SNA rp trophy form............shot to bits

Well known now that the form of RP is up to sh1t

elusive pimperenl next imo :)

Lord Zenith was 5th( LTO as a 2yo) beaten 2.5 lengths by Silver Grecian, who inturn was one of the also rans in the Dewhurst, so maybe the Dewhurst form is not as bad as some are making out.

OR Lord Zenith has just made the progress from 2-3yo expected for a son of Zamindar from the family of a Irish St Leger winner................very premature to say the form is shot to bits

Middle distance camels only a matter of time.

I would say the form works out about even as SNA beat Mus, by 11 lengths .

Lol he was no where in the RP anyway he aint the first horse from that race to get beaten this year Hanson'D has ran and was beaten already at Lingfeild.

Lord Zenith had all the ticks today anyway. A lot of Jarvis animals get way over backed today another one did

Stormbird 10 Apr 20:42
I would say the form works out about even as SNA beat Mus, by 11 lengths .

What are you saying Storm?

Bit too early to say for sure ,imo , even if I do have my doubts , on account of the farcical pace the race was run at, about the RP Trophy form

The small matter of them going a crawl then asking middle distance horses to sprint off that pace in the RPT where SNA was the only speed horse in it to handle that.

So now you accept he is a speed horse then Kirk?As for the form it wasn't as though he just got home by a length he beat them so comprehensivly,that is some ways even if the field turn out to be moderate he is still so far better than any of them.Only a few weeks to go,very good horse's have a real turn of foot that sets them above the rest...........SNA has that.

I have always said that ... I have also said he has never met top speed horses.

I know Kirk but he will all being well in a couple of weeks he will meet some fast types,I reckon he will lay up with them,then when the start to run on empty he will shoot away from them,winning by about a length.

Surely the fact they went a steady pace & he was held up giving them plenty of start then coming thro like a knife thro butter when asked, when all the others are picking up the pace makes him all the more the real deal imo.
Using Mussafer as a guide to knock the form is bizzare.

SNA won the RP so well last year its very harsh to say the form is shot to bits,he was head and shoulders above the rest of the field that day.

Completely agree with the previous three posts. Last year's RPT was a top class renewal and I have little doubt that the runner-up and third will prove themselves classy performers in their own right this year. It's true that SNA has yet to race against speed horses (i.e. horses that had the speed to win top races over 6f last year), but he has loads of pace himself so I can't see him getting badly outpaced in the Guineas.

jamesp if the first 3 in the RPT are exceptional colts what is your view of the 4th Dancing David? He was only a neck behind Al Zir. He is entered twice this week at Newmarket. He does have a guineas entry, but no Derby.

I'm not sure how anyone can say the form is shot to pieces after two of the back-markers ran ok races on their first starts back after the winter. The collateral form lines of the RP trophy if anything make the race look even stronger in hindsight. I tend to agree that the race was run at a moderate pace though and this will have suited SNA a great deal more than anything else in the race not to mention the softening of the ground that day also.
Next week we will get another indication of the strength of that from when the 5th Morana looks like he will run in the craven and Coordinated Cut runs in the 3yo trophy.

Re: Dancing David I think he gives a solid look to the RP form.
Prior to R.P He won his Nwmkt maiden readily beating Tammathul who subsequently beat QUick Wit @ Doncaster. QUick Wit then won a 18 runner newmarkt maiden.
London Stripe who ran 5th to D.David then won his maiden next time up beating Mass Rally who has subsequently won his next 2 outings.

Dancing David is certainly an exciting prospect and his 4th in the RPT (just behind Al Zir) was a big step up. His earlier maiden form was boosted by the runner-up Tamaathul, who won nicely next time. He's a big, strong colt and although he's a half-brother to a 12f winner (by Fantastic Light), he's from quite a speedy family and a mile should be his trip this year. Morana, 5th in the RPT, shapes more like a staying type and I suspect he lacks the speed to make an impact in the Craven.

You've dropped the mile distance from this take it you accept he beat middle distance horses now at last?

jamesp 11 Apr 12:14


Completely agree with the previous three posts. Last year's RPT was a top class renewal and I have little doubt that the runner-up and third will prove themselves classy performers in their own right this year.

Judging from their pedigrees, I think it is likely that most of the horses that finished without shouting distance of SNA will prove to be milers (or at most 10f horses). That certainly applies to Elusive Pimpernel, Al Zir, Dancing David and Shakespearean. Morana is the only one that shapes like a staying type (i.e. 12f performer).

