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The Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (the French equivalent of the 1000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 16th May.
Trends for the past 10 years below:
AGE
Race for 3yos
BREEDING
Irish bred: 4-6-38
American bred: 3-4-21
British bred: 2-9-36
French bred: 1-1-31
UAE bred: 0-0-1
Irish and American bred horses (combined record of 7-10-59) have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 46.5% of the total runners
Speed in a horse’s pedigree seems key with only 1 of the 10 sires having won over further than a mile.
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in the Prix Morny (finished 62161221) (5 different sires)
6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in the first 3 in the Prix De La Salamandre (only 3 separate sires)
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in either the French or English 2000 Guineas
Zamindar has sired 3 winners and Kingmambo has sired two winners since 2000.
RECENT/PAST FORM
8 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first course start)
10 of 10 winners had had between 2 and 6 career starts
10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all career starts
6 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (2 exceptions placed in a listed race, other 2 exceptions won their maiden last time out)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
9 of 10 winners were born in Jan, Feb or March
OTHER RACES
Prix De La Grotte winner (Anna Salai): 8932214112 (3-4-10)
Prix De Marcel Boussac winner (Rosanara): 851214 (2-1-6)
Prix Imprudence winner (Joanna): 2851 (1-1-4)
Prix Du Calvados winner (Joanna): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Finlande winner (Baine): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix La Camargo winner (Liliside): 0205 (0-1-4)
Prix Miesque winner (Lixirova): 74 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Marcel Boussac, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De La Grotte, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix finlande, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 31
TRAINERS
Francois Rohaut (2-1-3) has saddled 2 winners and a second from his 3 runners in this.
Alain de Royal-Dupre (2-1-6) has won this twice, with 5 of his 6 runners making the first 4. Pascal Bary (2-1-7) has also gained 2 winners and a place in the past decade.
Andre Fabre (1-2-6), Aidan O'Brien (1-2-10), Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-5) and John Gosden (1-0-6) have all trained one winner since 2000.
Alex Pantall (0-2-6) has seen 2 of his 6 runners make the frame.
British based trainers (1-3-29) have won just 1 running of this in the past 10 years from approximately 22.8% of the runners.
Irish trained runners (1-3-14) have also gained 1 win and 3 places from less than half the number of British-trained runners.
Draw
If you omit the one running of this race with less than 10 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-9-36
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 6-2-36
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 0-6-34
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-1-13
All 9 winners in renewals with 10+ runners were drawn 8 or lower.
PRICE
No strong trends on the prices though 5 of the last 10 winners went off at double-figure odds.
Favourites (2-5-10) have won this just twice in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.38. Both winning favourites were odds-on, two other odds-on favourites have been turned over in the past decade.
SUMMARY:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• American or Irish bred (sire emphasis on speed)
• Sire ran in the Morny, Salamandre and/or a 2000 Guineas
• Born in January, February or March
• Had 2 to 5 career starts and run this season
• Won a race in the past 35 days
• Never finished worse than 4th
• Won over 7F or 8F
• Course winner
• Won the Prix De La Grotte or Prix Marcel Boussac
• Trained by F Rohaut, P Bary or A de Royal-Dupre
• Drawn 8 or below
Trends for the past 10 years below:
AGE
Race for 3yos
BREEDING
Irish bred: 4-6-38
American bred: 3-4-21
British bred: 2-9-36
French bred: 1-1-31
UAE bred: 0-0-1
Irish and American bred horses (combined record of 7-10-59) have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 46.5% of the total runners
Speed in a horse’s pedigree seems key with only 1 of the 10 sires having won over further than a mile.
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in the Prix Morny (finished 62161221) (5 different sires)
6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in the first 3 in the Prix De La Salamandre (only 3 separate sires)
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in either the French or English 2000 Guineas
Zamindar has sired 3 winners and Kingmambo has sired two winners since 2000.
RECENT/PAST FORM
8 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first course start)
10 of 10 winners had had between 2 and 6 career starts
10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all career starts
6 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (2 exceptions placed in a listed race, other 2 exceptions won their maiden last time out)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
9 of 10 winners were born in Jan, Feb or March
OTHER RACES
Prix De La Grotte winner (Anna Salai): 8932214112 (3-4-10)
Prix De Marcel Boussac winner (Rosanara): 851214 (2-1-6)
Prix Imprudence winner (Joanna): 2851 (1-1-4)
Prix Du Calvados winner (Joanna): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Finlande winner (Baine): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix La Camargo winner (Liliside): 0205 (0-1-4)
Prix Miesque winner (Lixirova): 74 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Marcel Boussac, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De La Grotte, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix finlande, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 31
TRAINERS
Francois Rohaut (2-1-3) has saddled 2 winners and a second from his 3 runners in this.
Alain de Royal-Dupre (2-1-6) has won this twice, with 5 of his 6 runners making the first 4. Pascal Bary (2-1-7) has also gained 2 winners and a place in the past decade.
Andre Fabre (1-2-6), Aidan O'Brien (1-2-10), Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-5) and John Gosden (1-0-6) have all trained one winner since 2000.
Alex Pantall (0-2-6) has seen 2 of his 6 runners make the frame.
