Canford Cliffs 12/1

Another way of looking at it is ..... take Dick Turpin out of yesterday's race and you have Canford Cliffs as as 7 length winner in a fast time.

But when he hit the front ar Royal Ascot, Deauville, and Newbury he went left until he could not get any more left [Google "Canford Cliffs" and select more / video on the toolbar].

If he is drawn high in the Guineas he might cause the mother of all interference.

CC to be buried in the 2000G quote from Hannon on the RP website.

kincsem is right, if they are looking to bury him that will be a problem, the best hope is to get the rail.

SNA, and CC buried at the back of the field, for something else to nick the race !

Wont Awzaan also need holding up ?

Coventry winners 1/30 in the 2000. Up against it. Agree with Cry, should be 20/1 ish

Awzaan .... see how the 2nd place horse finishes in the Middle Park (from 0:55 to 1:10)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBhrciJ7668&feature=related

If Awzaan and CC both drift left like that then it could be interesting

Dont understand why anyone thinks it didnt stay yesterday.

^^^was it you with the white stick at Newbury?

NO

Please state evidence why you feel did not stay?

Because imo his veering to across the course is when he hits the wall so to speak the same thing we saw last year in France,6f is his trip.

You don't think it was the ground PD?

OK so when went 6L clear of rest it didnt stay

and to be clear, I think it is and will be a sprinter, however I 100% think it stayed 7F fine in both races you refer to.

redal,The ground may be a small factor in yesterdays race but the way he runs he is a pure speed horse, if you see the Morny he looks hard at it I really do think its as far as he can go he could get a mile but only in GR2 class I reckon

I would have thought it was a bit premature to bury him. He might make a sprinter yet, and might be still worth a few bob at stud.

Saturdat 17 April, 2010, Racing Post
Richard Hannon: "If we did not have Canford Cliffs, we's be more than happy to claim Dick Turpin as our number one Guineas contender. He was a big two-year-old and has really blossomed through the winter, filling out in all the right places. Forget his last two runs at the backend, he is far better that that and he has been working well this spring."

however I 100% think it stayed 7F fine in both races you refer to.
The Prix Morny is over 6f!not7

Was that before or after the race?

The Hannon quote I mean.

cryoftruth 18 Apr 19:38
I would have thought it was a bit premature to bury him. He might make a sprinter yet, and might be still worth a few bob at stud.

I agree I do think he will be a classy sprinter I don't think he can win a GR1 over a mile GR2 yes maybe I would look at him as a poss'stallion myself.................who said to bury him?

it was before.

I meant it stayed in both races you referred to. If other RH horse wa snot in field yesterday it would now be less than 2-1 for guineas

I agree Soap.Whilst I don't think he'll win a Guineas I would still be scared of his turn of foot.I thought he got the 7F trip perfectly well yesterday and the Hannon camp are no fools.

Hannon camp are no fools.

Your dead right...............thats why Hannon JR said he shows so much speed at home a mile could be to far.

Dick Turpin likely to go for the Irish 2000, 10-1 looks a fair price.

So following through that line of thought Prima they shouldn't run the colt in the 2000G

That is up to them and the owner,run him in the guineas all day the result will be the same.............beaten.

He won the Coventry stakes in approx 74 seconds. The Morny was run in approx 68 seconds. That is a massive disparity. It must be one of the sharpest 6f courses in Europe. If he was a pure speedball he wouldn't have been struggling to keep up there - unless he wasn't exceptional. If he's not exceptional, Hannon's less of a judge than he should be after 40 years as a top trainer.

Remember Hannon saying all the same stuff about Rock City?this horse fits that mould all over again,

Rock City was pretty good wasn't he?

Yes so can CC, I reckon his form line will be about the same as RC.

Canford cliff will definitely stay the mile based on his pedigree. His dams sire has produced group 1 winners over 1.5 miles. The front 2 in the market have come through a 2yo derby trial, were as this fella has shown serious gears against guineas types. If hughesy gives him cover close to the pace, he must have a serious chance. He certainly shouldn't be 25/1

If he turned up apparently hale and hearty on the day I think a price somehwere around the 12/1 mark would be value. Canford just looks nothing like a sprinter to me (contrast with Arcano) but the greater worry seems to be this tendency to drift left again- going on what Hughes and Hannon said post race that's got them rather stumped

If you watch Canford Cliffs in the Coventry (Google / more on toolbar/video) you will see in the early part of the race he was running straight in the middle of the course but at the same time he was facing left. As soon as he got clear he went left.
If he ever runs on a clockwise course it might be comical.

