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Is Eskendereya the real deal? Looking at Lucky was desparately unlucky at Santa Anita last time out but will he defo turn around the form with Sidneys Candy?
I would be genuinely interested to know what people think of Looking at Lucky and Sidneys Candy's chances are on dirt seeing as Santa Anita is pro ride.
Any outsdiers to consider?
I would be genuinely interested to know what people think of Looking at Lucky and Sidneys Candy's chances are on dirt seeing as Santa Anita is pro ride.
Any outsdiers to consider?
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Haven't been following the trials at all this year and really only getting to watch some of the video now.
Not bothering with synthetic form so the fave has to prove himself this year for me to consider backing him. He was a bit lucky to beat Nobles Promise in the Rebel and that ones performance in the Arkansas Derby over only 100m further was pretty disappointing.
OK he was badly hampered in the Santa Anita Derby but hard to think he'd have won anyway.
From my limited viewing I think I've eliminated Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Line of David and Nobles Promise.
Plenty more video to watch though!
Not bothering with synthetic form so the fave has to prove himself this year for me to consider backing him. He was a bit lucky to beat Nobles Promise in the Rebel and that ones performance in the Arkansas Derby over only 100m further was pretty disappointing.
OK he was badly hampered in the Santa Anita Derby but hard to think he'd have won anyway.
From my limited viewing I think I've eliminated Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Line of David and Nobles Promise.
Plenty more video to watch though!
do write your conclusion TJ. Save me watching the videos
My conclusion probably won't be worth much!
Can copy and paste the videos I do watch here though if that wasn't sarcasm :p
Santa Anita Derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljiJuqaKeKA
Arkansas Derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl0rH75Rnbo
09 Norfolk Stakes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJQ_K1o5EF8&feature=related
Rebel Stakes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVy3M2U4QDI
09 BC Juvenile
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIrRNJAyH2c
From the back button on one tab.
Can copy and paste the videos I do watch here though if that wasn't sarcasm :p
Santa Anita Derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljiJuqaKeKA
Arkansas Derby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cl0rH75Rnbo
09 Norfolk Stakes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJQ_K1o5EF8&feature=related
Rebel Stakes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVy3M2U4QDI
09 BC Juvenile
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIrRNJAyH2c
From the back button on one tab.
ELG posted this excellent site before which has all the replays of all the runners races in the build up, might find it handy:
http://bit.ly/dmtW8U
http://bit.ly/dmtW8U
That is extremely handy ben, thanks very much!
Will get properly stuck in tomorrow, really like what I've seen of Sidney's Candy so far but think I'll have to throw him out on the basis of Santa Anita form.
Will get properly stuck in tomorrow, really like what I've seen of Sidney's Candy so far but think I'll have to throw him out on the basis of Santa Anita form.
I've had a little on Looking At Lucky (before the bookies realised Eskedereya was out!) and also Awesome Act who deserves another chance after losing his shoe and being far too keen last time out, good luck with your picks ;)
Scanned the form in the pub earlier and ruled out the following (not to say I won't rule them back in later but... )
Lookin At Lucky
Stately Victor
Dean's Kitten
Make Music for Me
Paddy O'Prado
Jackson Bend
Mission Impazible
Discreetly Mine
Homeboykris
Sidney's Candy
Thats half the field :|
Lookin At Lucky
Stately Victor
Dean's Kitten
Make Music for Me
Paddy O'Prado
Jackson Bend
Mission Impazible
Discreetly Mine
Homeboykris
Sidney's Candy
Thats half the field :|
Ice Box is interesting when you think about how the race is going to shape up.
Probably 15 of them like to lead or sit off the leader, on the likely sloppy track surely they'll go too quick, burn themselves out and set it up for a closer.
Being drawn 2 shouldn't matter as he was 11th of 11 in his last race, a G1 win (10th of 10 and 3rd or 5 before that).
Good Beyer number, 2nd only to the filly Devil May Care.
12/1
Not got round to watching any of his races yet though.
They nearly all want to make the pace but I don't think I've ever seen one break as quick as Line of David, reckon it'll be him from 5 who makes it to the first turn first.
Amazing that the field have run more than 50 races between them as 3 year olds and not one of them has done the trip in this!
Probably 15 of them like to lead or sit off the leader, on the likely sloppy track surely they'll go too quick, burn themselves out and set it up for a closer.
