Special Duty

I have referred to this two-year-old filly on a couple of other threads and mentioned it as one to look out for in yesterday's Prix Robert Papin at Maisons-Laffitte. Just for the record here's the earlier post (in response to one from ben10):

"I had already noted the two French fillies [Sorciere and Dolled Up]. I haven't seen a recording of the Prix Yacowlef (I don't think it was covered by either ATR or RUK) but apparently the winner took the lead early on and was never really challenged. Runner-up Special Duty was a bit slowly away and ran a bit green. I'm impressed by the fact that Sorciere managed to beat Special Duty, as I had been expecting a big run from the latter, who seems to be well regarded by Criquette Head-Maarek. Criquette has used this race as the launch pad for several of her best fillies in recent years, including Group 1 winners Gold Splash, Pas De Reponse and African Rose. Special Duty is by Hennessy out of Quest To Peak (an unraced full-sister to the brilliant Sightseek, who won seven Grade 1 races up to 9f, and half-sister to 10f Grade 1 winner Tates Creek). On breeding she's sure to get a mile, so she must be a very useful filly to have run so well over 5f on debut in what looks to have been quite a hot Listed race. The winner Sorciere must also be rated a top prospect and, as you rightly point out, she should get 7f or a mile, being by Orpen out of the miler Serandine (a half-sister to Shaka, who won the 11f Prix Hocquart and was third in the French Derby). Sorciere has been given a Racing Post Rating of 99, which is superb for a debutante, and Special Duty is rated 94. I'll be very surprised if they're not both up to winning Group races. Sorciere would have to be reckoned a prospective Guineas filly if she weren't trained by Carlos Lerner (a trainer not noted for his cross-channel raids). She may now be aimed at the Prix Morny, according to the race report on www.frogsracing.com. The trainer says that Sorciere is not very big, but she has a big engine. Special Duty is the one that appeals to me as a potential Guineas filly and I'll be following her progress with great interest."

Special Duty surpassed my expectations in beating the highly touted favourite in yesterday's Prix Robert Papin (the unbeaten colt Siyouni, who had previously won the Listed Prix la Fleche in a canter), at the surprisingly generous odds of 15/2. Criquette Head-Maarek has trained many top class fillies in her time and says that this one is most progressive and will now head for the Prix Morny (and a potentially mouth-watering clash with Canford Cliffs). Considering her breeding, it is highly encouraging that she has managed to win a competitive Group 2 over an inadequate trip on only her second start. As on her debut in the Prix Yacowlef she ran a bit green, having to race on the outside, hung left, changed her legs, and even jumped a shadow on her way, but nevertheless went away when the favourite Siyouni came on her inside a furlong out and scored comfortably by 1½ lengths.

The form has a very solid look to it - in addition to Siyouni she beat Dolled Up (winner of the Group 3 Prix du Bois) and the previously unbeaten Italian Group 3 winner Orpen Shadow. She has been given a provisional Racing Post Rating of 109, which puts her second only to Queen Mary winner Jealous Again in the juvenile fillies rankings. The winning time was nothing special (the race was run on g/soft ground) and was more than a second slower than Natagora's winning time two years ago, but was still quicker than Divine Proportions' winning time in this race five years ago and was one of the fastest in recent years.

One slight concern is the fact that she is a daughter of Hennessy, whose only Group 1 winner in Europe to date was the brilliant juvenile (and now sire) Johannesburg. Hennessy himself was lightly raced and his best performance was a close second to Unbridled's Song in the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile over 8½f. His son Johannesburg cleaned up in the top 6f juvenile races (including the Phoenix Stakes, Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes) before going one better than his sire by winning the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Hennessy's best progeny to date have raced in America, Australia and (to a lesser extent) Japan. His best performers in Europe (apart from Johannesburg) have been: Mousse Au Chocolat (second in Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale and winner of Listed 8f race at two, very useful miler at three); Short Dance (12 length winner of Listed 8f race at three); Perigee Moon (winner of Gr.3 Killavullan Stakes over 7f at two); Wiseman's Ferry (second to Joahnnesburg in Gr.3 Anglesey Stakes at two, later winner of Gr.3 in US over 9f); Reve Lunaire (winner of 9½f Listed race at Deauville); Set Alight (winner of Gr.3 Prix Thomas Bryon over 8f at two). He has also produced a number of Gr.1 winners around the world, mostly over 8f+. Hennessy's relative lack of success with his runners in Europe is a slight worry, but this is more than outweighed by the immense promise Special Duty has shown in her two races.

Special Duty looks sure to progress with racing and although she possesses plenty of speed she should stay a mile. She is a top class prospect and whatever she manages to achieve against Canford Cliffs in the Prix Morny she will surely take some beating in the Cheveley Park Stakes (a race Criquette favours as a preparation for the 1000 Guineas). She is now my top long-term fancy for next year's Guineas: I have backed her at 50s (prior to yesterday's race) and at 33s (after the race).

Anyone else got any thoughts about this filly (form, breeding etc)?