Drawn 1 in the Guineas he could be interesting running all the way with a rail on his left.
Drawn double figures it could be carnage for those on his left hitting the dip.

Will the stalls be in the middle of the track like last year?

Has been the trend last few yrs.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, sounds like a duck, IT'S A SODDING SPRINTER AND WILL PULL TOO HARD IN THE GUINEAS IF HELD UP. Hannon will end up with a Dutch Art on his hands.

I think he will be happy with a place like Dutch Art in the GNS.
Many a top class sprinter have made their mark after failing over 7f/mile
Green Desert
Ajdal
Mozart
Stravinsky
Habibti
Dayjur
spring to mind (not the cumani horse)

Maybe, but would he be happy with a horse that couldn't do the business when returned to his natural trip because he'd been stretched out to a mile?

pedrobob 18 Apr 13:05

interesting to hear Hughsie say that getting a bit lazy at home

Lazy, or slower? ;)

Should accept it right now and line the horse up for the Duke of York, then the Golden Jubillee and July Cup - just as my favourite ever flat horse Owington did after getting beat in the Greenham.

i like the horse and he obviously has talent, bit in my opinion he won't have the stamina required for the guineas.. he won the coventry stakes like a sprinter, just blitzed them.. and whilst the form with xtension (fairly useful horse) is good, i don't think canford is as good as first thought.. for me he should run in the big 6f and 7f races.. probably find a royal ascot race for him.. his tendancy to hang under pressure is a sure sign that he is uncomfortable once he gets past 6 or 7f... hannon wont be to dissapointed as dick turpin stayed on well to win.. on a different note did anybody see that hannon 2yr old filly win the other day? funky lady... it looks set for a good season.. and will get better with every run..

when horses dont get the trip they fade they dont hang .
he hung at ascot as well over 6 f are you trying to say he doesnt get 6f
either i think not .
the reason he has hung in all 3 starts is simple he hates fast ground .
by tagula out of a marju mare he was never going to want anything
else but easy ground.

if there is no cut in the gound he can stay at home on guineas day.

I am of the view, having seen the race twice, that he weakened before the end of the Morny. It wasn't as if the other 2 produced an amazing turn of foot to beat him, but Canford Cliffs seemed just unable to keep up the sound gallop at the end of a fst ground 7 furlong race.
Of course it was said he wasn't quite right that day and the layn preacher agrgues very well that he needs cut in the ground. However the trouble with the argument is that a mile on soft takes a lot more stamina than a mile on faster going, and on soft ground the stamina of Elusive Pimernel and SNA will be very very hard to beat.

croy you make a good point about the mile on softish ground.
i have no idea if he would stay or not but i think if ther had been some cut in the ground in the greenham he would have ran out an easy 2/3 lengths winner. all im saying is if its fast at n/ket he has no chance
and if its softish his chances will improve.
if you remember back to last season hannon /hughes were both saying how paco boy needed soft ground and they were way out.
i feel they are making the same mistake with canford by keeping
running him on fast ground.

figgis, what sort of time fig you have for Sat and how compare with CC's Coventry win?

Hi Ped, I have him 2lbs lower than his Coventry win, how do you rate it?

Had CC on about the same figure as well. I thought he ran a big figure at Ascot, so the Greenham still pretty decent for a 3yo.... and well clear of the other trial winners such as Elusive Pimpernel.

Hence CC may have been denigrated a bit much for his performance at Newbury. If he were to come on 10-12lbs for that run, would be a serious player at Newmarket.... if he stays.

On the other hand, a bit worried that the figures suggest that's as good as he is, and hasn't improved from Ascot last June.

Yeah I'm taking the view that he's just not gone on from the Coventry, maybe he'll improve later on when put back to sprint trips. Must say I never really fancied him anyway, I'm a bit negative about these Hannon speedy types, seen a lot of them over the years.