Being drawn 2 shouldn't matter as he was 11th of 11 in his last race, a G1 win (10th of 10 and 3rd or 5 before that).
Good Beyer number, 2nd only to the filly Devil May Care.
12/1
Not got round to watching any of his races yet though.
They nearly all want to make the pace but I don't think I've ever seen one break as quick as Line of David, reckon it'll be him from 5 who makes it to the first turn first.
Amazing that the field have run more than 50 races between them as 3 year olds and not one of them has done the trip in this!
get back to work TJ i-e watch the races & come up with a shortlist soon.....please
I'm on Icebox
+ Triple Crown Breeding...Pulpit out of a Tabasco Cat mate..smoooth
+ Florida Derby winner
+ Nick Zito trained.
+ improved with every run this season...seems to be more mature and tougher than anything else in the field...check out his 1/2 miles times improving
+ sizzling track work
+ Jose Lezcano stays on board....
+ Race will set up for a deep closer with 8 out and out front runners in the line up.
Think he's the one.
+ Triple Crown Breeding...Pulpit out of a Tabasco Cat mate..smoooth
+ Florida Derby winner
+ Nick Zito trained.
+ improved with every run this season...seems to be more mature and tougher than anything else in the field...check out his 1/2 miles times improving
+ sizzling track work
+ Jose Lezcano stays on board....
+ Race will set up for a deep closer with 8 out and out front runners in the line up.
Think he's the one.
synthetic / turf horse...meh
I dont like the Bluegrass anymore since keeneland went polytrack.
the two outsiders people are talking is the two from the Arkansas Derby...Nobles Promise and Super Saver :o
I dont like the Bluegrass anymore since keeneland went polytrack.
the two outsiders people are talking is the two from the Arkansas Derby...Nobles Promise and Super Saver :o
1. Looking at Lucky
I don't trust Santa Anita form, but he showed he can do it on dirt in Oaklawn. Horror draw, will need to be much the best to win. Not for me at the price.
2. Ice Box
Running style should suit the race. Plenty of stamina in his pedigree but maybe there are class doubts. Still shortlisted though.
3. Nobles Promise
Unlikely to get the trip.
4. Super Saver
Ran a cracker behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, don't know if he wants to get his head in front though. Calvin Borel rides. Seems to be improving rapidly. Pedigree loaded with stamina and class. Shortlist.
5. Line of David
Likely to get in a speed duel with I think Conveyance. Hard to rule out completely given the way he kept finding in Arkansas but won't get the easy lead here so I'll pass.
6. Stately Victor
Will be held up off the pace so if the race pans out like I think it will he may have a chance. Never raced on dirt though so I'm passing. Looks like he should get the trip.
7. American Lion
Should be just off the pace. Never run in a G1, doesn't look classy enough. Seemed to improve for the switch from synthetic to dirt though.
8. Dean's Kitten
Busy 2 year old career before finishing 6th beaten a couple of lengths in the Juvenile turf. Didn't seem to be competitive on dirt as a 2 yo and only run on turf and synthetics since. Shouldn't be good enough.
9. Make Music for Me
Won't stay, hasn't raced on dirt and well held by Lookin at Lucky, Stately Victor and Nobles Promise.
10. Paddy O'Prado
Hasn't raced on dirt, sire and dam both turf runners. Held by Stately Victor.
11. Devil May Care
A filly in the Derby? Would want to be a Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta to win it, I don't see it. Ran all over the place when the jockey went for the whip last time. Blinkers may help. Best Beyer number in the field I think (100), might be interesting at a bigger price but not for me.
12. Conveyance
Will go off too fast, won't stay.
13. Jackson Bend
May not stay and absolutely dominated last twice by former fav Eskendereya. Very consistent. Hard to think that he can be good enough.
14. Mission Impazible
Louisana Derby form doesn't look great but he got up well at the end. May be running on but doubt he's good enough to win.
15. Discreetly Mine
Likely to get involved in the speed duel, not likely to be good enough.
16. Awesome Act
Looked a beast in the Gotham, traveled like a dream in the Wood, don't think he stayed. Think Jackson Bend will beat him again.
17. Dublin
Don't think he'll stay and a lot of the field have already beaten him. Don't fancy him.
18. Backtalk
No chance.
19. Homeboykris
No chance of staying the trip.