British based trainers (1-3-29) have won just 1 running of this in the past 10 years from approximately 22.8% of the runners.
Irish trained runners (1-3-14) have also gained 1 win and 3 places from less than half the number of British-trained runners.
Draw
If you omit the one running of this race with less than 10 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-9-36
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 6-2-36
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 0-6-34
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-1-13
All 9 winners in renewals with 10+ runners were drawn 8 or lower.
PRICE
No strong trends on the prices though 5 of the last 10 winners went off at double-figure odds.
Favourites (2-5-10) have won this just twice in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.38. Both winning favourites were odds-on, two other odds-on favourites have been turned over in the past decade.
SUMMARY:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• American or Irish bred (sire emphasis on speed)
• Sire ran in the Morny, Salamandre and/or a 2000 Guineas
• Born in January, February or March
• Had 2 to 5 career starts and run this season
• Won a race in the past 35 days
• Never finished worse than 4th
• Won over 7F or 8F
• Course winner
• Won the Prix De La Grotte or Prix Marcel Boussac
• Trained by F Rohaut, P Bary or A de Royal-Dupre
• Drawn 8 or below
Show More
Lady Of The Desert is well held by Special Duty on last year's Cheveley Park form and there is no obvious reason why she should reverse form (now we know that Special Duty stays a mile). Full Steam won a moderately-run mile conditions race last time by 3 lengths, but the form is nothing special and a lot more is needed here. Liliside is three from three this year (all on very soft or heavy ground), last time won a Listed race by a head from Zagora (who went on to land the Gr.3 Prix Vanteaux by 2½ lengths from the Prix Marcel Boussac runner-up On Verra); needs to make further improvement on faster ground against much better opposition. Barouda won last year's Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs and was 7th on her seasonal return in the Prix de la Grotte (held by Rosanara): plenty more is needed here. Dolled Up is bred to get this trip but disappointed on her seasonal debut in the Prix de la Grotte (behind Rosanara) and has plenty to do to reverse last year's form with Special Duty. Ayun Tara was a close 2nd to Barouda in last year's Prix des Reservoirs and finished runner-up to Siyaadah in the UAE 1000 Guineas: neither performance is good enough to suggest she can get competitive here. Baine won a 9f Listed race at Longchamp (soft ground) narrowly from the exposed American Nizzy (subsequently last of five to Zagora) and needs to find about a stone on that form.
The three with the best form credentials are Special Duty, Rosanara and Joanna. Special Duty was beaten a length by Joanna in the Prix Imprudence (soft ground) but returned to somewhere near her best form when winning the 1000 Guineas last time (well drawn); she goes particularly well on straight tracks and needs to show her versatility here over the round mile at Longchamp. Joanna has progressed well with racing and finished her juvenile campaign with a good 3rd to Rosanara in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac; she showed that she had trained on well when winning the Prix Imprudence in good style on her seasonal return; she should be suited by the step back up to a mile. Rosanara holds Joanna on last season's Prix Marcel Boussac form and ran an eyecatching race on her seasonal reappearance in the Prix de la Grotte (ran on well to lead inside the final furlong, no extra final 100 yards): if she needed that race and is back to her best here she will have a big chance.
A fascinating and high-class race. It's hard to get away from the claims of the three form fillies. If she's back to her very best, Rosanara would have particularly strong claims. But Special Duty is a very smart filly and may reverse Prix Imprudence form with Joanna on the likely quicker ground. If Rosanara is a significantly bigger price than Special Duty on the day, I will back Rosanara. Otherwise I will be cheering on Special Duty, who did me a very big favour in the 1000 Guineas.
The three with the best form credentials are Special Duty, Rosanara and Joanna. Special Duty was beaten a length by Joanna in the Prix Imprudence (soft ground) but returned to somewhere near her best form when winning the 1000 Guineas last time (well drawn); she goes particularly well on straight tracks and needs to show her versatility here over the round mile at Longchamp. Joanna has progressed well with racing and finished her juvenile campaign with a good 3rd to Rosanara in the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac; she showed that she had trained on well when winning the Prix Imprudence in good style on her seasonal return; she should be suited by the step back up to a mile. Rosanara holds Joanna on last season's Prix Marcel Boussac form and ran an eyecatching race on her seasonal reappearance in the Prix de la Grotte (ran on well to lead inside the final furlong, no extra final 100 yards): if she needed that race and is back to her best here she will have a big chance.
A fascinating and high-class race. It's hard to get away from the claims of the three form fillies. If she's back to her very best, Rosanara would have particularly strong claims. But Special Duty is a very smart filly and may reverse Prix Imprudence form with Joanna on the likely quicker ground. If Rosanara is a significantly bigger price than Special Duty on the day, I will back Rosanara. Otherwise I will be cheering on Special Duty, who did me a very big favour in the 1000 Guineas.
Barouda won last year's Gr.3 Prix des Reservoirs and was 7th on her seasonal return in the Prix de la Grotte (held by Rosanara): plenty more is needed here.
Barouda had no luck uin runnin that day under Kieran - would have gone close and will win tomorrow IMO
Barouda had no luck uin runnin that day under Kieran - would have gone close and will win tomorrow IMO
Liliside & Baine for a small interest, looks a good race.
