Grand National 2011 - The Midnight Club

Hard to say Mac this far out, certainly wouldn't surprise me, as you say could be the type to be aimed at it. 33/1 a bit skinny at this stage.

Was fav for the 4 miler at one stage, surprised me to see him line up in the jewson

Aye, I was surprised to see him in Jewsons also.

Agree 33/1 is skinny but I asked 3 6 5 if they would give me a price, as they go 5places. They put up 50/1 which is fair enough, so I've had a wee bet.

From Willie Mullins Stable Tour in OJA

The Midnight Club: He won over fences at Clonmel before running well at both Cheltenham and Punchestown. He has been bought by Mrs Ricci during the summer and we are going to aim him at the good staying handicaps with races like The Irish or even The English National possibilities. A natural jumper, he does stay well and has run well twice now at the Cheltenham Festival.


Very encouraging!

always been thought of as a national horse. im on midnight club and poker de sivola at this stage

Hi Mac

Yes that is encouraging, especially from Mullins who never gives anything definitive away. Think I might have a wee snaffle myself, 50's still available.

and the winner is....... MALJIMAR!!

Are you a fan of every horse from this yard Reve?

reve

yep. every 1 of em. well except from the odd one

This years winner entered in the Red Mills chase on 20th January, good to see all is well. 

Here's hoping for a decent run..........

I'm with you on this one GI MAC.Had a small dabble at 50 with 365 myself.IMO ideal National type ie races prominently,jumps well,crying out for a longer trip,well handicapped,not ground dependent.
With Mr Seagull tipping him for todays Abandoned race and positive mention for the National,the cat is now out of the bag.

Backed this on here at 55s a couple of weeks ago, massive chance

Indeed. Would have been good to see him today mind.

What did Tom say in the paper today hemsby?

".....and I know the trainer has been aiming him at the Grand National....."

Cheers Hemsby, that's great to hear.

Thyestes rearranged for Friday if ya didn't know

w.anks up

Another nibble before the off GI Mac?

[;)]

Ran too well imv

Have to agree FFT. Was hoping for a quiet 4-5th place here, not an eyecatcher which will allow the esteemed English Handicapper to clobber him.....
But then Mr Mullins knows enough about winning Nationals to make me think that perhaps there is even more up his sleeve than we thought...

Happy Punting

BB

same view on siegemaster FFT/blueboy?

Would have thought so.
Hopefully the fact TMC didn't win gives him enough respite from Phil Smith. That said i'm pleased enough with the run as it certainly confirms my belief that he is very well handicapped, and that an extreme trip will bring the best out in him

FWIW, which is not very much, Siegemaster strikes me more as an Irish National type. Lovely horse mind.....

Happy Punting

BB

cheers. trainer just said going irish national though :( oh well

Just watched the replay, ran well I guess. Thought he got a little far behind to begin with, then jockey stoked him up and he made up quite a bit of ground, stayed on really well at the end which augers well, race should bring him on. Did make a mistake at one fence but got away with it.

I initially thought 140 was plenty to get into the GN, but for the past two runnings the bottom rated was 139. So it's maybe not a bad thing for him to go up a little just to be sure of getting in, race gets classier every year. Seigemaster only rated 145, 7lb rise I would think??

Can't imagine we'll see him again before the weights are published.

GI MAC Agree with most of that mate.I thought the mistake he made about 4 out made the difference between winning and losing.I wasn't impressed with the number of times Mullins used his whip though,and just hope he is given a gentle prep before the National.

do for me [;)]

be amazed if he's not up to 150 now

Never won left-handed which is a bit of a worry.

Far worse, he's only twice even run left-handed. Coincidence? I fear not.

Twice finishing in the frame at the Cheltenham Festival is good enough for me [;)]

Finished a fine third in the Albert Bartlett behind the future RSA winner and a very good horse in Pride Of Dulcote. Also third in a G1 at Punchestown last year. Plenty classy enough, handicap mark could still be lenient enough to have a big chance at Aintree

Let's hope so FFT. You looking forward to anything in the handicaps this festival?