Greenham times and going 1990-2010

Year___Horse___________Time____Ground______2000 Guineas

2010___Dick Turpin________82.72____Good________
2007___Major Cadeaux____83.66____Good/Firm___6th [1]
2002___Redback_________83.84____Good/Firm___3rd [2]
1995___Celtic Swing______84.31____Good________2nd [3]
2003___Muqbil___________84.48____Good/Firm___12th [4]
1999___Enrique__________85.19____Good/Firm___2nd
2006___Red Clubs________85.69____Good________12th
1997___Yalaietanee_______86.07____Good/Firm___4th in French 2000
1991___Bog Trotter_______86.49____Good________12th
2004___Salford City_______86.97____Good________8th
2008___Paco Boy_________87.14____Soft________7th in French 2000
2009___Vocalised_________87.81____Soft________10th in French 2000
1990___Rock City_________88.22____Good________4th
1988___Zelphi____________89.12____Good________
2005___Indesatchel_______89.24____Good/Soft___2nd in French 2000
1996___Danehill Dancer____90.18____Good/Soft___6th
1993___Inchinor__________90.38____Good_______6th
1994___Turtle Island______90.89____Good/Soft___2nd in French 2000
2001___Munir____________91.64____Good/Soft___6th
1989___Zayyani__________91.72____Good/Soft___8th
1992___Lion Cavern_______92.04____Good/Soft___3rd in French 2000 [5]
1998___Victory Note_______93.27____Heavy____1st in French 2000

[1] Dutch Art was 2nd in the Greenham, 3rd in the 2000 Guineas.
[2] Beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Rock Of Gibraltar, Hawk Wing.
[3] Celtic Swing won the Racing Post Trophy over 8f as a 2-y-o so was certain to get a mile.
[4] Zafeen was 2nd in the Greenham, and 2nd in the 2000 Guineas.
[5] Rodrigo De Triano was 4th in the Greenham, won the 2000 Guineas.

Wollow won the Greenham and 2000 Guineas in 1976.

The time alone looks impressive, but if you take the time for the fillies trial, that would be in the 3rd spot for fastest time.

push 21 Apr 17:28
The time alone looks impressive, but if you take the time for the fillies trial, that would be in the 3rd spot for fastest time.

I don't understand your comment. These were the times at Newbury.

1:30___8___97.76___12.22
2:00___12_150.58___12.55
2:35___8___96.98___12.12
3:05___7___83.80___11.97 ...... fillies .... Fred Darling [Puff]
3:40___7___82.72___11.82 .......colts.....Greenham [Dick Turpin]
4:15___11_143.27___13.02
4:50___8___98.01___12.25
5:20___10_126.41___12.64

Well I still fancy him. :)

Same here JC, Good ground and a inside draw will do(with Hopefully Elusive even lower)

Had your meeting with the clerk yet zil ?

Not yet mate, they should be taking place in May/June.......

Writey o. :) Good Luck.

I will copy and paste marmites alternative take on Canford ina momento.

TREMENDOUS GUINEAS TRIAL BY CANFORD CLIFFS :0


I seem to have been watching a different race to everybody else judged by the general reaction to the Greenham Stakes. They all now seem to be dismissing CANFORD CLIFFS (41) as a Guineas prospect following his half length loss to stablemate DICK TURPIN (41).

As I see it Canford Cliffs actually put up a tremendous trial for the Guineas. He set a really strong pace and quickened most impressively to go three lengths clear before the furlong pole then threw the race away by diving across the track just as the brilliant Raven's Pass had done in the Craven Stakes a couple of years earlier.

The clock shows just how smart an effort the first two put up.

The time was much the quickest of the two day meeting and 1.08 seconds quicker than that of the Fred Darling Stakes over the same distance. In fact it was the fastest Greenham Stakes of all time. Only one three year old has ever run seven furlongs faster at Newbury and that was the Group 1 sprinter Three Points who did so with the aid of a tailwind.

The way that Canford Cliffs quickened up was most impressive. It enabled him to cover the last three furlongs 1.5 seconds faster than the fillies managed in the Fred Darling. He was really moving.

This was a serious Group 1 performance by both Richard Hannon's colts.

I just don't understand why so many people are now dismissing Canford Cliffs as a sprinter, just as they did with Raven's Pass after he lost the Craven in similar fashion. He's always looked sure to get a mile to me. And I predicted he'd probably lose the Greenham last season because he's such a big horse and must be hard to get fully fit at home.

If he hadn't dived across the course Canford Cliffs would have won by about a length and a half I reckon and clocked a truly sensational time. I have to give him a huge shot of winning the 2000 Guineas on this run and am amazed the bookies have pushed him all the way out to 12-1.

Previously I'd noted that Dick Turpin looked built for seven furlongs or a mile. This big, handsome colt proved that here by coming off a searching pace to catch a runner up that was really motoring in the closing stages.