Very interesting shape to the race with valid doubts about 3 of the top 4 in the market (Special Duty probably flattered by the draw at Newmarket, Rosanara turned over in the Prix de la Grotte, and Lady Of The Desert little chance of getting home).
Full Steam is a nicely bred (full sister to Zamindar & Zafonic), lightly-raced filly running for Andre Fabre. The nice prices about her with GB bookies have been mineswept today but the 16s still available may yet be worth taking.
Barouda is also too big at 20s, presumably because of her uninspiring 7th in the Grotte, but she'd surely have beaten Rosanara there if Fellon hadn't got her into all sorts of trouble on the rail. Peslier steps in tomorrow.
Full Steam is a nicely bred (full sister to Zamindar & Zafonic), lightly-raced filly running for Andre Fabre. The nice prices about her with GB bookies have been mineswept today but the 16s still available may yet be worth taking.
Barouda is also too big at 20s, presumably because of her uninspiring 7th in the Grotte, but she'd surely have beaten Rosanara there if Fellon hadn't got her into all sorts of trouble on the rail. Peslier steps in tomorrow.
Agree with mike and bacchanal....Barouda far too big.
Not really a stretch to beleieve she'd have finished ahead of Rosanara last time with a clear run.
Not really a stretch to beleieve she'd have finished ahead of Rosanara last time with a clear run.
I'm all over Rosanara here.
Unlike Special Duty, has been clearly targeted at this race.
Excellent form over CD which holds Joanna. Clearly prepping last time out. Dream team of Aga khan / Royer-Dupre. Isn't Zarkava but is being campaigned the same way.
Given form lines,like others, i'd price this up with 3 vying for favouritism so astounded to see 6.2 on offer, even allowing for the obvious prejudice of this being a British betting exchange making Special Duty 2.76.
If you like Joanna (currently 5.3) or Rosanara, you're getting a good deal imo!
Unlike Special Duty, has been clearly targeted at this race.
Excellent form over CD which holds Joanna. Clearly prepping last time out. Dream team of Aga khan / Royer-Dupre. Isn't Zarkava but is being campaigned the same way.
Given form lines,like others, i'd price this up with 3 vying for favouritism so astounded to see 6.2 on offer, even allowing for the obvious prejudice of this being a British betting exchange making Special Duty 2.76.
If you like Joanna (currently 5.3) or Rosanara, you're getting a good deal imo!
Like an unexposed type for this. Full Steam fits the bill and is interesting at a big price.
Leatherhead 15 May 10 22:43
Like an unexposed type for this. Full Steam fits the bill and is interesting at a big price
You are not wrong. Has it evaded the pricewise kybosh?
Like an unexposed type for this. Full Steam fits the bill and is interesting at a big price
You are not wrong. Has it evaded the pricewise kybosh?
bacchanal 15 May 21:32
Full Steam is a nicely bred (full sister to Zamindar & Zafonic), lightly-raced filly running for Andre Fabre.
Full Steam's dam Western Appeal is a full sister to Zafonic and Zamindar (and was nothing special on the racecourse - Listed placed and finished last of 10 in a Group 3).
Full Steam is a nicely bred (full sister to Zamindar & Zafonic), lightly-raced filly running for Andre Fabre.
Full Steam's dam Western Appeal is a full sister to Zafonic and Zamindar (and was nothing special on the racecourse - Listed placed and finished last of 10 in a Group 3).
yes apologies, jp. Hopefully this offspring isn't bad, following the rave reviews of her run at Chantilly.
Is Rosanaras last run available to watch on ATR website ?? Cant seem to view at the mo ..
I dont think they have the frecnh racing available as it goes , just england and ireland.
here you are, Fran:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqLo-C1aF88
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqLo-C1aF88
I've backed Joanna and Rosanara and also put them in doubles with D1ck Turpin and Siyouni, so hope you're right Graeme
Fingers crossed redal. It's an interest in some races at least, and my last until the Derby or ascot. That 7/2 about Goldikova looks good.
The move for Full Steam is interesting, but it seems to be based more on faith in the trainer (Andre Fabre) than on the filly's own achievements to date. I'm not ruling her out by any means, but I find that the percentage call is usually to oppose these unexposed types when they're thrown into Group 1 company. The move for Joanna is also slightly puzzling: she looked good on her reappearance in the Imprudence (when Special Duty patently needed the race), but I'd be a little surprised if she managed to reverse Boussac form with Rosanara (who has been prepared specially for this race and was not 100% in the Prix de la Grotte). Once again, people seem to have taken trial form at face value (which is often a mistake). I'm starting to side with Special Duty now that she has drifted out to backable odds (currently 3.5): people were backing her earlier this morning at around 2.9 and she is starting to look good value - her outside draw is not a particular worry with only ten runners and she is reportedly in great form at home.
I'm a Joanna backer in this. I think Special Duty's 1000 Guineas win in a 6 runner stands side race with a bunch of average horses is poor form and she is way too short today. Even if I have her all wrong that was a hard race just 2 weeks ago on ground softer than she'd have liked. There is a fair chance that even at her best Joanna could still be better than her given that we don't know how tuned up she was for their last meeting.