Got a couple lined up. One for the old billy hill (Tarablaze) and one for the Coral Cup (For Non Stop), awaiting running plans though

yourself?

The Midnight Club rated 145 on the RP site, not sure if that's his English or Irish mark. Should still get a good racing weight though I would have though

Aye, 145 is not too bad, but then it all depends on Mr Smith! He’s entered in the race I see.

For Non Stop is looking very well handicapped, he’ll be no secret wherever he goes, you can bet his trainer will have him spot on. I’m actually keeping an eye out on another of his; Horatio Caine, I’m hoping he ends up in the Fred Winter of a nice mark.

10-13 happy with that

2-3 lbs more than i was hoping for, but that really is nothing in a race like the National, and fair enough given mr Mullin's ability with jumpers.

still has a cracking chance imho.

fingers crossed now.

happy punting

BB

that 3rd to kempes beaten only 5l looks better by the minute.

given the improvement shown by china rock & kempes...i would have thought they would be over the moon...off of 10.13 (gauranteed as long as dpi turns up)
i know a few at the top are compressed...but only 4lbs higher than his irish mark looks fookin good to me...
just gota get ruby on board...and form an orderly que

when you put it like that...........

must admit i am a huge ruby fan, and really hope he is on this. not too obvious what other one he would be on other than niche market, but hope his allegiance to willie is strong enough. that plus he wants to be on the winner..

Trevor knows

After the Thyestes I feared 11-3/4 was a possible. Made up with 10-13. Given how DPI is going to run (barring a setback) it aint going up either

Will be his first ever run with < 11 stone

Got to be happy with that


Ruby would be the icing on the cake....

effectively 149. they can't complain

reckon this mighr have tom segal all over it aswell...so could well be 14/1 fav...by the end of the week.[;)]

fkn hope not

this will go off favourite imo

Willie Mullins, who won the race with Hedgehunter in 2005, said: “I am happy enough with The Midnight Club’s weight (10st 13lb) and hopefully Don’t Push It will run and keep the weights as they are.

Ballytrim eventually gets in this year and I’m happy enough with his weight too"

i thought about backing this horse for the national the other day but i was put off because all its wins are on soft or heavy ground, aren't you lot worried it might not get its ground as its usually good ground for the national isn't it. if it is a soft ground national it will go off single figure odds.

Not especially, he's ran well on good ground before, most notably at the Cheltenham and Punchestowns festivals last year. I've always been of the opinion that ground is imaterial to him.

His best piece of chasing form (and arguably hurdling) has come on good ground

he was 3rd to kempes & china on good ground
and 3rd to weapons amnesty on g/s

bring on the good ground[;)]

[smiley:crazy]



http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/229292/Charlie-McCann-joins-the-Midnight...

has someone tipped this up today, as price disappeared across the board?

or are others just starting to realise who the winner is going to be?

^ The latter, imv

The national winners out tomorrow.....Vic Venturi ..Looks a good race what price if Midnight wins then after the race Mullins says " Ruby 100% confirmed for the ride" Ill go 12/1 clear fav..Come on The Midnight Club

if he [midnight club]wins 2moro can the hcaper put him up in the weights between now and the national?

nope, weights stay the same

cheers toffee prob stupid question.thanks.

Midnight Club is already a good few pounds well in for Aintree imv

Let's push it over a stone with a victory tomorrow, go fast furry friend

all a bit premature i know, but getting a little bit nervous pre race, which is not my style at all.

i hate to think what i will be like in april if all goes to plan today....

come back safe and sound TMC.

Jumping not good enough to win the National.

Just watched a reply and I thought his jumping was really good considering it was heavy ground. He got in a bit close to a few, but adjusted well. It's all about how he takes to the fences and none of us know how that story goes.

