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Grand National trends
Grand National trends
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Replies: 231
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ttt
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Been keeping an eye on the thread; what are the horses that meet the trends?
I think ive got Dooneys Gate, Ballyfitz, Equus Maximum, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor??? |
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I'm using 1 main trend at the mo that has given 9 of the last 11 winners. Am now giving some serious thought of the best way to narrow it down further. Of these, the ones that are probably too high in the weights are: Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Appalachi,
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Whoops, wrong button.............and Comply or Die.
The borderline ones on weight are Niche Market, Tricky Trickster, and Dream Alliance. The ones at the weights who do qualify are: My Will, Snowy Morning,Character Building, Eric's Charm, King John's Castle, Arbor Supreme, |
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Damn! Done it again! ....and Maljimar. All guaranteed a run.
Hello Bud, Flintoff and a few others need to make the cut. :) |
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to the
FRONT Come on Big FELLA ;) |
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The problem that I have with trends is that they are quite often retrospective.
Before Hedgehunter won the National everybody was saying that no horse over 11 stone could win. Low and behold, a year later the trend is increased to 11-1 to convieniently include his result. What happens if a horse wins of 11-2 this year? Just bump the trend up 1 more pound for next Season. And what about the French bred Stat? I suppose we can all forget about Mon Momes fluke win last year eh? Imo the race is not the same as it was 10 years ago. Compression of the weights will surely see one of the top weights win this soon. For all the doubters out there, answer this question.... Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight? Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho. Trends rightly have a place when analysing a race, but they should not be to the exclusion of all other information imho. |
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If your uncomfortable about the 11st or 11st 1lb trend look at the weight thing from another angle. No horse has won carrying more than 12lbs above bottom weight in the last 20 years. For those who can be bothered I've posted some more stats about the sort of horse who places carrying over 11st on the 'succinct analysis' thread on the Antepost forum.
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Have had a read already lord, and tbh that idea makes a whole lot more sense to me.
Still, I am going against the grain this year. Best of luck to you |
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And to you poc :) Just a reminder for folks. In the last 20 years no horse has won or placed within 15L of the winner of the GN carrying 11st or more without either having run well in the GN before or running reasonably in either the Cheltenham Gold Cup or Irish Hennessy. Amazing but true ...
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What about Mon Mome?
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Your right alex. I originally did the stats looking at horses carrying over 11st 1lb then checked back and thought they worked for 11st and over. Forgot about Mon Mome last year though - it pays him a great complement imo and makes you wonder what would have happened when he carried 10.11 the previous year and was hampered at Bechers second time round. Works for 11st 1lb and over though if you count Hedgehunters fall at the final fence in 3rd as a good run in the GN !
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Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight?
Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho. Hey Cake, hope all good with you. In regard of the above, I don't know the answer, but I always consider additonal weight this way; If I asked you to stay awake for an hour, no doubt you could do it. But if I asked you to stay awake for an hour after you had not slept for say 24 hours then it might not be so easy. Same with say 48 hours etc. You don't know the point at which the extra hour becomes so painful, it is like torture. Same with weight. At some point, 11st, 11st 1, 11st 2 etc, an extra 1/2 pound becomes unmanageable. GL for saturday :) |
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Re:Weight, have you chaps read paul nicholls' book? He basically says a few pounds here or there makes no difference, and talks about how he and others used to ** the scales if they were a bit heavy sometimes. He felt jockey strength and horse's jumping has more bearing on the result. But then he hasn't won a national yet has he?
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How many of the original qualifiers are left in at this stage?
For me trends are important; they are my angle into a race and I think form is way over-played and therefore overbet. |
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Ellerslie George seems to tick most boxes proper jockey and apart from last race in good form this year.
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Charlton2005 06 Apr 18:34
Would Hedgehunter have won the National with more weight? Anyone who says no is completely**ers imho. Hey Cake, hope all good with you. In regard of the above, I don't know the answer, but I always consider additonal weight this way; If I asked you to stay awake for an hour, no doubt you could do it. But if I asked you to stay awake for an hour after you had not slept for say 24 hours then it might not be so easy. Same with say 48 hours etc. You don't know the point at which the extra hour becomes so painful, it is like torture. Same with weight. At some point, 11st, 11st 1, 11st 2 etc, an extra 1/2 pound becomes unmanageable. GL for saturday Hey mate, all good here but on a poor run tbh. I take where you are coming from but in that race the top weight finished second. In all likelihood if Hedgehunter couldn't carry the extra weight(which I cannot believe), then the weight trend would have been smashed by Royal Auclair instead. Tbh I was just trying to point out how misleading some stats are. I would far rather somebody state that "9/10 horses have won with 11st or less" rather than manipulating it the following year to "10/10 carried 11-1 or less". I hope Madison De Berlais wins, then we can have a new trend for next year. "10/10 winners had carried 11-10 or less" :p Best of luck to you btw |
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And to you Cake. Hope things turn for you soon.
:) |
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cryoftruth 19 Mar 23:35
One contributer has noted that according to trends "nothing can win this year". Sorry but after about 4 years banging on about the folly of blindly looking at trends, there is a major problem with predicting future results from past results and trying to pick winners from apparent trends is that there is a major problem with the basic logic of the theory. The problem is that it is complete b0llox. Cry, with respect to all, THIS is not the thread to come on and talk about your opposition to trends. The OP tipped, in his first post, the first three past the post from 4 horses in Silver Birch's national. Sorry but you cannot argue with that and definitely not on here. |
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ttt
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Would be sad if we lost this thread imo
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What's happening to the forum FFT, cba to read about it. :)
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Will all of the existing discussion posts and comments be migrated to the new forum platform?
We will migrate all threads with activity in the last 6 months. This means that we will migrate threads created in the last 6 months, as well as all threads that have been posted to in the last 6 months. However, due to the volume of threads and nature of the content on the Horse Racing forum, we will only be migrating threads that have been posted to in the last month. |
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TY
Can someone please find Money Tree's Breeders Cup 1-2-3 thread as well as his Mon Mome thread :) |
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Money tree thread is a no go,won't let me bring it back
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money tree's 3 point was ttt'd yesterday
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Thanks FFT, that's one for the ages
:) |
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i cannot post on it
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posted under his patent account, have brought it back :)
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Patent 4888221 04 Apr 09:24
FREE BETS ARE FUN!! Im laying Ap for the place his luck will not help him here today. Mon mome is my win lay. And if the funds are avaliable i will lay the pipe outsider that some fool was trying to ramp last night. To see this in the "First Edition" state still makes me cry laughing. |
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ttt
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Just back the cross country winner-Chelters
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