Horse Antepost
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my fancys for this years oaks,,which i usually do pretty well, sagacious,,and timepiece,,i have already backed both of these,,not for great amounts but ive had a dabble,,25.1 20.1 etc,,think they could both end up at the head of the market,,got a slight preference for sagacious, but henry really likes having a go at the oaks,,so heres hoping,,
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i do pretty well in this race myself and i really like timepiece also. She really battled on well to win her last race which was great to see. Half Sister to Father Time and Passage of Time. Tom Queally: "she's even more masculine in her shape than Father Time." Henry is a genius with the fillies, the clues are all there, i've backed her already and will be again.
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I would fancy Nurture to beat Timepiece next time.....
never mind the other 50 potential oaks fancies |
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well notenough..fair comment,why dont you put your oak fancies up,,come june we,l see who was the luckiest!!
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It is quite possible that we haven't seen much of this year's oaks winner.....The last 2 had only won a maiden at this stage.
So I am going to plump for a team that have done it before...Ceilidh House.She will stay, she looked v v green on debut ,but won going away against colts. |
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interesting choice,could turn out to be a good un..have you backed her accordingly??
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Not yet...
Are you sure Timepiece will stay?Passage of Time did she really get 12f? And Dansili is more of a stamina influence than zamindar,isnt he? |
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apparently ,,the apple of henrys eye ,she is,and hes adamant that shes his oaks horse,,thats good enough for me,,but i have equal stake on timepiece and sagacious who i really like,,i have had small stakes on modeyra at big odds as well,
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.........and hes adamant that shes his oaks horse
No offence meant but do you have a source for that ? I ask because right now he would appear to have 3 or 4 nicely bred potential big improvers all of which could be major players. |
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dd,no offence taken,your right he has got a smashing bunch of fillys this season, lets hope they all stay fit and well. the stable ,well some of the stable really do like this filly a lot,,fact, and she has been backed in the last few weeks for the oaks,,read into this what you will,
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That's fine. Glad you didn't take it the wrong way.
Good luck. |
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Timepiece is the one for me at this stage. Henry's comments after this filly's narrow Listed win at Newmarket are quite revealing: "I promise you haven't seen the best of her - she didn't like the ground and had gone over the top. I nearly put her away after she had won at Lingfield but she seemed well enough at home." After the filly's maiden win at Lingfield Mike Marshall (assistant trainer) said: "She's a lovely filly. She has a bit more substance than Passage of Time and Father Time [her half-siblings], and hopefully there are great things to come." By Zamindar (sire of the great Zarkava) out of 12f winner Clepsydra (by Sadler's Wells) she has the pedigree and scope to develop into a top-class middle distance filly this year. 10f may turn out to be her best trip but she has good prospects of getting the Oaks trip.
Field Day (Brian Meehan) looks a cracking middle distance prospect and is another for the shortlist. Sagacious is certain to stay but she won on heavy ground first time and I wonder whether she will be equally effective on quick ground (haven't had a chance to check the pedigree on that score). |
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The one i'm looking forward to is YOU'LL BE MINE think she will be suited to the up in trip is bred for it lightly raced as a two year old.
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Sagacious is certainly not guaranteed to stay 12f. Her full sister Shreyas certainly doesn't appear to stay 12f having being well beaten each time she has tried.
All her (Shreyas) wins have been over 8 and 9f. Shreyas has won on good to firm. Bolger also trains Shreyas. |
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Shreyas hasn't performed quite so well over 12f as she has over shorter trips, it's true, but her run at Leopardstown over 12f was inconclusive - she never really got into the race. I think Sagacious is sure to stay 12f - she's won over a mile on heavy ground as a two-year-old, she's a Dalakhani half-sister to Youmzain, and her dam (by Sadler's Wells) was a half-sister to Pilsudski.
You'll Be Mine ran well in the Fillies Mile and is sure to get further, being out of Quarter Moon, but is she the best of O'Brien's Oaks prospects? I prefer Cabaret, who looked an exciting prospect when winning her Group 3 by 4½ lengths last summer. She's by Galileo out of a dam from the family of smart stayer El Conquistador and Vermeille winner Pearly Shells. You can forget her final race of last season in the Prix Marcel Boussac (her saddle slipped and Johnny Murtagh allowed her to come home in her own time). |
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some great research and info given there,,obviously how they have trained on is a different matter , hopefully a dry spring and some sunshine on their backs, and wel see them looking there best, for me its still timepiece, and sagacious , hoping to do them in ew doubles with elusive pimpernel , and workforce in the derby,,smallishstakes but could be a little bit of value..gd luck to us all,
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Surely the ability to stay is more important than latent talent?I just don't think Timepiece will stay.
I can't have Field Day....Meehan and classics are not a happy combination(Delegator apart). |
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There has to be a question mark over Timepiece staying 12f on pedigree.
On the other hand the style of her Newmarket win suggested she'll be well suited by middle distances at three. |
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Rosanara is one that I find interesting.
Probably a stupid question this, but why wouldn't Special Duty run in the Oaks? |
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Rosanara is one that I find interesting.
Probably a stupid question this, but why wouldn't Special Duty run in the Oaks? |
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augustine..then do you think Nurture will stay 12f?They both ran the same race,and were seperated by a nose.
Her pedigree says she has a snowballs chance of getting 12f |
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No, I don't.
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so basing the idea that timepiece will stay 12fon her Newmarket run, doesn't make sense, imo.
