Lookin At Lucky

B-)

Worht taking on for debut on dirt iyo?

Won't win the Derby

Anyone back this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NSssbm8jvc

got some bottle this horse.

http://images.racingpost.com/pdfs/lookinatlucky2412.pdf

pedigree analysis.

ben10 13 Mar 23:52
Anyone back this?

Fishing for victims for the Aftertiming thread! Despicable! :0

Fav out of the race.

Come on Lucky B-)

Shades on TD B-)

Harsh on fav backers though :(

yeah, felt bad for a minute, then I put the shades back on B-)

6s still available.

tempted to have a little cover on Sidneys.

beat us lto, but we had no sort of run and weren't primed for it. SC did do it nicely.

Yep slow at changing prices, the 6 should be 3 now? Had a small amount of 9 on Sid.

yep, reckon we'll be fav now.

i'm on at nice prices, nicked some double figures after the Breeders Cup. Gone in again now though.

B-)

Priced up after Breeders? Never seen it. The first I seen was 12/1 so took it, slip says 19/01/10.

Prices just gone ;\ ;\

yeah, straight after the race!

are you onboard as well BJG ? B-)

Me thinks BJG smashed in ;)

Had a bit e/w @ 6s

Fav OUT !

sidney's candy is a brute. He's my #1 pick with Awesome Act the saver.

needs a good stall...first 5 so he can conserve as much energy as possible...and to prove his stamina. this is going to be different than those slow fractions he pulled in the SA Derby.

fancied awesome act to reverse the form with eskendyera anyway so makes sense now.

Good stuff....

Awesome Act working the house down at Churchill. Loves the place...Julien Leproux extremely confident this is his time to win the derby.

Took some of LAL today as well as Awesome Act, other one I was interested in was Eskendereya's stablemate Devil May Care, I assume she'll be given her chance now?

thats the word...velasquez will switch to her now.

Looking At Lucky.....Top class final gallop on a sloppy sealed track.

Endorsement fine...just had a scheduled day off...works on wednesday

Pletcher...Devil May Care will ONLY run in the Derby. no decision on interactif as yet.

confirmed...

In: Devil May Care
Out: Interactif and Rule

Looking at Lucky gave his training partner 10lengths but destroyed him in the straight :o

Definitely looks the pick for this race, will love the fast pace and certainly has the talent. Checked out Devil May Care and not sure about her first time up against the colts.

ELG, is it on video anywhere?

http://bit.ly/botbgh

drf reporter....

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/clocker/clocker.html

the gallop...misses out the 10 lengths headstart

cheers ELG.


COME ON LUCKY B-)

what do u guys think of ICE BOX.

florida derby winner...think he's been grossly underestimated imo....excellent triple crown pedigree, confirmed closer with neat turn of foot...bullit workout already this week.

Dublin e/w

http://bit.ly/dmtW8U

drf contender profiles...

Nice one ELG, has all the replays on there too which may come in handy

icebox looks a real player in the belmont later on imo...proper stamina there. nick zito looves that race too. just a nice drive down from saratoga.

Yeah was thinking the 12 might be more suitable, do you reckon they will hold him right out the back in a 20 runner race?

dunno...reckon they'll go for a high draw with him....keep him out wide so he can get a clear run. seems experieced enough to handle him out there.

Tuesday works..

Conveyance blitzed 5furlongs in 59.59

and

Awesome Act nice and easy 1/2 mile in 48.44

Noseda just keeping him ticking over. He'll be running 46 to 47 seconds in the derby so thats a please workout today for what it was.

Free Form Guide up

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/contenders/pps/042710_derby_contenders.pdf

i dont work for drf btw.

The market is headed by Lookin At Lucky, a general 7-2 chance, with Sidney's Candy next best at around 5-1.

Lookin At Lucky's trainer Bob Baffert does not agree with those prices though.

He said: "My horse shouldn't be favourite.

"Sidney's Candy beat me by nearly five lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. He should be favourite."