I can't have Lady of The Desert even if I'd like to see those colours win a Guineas ;). I don't think she'l stay much like everyone else.
As for Rosanara she looks the main danger but you have to think she wants further than a mile. She looks like a 10/12f horse running in a mile race to me. She will have to be a superstar to be winning this.
This race doesn't look to have many true milers in it and I think Joanna could be the best of them. I may well be wrong about Special Duty, she does keep winning big races but clearly luck has played it's part so far.
I can't have Lady of The Desert even if I'd like to see those colours win a Guineas ;). I don't think she'l stay much like everyone else.
As for Rosanara she looks the main danger but you have to think she wants further than a mile. She looks like a 10/12f horse running in a mile race to me. She will have to be a superstar to be winning this.
This race doesn't look to have many true milers in it and I think Joanna could be the best of them. I may well be wrong about Special Duty, she does keep winning big races but clearly luck has played it's part so far.
After following Special Duty since jamesp highlighted her (a big thabks again) i have deserted her today as i felt everything fell her way at Newmarket and think it wont happen today. if i am wrong then i applaud her and her connections.
JOANNA ZOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
One of the poorest riding performances on Special Duty I'll see in a long time. Best horse in race, but worst jockey on the day! No money on it either.
If Jacqueline Quest loses it in England then that winner should definitely be thrown out in France.
Thought Baine got cut up on the inner too, Rohaut 1st and 3rd (fptp) another good day for him in this race
according to the french guy on ruk no way the winner will keep race.
Rosanara would have won that if it wasn't for Guyon of full steam.
Cheers bm, ir lay has me green on the 1st, think bookies ave paid out as well, so all good.
Many thanks again to racecaller for his trends!!!!!!!!
Many thanks again to racecaller for his trends!!!!!!!!
what a joke...claude reckons its..
1 Special Duty
2 Rosanara
3 Lady of Desert
ffs why bother running the race if you're going to make up the result.
1 Special Duty
2 Rosanara
3 Lady of Desert
ffs why bother running the race if you're going to make up the result.
the stewards cant control what the dopey jockeys do, tbf.
It'd be so funny if she got this one too.
Would it be a record?
Would it be a record?
the jockey will be looking a long ban for that aswell wont he ? Quite a dangerous manouver imo
wd sd backers. Thoguht she was more fortunate to win this race than at Newmarket tbh.
GEDDIN dont think I will ever have a disqualification double up again.
Thank God some bookies pay out on both results, 20-1 winner .
Well chuffed as was going to back Siyouni in the 2000 but totally distracted by the 1000.
Amazing result. Under the French rules Special Duty had to be awarded the race, and she did look the best filly on the day, but Stephane Pasquier was frankly a bit lucky - it was not one of his best rides. Rosanara looked a bit unlucky and made the expected improvement from her seasonal debut. Joanna perhaps did too much in front and didn't quite get home. Lady Of The Desert was absolutely murdered in the last 75 yards and proved that she stays a mile. I split stakes in the end (on Rosanara and Special Duty), as I thought they were both good value compared with Joanna.
think they realised that the result wouldve been farcical if they applied the rules and disqualified everyone so just swapped kicked out Liliside.
Great call downallstar, hope you got paid out on the first past the post.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfhFcHLfMc
Special Duty didn't look the best filly on the day, Rosanara did.
Special Duty didn't look the best filly on the day, Rosanara did.
Special Duty came from further back than Rosanara imo, from plum last basically and was cruising next to Rosanara when she was bumped. Great effort by the latter to come back though.
Rosanara was nearly knocked off her feet kirk, SD was able to come through unscathed. I think there was half a length at the end between them, best horse finished 4th
Well you have to take into account how long Special Duty had to wait to make her run ... the jockey was cruising and looking to kick through much earlier imo. Rosanara obviously very unlucky but I would take SD again definitely. After the Guineas thought she would go through the season unbeaten but didnt take into account the jockey riding her like that albeit not from a good draw.
Also SD stumbled on the turn .. to finish as she did took a lot of courage ... lets hope people write her off her next race again, will be on again.
Lemaire timed it perfectly. He would have had first run on Special Duty (who was trapped in the pocket). At the same moment he is about to make his move Rosanara is struck into.
kirk, I'm an SD fan but would oppose her with Rosanara from here. However, it's all about opinion.
Special Duty suffered no interference and still couldn't win.
Laughable that she is a double classic 'winner'.
Laughable that she is a double classic 'winner'.
Think she did suffer interference in that she was locked in for too long and would have made her run earlier. She is all class imo and to almost get up from so far behind with the pace on only late says a lot about her.
Fran Merida Joined: 24 Apr 08
Replies: 1100 16 May 10 14:23
the stewards cant control what the dopey jockeys do, tbf.
Agree 100%. The jock obviously knew he had plenty of horse under him and panicked into getting a run. A bad mistake.
Replies: 1100 16 May 10 14:23
the stewards cant control what the dopey jockeys do, tbf.
Agree 100%. The jock obviously knew he had plenty of horse under him and panicked into getting a run. A bad mistake.
if she was 'all class' why can't she pass the post first?