I don't know why Dick Turpin ran below his best in his last two starts of 2009. But he's clearly back to the form which saw him dominate his rivals in his first four starts.

My ratings suggest Richard Hannon is right to say Canford Cliffs is the best horse he's ever trained. But they also say Dick Turpin is a very smart horse in his own right, one that Hannon can surely place to win a Group 1 this season.

Kincsem, Fillies race over 7f 83.80 seconds that time would be the 3rd fastest on your chart for times if compared to those recorded by the Greenham winners.

^ OK. I get it. I didn't understand.
That would suggest the conditions were very fast, although ground was "good". Was there a following wind?

A few minutes ago I tried to bet €250 win at 12/1 Canford Cliffs with Paady Poower, but they only allowed €192.50 x 12/1 = €2,502.

Or the fillies in the race were pretty good.
Good luck with your bet. At least you get a better price now after he finished 2nd at the weekend.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGq0RZUps0w

Canford Cliffs ran out of steam at about 6f and the jockey allowed him coast the last 100 yards.

Changed my mind. Going with Mordin. Basis: Two pull well clear of the remainder after a 200m struggle. He may not win but he'll smash SNA.

kinscem the going was not good it was changed to good to firm.

Charlton2005 21 Apr 21:40

Changed my mind. Going with Mordin. Basis: Two pull well clear of the remainder after a 200m struggle. He may not win but he'll smash SNA.


Pretty much my view now.

Good stuff H, especially at the prices. WD with POS today.

:)

And you mate ;)

^thanks. The Racing Post stills says good. Probably the time tells the story (firm).

When I was a regular at The Curragh the senior jockeys would tell the officials after the first race what the going really was, and they would announce a change.

Despite having a bet on CC at 12/1 I think he will fade. He is good for 6f and I hope the Greenham will bring him on a bit, but I suspect 8f is just a bit too far.
I can't have St Nicholas Abbey. One of the other Aidan O'Brien nags might surprise (not for the first time.)

Dick Turpin looked like he will stay 1 mile, 10-1 Irish Guineas ?

If you look at that video (see above) Dick Turpin was a few lengths ahead of CC a hundred yards past the post (momentum). On good ground or better my guess is 8f is ok for him. Dick Turpin is still left in the English 2000 I think (probably as a precaution.)

Look at Aidanobrien.com for comments on Steinbeck. He says he is kept for the Irish 2000 Guineas and is training very well.

I know, but what price is he ? you dont want to back him anti post , may as well wait for the day .

Good old Mordin ;)

Charlton2005 21 Apr 21:40


Changed my mind. Going with Mordin. Basis: Two pull well clear of the remainder after a 200m struggle. He may not win but he'll smash SNA.




agreed

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL NEEDS TO DO A LOT MORE

ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (34) looked good when coming right away from his field in the closing stages of the Craven. But there's no way I can interpret the time of the race to say it was a Group class performance. He ran a much slower time than Sri Putra in the Earl Of Sefton on the same card and only came home three fifths of a second faster over the last three furlongs despite running against a slower early pace over a shorter distance.

I guess all Elusive Pimpernel could do was win clearly. But I'm not enthused about his chances for the 2000 Guineas on this effort.

My ratings suggest Richard Hannon is right to say Canford Cliffs is the best horse he's ever trained. But they also say Dick Turpin is a very smart horse in his own right, one that Hannon can surely place to win a Group 1 this season

I like Mordin but that last statement tells us all we need to know about some of his time ratings.

why though?

Dick Turpin's form is about a stone below what's usually required to win a Group 1, in this country anyway. Rather than accept that Canford Cliffs' performance wasn't that great, Mordin has elevated the performance of Dick Turpin. Personally, I don't know how anyone can say CC is the best horse Hannon has trained, when Paco Boy is still fresh in the memory.

but dont u think the time in the greenham was actually very fast? i just wonder if canford cliffs will kill them off up the stands rail like he did in the coventry. i know what you mean about mordin although my respect rose for him after the cheltenham festival.

i just think purely at the prices, you wont get rich backing 6-4 shots in classic races full stop, so for me that rules out backing st nicholas abbey, elusive pimpernel seems nothing special on the clock, besides theres no reason why he'll even beat the favourite, and the only other one to show some brilliance is canford cliffs, so at 12-1 he'll do for me

m.p if theres no cut in the ground rip your ticket up.

id be just as worried about his draw. Very low would be a big advantage.