Keredari finished 3 rd LTO as a 2yo, behind 2 of the also rans in the Dewhurst.

The horses that are coming out and winning which are either boosting or discrediting both the RPT and the D'hurst form most likely have made normal expected progress from 2 to 3 years,on pedigree SNA looks the sort to improve from 2 to 3 and he was already so much better than them,so why on earth does anyone think he wont still be better than any of them.

,so why on earth does anyone think he wont still be better than any of them.

Do you really not know why?

Go on tell me then!I'd love to hear why.

New Approach

Then go and have another look at his win in the RPT you will see SNA has a clear turn of foot,better than New Approach.What do you think will beat him?

To be fair to New Approach, he did win 2 Grp 1s over 7f as a 2yo, and was only just beaten in a photo finish in the 2000G.

Yeh but the winner had the speed to get first run on him

and what is in the field as good as Henry?

Tell us the winner then Ben ?

NA is one of thousands of examples of horses who get beaten by apparently inferior rivals when hot favourites. Now maybe you are the type to back short priced favs, but to suggest that it is unthinkable that every person on earth does not share your view on thisi horse is you is as smart as that strategy.

I don't know who will beat him. As a layer, I don't need to know.

No idea guys but it's niaive to suggest that there's nothing to beat in a race of this nature imo

I am not saying it is impossible that SNA wont get beat,like Charlton says some short priced fav's do get turned over,but still I can't see what will beat him.(Horses that is)

We're we upto with the form now then?

;\

Pretty sure CC didn't run his race in that race, the trainer said he got 'stuck in the mud'

dont think the form is worth a hill of beans

Hanson D the one to work off. Thus the RP form is shot to bits once again.

emmm shot to bits

Gash race wasn't it?

Not looking 2 shabby.

not worth a hill o' beans :^0

Hmmm, not sure the two races are comparable with pace and going

threads where they come back to bite you in the arse, we've all been there imo :p

One shouldn't read too much into these trials, but Elusive Pimpernel was certainly impressive today and it doesn't do any harm to the Racing Post Trophy form (with RPT fourth Dancing David finishing runner-up today). I predicted a few months ago that Elusive Pimpernel would win a Group 1 this year and I stick by that prediction: he definitely appears to be Group 1 class. I have thought ever since the RPT that St Nicholas Abbey would win the Guineas and nothing occurred in the Craven to shake that belief. If Arcano or Canford Cliffs wins the Greenham impressivley and in the style of a horse that will improve for a step up to a mile, then I may start to have a few niggling doubts, but otherwise SNA looks the real deal.

So we're all blindly looking at relative winning margins without consdering the race dynamics then?
Elusive Pimpernel hits a ridiculous flat spot and needs to be shaken up from a long way out, for the RP trophy he was always going to struggle against a horse with SNA's turn of foot off a slow pace. He'll get much, much closer if they go a decent pace at Newmarket. He's also proven on quick ground,

not just the dynamics tho ben it was the style once Johhny changed his hands it was instant acceleration took lengths out of E.P in a matter of strides b4 being eased down like only a top class colt can do.

Very nice :)

Yeah but EP doesn't have that instant turn of foot, that is my point

Ben, SNA was so far superior to EP at Doncaster that, regardless of race dynamics, it's hard to envisage EP reversing the form over a mile. The ground will be the key factor, in my opinion, but even if there's a drought between now and Guineas day, watering should ensure that the ground won't be really firm. There is, of course, the possibility that SNA hasn't trained on as well as EP, but the Guineas comes so early in the year that it's not a major concern. EP does hit a flat spot in his races, but it doesn't appear to have cost him a race - or even a place (so far).

All I'm saying is the bare winning margin flatters SNA in the RP Trophy and that perhaps makes his price false when coupled with the doubts you have just raised above James.

I agree with your bare winning margin remark Ben but you didnt need to be an expereinced racereader to see he won with far more than the bare winning margin of 3 1/2 lengths in hand.
As ive said previously the ground(if very fast) would be the only issue/concern I would have.

Fair comments Geoff, good luck

The concerns are not great enough to tempt me to have a bet on Elusive Pimpernel (or anything else, for that matter) against SNA. But neither do I feel that he is a false price at present. The Greenham might change that, of course.

Like Jamesp I'v e been harping on all winter about the strength of the Acomb / RPT form.

The big question yet to be answered is whether SNA has trained on and will he be 100% on the first Saturday in May? Obviously if it's affirmative to both of those then he is the horse to beat but at 6/1 Elusive Pimpernel is surely an e/w bet to nothing?