I was on Rosanara and am happy to follow her throughout the season after that effort.
She'll come into her own over further but these miling fillies look a decent bunch and could beat each other all year imo
I was on Rosanara and am happy to follow her throughout the season after that effort.
She'll come into her own over further but these miling fillies look a decent bunch and could beat each other all year imo
Today wasnt over further it was over a mile and Special Duty is the best mile filly in training simple as .. who is the bad loser here then.
How does my comment reflect on me as a bad loser then?
FFS. I like Special Duty and don't disagree she's good, it's just disheartening that she's yet to pass the post first this year... Hard luck stories abound in today's race, thw 'winner' more than any.
Would be reluctant to take a short price again about Special Duty, something you've got no problems with, but then we dont' all like favourites I guess...
FFS. I like Special Duty and don't disagree she's good, it's just disheartening that she's yet to pass the post first this year... Hard luck stories abound in today's race, thw 'winner' more than any.
Would be reluctant to take a short price again about Special Duty, something you've got no problems with, but then we dont' all like favourites I guess...
They may be favourites on the day if you are skillful enough to find them early at big prices. They then have the strongest chance of winning. Picking 20/1 shots on the day is not clever it is 'hopeful'.
Hopefully people will keep giving good prices for her this is a good development. She has been the best horse in the race her last 2 runs but has been impeded. There is more to come as well she will go on progressing.
Hopefully people will keep giving good prices for her this is a good development. She has been the best horse in the race her last 2 runs but has been impeded. There is more to come as well she will go on progressing.
i agree with kirk the filly put up a cracking performance today from the worse draw.and there will be more to come.
bearing in mind your first contribution on this thread was 10 minutes before the race, Kirk, what was the average price you got on Special Duty today and was it favourite when you backed it?
Cheers
Cheers
I had her the \guineas before she was favourite and had her today also. 20/1 losers arent my cup of tea tbh if there is a very strong fav available.
that doesn't:
1. make any sense
2. answer the question
Come on Kirk, play the game.
What's this 20/1 loser you speak of too?
We'll conclude that you backed her at 6/4 ten minutes before the race then, unless you'd like to tell us otherwise.
1. make any sense
2. answer the question
Come on Kirk, play the game.
What's this 20/1 loser you speak of too?
We'll conclude that you backed her at 6/4 ten minutes before the race then, unless you'd like to tell us otherwise.
SD is likely to be given a break now. A total joy for those who included her in the TTF.
I reckon they should drop her in trip a furlong tbh, to use that speed...........
I reckon they should drop her in trip a furlong tbh, to use that speed...........
kirk st. moritz Joined: 04 Feb 07
Replies: 512 16 May 10 20:21
Today wasnt over further it was over a mile and Special Duty is the best mile filly in training simple as .. who is the bad loser here then.
Until she meets the English Guineas field in a fair race then I'm afraid that is a bit of a sweeping statement. For the best mile filly in training she is "beating" some horses that don't look too good or are not proper milers by less than a length.
She is clearly a good horse but until she actually finishes first against the best horses in a fair race I think the jury is still out.
Replies: 512 16 May 10 20:21
Today wasnt over further it was over a mile and Special Duty is the best mile filly in training simple as .. who is the bad loser here then.
Until she meets the English Guineas field in a fair race then I'm afraid that is a bit of a sweeping statement. For the best mile filly in training she is "beating" some horses that don't look too good or are not proper milers by less than a length.
She is clearly a good horse but until she actually finishes first against the best horses in a fair race I think the jury is still out.
You were decrying fav backers. Your logic is totally wrong but will let you work that out.
Looking forward to her next run already has won me 5 figures so far.
Looking forward to her next run already has won me 5 figures so far.
SD was not as good as Liliside today imv, she was a fortunate winner today, can't argue with the dq, but SD was not impeded in anyway by the winner.
Imo Music Show will prove to be the best filly over 8f this season.
Imo Music Show will prove to be the best filly over 8f this season.
the best horse won ,despite not having the best of rides,hope she runs in the coronation and wins again, dont give a monkeys if its in the stewards room either , enough people will begrudge her two classic wins for her to be sent off at a good price, bring it on
[i]They may be favourites on the day if you are skillful enough to find them early at big prices. They then have the strongest chance of winning[/i]
What price did you back Special Duty today, Kirk?
How many minutes before the race did you back Special Duty?
What price did you back Special Duty today, Kirk?
How many minutes before the race did you back Special Duty?
what people are forgetting is at n/ket the rain softened ground was all against her and at longchamp she had the worse draw of all . you could argue both races have not showed her in the best light yet.
that is a fair point about the ground and surpised not many have mentioned it tbh. Had it been GF and no draw bias that does not automatically mean the others would have beat her because she performs better on decent ground anyway, imo.
lay preacher...what about her having the best draw of all at N'market?
