the oaks

Trev w, is lillie langtry out of the oaks?

essex, this is from the RP.


Aidan O'Brien was chasing a fifth success in the race and had five runners. Remember When, a 20-1 chance, fared best in fourth and was cut to 8-1 (from 14) with Paddy Power for the Investec Oaks on June 4.

Stablemate Lillie Langtry, who made late headway to finish fifth, was also cut by the firm and is 16-1 (from 25) for the Epsom Classic,although O'Brien said she was more likely to run in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

can only hope jonny see's it diferent and persuades him otherwise back at home....

thanks for that amaru.
i thought she had oaks written all over her.

Snow Fairy,glad they listened to me very good chance imo

Is Saajjhaa an intended runner ?

I for one, Gunner, would love to see her take her chance, if she has come out of her last race well,this is the most open Oaks for many a year, and an improving, classy type like Sajjhaa just could prevail.

Great the unlucky horses on the wrong side in the Guineas like Music Show drawn badly have gone on to win .. sure Rumoush can emulate her.

Is Termagant definitely out?

Yep.
Listening to the trainer before the race he did not sound too bullish about Epsom,tbh.

Sajjhaa too inexperienced imo. A once raced maiden winner dont win classics, is it ?!?

Whilst everything does seem to be against Sajjhaa running, she does have Michael Jarvis as her trainer and he is not scared to have a go in a classic with a once raced maiden. Hala Bek went into the 2006 Derby as a once raced maiden winner. He was only beaten 1/2L and could be counted a bit unlucky as the camber caught him out in the last furlong.

Sajjhaa blew hard after her Sandown win and should come on a ton for it so she would be a very interesting runner. They have stated she wouldn't want it too fast so I guess she would be more likely to get better ground at Epsom than by waiting for the Ribblesdale.

Akdarena seems to me to be one of those off horses that appears to be quite exposed, and then decides to improve. I recall that Finsceal Beo looked exposed and then won the Boussac in brilliant style before classic glory.

Akdarena started with a RP rating of 69. After that she ran 5 times on soft going eventually running to a mark of 93. She ran 100 first time out and then got 111 last time. I see no reason to doubt the form or the last rating.

The last 2 runs are the ones she has shown most improvement for and it looks very significant that both runs were on good ground. Looking carefully at her form, she was unexposed, despite numerous runs, on decent going. now we know she is a group filly on good ground over 10 furlongs, but just look at her breeding. She is by Hernando (12.3 average winning distance of his 3yo's) out of a Shirley Heights mare who has already foaled a 12 furliong winner by Refuse To Bend ( a miler!). The dam has oodles of stamina in her pedigree on both sides, the great grand sire has a stamina index of 2 miles!).

Akdarena is absolutely certain to improve significantly for the step up to 12 furlongs - she will stay at least 14 herself. If she runs close to 120 at Epsom, and this does seem quite likely, she would go very close in most Oaks.

Anything in the Oaks field will need to stay as Akdarena is a front runner and, just like last time over 10 furlongs, there will be a number of fillies at Epsom off the bit and beginning to feel the pinch before the 3 furlong marker. I am not sure this is a vintage looking oaks field, and Akdarena is unlikely to be stopping, just galloping on and on.

Maybe 12/1 is fair enough, she had decent enough form, is progressive, very tough and, in a race with a number of doubtful stayers, she is guarenteed to get the trip.

Amongst the doubtful stayers are Timepiece, Aviate and both Aiden's entries.

Good post cry.

I saw things in a similar light after I went though the race and would argue that 12/1 still represents good value. 

It could well not be the strongest race and as such has to have a decent chance.

Can't agree that Timepiece is doubtful to stay. Her performance in the Montrose was very much one of a filly that will stay, plus the fact that Cecil pitched her straight in at a mile as a 2yo suggests that stamina wasn't thought an issue.

aviate will relish every yard of this trip

Tom Queally has chosen to partner Aviate in the Investec Oaks at Epsom rather than Timepiece after riding both in their latest piece of work on the Newmarket gallops.

The jockey admitted it was a difficult decision between the two Henry Cecil-trained fillies but after plenty of heart-searching he has picked the Musidora Stakes winner.

Eddie Ahern, who teamed up with Aviate at York as Queally was serving a suspension, is likely to be on Timepiece in the Oaks.

