back from hols imo

just back from hols too

lay
brazil
france
Holland
Belgium

imo

bhb w@nks maybe?

Open off.

Rickie Fowler, win only, joint 2nd
Dubuisson and Lowry, ew first 8 places.
Joint 9th.

Me and mr EIRROG.

Couldn't make it up

bawz

it's been like this since ethel left, her and billy
went up to gretna but never came back, so as usual
it's billys fault

Dunters Punters team recruiting for undecideds team comp' again johnn

once again the betfair video service is unavailable
has betfair returned to amatuer status ???

hi m8 long time no speak , am sitting in johnn's living room smelling the cooking mrs Johns making for breakie :P

no

its a funny ole game saint !

Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo)
•    Winner: £368,615
•    Runners: 15
•    Distance: 1m6f132y
•    Going: Good To Soft
•    Channel: CH4
Forecast: Dry all week, sunny later in the week (bastards better not water). Predicted ground for Saturday:  Good.
Alex My Boy: Mark Johnston.
Progressive, last run at Goodwood was best, but official rating of 105 means plenty more may be needed.  Ground should be fine, and breeding suggests he has every chance of staying, which he will clearly need to do given his rating.

Forever Now; John Gosden.
Virtually identical profile to Alex My Boy. Rated 106, beat named at Goodwood last time up. Also well bred, being a Galileo, similar chance to above horse.

Granddukeoftuscany: APOB.
Well behind Snow Sky and Postponed in the Voltiguer, with Danehill (confirmed miler) as Dam, extra 2f unlikely to help. No GB rating, run at York equated to a rating of 101.

Hartnell: Mark Johnston
Hugely disappointing at York after some decent runs earlier in the season, notably when he defied his breeding to win over a (slowly run) 2m at Ascot in the Queens Vase, belying his speed on the dam side of his pedigree to do so. Similar form to Windshear, also second to Snow Sky in Lingfield trial.

Kings Fete: Stoutey
Progressive horse out of handicaps this year, form ties in with top two. Tenderly handled at Goodwood this year, but being by Kings Best out of a Singspiel mare who only got 10f, a reasonably run 14.5f would look to hinder his chance, as opposed to help.

Kingston Hill: Roger “will he, won’t he” Varian
OR of 120 puts him clear of the field over 12f, but this is 14f. His run at Sandown was poor, but on the g/f ground Varian seems keen to avoid. Doubts if he’ll run, with a dry and sunny week forecast, but I hope he does, to make the market. Being a Mastercraftsman out of a 10f mare, he’s far from a certain stayer, whatever the ground.

Marzocco: John Gosden
Well beaten in the Voltigeur, needs a huge improvement to win here. Only ever won on the sand at Kempton, breeding not obviously suited to this trip, although Lucarno sluiced in here a few years back for the same sire and stable.

Min Allemrat: Marco Botti
Lightly raced, beaten 5L in a Listed race at Deauville last time up. Needs to improve about 20lb, passed over readily.


Odeon: James Given
8L behind Snow Sky in the Voltiguer, dam a miler, little chance.


Romsdal: John Gosden
3rd in the Derby behind Kingston Hill, run in the King George too bad to be true (nearly pulled up) when interesting backed from 25s to 12s there. (Buick did select Eagle Top before him.)  Entered in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot, so despite his Halling/Singspiel breeding, his trainer seems convinced he is a stayer. With no runs at 2 and 5x runs at 3, he is entitled to improve again if over whatever bothered him at Ascot. Not obviously catching Kingston Hill at Epsom…

Scotland: Andrew Balding
Rated 109 and behind Snow Sky at Goodwood, breeding suggests possible improvement for the trip. 20/1 might be a shade too big if he does.