I don't understand why people would wish to crab Special Duty's form. The 1000 Guineas was ruined as a proper race because of the obvious draw bias, but even so the form isn't at all bad. The placed fillies are almost certainly much improved performers this year and pulled five lengths clear of the rest on the stands' side. Runner-up Jacqueline Quest may have looked exposed on the form figures, but she was almost certainly over the top and/or hated the soft ground on her final juvenile start at Newbury and then badly needed the race on her seasonal debut this year in the Nell Gwyn: she was, in other words, relatively unexposed and had looked smart when winning her maiden by nine lengths last year. The third (Gile Na Greine) is a highly regarded filly who was thrown in at the deep end on only her second racecourse appearance last year in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (on heavy ground) and ran a respectable race on her comeback in April at a time when Bolger's horses weren't really firing. The fourth (Sent From Heaven) had made steady if unspectacular progress in her four races last year and was unlucky not to finish a bit closer in the Fillies' Mile on her final start (just behind You'll Be Mine): she has clearly done very well from two to three and was prepared specially for the Guineas. The 1000 Guineas form should not be taken literally as far as the high-drawn fillies are concerned, but I reckon the first four home are all smart fillies.
As far as the Pouliches form is concerned, there's no doubt that Special Duty did remarkably well to get so close, as she came from a long way back and once again showed a very good turn of foot. Joanna and Rosanara (who looked unlucky) are smart fillies in their own right, and Lady Of The Desert returned to something like her best form (she put up a smart performance in last year's Lowther), so the form has a very solid look to it and the two Rohaut fillies are clearly much improved performers.
I wouldn't back any of the 1000 Guineas or Pouliches fillies to beat Special Duty in future. She was champion two-year-old filly last year and appears to be the best of a moderate bunch so far this year. The English/French Guineas double is a very rare feat and puts Special Duty in the same league as Ravinella and Miesque. Three Group 1 'wins' so far and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her add to that tally.
As far as the Pouliches form is concerned, there's no doubt that Special Duty did remarkably well to get so close, as she came from a long way back and once again showed a very good turn of foot. Joanna and Rosanara (who looked unlucky) are smart fillies in their own right, and Lady Of The Desert returned to something like her best form (she put up a smart performance in last year's Lowther), so the form has a very solid look to it and the two Rohaut fillies are clearly much improved performers.
I wouldn't back any of the 1000 Guineas or Pouliches fillies to beat Special Duty in future. She was champion two-year-old filly last year and appears to be the best of a moderate bunch so far this year. The English/French Guineas double is a very rare feat and puts Special Duty in the same league as Ravinella and Miesque. Three Group 1 'wins' so far and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her add to that tally.
I like Special Duty but don't think she's done enough to be classed as the superior miling 3yo filly this year.
Liliside did not interfere with Special Duty and beat her to the line,.
Special Duty has been first past the post twice in seven starts, her record now looks a lot better than her acual performances!
Rosanara got checked in her run at the same time Special Duty took off, ended up a length and a half behind at least then regathered herself and ended up beaten heads and necks. So without a clear run, she covered the last 3 furlongs from further back and faster.
I doubt we'll see Rosanara over a mile again but if we did she'd carry my money (again!) against Special Duty.
Liliside did not interfere with Special Duty and beat her to the line,.
Special Duty has been first past the post twice in seven starts, her record now looks a lot better than her acual performances!
Rosanara got checked in her run at the same time Special Duty took off, ended up a length and a half behind at least then regathered herself and ended up beaten heads and necks. So without a clear run, she covered the last 3 furlongs from further back and faster.
I doubt we'll see Rosanara over a mile again but if we did she'd carry my money (again!) against Special Duty.
nice posts , cant wait for deauville,would love to see the filly win impressively next time , spose the coronation was too soon , will catch up with you all in august, best wishes to all the believers
If jac quest 'badly needed the race in Nell Gwyn' she did recovered exceptionally quickly to run 'so well' in Gns.
Reality is she diddnt need race that badly..she just isnt as good as you think.Rose tinted goggles again james.
Reality is she diddnt need race that badly..she just isnt as good as you think.Rose tinted goggles again james.
There is absolutely no doubt that Jacqueline Quest needed the race in the Nell Gwyn. If you compare the race comments for the Nell Gwyn with those for the Guineas, it's clear that she 'blew up' in the Nell Gwyn: 'led halfway, ridden and headed over a furlong out, weakened inside final furlong'. Those are classic race comments for a horse short of peak fitness in need of the race. At that stage of the season (mid-April) a number of Henry's horses were badly in need of their first run of the season and some made dramatic improvement next time out (eg Moose Moran improved by 21lbs, Florentine Ruler also improved by 21lbs, according to Racing Post Ratings). Jacqueline Quest improved by 23lbs, according to RPRs, from the Nell Gwyn to the Guineas: this is a big improvement, certainly, but not beyond the bounds of possibility, given that she patently blew up in the Nell Gwyn. Henry knew that his horses were behind schedule, and following the disappointing efforts of Timepiece and Jacqueline Quest he decided to pull Aviate out of her intended trial in the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury. Two weeks later Aviate was ready for her reappearance at Ascot. If you genuinely think that Jacqueline Quest ran anywhere near her Nell Gwyn form in the Guineas, just consider the massive turnaround in form with Distinctive (nine lengths, to be precise).
I can't have the 1000G form at all, esp as 3/4 of the field were at a massive disadvantage.
