FRENCH 1000 GUINEAS Trends

The Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (the French equivalent of the 1000 Guineas) takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 16th May.

Trends for the past 10 years below:

AGE
Race for 3yos

BREEDING
Irish bred: 4-6-38
American bred: 3-4-21
British bred: 2-9-36
French bred: 1-1-31
UAE bred: 0-0-1
Irish and American bred horses (combined record of 7-10-59) have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 46.5% of the total runners
Speed in a horse’s pedigree seems key with only 1 of the 10 sires having won over further than a mile.
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in the Prix Morny (finished 62161221) (5 different sires)
6 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in the first 3 in the Prix De La Salamandre (only 3 separate sires)
9 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that ran in either the French or English 2000 Guineas
Zamindar has sired 3 winners and Kingmambo has sired two winners since 2000.

RECENT/PAST FORM
8 of 10 winners won last time out
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run that season
10 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days
6 of 10 winners had won at Longchamp (3 of 4 exceptions were having their first course start)
10 of 10 winners had had between 2 and 6 career starts
10 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 on all career starts
6 of 10 winners had won a group or listed race (2 exceptions placed in a listed race, other 2 exceptions won their maiden last time out)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
9 of 10 winners were born in Jan, Feb or March

OTHER RACES
Prix De La Grotte winner (Anna Salai): 8932214112 (3-4-10)
Prix De Marcel Boussac winner (Rosanara): 851214 (2-1-6)
Prix Imprudence winner (Joanna): 2851 (1-1-4)
Prix Du Calvados winner (Joanna): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix Finlande winner (Baine): 1 (1-0-1)
Prix La Camargo winner (Liliside): 0205 (0-1-4)
Prix Miesque winner (Lixirova): 74 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De Marcel Boussac, finishing 112
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix De La Grotte, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix finlande, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Imprudence, finishing 31

TRAINERS
Francois Rohaut (2-1-3) has saddled 2 winners and a second from his 3 runners in this.
Alain de Royal-Dupre (2-1-6) has won this twice, with 5 of his 6 runners making the first 4. Pascal Bary (2-1-7) has also gained 2 winners and a place in the past decade.
Andre Fabre (1-2-6), Aidan O'Brien (1-2-10), Jean-Claude Rouget (1-1-5) and John Gosden (1-0-6) have all trained one winner since 2000.
Alex Pantall (0-2-6) has seen 2 of his 6 runners make the frame.
British based trainers (1-3-29) have won just 1 running of this in the past 10 years from approximately 22.8% of the runners.
Irish trained runners (1-3-14) have also gained 1 win and 3 places from less than half the number of British-trained runners.

Draw
If you omit the one running of this race with less than 10 runners the draw stats read:
Horses drawn 1 to 4: 3-9-36
Horses drawn 5 to 8: 6-2-36
Horses drawn 9 to 12: 0-6-34
Horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-1-13
All 9 winners in renewals with 10+ runners were drawn 8 or lower.

PRICE
No strong trends on the prices though 5 of the last 10 winners went off at double-figure odds.
Favourites (2-5-10) have won this just twice in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.38. Both winning favourites were odds-on, two other odds-on favourites have been turned over in the past decade.

SUMMARY:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• American or Irish bred (sire emphasis on speed)
• Sire ran in the Morny, Salamandre and/or a 2000 Guineas
• Born in January, February or March
• Had 2 to 5 career starts and run this season
• Won a race in the past 35 days
• Never finished worse than 4th
• Won over 7F or 8F
• Course winner
• Won the Prix De La Grotte or Prix Marcel Boussac
• Trained by F Rohaut, P Bary or A de Royal-Dupre
• Drawn 8 or below