More than happy with that performance, stayed on really well at the end and beat his field well, cannot find any negatives to be honest, but then again I'm completely biased.

like you say gi....all on the day..many a good jumper has fell...and a fair few dodge pots have got round...tbf..it's so loose on top..you canbrush through quite a few of them...its more how you land..and who's doing the steering...ruby must be short price to be up now..

was more than happy with oscars run aswell[;)]

Ruby...   [:p]

I have never backed the National winner and this year my main fancy is The Midnight Club..Hope this boosts your confidence..But my main fancy last year was Black Apalachi & the year before that was Comply Or Die..So thats 2009 3rd 2010 2nd we all know whats coming in 2011..Ruby Ruby Rubyyyyyyyyyy oh la la la laaa absolute canters on the clubyyy clubyyy clubbb..We can only hope

I'll be back

Not really bothered if Ruby rides or not tbh

GI MAC- just want to say great shout m8, excellent spot a year in adavance of course he hasnt got there yet or won etc but good shout all the same+good luck.

nice one spot, good luck yourself.

Excellent Stuff GI MAC, I also think that the The Midnight Club is a cracking National bet, and just for good measure (imho) the 2nd and 3d favs have serious stamina doubts,Ballabriggs was 'treading water'after the last when he won at last years festival,and Niche Market appeared not to stay in last years National (i backed it).

i see the couch in the post today...reckons more than one mole has said ruby rides[;)]
got nothing against townsend mind..but ruby rides aintree well.

Hopefully nothing he saw from Niche Market today will change his mind. hardly screamed national winner to me there....

Ruby Walsh has been confirmed as the rider of ante-post favourite The Midnight Club in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on April 9.

The Irish jockey, who won the Liverpool spectacular on Papillon in 2000 and Hedgehunter in 2005, has opted for the Willie Mullins-trained 10-year-old ahead of his other possible mounts.

Chief among them was Niche Market, for whom champion English trainer Paul Nicholls has moved to book Harry Skelton.

Speaking from France, a delighted Mullins said: "I think that's what is happening and it's good news.

"The Midnight Club is in good form. He worked twice during the week and we're very pleased with him. Everything I have that is in the race at the moment is going, if they get in."


Icing on the cake

Tingle Creek Niche Market picked up an injury in lasy yers race mate.

First time i have seen this thread and its a credit to the forum. Brilliant anti post find GM. I have missed all the fancy prices on the Midnight Club but i am still lumping on at 10 as he will be 7/1 on the day. He has it all, a perfect Grand National type and he is the only horse in the race that finishes all of his races well. Perfect apart from the trends but he certainly has the class and is an unexposed 10 year old so it could be a blessing that he has on had 8 chase starts.

Good luck all

8 chase starts,all recent winners at least 10(miinnehoma 9)
Not had a top 5 placing in any of the trend races of the last TWENTY,YES 20,winners.
Wont win with a 200 metre start,FACT.
End of thread,end of horsers chances.
PS,are you bookies up to your old tricks again putting up stupid no hoper threads to con punters? [;)]

What are the trend races 24/7 ?

I guarantee he would have more than enough ability to be at least place in any of your trendraces. After all he comprehensively beat ( outstayed if you like [;)]) Oscar Time who himself finished 2nd in one of your trendraces. Dont follow the trends blindly. TMC is an unexposed 10 year old and has more than enough class to fit the bill. If he had 10 or more chases under his belt he would be racing off higher than 149.