Snow Sky: Stoute
Progressive, consistent and rated 111, but with no noticeable turn of foot. Form of several of his races this season put a lot of Saturday’s runners behind him, so if he stays he could be hard to keep out of the frame. Breeding not totally convincing, but Nayef won over 1m4f at Group 1 level, and Snow Sky does look like he will stay, albeit perhaps not as quickly needed, perhaps.

Somewhat; Mark Johnston
Has run a million times, but finished in front of Kingston Hill at Sandown. One is 5/2, one is 50/1. Has also finished behind Snow Sky.  The Dynaformer/Lucarno angle gives hope from a breeding perspective. Not impossible he could sneak into the frame at rewarding odds.

Windshear: Richard Hannon
Fast finishing second to Snow Sky at Goodwood, but suspect that may have flattered him: wouldn’t be confident that a slog down the Town Moor would particularly suit him more than Snow Sky, although very stoutly bred being a Hurricane Run out of a Hernando mare.  Looks to be one of the few with a genuine turn of foot. Chances.

Dosages

Horse                     DP       DI       CD
ALEX MY BOY        26       0.58     -0.31
FOREVER NOW      22       0.76     -0.05
GRANDDUKEOF'     30       1.07      0.17
HARTNELL              26       0.86      0.04
KINGFISHER            24       0.92      0.17
KINGS FETE            28       0.87      0.07
KINGSTON HILL       20       0.90      0.10
MARZOCCO            28       1.95      0.50
MIN ALEMARAT      24       1.09      0.21
ODEON                  24       1.09      0.21
ROMSDAL              20       0.74     -0.05
SCOTLAND            20       0.54     -0.20
SNOW SKY           18       1.25      0.39
SOMEWHAT          38       1.81      0.47
WINDSHEAR          30       0.54     -0.33

Dosage Profile:
16/16 had 16 points or more in their DP
12/16 had 22 points or more in their DP
Dosage Index:
15/16 had a DI of 1.48 or below
13/16 had a DI of 1.07 or below
0/16 had a DI of 0.68 or below
Centre of Distribution:
14/16 had a CD of .026 or below
0/16 had a CD of -0.13 or below
So on that basis, none of the first four have good profiles on dosage, over the three categories.

In terms of form:
Kingston Hill is a terrible price at 5/2, given that his price is based on one piece of form, his second in the Derby. His last run was appalling, and he has been withdrawn from his last two races due to the ground not being soft enough. He also holds an engagement in the Prix Niel this weekend, and will go there if the ground at Doncaster is too firm. Given his breeding, he’s far from certain to stay, his Sire barely stayed a mile and a quarter, though to be fair he didn’t look to be stopping in the Derby. The rest are a combination of formlines and breeding quandaries, but the two that appeal to me are the two who fought out the finish of the Gordon Stakes, Snow Sky and Windshear. Snow Sky looks as if he will stay, albeit at once pace, but he may be one of these horses who is hard to pass. The one I am going to take to fight out the finish with him is Windshear. His pedigree screams stamina with the Hurricane Run/Hernando influences, and he met trouble in running behind Snow Sky. I think the key to him is the rider, Richard Hughes. If he can hold onto him for long enough and creep behind the chasers down the straight, he may well be the only horse with the turn of foot to put the race to bed in the last 100 yards. He looks to be able to go on most types of ground, and despite not being prolific in terms of actually winning, on breeding I’d be as confident as you can be that this extra distance will suit, whereas it looks as if it will inconvenience many others.

1.    Windshear
2.    Snow Sky
3.    Scotland

Good luck!

I really fancy THE FAV

Windshear and Snow Sky ran virtually to the ounce in terms of their ratings, KH stayed every yard despite my doubts at a price that didn't seem like value to me. No complaints here, enjoyed the race.

We have some in the cupboard. Think they were best before sometime in 1973.

Have the ramifications of membership of the ABC club been considered in the Scotland Independence Referendum? I can't find my rule book. I fear it may have been lost during a bruising session in the dungeon with Ethel.

Sennockian Star must have a massive chance today.