating as high as JV.
Verdict: Derby Winner. Talk of France is nonsense
20/1 to 10’s to 8 & now 5 & 6’s. May end up being stable jockey’s pick if he is given that choice. However straightforward ride and not a –ive if he doesn’t. Stable used Ryan Moore last year
1. JAN VERMEER
2. MIDAS TOUCH
3. AZMEEL
MT is a huge win in my book, Azmeel is a big win and have managed to go just green on JV
Good luck with your bets.
SNA 2/1:
Pros- Top rated & top rated have a good record.
Cons. – Poor run LTO. No horse outside 1st 4 in 2000G has gone on to win the derby in 50 years. Will it handle the course? Form of RP trophy?
2/1 is madness. If you get tempted to back it between now & the 5th Day of June cry out loud C R O W D E D H O U S E.
Verdict: M De Knock is waiting
CAPE BLANCO:
Pros. Unbeaten. Fine specimen
Cons. Dam was a sprinter & 10F is as far as it would want to go. Most good judges question his trial win
Verdict. Off to Paris where it will get stuffed imv
MIDAS TOUCH
Is he a Galileo!! Or a Black Bear Island
Pros. Great mover & should handle the track, Will stay no problem, Won an established trial in a time faster than some legends & relying on the clock is better than most assessments. Badblokes ducked it throughout winter & spring.
One of the most serious AP gambles in recent years & all that money can’t be mine or Plat's. I can only assume that the right people close to the horse were responsible
Cons. Struggling to find one except that I have backed it at 33(& some of above could be pocket talk).
Verdict. He has drifted to a value price again. Personally would love to see KF ride Given a fast run race & good to firm ground, we may see the most impressive winner since Galileo or a dud like Black Bear Island
WORKFORCE
Pros. Great trainer, Great breeding, Physique
Cons. Track record of Dante losers, Inexperience, fast ground
Given the stable following the price could still crash if the planned gallop goes well. Likely to be backed on the day as well it allowed to run
Verdict: this may be too soon in his career
AZMEEL
Pros. Will stay. Athletic & rangy. Ability to quicken. Showed a will to win. Seagulled
Cons exposed? & may lack the x factor
Verdict: 16/1 about right but PW sucked the value last week. Was 33 after his trial & that was tremendous value. Can see him sneaking into a place
BULLET TRAIN
Impressive in a slowly run trial. Progressive. Can’t see it winning personally
REWILDING
Headmaster is on it & he proved a shrewd cookie with Makfi. Typical French beast that quickens at the end of a slow run race. Last two running’s of Derby were slow & that trend may continue unless the big Irish stable gets its right
Verdict: not without hope as the master Frenchman recommended him for the English Derby but the blue boys may have had enough time to mess him up
JAN VERMEER
Messed up loads of AP books including mine but don’t blame anyone else apart from yourself. Badblokes & Irish bookies were ducking him beforE Sunday’s race. Most Impressive & meets most derby stats. The race he won has been questioned but he beat 100+ rated horses giving them weight & laughing at them. Winners of that race are not classic bound usually but then not many have run in that race with a rating as high as JV.
Verdict: Derby Winner. Talk of France is nonsense
20/1 to 10’s to 8 & now 5 & 6’s. May end up being stable jockey’s pick if he is given that choice. However straightforward ride and not a –ive if he doesn’t. Stable used Ryan Moore last year
1. JAN VERMEER
2. MIDAS TOUCH
3. AZMEEL
MT is a huge win in my book, Azmeel is a big win and have managed to go just green on JV
Good luck with your bets.
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I agree with almost all of that OP.
Jan Vermeer was the horse I was most excited about coming into the season. Didn't look like he would be out in time for Epsom though so decided to back him for the Arc instead and look elsewhere.
Took a shot at Desert Myth (that didn't work out), but I was impressed by Midas in the Derrinstown, backed him and fancied him strongly until the monster appeared at the weekend. (Obv kicking myself that I didn't take a chance at double figure prices pre-race but the vibes where still for France).
In short, I'd like Midas to win for my pocket but I will back Jan Vermeer when he is a confirmed runner - because he will almost certainly win.
Jan Vermeer was the horse I was most excited about coming into the season. Didn't look like he would be out in time for Epsom though so decided to back him for the Arc instead and look elsewhere.
Took a shot at Desert Myth (that didn't work out), but I was impressed by Midas in the Derrinstown, backed him and fancied him strongly until the monster appeared at the weekend. (Obv kicking myself that I didn't take a chance at double figure prices pre-race but the vibes where still for France).