"I was pleased with both fillies. They are in great heart and it was hard to split on their work," said Queally.

"You couldn't split them, but having gone through the form and looked at all the pros and cons

I've opted for Aviate.

"If you look at the Musidora down through the years they say it's the best Oaks trial and I took that into account.

"I liked the way she quickened up that day and, at the end of the day, she's a filly that's unbeaten and you've got to take that as a factor as well. I can't see the extra distance bothering her too much.

"They were hard to split and it was a difficult decision to make. You never know with fillies how they will turn up on the day. We'll give it our best shot and hopefully one of them will win, whoever's on board.

"It's great for Henry (Cecil) to be in that position and the Prince (Khalid Abdullah) as well.

"They are double-handed and both have fantastically good chances. The owner and the trainer have a great chance of winning it."

Sky Bet, who quote Aviate at 5-1 and Timepiece 11-2, are not surprised by Queally's decision.

Spokesman Matt Doyle said: "Of the Cecil pair, we always favoured Aviate over Timepiece and the market has been proved right with Tom Queally siding with the Musidora winner as his Oaks mount."

Agree cryoftruth Akdarena has a great chance and defo worth an e/w punt

i always thought the main point HC made about timepiece was how well she always worked at home...and if transfering to the track...she would be special...
so i'm suprised TQ has chosen aviate after riding them both out...

Big boost for my Aviate bet imo. Ahern rode Aviate in the Musidora (as Queally was suspended) and Quelly rode Timepiece in her trial, so the fact that they have switched by Tom's choice shows that the decision maybe wasn't as hard as suggested.

I can't agree that Timepiece is not a doubtful stayer. To my eyes she was treading water a furlong out at Lingfield and yet she has another half a furlong to travel at Epsom.

Has anyone considered that perhaps the form of the Lingfield race is simply not up to much, which is the opinion I have formed myself. The winner Dyna Waltz looked beaten fully 4 out....the 82 rated fourth in that race was going better than her coming into the straight.....and the third had only won a backend maiden race. In the end the winner won by outstaying the others pure and simple.

'i always thought the main point HC made about timepiece was how well she always worked at home...and if transfering to the track...she would be special...
so i'm suprised TQ has chosen aviate after riding them both out... '


The fact Timepiece dont do it on the track may not have been overlooked.

PFtrader 26 May 10 17:26   


I can't agree that Timepiece is not a doubtful stayer. To my eyes she was treading water a furlong out at Lingfield and yet she has another half a furlong to travel at Epsom.

Has anyone considered that perhaps the form of the Lingfield race is simply not up to much, which is the opinion I have formed myself. The winner Dyna Waltz looked beaten fully 4 out....the 82 rated fourth in that race was going better than her coming into the straight.....and the third had only won a backend maiden race. In the end the winner won by outstaying the others pure and simple

I agree, in fact I think that form is absolutely cr@p, I just think Timepiece can do much better.

Is Hibaayeb an intended runner do we know?

If you watch Timepiece at Lingfield, there were 2 rthings about the race. The first is that she chased a suicidal pace, confirmed by the fact that the winner came from right at the back. The second is that Timepiece looked pretty ungainly, as if she was not at ease on the ground or the track or both. I am Henry's biggest fan but i would be quite surprised if he got Timepice to win. I take back the not staying stuff though - she is bred to get the trip, just didn't run liek she did at Lingfield.
Aviate is not bred to get the trip, but runs like she will - I see her as a danger, but still quite like the Bolger filly more especially at the price.

Figgis,good evening [;)] Snow Fairy iyo ?

Evening TT. Was gutted with her win last time as I had her as the fastest going into the race but didn't have a penny on. I reckon it was quite a poor race though as it turned out and I don't think she improved much to win there, think she'll need to step up quite a lot on that.

Thanks for the reply Figgis,was just wondering yer thoughts,i like her a lot,and as you know,horses can improve a lot from 2 to 3,and that's what i'm banking on [;)]  btw,did you think the same of Look Here ? as in needing to step up a lot.

Yeah Look Here totally caught me out, TT, thought she was a decent winner of the race too, although she didn't go on from that after. Nothing stands out on this year's form so I don't think anything can be ruled out, there could well be another Look Here lurking amongst them. I actually think Timepiece could be a cut above these and win decisively but can understand why some are against her with her efforts so far this season.

