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Not a prayer.
Will be champion all the way. Gave Binocular too much rope in the champion & would have been a mighty impressive winner without him. Came from another parish when all other hold up horses never got a sniff. Given softer ground which suits K.K better & reduces Binocs chances he could go very close in a champion. |
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i am with geoff on this,cant for one minute think he will go stayers route,accept the point about big bucks though steplechasing.
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BB i think will be tried again over fences,although still might end up in WH!!
Zaynar will be tried over 3m,but not definite he will stay imo,think a CH on softer ground would suit him better,not Kelso soft though. KK will have another go at the CH but cannot see him beating Binocular unless ground comes up pretty soft. Thats how i see it. |
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We shall see. He won't beat an in form Binocular at 2 miles and he was staying on so strongly at the end at both Cheltenham and, more significantly, Aintree, that I think there is every chnace he'd see out the WH trip. If he did so without any loss of his turn of foot, he'd be of great interest to me even with BB in the field.
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He won't beat an in form Binocular at 2 miles (on good ground) I would agree.
He gave Binocular too much rope in the champion. If it was soft It would be close. QUickest the grounds been on 1st day for a number of days Simon surprisingly didnt put enough juice on to start the meeting Save your money steeplechasing. |
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I think they will fancy their chances on softer ground in the champion.
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Given his previous tendency to run well fresh(albeit put that to bed on Saturday) wouldnt be surprised to see him only run once B4 the champion in the Bula.
Whereby he could have him fully tuned up win that on likely suitable soft ground give him a break bring him back fresh for the champion. I think hes well overpriced for the Champion Hurdle. |
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geoff m, I agree, if it was soft it would be close.
I won't be having too much on but I'm willing to take a small gamble if KK gets priced up for the race that he will turn up there and that BB (12/1) will head for the GC in 2011. If I'm right, the defection of BB will greatly assist the chances of KK therefore making the bet proper value. If I'm wrong, small stakes mean the damage will be very limited. |
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Binocular seemed to run so exceptionally well in the CH that there has to be a fair chance that was a one-off, or least that there has to be a good chance he will struggle to repeat that performance in the next renewal (and especially so if the ground were softer). Henderson has said a number of times over the last few years that he has found Binocular a particularly difficult horse to get exactly right for the big races. On that basis, opposing Binocular in the 2011 CH, imo, would be seen as far from a forlorn hope for horses of the class of KK.
The idea of stepping KK up in trip is interesting and he wouldn't be such a classy horse if he didn't also have quite a bit of stamina alongside his obvious speed. But I wonder if it was his class, more than anything, that made him look so good over 20f at Aintree (bit like Sentry Duty when he beat Katchit and Mr Thriller over the intermediate distance earlier in the season). That certainly wouldn't rule out KK potentially being suited by a further step up in trip, but we did see in the WH this time that it was the proven stayers at the trip who filled the first three places and the classy two mile horses stepping up to the distance for the first/second time (Sentry Duty and Katchit) couldn't quite cut it at the trip at that level. Muirhead might be interesting stepped up to three miles. When he gets his conditions, he travels exceptionally well, without quite having the finishing speed (or maybe the resolution) over two miles to convert strong positions into race wins against high class opposition. He may not quite have the class to be a strong WH contender, and he could be tried over fences next season anyway, but he has clearly shown now that he is effective over further than the minimum trip on better ground and I suspect there is a fair old engine there for plugging on over longer trips. I thought Ebadiyan ran very well for a long time in the WH, considering his age and inexperience. He still didn't settle perfectly, but was better in that respect than when he ran in the Triumph and in some of his other races prior to the WH. As his stamina develops with age, and if he can continue the progress he has shown in settling better in his races, I can see him being able to last home quite well in top staying hurdles races in the future, should he be kept over the smaller obstacles. And if BB doesn't line up for the WH next season, Ebadiyan might be worth adding to the shortlist of those who could potentially be among the realistic contenders for the renewal in 2011. It was interesting, I thought, that the trainer chose the WH route for Ebadiyan this year in preference to the CH. The horse ran well enough in finishing fifth to more than justify the trainer's confidence that the WH was an appropriate entry to take. |
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Will go for the Champion Hurdle. If the form was as good as it looked (and i think it was) then Binocular looked an exceptional champion to me, but soft ground or a recurrence of his problems would leave KK in pole position.
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Def will stay at 2m for Chelts IMO. He could reverse the form of this years run as already said if conditions suit. I can't see Big Bucks leaving a sphere where he has proven to be so much ahead of his rivals, he instantly looked better when switching back to hurdles than he did over fences.
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Thanks BD
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When was the last 9yo to win champion? Genuine question, not being flippant
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Istabraq?
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Cant think of any since
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Rooster Booster - how did I forget that cost me a fortune so to in last decade
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Pretty sure Istabraq won it at 6,7 and 8 mate, could be wrong though
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I think he was 10 when he broke down but likewise
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Just checked - he would've won at 9 were it not for foot and mouth
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Rooster did win at 9. I think it would be a decent idea to take him down the stayers route, id be very surprised if connections opted too however
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At the moment it looks like there is only 1 horse that is better over 2m at Chelt,and on suitable going maybe none,so why go for a less profile race that really is for failed chasers and horses that aint good enough for the CH?? Maybe a bit harsh on the WH,But it aint in the same league as the CH.
Absolute no brainer for me. |
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Well BD has a very strong connection with the yard, so there will be no further argument from me. Doubtess KK and Binoc will meet again before the CH anyway in pursuit of the WBX MIllion (assuming they do it again)
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Cant see K.K chasing the WBX bonus if he goes Spoilsports Bula on his doorstep (which comes with a £200k champ hurdle bonus or did) he avoids Binocular & should have the race @ his mercy.
Dont think they will meet again till the champion. |
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LOL not read the thread yet but I was talking about this today with somebody and feel he would be a possible bet on good ground and well worth a try at the race
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