In short, I'd like Midas to win for my pocket but I will back Jan Vermeer when he is a confirmed runner - because he will almost certainly win.
hard to see past o'Brien at this stage,would love to see CB there but resigned to seeing him go to France,would have been big for me if he won,JV or MT will do nicely though.I dont think JM has a choice to be honest he probably does as he's told,Fallon must be in the frame to ride something would be great to see.
1.Midas Touch
2.Jan Vermeer
3.Azmeel
1.Midas Touch
2.Jan Vermeer
3.Azmeel
Bullish about my tricast
- because he will almost certainly win.
Oh for christ sake man.
Oh for christ sake man.
You a Jan layer C2? That topspeed for Leopardstown is appalling!
Hey Ben
Not a penny yet!!
But when people start saying he is a certainty, then of course I have to step forward and accommodate them!
I don't pay attention to times but the horse won very well and I tipped him that night on Soap's thread as my idea of the winner. At 3/1 though I will lay but looks like he will go shorter so waiting for another 2/1 horse to lay!!!
What do you like?
Not a penny yet!!
But when people start saying he is a certainty, then of course I have to step forward and accommodate them!
I don't pay attention to times but the horse won very well and I tipped him that night on Soap's thread as my idea of the winner. At 3/1 though I will lay but looks like he will go shorter so waiting for another 2/1 horse to lay!!!
What do you like?
Not sure yet, decided to wait until the final decs because I think tactics are going to be important and with the markets all over the place at the moment worth steering clear. Do think Jan looks too short now but sometimes I can be slow to react to the wild price swings so will look into it deeper before saying he won't win!
in order of financial reward..i'm @
rewilding
jan vermeer
workforce
by satd i think workforce will be my biggest winner from jan.
rewilding
jan vermeer
workforce
by satd i think workforce will be my biggest winner from jan.
Cheers Ben
Trev are you going to lay back some Jan or back workforce more?
Trev are you going to lay back some Jan or back workforce more?
i'll read reports this coming week...but most likely will back more workforce...jans to short to put anymore on..but always felt he was there best ...so wont be laying off..
Good stuff. I am against Workforce but then I was "against"
Kris fukking Kin. GL
Kris fukking Kin. GL
I'd still make Coordinated Cut the value at around 33/1 on here.
agree with charlton, the assertion that he will "almost certainly win" is so preposterous its almost not worth replying to
Preposterous you say?
mythical prince 28 May 10 19:23
cape blanco wins.
mythical prince 29 May 10 21:28
midas touch snaff.
Just you keep tipping a horse a day, mythical mug. By the the time Saturday comes you'll have the whole field covered. :^0
mythical prince 28 May 10 19:23
cape blanco wins.
mythical prince 29 May 10 21:28
midas touch snaff.
Just you keep tipping a horse a day, mythical mug. By the the time Saturday comes you'll have the whole field covered. :^0
Agree with you Bestmate about Midas Touch form. I'd say he was was Hgh Chappie to SNA's Hawk Wing, and that an enterprising ride like Murtagh gave that one -- kicking on frm the bottom of the hill and staying on better than the rest would get it won. Dont really mind if O'Donoughue, Heffernan or Smullen rides him. Would prefer Murtagh. And for my money, Fallon looks out to prove something to the Coolmore crowd, and i'd rather have someone without their own agenda on board.
As for Jan Vermeer -- it cant see the excitement. He conceded the weight, but didnt beat much in a slow time.
As for Jan Vermeer -- it cant see the excitement. He conceded the weight, but didnt beat much in a slow time.
As for Jan Vermeer -- it cant see the excitement. He conceded the weight, but didnt beat much in a slow time.
He has comfortably beaten (twice!) the horse you've just talked up for the race.
It is beyond me how anyone can fancy Midas and not like Jan Vermeer (unless you are worried about the short gap between his trial and the Derby).
As for the time of his trial win...he did it on the bridle ffs.
He has comfortably beaten (twice!) the horse you've just talked up for the race.
It is beyond me how anyone can fancy Midas and not like Jan Vermeer (unless you are worried about the short gap between his trial and the Derby).
As for the time of his trial win...he did it on the bridle ffs.
Of course they do - what's your point here, plat?
Are you saying Jan Vermeer is not one of those horses, and Midas Touch is?
Are you saying Jan Vermeer is not one of those horses, and Midas Touch is?
im saying quoting 2yo collateral form is a joke of an argument. not that hard a code to crack?