Not sure I agree with that, don't know what LAL would have done and also the front running Sindeys Candy might struggle with other pace setters taking him on.

THE DRAW AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

carnage

Sidney's Candy in Stall 20/20

Looking At Lucky in #1

Bob Baffret: Plan A is to break Well...Plan B is We're Screwed

hahahahaha BRILLIANT

that's a horrendous draw for Sidneys isnt it?

Probably because he'll use up a lot of energy getting across to the front but would say LAL's is worse, will probably need some luck from there.

it's only a bad draw if he misses the break, which would mean all chance is gone. ;\

his draw in the Juvenile was worse :_|

Will be tough for him...no room for error...needs the perfect break.

Conveyance will be shooting for the lead from #12 so he's got something to follow through.

My initial thought from the draw is - f*ck me the pace is going red hot here.

Sort of leaning toward the horses who are going to be midpack or held up futher back.

Think you're right ELG, been a few trials that have been taken by front runners so could be some value looking in those races for a classy closer

big brown won from 20/20 a couple years back.

:o

He was a freak tbf

Baffert dejected after Lucky draws the rail
By David Ashforth in Louisville 8:44PM 28 APR 2010

USA: Trainer Bob Baffert, looking to win his fourth Kentucky Derby, made no attempt to disguise his disappointment after favourite Lookin At Lucky was handed the unfavourable draw right on the inside rail in gate one of 20 in Saturday's race.

Last year's US champion juvenile inherited Derby favouritism after Eskendereya was ruled out by injury and was named 3-1 market leader on the Churchill Downs indicative morning line - in effect, a betting forecast - after the draw.

Lookin At Lucky was pushed out to as big as 4-1 with Ladbrokes in Britain after the draw on Wednesday, when Baffert suggested jockey Garrett Gomez will have to use all his skill to overcome the inside post.

"Is he still the favourite?" said Baffert. " Thank God I'd already eaten before I heard the draw.

"He's got to break well," added Baffert, who also trains Conveyance (drawn 12). "Plan A is to break well. Plan B is we're screwed.

"He just can't catch a break, can he? When people have the choice, number 1 or 20 are always the last to be chosen. It hits you but you have to deal with it. Garrett is a very capable rider."

Gomez was criticised for the ride he gave Lookin At Lucky when beaten in the Santa Anita Derby and Baffert said: "Garrett likes to be inside and get a horse in trouble. :^0

"Now he's got there and he's going to have to make the right moves and plays.

"The main thing is that we've got a good horse who has trained well. Now we have to keep him healthy and relaxed. The rest is up to our racing luck."

Imagine a British trainer saying that about Hills or Spencer

looool do u remember the story??? Gomez got back to the weighing room and nearly ko'd Victor Espinoza for cutting him up.

Landed several clean blows according to reports!!!

another positive for being drawn out wide is the possible sloppy track.

been miserable this week and they sealed the track for the workouts but i wonder whats happing satuday...60% chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms forecast.

maybe out wide will be benefitial and avoid all the kickback.

(strawclutching here)

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/pps/derby2010easyform.pdf

easy form ;-)

I'd start with this one then once u absorb it move onto the more detailed one drf do.

they even have a tutorial for the detailed one if u get stuck.

Leaning towards Icebox...going for the pace overload angle and him picking up the pieces with that late sustained run.

That the one we said might be better for the Belmont?

yep...but I've counted about 7 out and out front runners!!!! and then theres that nutcase Conveyance who will blast out from #12 for the first 6-7 furlongs before fading.

going to be a nice pace for him to chase.

Thought so, could be interesting then, will check out the video form later.

Poor old Lucky :(

Got murdered twice in the first 1-2 furlongs....ran a great race to finish where he did.

Where did he finish?

toughest horse in training

about 6-7th?

Ta, thought I saw him close, but never really had a chance

Yeah watching him now, ran well, might beat winner next time but I have one lined up for the Preakness...

