Fran Merida Joined: 24 Apr 08
Replies: 1100 16 May 10 14:23 
the stewards cant control what the dopey jockeys do, tbf.

Agree 100%. The jock obviously knew he had plenty of horse under him and panicked into getting a run. A bad mistake.

Today wasnt over further it was over a mile and Special Duty is the best mile filly in training simple as .. who is the bad loser here then.

They may be favourites on the day if you are skillful enough to find them early at big prices. They then have the strongest chance of winning. Picking 20/1 shots on the day is not clever it is 'hopeful'.

Hopefully people will keep giving good prices for her this is a good development. She has been the best horse in the race her last 2 runs but has been impeded. There is more to come as well she will go on progressing.

bearing in mind your first contribution on this thread was 10 minutes before the race, Kirk, what was the average price you got on Special Duty today and was it favourite when you backed it?

Cheers 

that doesn't:

1. make any sense
2. answer the question

Come on Kirk, play the game.
What's this 20/1 loser you speak of too?

We'll conclude that you backed her at 6/4 ten minutes before the race then, unless you'd like to tell us otherwise.

kirk st. moritz Joined: 04 Feb 07
Replies: 512 16 May 10 20:21   


Today wasnt over further it was over a mile and Special Duty is the best mile filly in training simple as .. who is the bad loser here then.

Until she meets the English Guineas field in a fair race then I'm afraid that is a bit of a sweeping statement. For the best mile filly in training she is "beating" some horses that don't look too good or are not proper milers by less than a length.

She is clearly a good horse but until she actually finishes first against the best horses in a fair race I think the jury is still out.

SD was not as good as Liliside today imv, she was a fortunate winner today, can't argue with the dq, but SD was not impeded in anyway by the winner.
Imo Music Show will prove to be the best filly over 8f this season.

[i]They may be favourites on the day if you are skillful enough to find them early at big prices. They then have the strongest chance of winning[/i]

What price did you back Special Duty today, Kirk?
How many minutes before the race did you back Special Duty?

that is a fair point about the ground and surpised not many have mentioned it tbh. Had it been GF and no draw bias that does not automatically mean the others would have beat her because she performs better on decent ground anyway, imo.

I don't understand why people would wish to crab Special Duty's form.  The 1000 Guineas was ruined as a proper race because of the obvious draw bias, but even so the form isn't at all bad.  The placed fillies are almost certainly much improved performers this year and pulled five lengths clear of the rest on the stands' side.  Runner-up Jacqueline Quest may have looked exposed on the form figures, but she was almost certainly over the top and/or hated the soft ground on her final juvenile start at Newbury and then badly needed the race on her seasonal debut this year in the Nell Gwyn: she was, in other words, relatively unexposed and had looked smart when winning her maiden by nine lengths last year.  The third (Gile Na Greine) is a highly regarded filly who was thrown in at the deep end on only her second racecourse appearance last year in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes (on heavy ground) and ran a respectable race on her comeback in April at a time when Bolger's horses weren't really firing.  The fourth (Sent From Heaven) had made steady if unspectacular progress in her four races last year and was unlucky not to finish a bit closer in the Fillies' Mile on her final start (just behind You'll Be Mine): she has clearly done very well from two to three and was prepared specially for the Guineas.  The 1000 Guineas form should not be taken literally as far as the high-drawn fillies are concerned, but I reckon the first four home are all smart fillies.

As far as the Pouliches form is concerned, there's no doubt that Special Duty did remarkably well to get so close, as she came from a long way back and once again showed a very good turn of foot.  Joanna and Rosanara (who looked unlucky) are smart fillies in their own right, and Lady Of The Desert returned to something like her best form (she put up a smart performance in last year's Lowther), so the form has a very solid look to it and the two Rohaut fillies are clearly much improved performers.

I wouldn't back any of the 1000 Guineas or Pouliches fillies to beat Special Duty in future.  She was champion two-year-old filly last year and appears to be the best of a moderate bunch so far this year.  The English/French Guineas double is a very rare feat and puts Special Duty in the same league as Ravinella and Miesque.  Three Group 1 'wins' so far and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her add to that tally.

nice posts , cant wait for deauville,would love to see the filly win impressively next time , spose the coronation was too soon , will catch up with you all in august, best wishes to all the believers