A joke of an argument?
I respect yout opinion, plat. You've prob forgot more about this game than I know, but are you really saying top class 2yo form is insignificant?
At Group 1 level the form hold ups the next year more often that it is reversed, especially early in the season.
I respect yout opinion, plat. You've prob forgot more about this game than I know, but are you really saying top class 2yo form is insignificant?
At Group 1 level the form hold ups the next year more often that it is reversed, especially early in the season.
mythical mug, lol i've never heard that before.
funny how defensive people get when u criticise their selection for a horse race, like you've insulted their long lost grandmother or something [smiley:crazy]
gd luck with jan vermeer anyway, plenty more to come from him i'd be looking to the 2 year old form the race the other day was clearly just a training gallop
funny how defensive people get when u criticise their selection for a horse race, like you've insulted their long lost grandmother or something [smiley:crazy]
gd luck with jan vermeer anyway, plenty more to come from him i'd be looking to the 2 year old form the race the other day was clearly just a training gallop
im starting to fancy him now, the only horse i've been able to rule out with confidence is bullet train so he wins on the snaff
mythical, I only called you that because of your sneering response to my first post (and the fact that you are a hypocrite).
Apparently if I write that I fancy a horse strongly it is 'proposterous' and 'not worth replying to'.
Perhaps I should have just posted 'Jan Vermeer sniff snaff snoff', no doubt that nonsense would have went unchallenged.
Apparently if I write that I fancy a horse strongly it is 'proposterous' and 'not worth replying to'.
Perhaps I should have just posted 'Jan Vermeer sniff snaff snoff', no doubt that nonsense would have went unchallenged.
I think Platinni makes sense WOI -- and I was cleary focusing on the merit of their performances in the 3yo Trials. If 2yo form is the issue, then SNA is your man.
I cant see that Jan's done much beating horses that I dont think rate. Midas was the horse AOB put into THE best Derby trial. Midas' pace maker -- who seems to be the one AOB will us at Epsom as well -- set a strong pace, Weld's nice looking Address Unknown took it up early straight, and then Midas went on to stay out a strong run 1.2fl when everything else was cooked. Reminds me of High Chappie.
I cant see that Jan's done much beating horses that I dont think rate. Midas was the horse AOB put into THE best Derby trial. Midas' pace maker -- who seems to be the one AOB will us at Epsom as well -- set a strong pace, Weld's nice looking Address Unknown took it up early straight, and then Midas went on to stay out a strong run 1.2fl when everything else was cooked. Reminds me of High Chappie.
true, i can see the arguments for jan vermeer (or van jermeer as aidan calls him) just the price has collapsed
contary to the throw away comments before [;)] i do think this derby is very open though and theres not one outstanding horse, st nick abbey would be on 2 year old performances but has he trained on?
contary to the throw away comments before [;)] i do think this derby is very open though and theres not one outstanding horse, st nick abbey would be on 2 year old performances but has he trained on?
I think Platinni makes sense WOI -- and I was cleary focusing on the merit of their performances in the 3yo Trials.
He almost always does (far more often that me, that's for sure) but he's off the mark on that one imo.
If 2yo form is the issue, then SNA is your man.
It's not about 2yo form alone obv. But top class 2yo form combined with a very impressive 3yo debut (imo) must be taking seriously. (I don't rate the RPT form that highly, fwiw.)
I cant see that Jan's done much beating horses that I dont think rate. Midas was the horse AOB put into THE best Derby trial. Midas' pace maker -- who seems to be the one AOB will us at Epsom as well -- set a strong pace, Weld's nice looking Address Unknown took it up early straight, and then Midas went on to stay out a strong run 1.2fl when everything else was cooked. Reminds me of High Chappie.
Listen (well it is an APOB thread!!), I'll be chuffed if Midas Touch scoots in as he is my biggest winner and I am a fan. As I said before, I was very confident about his chances until Jan reappeared, and again, but to a lesser extent, when Rewilding emerged.
What I don't see here though (as you are suggesting) is how MT has done much more than JV as a 3yo. Sure, he's won a respected trial, but he didn't beat much and his jockey had to work hard on him. While JV also didn't beat much, he conceeded weight to his rivals and beat them on the steel.
Good luck with your all bets.
He almost always does (far more often that me, that's for sure) but he's off the mark on that one imo.
If 2yo form is the issue, then SNA is your man.