Is there a market open for preakness?

Do we keep the faith then

YES

WOOOOHOOOOO


LOOOKIN AT LUCKYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

ffs had 2 kidneys on lto

wd Gunny for keepin the faith, i didnt

sorry i forgot these

I hope Rhinestone was on today

Top stuff Gunny,well done [;)]  keeping the faith does pay off sometimes [:p]

Was on TD but nowhere near the size of the Kentucky Derby

bombin gunner [:D]

what a horse.

The announcer at Monmouth yesterday called it right...been a muddling season and just glad to have some clarity stamped on the division now.

Lookin @ Lucky No1, Trappe Shot and A Little Warm fighting it out for the no2 slot.

Travers will tell us more in a few weeks.

Has a cold...high temp....still in saratoga.

they found out as they were leaving.

Will miss the Travers....Classic likely to be the no1 target now.

I'd imagine he might run in something like the Pacific Classic G1 later in the year or the Goodwood Stakes G1 to prep him.

Connections of Lookin At Lucky were delighted with the conditionof the Breeders' Cup Classic second favourite after he completed his final major workout for the race on Monday.

 
The three-year-old, winner of the Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational this season, trailed a workmate by 12 lengths in a six-furlong gallop at Hollywood Park before running on strongly in the home stretch to lead at the finish.


Bob Baffert, who trains Lookin At Lucky for Mike Pegram, told the Daily Racing Form: "I wanted that other horse to be way in front. I wanted something for him to focus on. This was his last major work. Now, we'll play the waiting game."

Lookin At Lucky's jockey Martin Garcia was more effusive about his mount andsaid: "He worked amazing. To ride in that race, and to have a powerful horse, that's great."

peaked too soon?

Bob Baffert trains Richard Kid who misses the classic. Now i remember reading an article a few days ago and Baffert seemed very dissapointed he won't run. From his comments i think Richards Kid was his better hope, and that Lookin at Lucky faces a big ask which will require big improvement.

Richard's Kid wouldn't have a snowballs chance in this race.
Doesn't have the class, only goes on synthetics and Dubai is a far better option.

As for Lucky:
Late May foal - possibly still improving
Dirt is fine
Trip is fine
Comfortably the best 3 year old

Cracking chance imo.

I'm only going on what the trainer said. I know he won the west Coast trial for the BC.



"They're passing up a chance to be champion older horse and maybe Horse of the Year," added Baffert, who will be represented by top three-year-old Lookin At Lucky in the Classic.

Lookin At Lucky worked five furlongs in 1min at Hollywood on Tuesday, and his trainer reported him to have come on for his victory in the Indiana Derby on October 2.

"He came out of it better than he went in it," Baffert told the Form. "He's getting stronger and stronger. He'll have to run better than he ever has."

lookin at lucky had a shocking experience at churchill downs back in may

If he's losing the horse for it to be trained in Dubai then he's obviously going to be disappointed. He wasn't good enough last year when he had conditions in his favour, wouldn't have had a chance of finishing in the first 5 this year.

He'll have to run better than he ever has.

That's true of every horse in the field I think.

As a late closer Baffert probably saw RK as the perfect horse for the way the race will pan out (fast run), that's probably why he's disappointed by that.

Lucky's only 3 losses have been due to bad luck, the last two times were particularly unlucky with a hopeless ride at Santa (the words of his trainer) and then the worst draw in the Derby. I don't think he'll remember his experience at the course as he's stepped up to be better than ever subsequently after a run of bad racing experiences. He looks like he'll get first run on most of the field and the question will be if the likes of Blame and Zenyatta can burst through the big field late. That's the way I see it anyway.

Ben, i think he could get unlucky again. His best runs have come in smaller fields and even his victory this year in a 12 runner race he came wide and the three horses closest to him in the race have won 1 between them this year. If we get a full field,which looks likely i think he could be toast

Could be a good point, worth waiting for the draw perhaps?