I wonder who'll ride him in the Guineas as Moore will presumably be claimed by Stoute. Not sure if he is committed to anything else but Fallon would be an ideal choice imo.

Ahern will ride I assume?

The ground, the size of field and the draw, could all be factors come Guineas day.

I'd agree with you if he was 10/1, but 6/1 is a bit skinny for me, with the likes of Arcano, Canford Cliffs and Awzaan in the wings. I hope he does finish placed in the Guineas, as it will set up the season nicely for the big races later on. If Workforce doesn't run in the Guineas, presumably Ryan Moore would be available.

I've left the guineas alone since I stupidly had a bet prior to the RPT on Al Zir. I think I'll probably leave it alone now as the value for the guineas went about 12 seconds before the end of the RPT, with an audible gasp from the crowd as SNA hit the front.

Moore only rode today because Ahern was serving a suspension. He'll be back on in May.

There is, of course, the possibility that SNA hasn't trained on as well as EP

quite a major concern i would imagine

Strange as it sounds, will SNA be ready for the Guineas ?? Hard to believe he wouldn't be isn't it but RVW and MCM weren't last season. That would be my doubt.

Looking at the race again my impression would be that he wouldnt be the EW bet to nothing that is suggested.
IMO he is a a horse that doesn't do things that quickly and if i were on him i wouldn't want to be drawn near a rail having to do things in a hurry..

Correct Zilzal.Seems to take a while for him to get organised as seen in the Acomb last year when he was slow away and never looked like he was going to get up until the shadow of the post.

It looked a decent pace so it's disappointing that the time was very poor in comparison to other times on the day, despite the RP saying it was a fast time.

RUK said it was a fast time aswell.

I guess they're just comparing it to the Wood Ditton, Sint, which was very slowly run. It doesn't look so good when compared to the other times though.

I'm going out on a limb here to say I dont think SNA will win either the guineas or derby. My thinking for this is come guineas day he is going to have to contend with fast ground for the first time and a strong pace, if you look at both the beresford and rp trophy they were both run at moderate paces on slow ground where he was able to use his turn of foot to best use against horses that are likely to need further in time. Bearing in mind he is also a Montjeu most of his progeny like dig in the ground and perform best with it like that. His action is that of a horse that likes to get his toe into the ground if you notice the lack of his toe pointing down.
Come derby day I just don't see him staying the trip what with his dam and his sisters lack of ability to get 1m 4f. Also there is a strong chance he wont improve as much from 2-3 as other horses again on family history through the dams side.
I could be completely wrong and it wont be the first time but I will be taking him on guineas day and derby day.

re: the slowish time in the Craven - it's hardly surprising, given that they went a crawl for the first 200 yards (more like a hurdle race!)

Zaynar, You make a well-argued case, but to be fair the ground at the Curragh (officially 'good') was riding quite fast - Lady Springbank recorded a very fast time in the Gr.3 fillies race on the same card, as did Lucky General in the Goffs Million Sprint. SNA's winning time in the Beresford Stakes was 2.68s slower than the winning time in the Goffs Million Mile half an hour later, confirming the visual impression that the pacemaker set a sedate pace over the first 5-6 furlongs. The going at Doncaster on 24 October was changed to 'good to soft' after the first race, but they were clearly going through the ground easily. Some people have claimed that SNA's winning time was relatively slow, but a comparison with the winning times of other races on the card suggests this is nonsense:

10f handicap (Div.1): 12.69s per furlong
6f (2YOs): 12.37s per furlong
8f (RPT): 12.45s per furlong
12f handicap: 12.73s per furlong
10f handicap (Div.2): 12.75s per furlong

It's true that there was a bit of cut in the ground at Doncaster, but SNA's previous win on much faster ground at the Curragh proves that he acts on a faster surface. Whether he will prove to be at his very best this season on fast ground remains to be seen, but at least we know that he acts on the surface. It's true that the pace in the Beresford Stakes was pedestrian, but it was a fair pace in the RPT (only fractionally slower overall, furlong for furlong, than the Listed race over 6f).

I also dispute your claim that he was (in effect) flattered by being able to deploy his turn of foot against 'horses that are likely to need further in time'. Elusive Pimpernel, Al Zir and Dancing David are all bred to be milers and are likely to be kept to that sort of trip this year. Elusive Pimpernel may get 10f but is certainly not a Derby horse in the making: as he showed today in the Craven, he has an excellent turn of foot, which was also in evidence both in the Acomb Stakes at York and in the RPT itself behind SNA. (It sometimes looks as though a horse is one-paced when the reality is that it has quickened, but not quite so effectively as the horse that beats it.)