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I didn't say that Timepiece would stay 12f. On pedigree, there's clearly a doubt although I wouldn't want to be dogmatic about it. I was merely pointing out that she gives the impression, based on her way of racing, that she may well stay that trip. All will be revealed in due course.
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Whilst one can never be dogmatic about these things, I'm reasonably confident (90%) that Timepiece will stay 12f OK. Henry Cecil knows this family very well, having trained the dam Clepsydra (12f winner by Sadler's Wells) and grand-dam Quandary (9-10f winner, stayed 10f really well but was never tried over further). Henry also trained Timepiece's siblings Father Time, Passage Of Time, Timetable and Gems Of Araby.
Father Time (by Dansili) stayed 12f really well (impressive winner of King Edward VII Stakes) but didn't last home over an extended 14f in the Leger. Passage Of Time (also by Dansili) won a Group 1 over 10f at two and her two best subsequent performances were over 11-12f (when placed in both the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf and the Prix Vermeille). Timetable (by Observatory) won comfortably over 10f on his final career start (his one and only attempt at the trip), shaping as though he would have stayed further. Gems Of Araby (by Zafonic) was a close runner-up in a 10f maiden on her second start (despite taking a keen hold and running green) but patently failed to progress. Sandglass (also by Zafonic) was an impressive winner of a 10f maiden, looking like a filly that would certainly stay further, but she finished lame on her only attempt at 12f in the Galtres Stakes subsequently. All five of Timepiece's siblings listed above were sired by milers and either stayed 12f or shaped as though they would have done so if their careers had not been cut short or if they had not failed to progress. Father Time and Passage Of Time certainly stayed 12f. Timetable and Gems Of Araby stayed 10f and would probably have stayed further but were never given the chance to prove it. Sandglass got 10f really well and would almost certainly have stayed further. Dansili has sired a number of classy 12f horses, notably Arc winner Rail Link and Grand Prix de Paris winner Zambezi Sun; his progeny stats indicate that he does very well with his middle distance runners (14% winners to runners over 10-11f and 15% winners to runners over 12-13f). Zafonic sired a number of 12f winners, such as Munsef and Zarfoot, but his middle distance progeny stats are not quite so impressive (11% winners to runners over 10-11f and 11% winners to runners over 12-13f). Timepiece's sire Zamindar, a full brother to Zafonic, has already sired the unbeaten Arc winner Zarkava as well as a number of other middle distance horses such as Group 2 12f winner Crossharbour; his progeny stats are 7% winners to runners over 10-11f, 11% winners to runners over 12-13f (the same as Zafonic) and, amazingly, 20% winners to runners over 14f+ (though to be fair the latter sample is very small!). I'm confident that Zamindar will continue to sire his share of top-class 12f performers and I'm very hopeful that Timepiece will fall into that category. Her next run (almost certainly in an Oaks trial such as the Musidora or the Newbury trial) will tell us more. |
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james,what a fantastic in depth write up,,well done
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Could Timepiece not run in the guineas? only one bookie is quoting.
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She's in the same ownership as the favourite Special Duty, so unlikely to run in the Guineas I'd have thought (especially as she's likely to improve over a longer trip).
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makes sense. cheers james
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Sagacious.
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I think Pipette is a dark horse for the Oaks. She is bred to stay middle distances (stamina on the distaff side of her pedigree, half brother According a leading fancy for the Triumph Hurdle!) and she won nicely on debut at Salisbury, something that Andrew Balding's 2yos don't often do, suggesting she's above average. She then ran as though in need of further when a staying on third behind Electric Feel in the 7f Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury, just failing to grab second in testing ground, being given plenty to do IMO, though it could be argued she was slightly outpaced before picking up in the closing stages. Of course, she needs to improve a tremendous amount of be seriously considered, but certainly bred to make a better 3yo, and the best is surely yet to come, so it was to her credit she revealed so much ability as a juvenile.
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re: Pipette. On the plus side, her half-brothers Day Or Night (by Daylami) and According (by Dalakhani) won over 12-14f in France; and her half-sister Have Fun (by Indian Ridge) won over 11f in the provinces. The dam Amaryllis (by Sadler's Wells) won over 8-9f in France and was placed over 10f, but was never tried over further. So I'd say she's sure to stay 10f and possibly further. She was staying on well at the end of the Radley Stakes and has plenty of physical scope to improve further. On the minus side, both her runs to date have been on soft ground and her pedigree (by Pivotal out of a Sadler's Wells mare) suggests that she may not be suited by really quick ground - most of the family, including her siblings, have shown their best form on a soft surface. She should be OK on good ground, but good/firm at Epsom in June may be far from ideal. Definitely one to follow on an easy surface though.
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Timepiece was backed into 16s (from 20s) with Hillls today. 20s may still be available in one or two places. I missed the 25s, but am happy with 20s.
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Yes got the 25-1 with the Tote a month ago , and 33-1 with 365.
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You'll be mine has shortened up a bit for the race must be my tipping :)
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Hope you took the 50-1 with SJames ( RVW )
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Henry Cecil reports that Principal Role and Timepiece are both wintering well (Raceform Update).
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LOL. Let me know the ones that have gone backwards thru the winter....i wont hold my breath
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At least they're not on the easy list due to injury.
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Is it just me, or can everyone see little boxes containing the letters 'FF' and 'FD' (or is it 'FO'?) after every letter of every previous contribution to this thread? What's it all about?
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