Hold on,lets get this straight here,TMC has had 8 chase starts,yes,that was 8.
That means he is extremely inexperienced for a horse running in the National.
The whole reason i KEEP posting race trends and stats to clothe eared buffoons,is the previous twenty winners proved they needed that experience in top class company.
Miinnehoma only had 9 starts prior to winning at Aintree,but he was way superior to TMC,he was 3rd in the welsh national and 7th in the 94 gold cup,after winning the 94 National,went on to be 3rd in the 95 gold cup,like i said,PROVEN CLASS ANIMAL,wtf has TMC done,sweet f**K all,thats what.
Try looking at the list CAREFULLY on the What A Friend thread,you will notice some very interesting trends on the list i posted,of the last 20 winners.
Judgeing by your comments,i dare say your either on TMC at a price,or one of the layers try to ramp it up as something special,ill be the first to say,"dont follow trends or stats blindly,horses win races,not trends or stats".
But i have carefully researched everything,and history says TMC cannot win,in fact trends say you had to have enough ability to be in the top 5 in any of the trends races,if you accept that dont push it would have undoubtably been in the first 5 in the 2007 grade 1 Arkle(1 length 3rd and going well when fell),prior to that he was just touched off by Denman anyway(levels),enough evidence to tell us he had a good chance.[;)]

So according to your logic,The Arkle is a better guide to a prospective Grand National winner than either the Thystes or the Bobbyjo

247lol -

The Midnight Club would have been 5th if he'd ran in this year's Gold Cup.

247 the trends are there but is the % of all the runners which have had 10 or more chases prior to running? as this will affect the trends. Simple logic

sorry...247..

What is the % of all the horses who have had 10 or more chases prior to running in the GN?
Of those with less than 10 (who are at least 8 year olds) have actually proven themself over at least  3 miles ?

You need to research these factors before jumping on the trends bandwaggon. hth.

Yes hemsby ,The arkle obviously was a better guide in this case,it was a grade 1 race,in other words,the best 2 milers of its generation,and it looked like winning it had not fallen.
The National is a grade 3.
You basically look at racing all wrong,like many,Dont push it obviously was a very high class animal,lets face it,not many horses almost win an arkle and almost beat Denman at level weights,and become a  National winner.
When put over 4 1/2 miles,he showed us he retained a lot of that grade 1 novice speed that enabled him to quicken up better than the rest at the business end of the National.
So i dare say theres a lot of horses in this years race that have a darn site more class and speed than that soft ground lover The Midnight Club.
Who won the 2008 Arkle ?.[;)],it doesnt really matter if you cant personally work out why it won,the fact remains it did,so if Tidal managed to win the National this year at 33/1,you now know why dont you.[;)]

247 I think you make a fair point about Tidal

However I have personally backed Midnight Club at big prices he doesnt need soft bottomless ground he was making up ground hand over fist at the Festival over 3 miles against Weapons Amnesty as a novice hurdler would have won that if they went a furlong further over faster ground.

He was then campaigned at the next festival over an inadequate 2m 4f and was a strong finishing 3rd. Both times he proved he could run at decent speed as few if any races are run at a dawdle.

All the way through his career he has been campaigned lightly, his last race form on the Soft ground proved he wanted a trip I think everyone who has an inkling about this horse knew he would be a stone better over further than he has previously raced

With Walsh on board this is a massive plus he jumps his fences well but you need a trusted jockey who can judge how far to sit off the speed and present him at his fences.

Tidal bay has really not progressed since his arkle win I cant knock that race as he smashed that field and previous festival won the 2m 5f novice hurdle as well.

Nothing is a certainty this year but I would strongly disagree that plenty of horses are classier than this indivdual.

Top weight, What a Friend, then you start to struggle could concede Tidal Bay on backclass but against this you have a top weight in the race. What a friend who ran in an outstanding gold cup the edge will have been taken off him. You could say the same for tidal.

Gd luck 33/1 is about right for tidal but having had some 40/1 plus am happy with my bet

247

To suggest that the Arkle is a guide to future National winners is possibly the craziest statement I have ever read on this Forum (and I've read a few weird ones)

Yes,Don't Push It ran in an Arkle,and then won a National....but using the same logic ,perhaps I should look for a horse who won a sprint seller on the Flat because Red Rum did!

Most horses during their career are stepped up in trip as they get older.Some horses who run in the Arkle will turn out to be high quality staying chasers,for example Kicking King.But to suggest this has any bearing on whether a horse can win a National is quite simply wrong.