20. Sidney's Candy
Unbeaten, should stay. From a bad draw might not be able to get to the lead but should be handy. His win of the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive and I'm breaking my rule of not including horses that haven't run on dirt for him. Shortlisted.
I don't trust Santa Anita form, but he showed he can do it on dirt in Oaklawn. Horror draw, will need to be much the best to win. Not for me at the price.
2. Ice Box
Running style should suit the race. Plenty of stamina in his pedigree but maybe there are class doubts. Still shortlisted though.
3. Nobles Promise
Unlikely to get the trip.
4. Super Saver
Ran a cracker behind Line of David in the Arkansas Derby, don't know if he wants to get his head in front though. Calvin Borel rides. Seems to be improving rapidly. Pedigree loaded with stamina and class. Shortlist.
5. Line of David
Likely to get in a speed duel with I think Conveyance. Hard to rule out completely given the way he kept finding in Arkansas but won't get the easy lead here so I'll pass.
6. Stately Victor
Will be held up off the pace so if the race pans out like I think it will he may have a chance. Never raced on dirt though so I'm passing. Looks like he should get the trip.
7. American Lion
Should be just off the pace. Never run in a G1, doesn't look classy enough. Seemed to improve for the switch from synthetic to dirt though.
8. Dean's Kitten
Busy 2 year old career before finishing 6th beaten a couple of lengths in the Juvenile turf. Didn't seem to be competitive on dirt as a 2 yo and only run on turf and synthetics since. Shouldn't be good enough.
9. Make Music for Me
Won't stay, hasn't raced on dirt and well held by Lookin at Lucky, Stately Victor and Nobles Promise.
10. Paddy O'Prado
Hasn't raced on dirt, sire and dam both turf runners. Held by Stately Victor.
11. Devil May Care
A filly in the Derby? Would want to be a Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta to win it, I don't see it. Ran all over the place when the jockey went for the whip last time. Blinkers may help. Best Beyer number in the field I think (100), might be interesting at a bigger price but not for me.
12. Conveyance
Will go off too fast, won't stay.
13. Jackson Bend
May not stay and absolutely dominated last twice by former fav Eskendereya. Very consistent. Hard to think that he can be good enough.
14. Mission Impazible
Louisana Derby form doesn't look great but he got up well at the end. May be running on but doubt he's good enough to win.
15. Discreetly Mine
Likely to get involved in the speed duel, not likely to be good enough.
16. Awesome Act
Looked a beast in the Gotham, traveled like a dream in the Wood, don't think he stayed. Think Jackson Bend will beat him again.
17. Dublin
Don't think he'll stay and a lot of the field have already beaten him. Don't fancy him.
18. Backtalk
No chance.
19. Homeboykris
No chance of staying the trip.
20. Sidney's Candy
Unbeaten, should stay. From a bad draw might not be able to get to the lead but should be handy. His win of the Santa Anita Derby was very impressive and I'm breaking my rule of not including horses that haven't run on dirt for him. Shortlisted.
shortlist
1
2
4
5
17
Haven't decided how i will play yet
Good luck
1
2
4
5
17
Haven't decided how i will play yet
Good luck
Any idea why Jackson Bend's odds have been cut across the board today? 33 into 14
Last Updated: April 30, 2010 11:59pm EST
Pool Total: $557,268.03
Number Name Trainer Morning Line Current Odds
1 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 3 9
2 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 10 11
3 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 21
4 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 15 7
5 Line of David John Sadler 30 14
6 Stately Victor Michael Maker 30 16
7 American Lion Eoin Harty 30 24
8 Dean's Kitten Michael Maker 50 18
9 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 50 25
10 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans 20 11
11 Devil May Care Todd Pletcher 10 10
12 Conveyance Bob Baffert 12 25
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 15 21
14 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher 20 24
15 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 30 40
16 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 10 14
17 Dublin D. Lukas 12 21
18 Backtalk Thomas Amoss 50 21
19 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 17
20 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 5 11
Pool Total: $557,268.03
Number Name Trainer Morning Line Current Odds
1 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 3 9
2 Ice Box Nicholas Zito 10 11
3 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 12 21
4 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 15 7
5 Line of David John Sadler 30 14
6 Stately Victor Michael Maker 30 16
7 American Lion Eoin Harty 30 24
8 Dean's Kitten Michael Maker 50 18
9 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 50 25
10 Paddy O'Prado Dale Romans 20 11
11 Devil May Care Todd Pletcher 10 10
12 Conveyance Bob Baffert 12 25
13 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 15 21
14 Mission Impazible Todd Pletcher 20 24
15 Discreetly Mine Todd Pletcher 30 40
16 Awesome Act Jeremy Noseda 10 14
17 Dublin D. Lukas 12 21
18 Backtalk Thomas Amoss 50 21
19 Homeboykris Richard Dutrow, Jr. 50 17
20 Sidney's Candy John Sadler 5 11
Have backed Ice Box, Super Saver and Sidney's Candy.