It's not about 2yo form alone obv. But top class 2yo form combined with a very impressive 3yo debut (imo) must be taking seriously. (I don't rate the RPT form that highly, fwiw.)
I cant see that Jan's done much beating horses that I dont think rate. Midas was the horse AOB put into THE best Derby trial. Midas' pace maker -- who seems to be the one AOB will us at Epsom as well -- set a strong pace, Weld's nice looking Address Unknown took it up early straight, and then Midas went on to stay out a strong run 1.2fl when everything else was cooked. Reminds me of High Chappie.
Listen (well it is an APOB thread!!), I'll be chuffed if Midas Touch scoots in as he is my biggest winner and I am a fan. As I said before, I was very confident about his chances until Jan reappeared, and again, but to a lesser extent, when Rewilding emerged.
What I don't see here though (as you are suggesting) is how MT has done much more than JV as a 3yo. Sure, he's won a respected trial, but he didn't beat much and his jockey had to work hard on him. While JV also didn't beat much, he conceeded weight to his rivals and beat them on the steel.
Good luck with your all bets.
It takes more efort to go 2+ seconds below standard in a strongly run race than it does to run 6+ seocnd above standard in a moderately run race. What did Jan beat? I dont evn think it was that visually impressive, but even so, that type of form does not work out imo as often as a truly run race.
That said Jan Vermeer could prove to be the one on the day.
SNA ran a perfectly good trial in the Guineas, by the way -- so he has best 2y form and has run a good trial.
And good luck to you too.
That said Jan Vermeer could prove to be the one on the day.
SNA ran a perfectly good trial in the Guineas, by the way -- so he has best 2y form and has run a good trial.
And good luck to you too.
SNA ran a perfectly good trial in the Guineas
He ran a decent trial - not many Derby winners finish sixth in the Guineas I'd guess.
On that run he should be around the 7 or 8/1 mark for the Derby imo. 2/1 and below was ridiculous - his current price is a bit more sensible but still skinny.
He ran a decent trial - not many Derby winners finish sixth in the Guineas I'd guess.
On that run he should be around the 7 or 8/1 mark for the Derby imo. 2/1 and below was ridiculous - his current price is a bit more sensible but still skinny.
Agree SNA unbackable at 2s before the bad gallop and unbackable now as well.
Disagree w you about Guineas form. 6 in an above standad Guineas -- which it was in my opinion -- is better than 3rd in a below standard one. I thought SNA ran a good Middle D tral and could nly be considerd disapointing by those who believed the media hype.
If he lines up for Derby and the odds are 8s, it would be an excellent bet.
Disagree w you about Guineas form. 6 in an above standad Guineas -- which it was in my opinion -- is better than 3rd in a below standard one. I thought SNA ran a good Middle D tral and could nly be considerd disapointing by those who believed the media hype.
If he lines up for Derby and the odds are 8s, it would be an excellent bet.
laying this horse must've made you rich this season Charlton.
This what layers must have felt like when it was Teofilo and Holy Roman Emporer. Wish I had been around for that!
It's all very well saying that Jan Vermeer has two verdicts over Midas Touch so must be considered a more likely winner but that fails to consider three, not inconsiderable points!
1. It was soft in France
2. They will be travelling over half a mile more
3. 6 months is a long time in the development of a 3 yo colt
Both horses beat trees easily in their trials, who knows which is likely to prove best.
1. It was soft in France
2. They will be travelling over half a mile more
3. 6 months is a long time in the development of a 3 yo colt
Both horses beat trees easily in their trials, who knows which is likely to prove best.
1970
Valid points about JV vs MT
but I do't understand the logic of your last line.99% of people on this forum are gamblers & are in this game to find out who is the best before a race is run. You don't get rich knowing after the event
Valid points about JV vs MT
but I do't understand the logic of your last line.99% of people on this forum are gamblers & are in this game to find out who is the best before a race is run. You don't get rich knowing after the event
just saying it's foolhardy to be too dogmatic about horses at this stage of their careers. I'd just not put too much weight into what horses did at 2 in relation to this week's race.
Regardless of who's riding them i'd take Midas Touch at 10/1 over Jan Vermeer at 5/2 any day.
Regardless of who's riding them i'd take Midas Touch at 10/1 over Jan Vermeer at 5/2 any day.
1970: dont agree that Address Unknown is a 'tree'. But time will tell.
Fair enough, nor does Nick Mordin.
Makes Midas Touch appear all the better if that view is taken too...
Makes Midas Touch appear all the better if that view is taken too...
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