I agree with cryoftruth: Akdarena has arguably the best form credentials of all the Oaks entries, so she must represent good each-way value at the current odds.  I'm still hoping that Timepiece will finally put up a high-class performance commensurate with her home reputation.  But it's hope rather than expectation.

Akdarena has come in 3-4 points today...

Any reason behind this?

Apart from the fact that we keep talking her up and people/ bookies read this!!

Has there been an Oaks winner with blinkers/visor ?

Obviously she is talanted but I don't like the tail flashing
She did it again last time out

She has a messy profile for an Oaks winner imo. Could touch her with a barge pole, becuase I just get the feeling the trainer throws his best horses at the best races in a season whether they are good enough or not.

Excellent, HRAC interview there on CH4 both fillies go there with a big chance, he respects 5 in the race and two of those are his which he wouldn't swap for any which he said in his understated way.  Best part is, as we hoped earlier in this thread, and the Master knows it, Timepiece is going to be ridden differently in the Oaks.

Lots of money for the Jarvis filly, if she has improvement in her from her fist run she must go close and he surely would not be running her unless he thought she could win. MJ never over faces his horses

is she a definite runner Mr M, do you know?

TD_Gunner - I am not Mr M obviously, but my understanding is that Michael Jarvis wants to run at Epsom and has advised the owner of his wish. It will be an owners decision but will be shocked if the owner does not agree as the Godolphin team have little to go to war with - will be surprised if Frankie does not get on her. The ground will suit better at Epsom than Royal Ascot as she is a big filly who will not want it too fast.

Thanks i say. A very interesting runner, like Mr Moran says, you've got to take her seriously if Jarvis thinks she's good enough to run her in this after just one run. She also looked pretty professional in her maiden win and quickened really well as soon as Dettori asked her.

dettoris dirched her for hibaayeb

I can't have the Jarvis filly at all.  The form of her Sandown maiden win is dire and she needs to find at least two stone on the bare form to make an impact in the Oaks.  Very promising filly, but the Oaks will surely come too soon in her career.  Very poor value at current odds.

As someone who lumped on 25s Eswarah immediately after her maiden win at Newbury must say didn't get the same feeling for this one. Will be surprised if she can improve enough to beat the Cecil fillies though after HRAC love Jarvis as a handler when he has the ammo.

Kirk, have you saved on Aviate ..

''Lots of money for the Jarvis filly, if she has improvement in her from her fist run she must go close''


Whilst i agree she was very impressive beating an ordinary bunch at sandown, i cant agree with this statement...the bare form of her first run would see her beaten 10 lengths in the Oaks, so she has to improve PLENTY.

I took 25s on the eve of the Musidora as a cover ... wish I'd gone for it more now ... however after initially thinking against it have gone in again at smaller prices to have her and Timepiece against the field. Still fancy Timepiece really significant HRAC said she will be ridden differently in the Oaks as for me she idles in front after travelling well.

I think there is a real turn up coming here. This crop of fillies is moderate.

Kirk can u list the 5 fillies that HC mentioned it in his interview.

best he didnt say! just said he wouldnt swap for any of his 2.

Very confident Rumoush will win this. Having watched her win her maiden on the AW again she was never going to be a miler and her performance in Guineas when just behind Music Show on the "wrong" side just proved her class imo. In the Feilden she was doing her best work in the last 50 yards, the only possible reason Timepiece can reverse the form is the "Henry" factor as she was beaten hands down by Rumoush here. I maybe have a slight worry about the track with her being such a big filly but I am convinced she will come into her own when going over a trip.

gl with that saritamer, as the trainer says nothing looks scary from the trials.

I assume the godolphin filly doesn't go now

HIBAAYEB will not run in the Investec Oaks at Epsom on Friday, Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford has said.

The Saeed Bin Suroor-trained filly finished third in the Group 1 Montjeu Coolmore Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp last time, and will now be aimed at Royal Ascot.


Crisford said: “Hibaayeb doesn’t run in the Oaks – she’ll be aimed at the Ribblesdale – so we don’t have a runner in the race.”