I must admit to liking Mordin and I hope he's right as I took some 16s after the Coventry where he won also at 16s for me. So I am biased.
I think tlp is right in that he needs a bit of cut and that then brings stamina into play. Some people on here whom I respect like jamesp and ben10 are adamant he won't stay and they know better than me. Fast ground should help him but I think CC will go best on ground the softer side of good, that's why I think he hung so badly at Newbury. The forecast doesn't look hopeful.
As I say I hope he wins but have a lot of doubts now. However, Marmite Man has proved many wrong in his time so we'll wait and see.

mordin is very rarely wrong when it comes to issues of stamina in my experience

MP, the time in itself was very fast but I reckon conditions were fast on the straight that day.

actually you are right about mordin raising the performance of another horse to suit his needs. a primary example of that was the dante last year when because he fancied black bear island for the derby, a race where they all finished in a heap was intepreted as the best dante for 15 years and the first ten home were all group one horses :^0

We all get it wrong sometimes. Times aren't always easy to interpret and it only takes one of your standard times to be wrong to completely screw up your ratings. I'm pretty sure Mordin has got it wrong here though.

TimeforM rated dick Turpin 111 without a "p" for improvement lasr year. I don't really see there is any merit in raising his rating much, if at all for Saturday's win. The Greenham looked a very modest contest aside from the first 2 in the betting and Arcano never showed up.

I like Mordin's articles as they are very well researched and interesting, but to describe the second defeat in a row, and the second time Canford Cliffs has drifted right across the track as a "best 2000 Guineas trial in the history of racing" or whatever is a bit bewildering. Its not as if the time analysis stands much scrutiny either. The fast last furlong comapred to the fillies just mean that the fillies' race had a faster early pace and slower enbd to the race. The fact that the fillies' race was, in fact the third fastest Greenham ever also means that the course was especially condusive to fast times, unless you are to argue that the finest 2 Guineas trials in history have happened to both have been run at Newbury last Friday.

Why are the Hannons waiting until the Guineas to find out if CC needs holding up ? Clutching at straws imo . Horse has not shown form to win a 2000 gns even if it stays . There have been just as immpressive winners of the Coventry who didnt amount to much , and thats the horses best bit of form . Pulls too hard to be anything other than a sprinter . Hangs because something is hurting it ( maybe ground ) and time is for people in jail . Speed figures are relevant , but I have yet to see time win a race , it is just a small part of the selection process . Mordin like all stataticians is a manipulator , like him , but no doubt moves the goalposts when necessary . So to sum up 12/1 is a joke price on the evidence of the racecourse , but then todays bookmakers are a joke .

The best time performance on that card without a doubt was by Harbinger imo, as the round course was riding much slower than the straight. Should easily pick up a Group 2 or maybe even a weakish Group1.

Mordin has given CC and DT higher ratings (41) than those achieved by STS last year and HTN the year before (40) which suggests they may be inflated somewhat.

EP gets a similar rating to his RPT rating.

Either CC or DT should hose up...........IF......Nick is right.

Knowing Nick he will probably tip Arcano or something as daft for the race. Use his race reading DONT follow his tips.

Fencing Master is a most interesting runner for me. Ran Green, gets a rating of 37.

Which horses qualify on the "nice sort" comment this year?

^ arcano is a nonrunner

This one is a real puzzler. I fancied Canford Cliffs for the guineas but I must admit I was dissapointed that he got beat at Newbury. Nick has a very diverse way of interpretating a race so it was interesting to read his post race analysis. I hope he is right but he certainly flys in the face of what the general consensus of opinion normally is. Hey Ho !!

flying in the face of the general consensus of opinion

...is a great way of doing things and usually rewards with generous odds :)

stays.

Prima Donna my white stick seems to do better than your expert eyes [;)]

Didn't somebody on here last year lay Win Only a bet about CC winning any Group 1 this year?

I nearly did but managed to talk myself out of it, thank god!

Okay this is one that looks a bit silly now, especially since CC appears to be the champion miler. I got this horse entirely wrong. After the 2000 Guineas I was beginning to wonder, because he finished thrid there despite pulling too hard. However the key has been to get him to settle and produce all his speed at the end. He is now a top miler and Mordin may be right, he may end uop getting 10 furlongs by the end of the season.

Very well done to Hannons and their team.