SD was also beaten fair and square by Liliside on Sunday.
Rosanara was def the unlucky filly on Sunday.
SD was also beaten fair and square by Liliside on Sunday.
Rosanara was def the unlucky filly on Sunday.
We'll have to agree to disagree then. Just because 10 of the 17 runners (59%) in the Guineas were at a significant disadvantage it doesn't necessarily follow that the stands' side form won't work out. There is no way of knowing just how much difference the draw made (in terms of lengths) or whether Music Show would have been involved in the finish if she had been drawn low.
Special Duty was beaten fair and square (by a head) on Sunday, but she came from a long way back and was finishing at least as fast as Rosanara in the last 50 yards: these two were certainly the strongest finishers, and I agree that Rosanara was unlucky (though I don't think she would necessarily have beaten Special Duty with a completely clear run). To my eyes at least Special Duty, who only got into the clear about a furlong out, has at least as good a turn of foot as Rosanara (whose class was there for all to see in last year's Prix Marcel Boussac): they are both smart fillies over a mile, but I suspect that Rosanara (being by Sinndar out of a 10f winner) may prove even better over an extra couple of furlongs. On fast ground over a mile I would certainly expect Special Duty to beat Rosanara, though they probably won't ever meet again over that trip. I backed Rosanara for Sunday's race at 11/2 but also backed Special Duty late on when she drifted out to a massive 3/1 and bigger on Betfair shortly before the off - she is simply too smart a filly not to back her at those sorts of odds.
It's all about opinions and for what it's worth I would still expect Special Duty to beat any of the Guineas and Pouliches fillies over a mile on fast ground. The only one that would worry me under such conditions is Music Show, as there's simply no way of knowing quite how much ground she lost because of her draw. Clearly she was at a disadvantage of several lengths, but did it make a difference of 6½ lengths (the distance by which she was beaten)? Special Duty herself was taken halfway across the course and would probably have won the race comfortably if she had been allowed to run unimpeded to the line.
Special Duty was beaten fair and square (by a head) on Sunday, but she came from a long way back and was finishing at least as fast as Rosanara in the last 50 yards: these two were certainly the strongest finishers, and I agree that Rosanara was unlucky (though I don't think she would necessarily have beaten Special Duty with a completely clear run). To my eyes at least Special Duty, who only got into the clear about a furlong out, has at least as good a turn of foot as Rosanara (whose class was there for all to see in last year's Prix Marcel Boussac): they are both smart fillies over a mile, but I suspect that Rosanara (being by Sinndar out of a 10f winner) may prove even better over an extra couple of furlongs. On fast ground over a mile I would certainly expect Special Duty to beat Rosanara, though they probably won't ever meet again over that trip. I backed Rosanara for Sunday's race at 11/2 but also backed Special Duty late on when she drifted out to a massive 3/1 and bigger on Betfair shortly before the off - she is simply too smart a filly not to back her at those sorts of odds.
It's all about opinions and for what it's worth I would still expect Special Duty to beat any of the Guineas and Pouliches fillies over a mile on fast ground. The only one that would worry me under such conditions is Music Show, as there's simply no way of knowing quite how much ground she lost because of her draw. Clearly she was at a disadvantage of several lengths, but did it make a difference of 6½ lengths (the distance by which she was beaten)? Special Duty herself was taken halfway across the course and would probably have won the race comfortably if she had been allowed to run unimpeded to the line.
James, where is Rosanara likely to go next ? Has she come out of the race Ok do you know ?
I don't know how Rosanara has come out of Sunday's race. She is in the Prix Saint-Alary next Sunday, but that will come too soon, so I guess her next race will be in either the Prix de Diane on 13 June or the Coronation Stakes on 18 June. If they want to step her up to a mile and a half, she's in the Irish Oaks on 18 July. My money would be on the Prix de Diane.
james..good point about Distinctive..I stand corrected.
How do you work out the Dahlia then? Pretty obvious to me that strawberry is way in front of Honimiere.. so I have NO problem with the middle being 10l behind on the day.
And if Queally had looked where he was going and kept her balanced(see head on), JQ would have won imo.
How do you work out the Dahlia then? Pretty obvious to me that strawberry is way in front of Honimiere.. so I have NO problem with the middle being 10l behind on the day.
And if Queally had looked where he was going and kept her balanced(see head on), JQ would have won imo.
The Dahlia Stakes was an interesting result, but it should be noted that Strawberrydaiquiri's official rating (OR 113) is based on her win in last year's Listed Atalanta Stakes at Sandown and that the Racing Post Ratings suggest that she ran 9lbs below that form in the Dahlia Stakes. Honimiere was officially rated 94 before the Dahlia Stakes, but if you accept that Strawberrydaiquiri ran 9lbs below her rating (which is, admittedly, just one organisation's opinion and far from exact science), then Honimiere ran 10lbs better than could have been expected (based on her official mark), which equates to about 4 or 5 lengths over 9f on yielding ground. On that basis I'd be happy to estimate that the horses racing on the stands' side had an advantage of 4 or 5 lengths over those racing in the centre.