Godolphin's absence paves the way for Frankie Dettori to partner once-raced Sajjhaa, owned by Ahmed Al Maktoum and trained by Michael Jarvis, and who hasbeen a significant market mover in recent days.

Sajjhaa was cut again on Monday by several firms , to 6-1, having been double that price a few days earlier

Thank you tt hadn't seen that!

No worries Sava[;)]

What do we think of Meeznah chaps ? Has better form than Sajjhaa and is 4 times the price ..

Racecaller's Trends

The Investec Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday 4th June. It’s the fillies’ equivalent to the Derby, run over the same 1M 4F trip. In recent years it has really paid to stick with the favourite in this race with 6 of the last 10 landing the prize. Look Here, in 2008, has been the only real shock winner of this century.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
British bred: 5-8-51
Irish bred: 2-10-61
American bred: 2-1-11
German bred: 1-0-3
Japanese bred: 0-0-1
UAE bred: 0-0-1
British bred horses have won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 40% of the total runners.
American bred horses have 2 of the last 10 from approximately 8.6% of the total runners.
No real stand out trends on the breeding, with the last 2 winners being sired by Pivotal (July Cup winner) and Hernando (French Derby winner).

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 6 career starts
9 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season
7 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions finished 2nd in an Oaks trial on seasonal debut)
9 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days
7 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (2 of 3 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+

Other Races
Musidora Stakes winner (Aviate): 2833851 (1-3-7)
Cheshire Oaks winner (Gertrude Bell): 7306100 (1-1-7)
Pretty Polly winner (Marie De Medici): 34051000 (1-1-8)
Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Dyna Waltz): 77902 (0-1-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 16
3 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 422
2 of 10 winners ran in the Rockfel, finishing 22
The last 6 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

Trainers
Henry Cecil (2-1-5) has won this race 8 times and he’s won it twice in the last 10 years from just 5 runners.
Aidan O’Brien (2-6-25) has also won the race twice in the past decade, however from significantly more runners. O'Brien's first strings have a record of 2-5-9.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-8), Ralph Beckett (1-0-2) and Michael Jarvis (1-0-2) have each saddled the winner once since 2000.
Michael Stoute (0-2-10) and Barry Hills (0-2-10) have both filled 2 places from 10 runners in the last 10 years.
Irish-trained runners have a record of 2-8-32, though when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-7.

Price
8 of 10 winners have come from the first 4 in the betting and priced 13/2 or below.
Favourites (6-2-11) have a superb record in this having won 6 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 9.96 over past 10 years.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         British or American Bred
·         Had 1 or 2 runs this season
·         Ran in the past 35 days and achieved career high RPR
·         Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
·         Won over 1M+
·         Won last time out
·         Finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial
·         Trained by Henry Cecil or Aidan O’Brien (first string)
·         Sent off favourite

Aviate then.

Just looking at them vs trends now Gunny.

plenty of horses had 3 runs in the current season?

Snow Fairy e/w b a l l s d e e p

im now concerned about her getting home tt?

A few ave said the same Plat,not to my eyes though,and that's what i rely on

Aviate is the Trends pick, closely followed by Gertrude Bell & Timepiece. Snow Fairy shows well enough too.

Might follow you in ew on SF tt, was annoyed I didn't back her lto - backed the other Dunlop filly, they were closely tied on form, yet SF was twice the price that day. wadc!

Looks between the two Cecils fillies, Oxx's, GB & SF.....

oxx's ? bolgers?

sorry, Bolgers

If i erased all my bets and stuck to one, it would be Timepiece. A jockey change is a plus on the premis it didn't work out with Quealy, so it shouldn't do any harm in changing. I think we will see why she's held in a high regard come Friday.

Akdarena - improving sort?

Aviate will have to stay a truly run race as Manning wont be looking to make an easy Frankie D style waiting in front ride but hammering on w a good number chasing pace. Might be something like Champaignelifestyle which stays on makes frame.

If you include Damsire index 11f+  7/10 (inc. one unknown) you can knock a good few out.

Only Sariska 10.5f and Casual Look 9.9f (weak race) defied this...

What's left after that?

leaves akdarena, ceilidh house, meeznah, sajjhaa and timepiece

only cabaret and marie de medeci exceed Casual Look's figure.

I'm absolutely no expert on these matters but makes a long list short!