I'd agree that there must be a slight doubt about SNA getting the Derby trip - his dam was bred to be a miler - but he may prove good enough to win the Derby even if he doesn't quite get the trip. In my opinion he will be very hard to beat in the Guineas, even on good to firm ground, provided he is 100% ready. Good luck, though, if you're prepared to oppose him.

jamesp 15 Apr 20:12


re: the slowish time in the Craven - it's hardly surprising, given that they went a crawl for the first 200 yards (more like a hurdle race!)

Each to his opinion of course but it was nowhere near as slow as that and certainly didn't have the make-up of a race leading to a sprint finish and a time that slow

I watched the race live and my immediate impression was that no one wanted to go and make the pace through the first furlong until the rider of Morana took the bull by the horns, but maybe it was just the first half-furlong.

jamesp 15 Apr 21:41


I watched the race live and my immediate impression was that no one wanted to go and make the pace through the first furlong until the rider of Morana took the bull by the horns, but maybe it was just the first half-furlong

Yes it looked to me like that was the case for about half a furlong, for me that wouldn't have much bearing on the final time.

proven on the track . proven on the ground. proven he has trained on.

given fastish ground on guineas day 6/1 e.p. e/w is a gift from the gods.

he should be fav after today imo.

Zaynar I like your post. St Nicholas Abbey ran nicely of softish ground, and his pedigree (sire) is middle distance. His siblings Aristotle and Ballingarry did their best on soft so I think the 2000 Guineas might be to firm and too short for the favourite.

kincsem, SNA has won on good to firm ground in the Beresford Stakes (according to the winning times at the Curragh) and on good to soft ground in the RPT at Doncaster. He showed a very good turn of foot on each occasion. He is therefore versatile with regard to underfoot conditions. The ground is very unlikely to be really firm in the Guineas, as the Clerk of the Course will ensure that watering takes place (if required) to remove any jar from the ground. Although he's by strong stamina influence Montjeu, his dam was bred to be a miler, so on breeding you'd expect him to be best at around 10 furlongs.

Incidentally, Aristotle and Ballingarry are not siblings of SNA, they are siblings of SNA's dam and are therefore 'uncles' of SNA. Both were by Sadler's Wells, a sire renowned for imparting a clear preference for cut in the ground in many of his offspring. Even so, three of Ballingarry's seven best career performances (according to Racing Post Ratings) came on good to firm ground. Their even classier half-brother Starborough (by Soviet Star) was very effective on a fast surface (all his career wins came on good or faster ground). SNA's full sister Cascata (by Montjeu) acts well on a fast surface (though, to be fair, she has never raced on a soft surface) and stays 10f.

In summary, I don't think that either the mile trip or the prospect of fast ground will be a problem for SNA in the Guineas. He was so far superior to Elusive Pimpernel last year that it's hard to see the latter reversing RPT form in the Guineas.

Obviously on the form from last years RPT the Guineas is now a one horse race - if SNA is 4-5 lengths better than Elusive Pimpernel and has no worries about ground or pace, then it's game over.

If only racing and betting was as simple as that ;)

Perhaps the surprsing thing is the price still available on SNA.

SNA was 13/8 in the RPT, but if the same horses had met at Newmarket a month later on good ground he would surely have gone off about 1/2. If he had run in the Craven yesterday and finished 4 lengths in front of Elusive Pimpernel, as the form says he would, what price would he be for the Guineas!!

Yet he is still 5/2 for the 2,000- is that too good to be true???

While thinking about the above post about St Nicholas Abbey it occurred to me (probably incorrectly) that there are some similarities with the situation before last years 1,000 Guineas with Rainbow View.

On 2 y.o form she looked head and shoulders above anything else and she was trading around evens a week before the race and went off 8/11. Yet she was well beaten and although they blamed the ground she was subsequently beaten numerous times at top level - she was good but not the superstar everyone though after her 2 y.o campaign.

Just something to consider ;)

And by the same thought process ,regarding Elusive Pimpernel, there are similarities with Fantatsia last year.

They both finished runner up to the hot winter favourite on their last start at two, and then both won Newmkt Craven meeting trials very impressively.

Fantasia subsequently was very disapointing- could it be the same with EP?