Thinking of adding Lookin At Lucky and Awesome Act to those 3 for combination trifectas.
Thinking of adding Lookin At Lucky and Awesome Act to those 3 for combination trifectas.
I'm reasonably invested in L@L antepost but think the draw could kill him. I think your 3 picks are solid. Ice Box looks like the value to me. I have a sneaky feeling about Dublin coming in e/w tho...
Anyone watching this link? They seem to have taken advice from the BBC Royal Ascot coverage, all I see is them talking about hats etc.
Bo Rail on now. What a **king legend! I love this guy.
Having a small play on Stately Victor in addition to LAL and Awesome Act, was impressive winning the Blue Grass which looked a decent race going into it.
GL Ben, no bet for me. No idea about any of these and cannot lay a fav at 7/1. I hope Borel wins though.
If I was laying it would be the filly :-s
Doesn't look in the same league as the likes of Rachel and Eight Belles, I know she got the Beyer rating but never been sure on them, both the second and third in her last race got stuffed in the Oaks by Blind Luck, who does look a good horse.
Doesn't look in the same league as the likes of Rachel and Eight Belles, I know she got the Beyer rating but never been sure on them, both the second and third in her last race got stuffed in the Oaks by Blind Luck, who does look a good horse.
ELG's sweet on him too, we said initially he might be one for the Belmont but the pace of the race could change that, hopefully there won't be any hard luck stories.
I saw Borel riding a race the other day from the front, every furlong 12 seconds and just rode them to death. Fantastic pace riding
Small win only backs, Nobles Promise and Stately Victor
LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111
poor horse battered from Borel.
same happened with Rachel and looked what's happened with her.
same happened with Rachel and looked what's happened with her.
"It never gets old Sweetie!" This guy is bringing tears to my eyes!
:o
icebox straight into a fecking wall.
wd to calvin...
icebox straight into a fecking wall.
wd to calvin...
Great thread . Put me on the winner after a few minutes reading. Eased the pain of 2000 guineas & million of hours spend on it.
ty
Really enjoyed the race. Absolutely fantastic ride from Calvin, he is well able to use that whip though!
Lookin At Lucky never got into it, the draw did beat him in the end.
Very disappointed with how Sidney's Candy ran, went from 2nd to 15th in a matter of strides on the final turn.
Ice Box came from miles back, probably the real hard luck story of the race, he did get a relatively clear run though.
Paddy O'Prado also ran a cracker that I didn't see coming.
Awesome Act ran a shocker, never sighted.
You do wonder how the race will work out.
Maybe Nobles Promise might be the one for the Preakness?
Really enjoyed the race. Absolutely fantastic ride from Calvin, he is well able to use that whip though!
Lookin At Lucky never got into it, the draw did beat him in the end.
Very disappointed with how Sidney's Candy ran, went from 2nd to 15th in a matter of strides on the final turn.
Ice Box came from miles back, probably the real hard luck story of the race, he did get a relatively clear run though.
Paddy O'Prado also ran a cracker that I didn't see coming.
Awesome Act ran a shocker, never sighted.
You do wonder how the race will work out.
Maybe Nobles Promise might be the one for the Preakness?
Did you see how fast they went early, no wonder Sidney's Candy was fcked before they turned in!
Actually watch the overhead very closely from about 9.16
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhe**U4&feature=related
Ice Box was very very unlucky, ran into a wall when had he got out in time probably would have won.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYUQhe**U4&feature=related
Ice Box was very very unlucky, ran into a wall when had he got out in time probably would have won.
yep...ran into a pack of horses all on the retreat.
Prekness will be interesting..have to wait and see who actually turns up.
tried and trust route for the Zito horses is - skip the prekness, then belmont and travers.
Prekness will be interesting..have to wait and see who actually turns up.
tried and trust route for the Zito horses is - skip the prekness, then belmont and travers.
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