Laid/laying Timepiece and Rumoush both E/W.

GL all

Cheers Jair.

Got Akdarena, Ceilidh House and Timepiece as my back ups to Aviate.

[:p]

Aviate strong, and wouldn't put anyone off Timepiece.

I'd like to like Timepiece but it worries me that on her three defeats, she was favourite each time. Is she a morning glory?

Ramruma Joined: 11 Dec 02
Replies: 500 03 Jun 10 00:30   
I'd like to like Timepiece but it worries me that on her three defeats, she was favourite each time. Is she a morning glory? 

its also worrying that shes had two runs at further than a mile- as a three year old- and been beaten both times. many oaks winners run well at distances up to a mile then improve markedly when stepped up in distance on oaks day- or have already run in excess of a mile prior to the oaks and have winning form, or at worst beaten once; if anything her form has been regressive this year

"It is difficult to split our two fillies but Aviate has done every thing right," he said on his website. "I think she will get the trip as she settles well and has a good turn of foot.

"Timepiece has not shown the ability that I feel she has in her on her two starts this year but on her home work and ridden differently I can see her running a big race."

Cecil said there were a number of unknown quantities in the race but picked out Rumoush, Sajjhaa and Snow Fairy as three rivals he respected.

Race looks competitive as there are a lot of bubbles to be burst in it however Imo this big field with cover is miles from the small field Lingfield race and will prove ideal for her to stay in cruise control off the lead while the none staters drop off the pace.

I'm on Rumoush at tasty prices already, so have laid some off and backed Ceilidh House and Sajjhaa.

Just saw Sajjhaa's Sandown run for the first time

Any excuse for Caberat's poor performance in the Musidora? As a 2yo she looked good anyway.

I'm hoping that Timepiece finally comes good on the big day, but Akdarena is the one I fear most.  She's the top-rated filly on official figures and must go close.

Have reviewed the races again and getting the vibe Sajjhaa is going to be the biggest danger to Timepiece after initially not having the usual gut feeling for her ... laid off for free bet on Timepiece but tempted to shift some onto Sajjhaa ... Jarvis my fav for fillies after HRAC can she overcome inexperience though?

gl all.

Either Timepiece or Aviate would be a good result for me but it looks wide open and not a race i'd want to risk any more cash. Already lost out on You'll Be Mine.

Snow fairy AP @22,place @5,gluckers all [:p]

sinndar001: AOB: 'first run of season and could have done w a stronger pace'...if that is an excuse.

Akdarena on the nose at 12/1
Remember When e/w at 25/1

Good Luck all

Bolger has said absolutely nothing about Akdarena in the run up to this.  Yet there keeps being snippets of info about 'money from Ireland' and 'fancied by shrewdies'.

Has Jim learnt to stfu?

Hoping the horse does the talking etc...

MARIE DE MEDICI each way... good form, fits most of the criteroa for from previous oaks winners
Rumoush to win
gl

If Gertrude keeps drifting on here I may be able to top-up at 33s

jair1970 on Sporting Life Jimbo said she is ok and doesnt need to lead

Jim was sleeping at the time imo.

dirk st. skiresort  04 Jun 10  16.14

HRAC looked nervous to me so I shifted my entire ante-post book onto Snow Fairy and covered on Meeznah.  Brilliant to be proven right as ever and another 20k win.

Finished level as before-timed below

Had a free bet to win 5.2k on Timepiece ... not to be, ended up more like a handicap than a Classic.

I feel a tad silly putting a lot of devotion into ante post bets and chat, and walking away empty handed. Prep races and hype and an illusion.

that should are an illusion

Patience Graeme83 ... you need patience.

I have patience. I've waited a long time for this race. I just think i spend too much time talking about the who and the how, the when and the why.

Well done to the few (including turnip turns and downallstar) who had the courage and foresight to back the winner.  A level race for me - like Kirk I had a free bet to win nearly 6K on Timepiece but never fancied anything else seriously enough to get involved.  The thing that struck me when I watched the head-on replay was how many of the runners clearly failed to act on the track.  Maybe some of them were getting tired (there were a number of non-stayers) but several of the fillies were rolling all over the place in the last couple of furlongs.  The camber at Epsom makes the Oaks and Derby a bit of a lottery for ante-post punters.