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Graeme83
16 May 10 20:25
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 9,104 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
Probabilities(9 ran last year)


steinbeck
canford cliffs
noel wallop
xtension
keradari



Possibilities

fencing master
jan vermeer
shintoh(bolger)
beethoven
elusive pimpernel
Free Judgement

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Replies: 131
By:
the lay preacher
When: 16 May 10 20:37
canford cliffs .1 mile softish ground perfect.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 May 10 20:40
Elusive Pimp heading to france for thier Derby.

Would like to see Xtension go close but dont think he is quite good enough, even though those who beat him at Newmarket had the benefit of a run. A softening in the ground could make it interesting for one or two of these.
By:
jair1970
When: 16 May 10 20:52
Canford Cliffs/ Noll Wallop

Can't decide.  See someone got 30/1+ on CC. Shocked Well done.

Any Steinbeck backers out there??  :)
By:
thegibbons
When: 16 May 10 20:53
ConfusedWhat about siyouni,the one that was given a bullshit ride in france today,so ended up not having a race?
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 16 May 10 21:54
Steinbeck for me gents, he'll be an absolute superstar this season Happy
By:
BJG
When: 16 May 10 21:56
Is he a beautfifully bred individual imo??

Mischief
By:
soldieroffortune
When: 16 May 10 22:08
BJG he's a lovely looking fellow Steinbeck, full in his frame and a big imposing 3YO colt. He's a truly beautifully bred individual by the superb Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand and out of a Danehill mare. He'll make a real name for himself this season Happy
By:
A_T
When: 17 May 10 09:44
It's almost like poetry Grin
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 09:48
Swinia has just kicked his cat Laugh
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 17 May 10 09:50
Agree with soldieroffortune.
By:
Graeme83
When: 17 May 10 10:06
Soldier - is Steinbeck definitely going to run ?
By:
sinndar001
When: 17 May 10 10:18
A_T     17 May 10 10:44 
It's almost like poetry

Or...............repitition!
By:
A_T
When: 17 May 10 10:21
Slipped up a bit though though surely should have said "the superb unbeaten Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand" Grin
By:
sintonian
When: 17 May 10 10:30
Mini Me
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 12:18
1    2454-   
Air Chief Marshal
b c Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Hawala (IRE)
(209) (Mrs John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith) Rated 110
A P O'Brien
2    11-23   
Canford Cliffs
b c Tagula (IRE) - Mrs Marsh (GB)
(22) (Heffer Synd, Mrs Roy&Mrs Insta)
R Hannon
3    9-22   
Carraiglawn
b c Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) - Affianced (IRE)
(14) (Mrs J S Bolger) Rated 92
J S Bolger
4    381-2   
Dynasty
b c Danehill Dancer (IRE) - Dash To The Top (GB)
(20) (Mrs John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith) Rated 103
A P O'Brien
5    6152   
Encompassing
b c Montjeu (IRE) - Sophisticat (USA)
(7) (Michael Tabor & Mrs John Magnier) Rated 100
A P O'Brien
6    12-7   
Fencing Master
b c Oratorio (IRE) - Moonlight Dance (USA)
(22) (Derrick Smith) Rated 116
A P O'Brien
7    15-4   
Fighting Brave
br c Storm Cat (USA) - Get Lucky (USA)
(56) (Derrick Smith, Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor) Rated 103
A P O'Brien
8    81-61   
Free Judgement
b c Vindication (USA) - South Bay Cove (CAN)
(20)  (Mrs June Judd, Mrs J S Bolger & Ennistown Stud) Rated 109
J S Bolger
9    411-   
Jan Vermeer
b c Montjeu (IRE) - Shadow Song (IRE)
(203) (Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier) Rated 119
A P O'Brien
10    13-1   
Keredari
b c Oasis Dream (GB) - Kerataka (IRE)
(42) (H H Aga Khan) Rated 106
John M Oxx
11    15-54   
Morana
b c Alhaarth (IRE) - Blushing Barada (USA)
(17) (A Black)
P W Chapple-Hyam
12    41-1   
Noll Wallop
b c High Chaparral (IRE) - Annie Girl (IRE)
(56) (Roger O'Byrne) Rated 109
T Stack
13    21-51   
Oasis Dancer
br c Oasis Dream (GB) - Good Enough (FR)
(22) (Mrs M E Slade)
R M Beckett
14    71-33   
Purple Heart
b c Sadler's Wells (USA) - Brigid (USA)
(21) (Derrick SmithMrs John Magnier, Michael Tabor & P J Magnier) Rated 94
A P O'Brien
15    132-7   
Sebastian Flyte
ch c Observatory (USA) - Aravonian (GB)
(56) (Mrs D F O'Rourke) Rated 107
Francis Ennis
16    41-1   
Shintoh
br c Giant's Causeway (USA) - Hollywood Wildcat (USA)
(7) (Mr I Cowan Staples Partnership) Rated 103
J S Bolger
17    14-   
Steinbeck
b c Footstepsinthesand (GB) - Castara Beach (IRE)
(218) (Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier)
A P O'Brien
18    28-20   
Viscount Nelson
b c Giant's Causeway (USA) - Imagine (IRE)
(22) (Mrs John Magnier) Rated 108
A P O'Brien
19    213-4   
Xtension
br c Xaar (GB) - Great Joy (IRE)
(22) (Brighthelm Racing)
C G Cox
20    41-2   
Zaahy
ch c More Than Ready (USA) - Sangam (USA)
(43) (M Al-Qatami & K M Al-Mudhaf)
By:
A_T
When: 17 May 10 12:26
Keredari looks interesting. Relatively unexposed and Oxx doesn't run horses for the sake of it.
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 13:07
Steinbeck and Jan lead O'Brien Guineas hopes