Some pretty rubbish horses nearly caused upsets on the day of the 1000 Guineas James just cos they came up the stands side rail. Straberrydaiquiri was nearly beay by Honimier in the race before where she "improved" by 20lbs for a run up the rail. In the race after the Guineas 1 horse drawn higher than 10 got into the top 8 in a 25 runner field. It's not just Jaquelins Quest that improved massively on the day ot was also the 3rd and 4th home too. The 1000 Guineas form is worthless, there is no other way of viewing it at this time. However second on Music Show's side is the favourite for teh Oaks and the Nell Gwynn form is working out really well. Clearly there was a huge draw bias and you write Music Show off at your peril.
Qudos for getting on Special Duty so early for the Guineas it was inspired. But championing her after two lucky wins is a little thin IMO. She isn't getting there, with horses close up that are either not very good or running at the wrong distance.
Qudos for getting on Special Duty so early for the Guineas it was inspired. But championing her after two lucky wins is a little thin IMO. She isn't getting there, with horses close up that are either not very good or running at the wrong distance.
lol sorry James didnt see your post above, I think the rating of Strawberry is open to debate expecially when the proximity of the second will have been part of the reasoning for lowering it's rating.
So did Gile Na Greine also improve 2 stone or so as well? Music Show had to go far earlier than Moore would have wanted because of the gap to the stands side and to be honest I'm amazed she held of Rumoush. As I say it's not just the demoted winners that have me questioning the Special Duty form it's the likes of Lady of The Desert (not a miler IMO), Gile Na Greine, Sent From heaven (good but not classic material).
I really hope they both meet in a fair race this season. Win or lose at least we'll know. I really believe Music Show to be the better horse but we won't know for a while yet.
So did Gile Na Greine also improve 2 stone or so as well? Music Show had to go far earlier than Moore would have wanted because of the gap to the stands side and to be honest I'm amazed she held of Rumoush. As I say it's not just the demoted winners that have me questioning the Special Duty form it's the likes of Lady of The Desert (not a miler IMO), Gile Na Greine, Sent From heaven (good but not classic material).
I really hope they both meet in a fair race this season. Win or lose at least we'll know. I really believe Music Show to be the better horse but we won't know for a while yet.
It's all still open to debate. I certainly wouldn't write off Music Show: as I said earlier, she's the one filly I would be wary of if she ever runs against Special Duty in the future. There's no way of knowing whether she would have won if she had been better drawn. Jacqueline's Quest and Gile Na Greine were relatively unexposed going into the Guineas (they had each had one disappointing race on unsuitably soft ground on their final juvenile start and JQ had then blown up on her reappearance in the Nell Gwyn), so I'm prepared to believe that they both showed significantly improved form in the Guineas. Sent From Heaven was already quite a smart filly, but probably about 7-9lbs below what would have been required to win an average Guineas: this year's Guineas cannot be rated all that highly on the bare form, so SFH may only have improved by about 3-4lbs from her Fillies' Mile form last year. In my opinion, the French Guineas form, although still a very unsatisfactory race (partly because it was more steadily run than the Poulains), has a more solid look to it than the Newmarket Guineas form.
Going back to the Dahlia Stakes result, I think it would be a mistake to assume that Strawberrydaiquiri ran to her very best form even allowing for the draw bias. She was making her seasonal debut and it's reasonable to assume that like some of Stoute's other older horses she ran some way below her very best (her win in last year's Atalanta Stakes). The reason Honimiere got so close was certainly the fact that she raced against the stands' rail, but it probably didn't make 20lbs worth of difference. Honimiere had posted a career-best effort a few weeks earlier at Kempton and she appears to have made a fair amount of improvement since last year. So I think it's reasonable to conclude that the draw made about 10lbs worth of difference, on the basis that the winner was not 100% straight on her seasonal debut and the runner-up is an improved performer (regardless of the evident draw bias).
In support of my claim that Strawberrydaiquiri probably needed the race, consider the seasonal debut performances of a number of Stoute's other older horses this year (especially the better class ones) such as Main Aim, Confront, Kingdom Of Fife and Golden Stream.
Going back to the Dahlia Stakes result, I think it would be a mistake to assume that Strawberrydaiquiri ran to her very best form even allowing for the draw bias. She was making her seasonal debut and it's reasonable to assume that like some of Stoute's other older horses she ran some way below her very best (her win in last year's Atalanta Stakes). The reason Honimiere got so close was certainly the fact that she raced against the stands' rail, but it probably didn't make 20lbs worth of difference. Honimiere had posted a career-best effort a few weeks earlier at Kempton and she appears to have made a fair amount of improvement since last year. So I think it's reasonable to conclude that the draw made about 10lbs worth of difference, on the basis that the winner was not 100% straight on her seasonal debut and the runner-up is an improved performer (regardless of the evident draw bias).
In support of my claim that Strawberrydaiquiri probably needed the race, consider the seasonal debut performances of a number of Stoute's other older horses this year (especially the better class ones) such as Main Aim, Confront, Kingdom Of Fife and Golden Stream.
I would agree that Special Duty has yet to prove herself a champion at three. But there are grounds for believing that she can showed improvement on the bare form of her two classic 'wins'. It will be fascinating to see how she gets on later in the season against the likes of Goldikova.
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