Thankyou for your kind advice that "You basically look at racing all wrong".I'm more than happy with my AP bet @ 50/1 on "the soft ground lover" The Midnight Club,as I believe he is a better horse on good ground.

Then again as you say,perhaps I'm looking at it all wrong.

Well said Hemsby

Apparently according to 247 the only animals that win the Grand National are ones who are Gold Cup class with Arkle speed...nothing to do with stamina, jumping,courage or just being the right handicapped type for the race!

Of course he is right and the majority of us are looking at racing all wrong.

Couple of misquotes here i think,i think if you decide to read the post properly,you may find i said,"in this particular case"
And to be honest,i havent a clue what hemsbys on about,think your just p***ed off because ive rubbished your opinion,suck it up,take it on the chin and think about it.
Two things that will F**k the Midnight club,first his lack of experience over fences,then if by some miracle hes still in contention over the last,his lack of gears,hes shown no form at g1 level over either 2 miles or 2 1/2 miles,apart from being beaten 26 lengths in a g1 chase over 2 miles at Aintree on good.
So what does that tell us ?,hes got no gears,he stays,but thats it,come the business end we have another big fella thanks,stays but no class.
And if you cant understand that,i suggest you give up betting and buy a fishing rod.[;)][:x][;)][:D]

Dont remember Mon Mone being know for his gears

Amberleigh House had gears!!

Absolute twonk. The guy is clueless.

apart from being beaten 26 lengths in a g1 chase over 2 miles at Aintree on good.


Are you even talking about the right horse? Don't Push It was once beaten 26L over 2m at Aintree, not The Midnight Club.



As for the gears thing, bolllox. You don't need gears to win a National ffs, just the ability to stay and stay. The Midnight Club has been crying out for a trip for ages.


Must say though the experience thing is a slight concern, other than that, he has the whole package for a National winner


class: grade 2 winner, twice grade 1 placed (hurdles + fences)
stays: I think so, good form over 3m
ground: Best 2 pieces of form had good in the going description
jumping: not that bad imv, only fell once which is the generally accepted maximum as far as traditional stats go:
in form: yep, and only once ever out of the places when completing


jockey + trainer know how to win the race, which is obviously a bonus, and he's been campaigned with only this in mind, and it's been a good campaign

247

Last post on the subject as you are ruining a thread of outstanding foresight by GI MAC.

You don't need Grade 1 form over 2/2.5 miles to win a National.

The Midnight Club has never raced over 2 miles (hurdles or fences) and never ran at Aintree so what are you going on about?

No horse has a change of gear at the end of a 4 1/2 mile National.It's just that some slow down less than others.

Big Fella Thanks failed in last years National because he DIDN'T stay.

Virtually your whole post is inaccurate,and is compounded by your arrogance and rudeness.

Now do everyone a favour and heed your own words...."I have carefully researched everything"[;)][;)](I know you like these smilies)

Just to add to what FFT and Hensby have added.

The Midnight Club is a 10 year old and i think this could help him negate the `experience` stat, as i would say the majority of the horses who have run without this `10 Chase starts, experience` would have been less mature animals.

Whats your bet 247lol?  Or are you going fishing?...either way your on the wrong thread.

Well, today has arrived. I have been looking forward to this race for some time now and I’m hugely excited. I’ve backed the horse ew at 50/1, 33/1 and 20/1, it’s the most money I’ve ever placed anti-post on a single horse.

I’m sure all the shrewdies will cringe at that, this isn’t really the race to be having big punts; yesterdays Topham reminded us that you need a good portion of luck in running. Still, I think TMC has so much going for him which is why I’ve gone in big.

I was delighted when Ruby picked him, there isn’t a better jockey riding today over these fences. I’m sure he will have TMC well positioned with a clear sighting of the obstacles, and quietly switched off.

Good luck backers, here’s hoping we get a decent run for our money and he comes back safe.