8 chase starts,all recent winners at least 10(miinnehoma 9)
Not had a top 5 placing in any of the trend races of the last TWENTY,YES 20,winners.
Wont win with a 200 metre start,FACT.
End of thread,end of horsers chances.
PS,are you bookies up to your old tricks again putting up stupid no hoper threads to con punters? [;)]

Hold on,lets get this straight here,TMC has had 8 chase starts,yes,that was 8.
That means he is extremely inexperienced for a horse running in the National.
The whole reason i KEEP posting race trends and stats to clothe eared buffoons,is the previous twenty winners proved they needed that experience in top class company.
Miinnehoma only had 9 starts prior to winning at Aintree,but he was way superior to TMC,he was 3rd in the welsh national and 7th in the 94 gold cup,after winning the 94 National,went on to be 3rd in the 95 gold cup,like i said,PROVEN CLASS ANIMAL,wtf has TMC done,sweet f**K all,thats what.
Try looking at the list CAREFULLY on the What A Friend thread,you will notice some very interesting trends on the list i posted,of the last 20 winners.
Judgeing by your comments,i dare say your either on TMC at a price,or one of the layers try to ramp it up as something special,ill be the first to say,"dont follow trends or stats blindly,horses win races,not trends or stats".
But i have carefully researched everything,and history says TMC cannot win,in fact trends say you had to have enough ability to be in the top 5 in any of the trends races,if you accept that dont push it would have undoubtably been in the first 5 in the 2007 grade 1 Arkle(1 length 3rd and going well when fell),prior to that he was just touched off by Denman anyway(levels),enough evidence to tell us he had a good chance.[;)]

247lol -

The Midnight Club would have been 5th if he'd ran in this year's Gold Cup.

sorry...247..

What is the % of all the horses who have had 10 or more chases prior to running in the GN?
Of those with less than 10 (who are at least 8 year olds) have actually proven themself over at least  3 miles ?

You need to research these factors before jumping on the trends bandwaggon. hth.

247 I think you make a fair point about Tidal

However I have personally backed Midnight Club at big prices he doesnt need soft bottomless ground he was making up ground hand over fist at the Festival over 3 miles against Weapons Amnesty as a novice hurdler would have won that if they went a furlong further over faster ground.

He was then campaigned at the next festival over an inadequate 2m 4f and was a strong finishing 3rd. Both times he proved he could run at decent speed as few if any races are run at a dawdle.

All the way through his career he has been campaigned lightly, his last race form on the Soft ground proved he wanted a trip I think everyone who has an inkling about this horse knew he would be a stone better over further than he has previously raced

With Walsh on board this is a massive plus he jumps his fences well but you need a trusted jockey who can judge how far to sit off the speed and present him at his fences.

Tidal bay has really not progressed since his arkle win I cant knock that race as he smashed that field and previous festival won the 2m 5f novice hurdle as well.

Nothing is a certainty this year but I would strongly disagree that plenty of horses are classier than this indivdual.

Top weight, What a Friend, then you start to struggle could concede Tidal Bay on backclass but against this you have a top weight in the race. What a friend who ran in an outstanding gold cup the edge will have been taken off him. You could say the same for tidal.

Gd luck 33/1 is about right for tidal but having had some 40/1 plus am happy with my bet

Well said Hemsby

Apparently according to 247 the only animals that win the Grand National are ones who are Gold Cup class with Arkle speed...nothing to do with stamina, jumping,courage or just being the right handicapped type for the race!

Of course he is right and the majority of us are looking at racing all wrong.

Dont remember Mon Mone being know for his gears

apart from being beaten 26 lengths in a g1 chase over 2 miles at Aintree on good.


Are you even talking about the right horse? Don't Push It was once beaten 26L over 2m at Aintree, not The Midnight Club.



As for the gears thing, bolllox. You don't need gears to win a National ffs, just the ability to stay and stay. The Midnight Club has been crying out for a trip for ages.


Must say though the experience thing is a slight concern, other than that, he has the whole package for a National winner


class: grade 2 winner, twice grade 1 placed (hurdles + fences)
stays: I think so, good form over 3m
ground: Best 2 pieces of form had good in the going description
jumping: not that bad imv, only fell once which is the generally accepted maximum as far as traditional stats go:
in form: yep, and only once ever out of the places when completing


jockey + trainer know how to win the race, which is obviously a bonus, and he's been campaigned with only this in mind, and it's been a good campaign

Just to add to what FFT and Hensby have added.

The Midnight Club is a 10 year old and i think this could help him negate the `experience` stat, as i would say the majority of the horses who have run without this `10 Chase starts, experience` would have been less mature animals.

Well, today has arrived. I have been looking forward to this race for some time now and I’m hugely excited. I’ve backed the horse ew at 50/1, 33/1 and 20/1, it’s the most money I’ve ever placed anti-post on a single horse.

I’m sure all the shrewdies will cringe at that, this isn’t really the race to be having big punts; yesterdays Topham reminded us that you need a good portion of luck in running. Still, I think TMC has so much going for him which is why I’ve gone in big.

I was delighted when Ruby picked him, there isn’t a better jockey riding today over these fences. I’m sure he will have TMC well positioned with a clear sighting of the obstacles, and quietly switched off.

Good luck backers, here’s hoping we get a decent run for our money and he comes back safe.