BY TONY O'HEHIR 12:58PM 17 MAY 2010

STEINBECK, ruled out of the StanJames.com 2,000 Guineas due to setback, and Jan Vermeer are among nine Aidan O'Brien-trained colts among the 20 acceptors for the Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh on Saturday.

Jan Vermeer has not raced since winning the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in November, while O'Brien's other acceptors for Saturday's Classic following the final forfeit stage on Monday are Air Chief Marshal, Dynasty, Encompassing, Fencing Master, Fighting Brave, Purple Heart and Viscount Nelson.

O'Brien will be bidding for a seventh Irish 2,000 Guineaswin and his third in a row following Henrythenavigator in 2008 and Mastercraftsman a year ago.

With the exception of Air Chief Marshal all of O'Brien's possible runners are entered for the Investec Derby on June 5.

Canford Cliffs, third in the 2,000 Guineas, heads the list of British-trained acceptors. His trainer Richard Hannon won the Curragh Classic with Don't Forget Me in 1987 and with Tirol in 1990.

The other British-trained acceptors are the Ralph Beckett-trained Oasis Dancer, 2,000 Guineas fourth Xtension and the Peter Chapple-Hyam pair Morana and Zaahy.

Also listed for Saturday's race over the straight mile at the Curragh are the Jim Bolger-trained Free Judgement, winner ofthe Group 3 Tetrarch Stakes on his most recent start, John Oxx's Keredari, who won the Listed Loughbrown Stakes at the Curragh last month, and the Tommy Stack-trained Noll Wallop, winner of the Group 3 Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial in March.

The ground at the Curragh on Monday morning was described as "good" on the straight course and "good to firm" on the round course.
By:
Swinia
When: 17 May 10 13:16
CryCryCrymother of god...this broken record player is out again...

I'd be interested in Shintoh if it lined up !!! very impressive yesterday against reasonable yard sticks (Barack was a close 2nd to king jock who was unlucky against famous name)...encompassing is a woof woof though
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 13:23
Racecaller's trends

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-15-58
American bred: 3-2-23
British bred: 1-1-13
French bred: 0-0-1
German bred: 0-0-1
10 of 10 winners were sired by a group winner (6 of 10 sires won group 1)
8 of 10 sires had won over no further than 1 mile

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception was a maiden before winning this)
10 of 10 winners had had 4 to 8 career starts
10 of 10 winners had run that season
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 21 days
8 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (all 4 exceptions had won or placed in group or listed race)
4 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (5 of 6 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners were born before 9th April

Other Races
English 2000 Guineas winner: 1211 (3-1-4)
Railway Stakes winner (Alfred Nobel): 1321 (2-2-4)
National Stakes winner (Kingsfort): 1221 (2-2-4)
Phoenix Stakes winner (Alfred Nobel): 321 (1-2-3)
Coventry Stakes winner (Canford Cliffs): 1 (1-0-1)
Dewhurst winner (Beethoven): 132 (1-2-3)
Prix Jean Luc Lagardere winner (Siyouni): 12 (1-1-2)
Richmond Stakes winner (**** Turpin): 1 (1-0-1)
8 of 10 winners ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 10754115
Record of horses who finished 2nd or 3rd in the English 2000 Guineas: 4250246328 (0-3-10)
2 of 10 winners ran in the French 2000 Guineas last time, finishing 16
3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 252
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 104
2 of 10 winners ran in the Gimcrack Stakes, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerville Tattersall Stakes, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 14

Trainers
10 of 10 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Great Britain
Aidan O’Brien (4-7-31) has won 4 of the last 10 however his runners have made up almost a third of the total to go to post in the race in the past 10 years.
British-trained runners (6-3-27) have won 6 of the past 10 runnings.
Saeed Bin Suroor (2-0-3) and Paul D’Arcy (1-0-1) are the only other trainers with entrants to have won it in the past 10 years.
Jim Bolger (0-3-6), Richard Hannon (0-2-3) and John Oxx (0-2-4) have all saddled multiple placed runners.