There is absolutely no doubt that Jacqueline Quest needed the race in the Nell Gwyn.  If you compare the race comments for the Nell Gwyn with those for the Guineas, it's clear that she 'blew up' in the Nell Gwyn: 'led halfway, ridden and headed over a furlong out, weakened inside final furlong'.  Those are classic race comments for a horse short of peak fitness in need of the race.  At that stage of the season (mid-April) a number of Henry's horses were badly in need of their first run of the season and some made dramatic improvement next time out (eg Moose Moran improved by 21lbs, Florentine Ruler also improved by 21lbs, according to Racing Post Ratings).  Jacqueline Quest improved by 23lbs, according to RPRs, from the Nell Gwyn to the Guineas: this is a big improvement, certainly, but not beyond the bounds of possibility, given that she patently blew up in the Nell Gwyn.  Henry knew that his horses were behind schedule, and following the disappointing efforts of Timepiece and Jacqueline Quest he decided to pull Aviate out of her intended trial in the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury.  Two weeks later Aviate was ready for her reappearance at Ascot.  If you genuinely think that Jacqueline Quest ran anywhere near her Nell Gwyn form in the Guineas, just consider the massive turnaround in form with Distinctive (nine lengths, to be precise).

We'll have to agree to disagree then.  Just because 10 of the 17 runners (59%) in the Guineas were at a significant disadvantage it doesn't necessarily follow that the stands' side form won't work out.  There is no way of knowing just how much difference the draw made (in terms of lengths) or whether Music Show would have been involved in the finish if she had been drawn low. 

Special Duty was beaten fair and square (by a head) on Sunday, but she came from a long way back and was finishing at least as fast as Rosanara in the last 50 yards: these two were certainly the strongest finishers, and I agree that Rosanara was unlucky (though I don't think she would necessarily have beaten Special Duty with a completely clear run).  To my eyes at least Special Duty, who only got into the clear about a furlong out, has at least as good a turn of foot as Rosanara (whose class was there for all to see in last year's Prix Marcel Boussac): they are both smart fillies over a mile, but I suspect that Rosanara (being by Sinndar out of a 10f winner) may prove even better over an extra couple of furlongs.  On fast ground over a mile I would certainly expect Special Duty to beat Rosanara, though they probably won't ever meet again over that trip.  I backed Rosanara for Sunday's race at 11/2 but also backed Special Duty late on when she drifted out to a massive 3/1 and bigger on Betfair shortly before the off - she is simply too smart a filly not to back her at those sorts of odds.

It's all about opinions and for what it's worth I would still expect Special Duty to beat any of the Guineas and Pouliches fillies over a mile on fast ground.  The only one that would worry me under such conditions is Music Show, as there's simply no way of knowing quite how much ground she lost because of her draw.  Clearly she was at a disadvantage of several lengths, but did it make a difference of 6½ lengths (the distance by which she was beaten)?  Special Duty herself was taken halfway across the course and would probably have won the race comfortably if she had been allowed to run unimpeded to the line.

I don't know how Rosanara has come out of Sunday's race.  She is in the Prix Saint-Alary next Sunday, but that will come too soon, so I guess her next race will be in either the Prix de Diane on 13 June or the Coronation Stakes on 18 June.  If they want to step her up to a mile and a half, she's in the Irish Oaks on 18 July.  My money would be on the Prix de Diane.

The Dahlia Stakes was an interesting result, but it should be noted that Strawberrydaiquiri's official rating (OR 113) is based on her win in last year's Listed Atalanta Stakes at Sandown and that the Racing Post Ratings suggest that she ran 9lbs below that form in the Dahlia Stakes.  Honimiere was officially rated 94 before the Dahlia Stakes, but if you accept that Strawberrydaiquiri ran 9lbs below her rating (which is, admittedly, just one organisation's opinion and far from exact science), then Honimiere ran 10lbs better than could have been expected (based on her official mark), which equates to about 4 or 5 lengths over 9f on yielding ground.  On that basis I'd be happy to estimate that the horses racing on the stands' side had an advantage of 4 or 5 lengths over those racing in the centre.

lol sorry James didnt see your post above, I think the rating of Strawberry is open to debate expecially when the proximity of the second will have been part of the reasoning for lowering it's rating.

So did Gile Na Greine also improve 2 stone or so as well? Music Show had to go far earlier than Moore would have wanted because of the gap to the stands side and to be honest I'm amazed she held of Rumoush. As I say it's not just the demoted winners that have me questioning the Special Duty form it's the likes of Lady of The Desert (not a miler IMO), Gile Na Greine, Sent From heaven (good but not classic material).

I really hope they both meet in a fair race this season. Win or lose at least we'll know. I really believe Music Show to be the better horse but we won't know for a while yet.

I would agree that Special Duty has yet to prove herself a champion at three.  But there are grounds for believing that she can showed improvement on the bare form of her two classic 'wins'.  It will be fascinating to see how she gets on later in the season against the likes of Goldikova.