Price
9 of the last 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting
Favourites (4-6-11) have won 4 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 2.05 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Sire won a group race over 6F to 8F
·         Born before 9th April
·         Had 4 to 8 career starts
·         Won first time out as a 2yo
·         Won over 7F or 8F
·         Run in the past 21 days
·         Ran in the English 2000 Guineas last time out
·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien or in Britain
·         From first 4 in the betting
By:
mythical prince
When: 17 May 10 13:29
steinbeck for me as well like my mentor soldier of fortune[;)]
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 14:13
Xtension for me - is a perfect trends pick too. 6/1 looks fair.
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 15:35
VC have made a serious rick here!
7/1 Canford Cliffs!!!! Shocked Laugh
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 15:39
The dopey cnuts spotted it, now 3s Laugh
By:
sintonian
When: 17 May 10 16:05
Yes das Xtension looks a solid STATS bet .. anyone going NRNB
By:
Graeme83
When: 17 May 10 16:58
Coolmore/O'brien leave in 9 horses. What a bunch of ****s. The more i watch racing, the more i begin to dislike them. There's just no need whatsoever to have nine entries. They have also watered down the site after originally looking as if they would keep regular updates on O'Brien trained horses after pulling the plug on his site.
By:
nibbledat
When: 17 May 10 19:06
all over xtension
By:
Prospero
When: 17 May 10 20:12
Fencing Master to improve past both Canford Cliffs and Xtension.
By:
Charlton2005
When: 17 May 10 20:14
One that won't be winning is Noll Wallop. One horse race last time.
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 17 May 10 20:25
Agree with Prosp on this one despite a few stats being against him (no of runs, date of birth).

Think this course and the likely breakneck pace will suit him more than the others that reoppose from the English version.

Xtension's trainer form is enough to put me off him despite being a perfect 'trend' horse.
By:
TD_Gunner
When: 17 May 10 20:27
date of birth stat, wtf

shirley no one takes that seriously Plain
By:
downallstar
When: 17 May 10 22:12
You have to Gunny, when dealing with horses that are so young, a Jan/Feb foal has to have a natural advantage over a May foal. Esp if the trends back it up.
By:
sintonian
When: 17 May 10 22:17
Cox had two placed runners today HFC with a debutant beaten a Head.
Listening to him earlier he said his horses were behind this season compared with the same time last year .. due to the winter etc. Same for most trainer though I suspect.

He does seem quite bullish,tbf.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 17 May 10 22:18
Keredari sniff
By:
Ballhopper
When: 18 May 10 09:27
Note to The Lay Preacher . . . absolutely no chance of soft ground this weekend. Hasn't **** Turpin beaten Canford twice?
  Ballydoyle seem very sweet on Steinbeck, not so much Lillie Langtry (possibly needs a run). Fencing Master also liked, as are RVW, Cape Blanco, Age Of Aquarius and Rocket Man. Midas Touch going the right way but twice beaten by Jan Vermeer.
Awe Inspiring may go straight for the Oaks.
By:
sinndar001
When: 18 May 10 10:07
Steinbeck only a possible!!!! Shock shock horror horror. Has he ever missed an engagement before?

Fencing Master, That Ballydoyle crowd better leave plenty of pacemakers in the race unlike in Newmarket.
By:
A_T
When: 18 May 10 10:42
It's really not on same owner/stable declaring 9 for a race.
By:
sintonian
When: 18 May 10 10:59
Have you lot seen all the rain forecast for Ireland today ? Looks solid from 5pm until 11pm.

Didn;t Aidan say on his website before it was pulled down that Steinbeck could run in this ''with a view to Royal ascot''.  It would take one hell of a performance for him to win anyway given the strength of the opposition.
By:
downallstar
When: 18 May 10 11:07
Sint - shouldn't be more than 5mm of rain, at least it should stop the dc's from watering, maybe a shower on either thur or fri, but rest of the week to be warm and dry. Gnd is Good, Gf on the round course. Should be the same by the weekend, unless they fkn water! [>o]
By:
Ballhopper
When: 18 May 10 12:11
Curragh learned a bitter lesson about watering last year when local hero Sea The Stars didn't run in the Irish Derby.
Heatwave expected this weekend.
We don't know what will win - or even what will run! - but please no more wishful thinking abbout the ground.
Realistically, has Canford Cliffs really set the world alight since last year's Coventry? He's very good no question, but with doubts about trip and ground will he beat the massed ranks of Ballydoyle. A big ask.
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