Rainbow View is an interesting case in point. Judging purely by the Racing Post Ratings she achieved, she did not improve from two (best RPR 117) to three (best RPR 116). Her two best performances at three came on yielding ground and she was clearly all at sea on the very firm ground in the 1000 Guineas. If she had encountered yielding ground in the Guineas she may well have won (the winning RPR was 115). In my opinion, SNA does not need to improve from two to three to have a winning chance in the 2000 Guineas.

Just thought I'd let you know that I had a trip to NMKT this week,RPT form shot to bits?I dont think so and after speaking to a few trainers I am very very happy to say that I can't see SNA being beaten,and I am not the only one,head on the block time SNA he will win!It would surprise you just who has that opinion as well!

its a bit unfair when people drag up old threads that show people like kirk in a bad light. I learned, or tried to a while ago, that being too dogmatic can come back and haunt you.
kirk's opinion about the slow coaches beaten by SNA at Donny, looks even more ludicrous now than it did when he argued his opinion before. However I am personally unconvinced entirely by the value of the form of the Craven Stakes.

Yes and the Racing Post used to get trainers opinions as to who would win the Derby, but trainers dont make good tipster ( fact ).

Cryoftruth, I'm glad people are brave enough to put up their thoughts on here, so we can have healthy debate, I respect all on this thread as I know you do, and feel the ensuing debate helps me put my initial thoughts into perspective.
Other contributors crab the RPT form as it was a "slow pace" however as jamesp says above the pace was not particularly slow, I think viewers have been swayed by the commentators comments during the race.On the course I couldn't hear the commentator, and thought the third furlong seemed slow but the rest were about standard, I haven't checked that. I've only been coming to town moor about 25 years, but to me that was the most impressive performance by a two year old on the course, celtic swing included.
I like his dosage profile too and think he's well capable of winning the TRUE triple crown: DP = 3-1-10-4-0 (18) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.17.

How many winners do people find using the dosage index ? The RFU use it alot for the big races, and i am not impressed by the results.

It's not particularly strong in all races, I haven't had a look at the Leger in relation to dosage but will do so and post up here.

Year Horse DP DI CD
1997 Silver Patriarch 38 1.00 0.03
1998 Nedawi 36 1.40 0.36
1999 Mutafaweq 28 1.07 0.14
2000 Millenary 28 1.33 0.32
2001 Millan 38 0.77 - 0.05
2002 Bollin Eric 22 1.00 0.14
2003 Brian Boru 40 1.05 0.18
2004 Rule of Law 28 2.11 0.71
2005 Scorpion 16 1.00 - 0.19
2006 Sixties Icon 22 1.00 - 0.23
2007 Lucarno 34 1.34 0.26
2008 Conduit 22 0.76 - 0.09
Average 1940-2007 35.2 1.09 -0.08

jamesp 16 Apr 06:50
kincsem, SNA has won on good to firm ground in the Beresford Stakes (according to the winning times at the Curragh) and on good to soft ground in the RPT at Doncaster. He showed a very good turn of foot on each occasion. He is therefore versatile with regard to underfoot conditions.

Well the Racing Post says the ground was good for the Beresford so I'm not going to change their assessment.

I was wrong about Aristotle and Ballingarry as sibling of SNA, they are siblings of his dam as you pointed out (I was using my memory, not a good thing). Both were by Sadler's Wells, their pedigrees are similar to SNA.

Ballingarry's big money win, the Canadian International £387k was on yielding. His wins were on Y/Sft; Hvy; GF; Yld; Sft.
Aristotle's best win was probably the Racing Post as a 2-y-o on soft, then disqualified from 1st in France over 10 1/2f heavy, and a 10f win in Singapore over 10f good.

St Nicholas Abbey's Beresford win on good: the time was 12.7 secs a furlong. other times/furlong that day were 11.9s/6f; 12.0/7f; 12.1s/6f; 12.7s/8f (SNA); 12.4s/8f; 12.0s/7f; 13.2s/16f.

Again at Doncaster the time/furlong were: 12.3s/7f; 12.4s/10.5f; 11.9s/5f; 12.4s/6f; 12.5s/8f (SNA); 12.7s/12f; 12.4s/7f; 12.8s/10.3f.

I'm against St Nicholas Abbey for the 2000 Guineas as imo he is more suited to ground with give, and I'm not convinced he has run a fast time. His winning times don't jump out from the other times on both those cards. And Montjeu isn't a sire of milers.

I think he is a middle distance colt suited by give in the ground, who hasn't run a very fast time, and is trying to win over a mile on ground that in an average year will be good or faster.

The times/furlong for 2000 guineas winners from 2000 to 2009 were:
12.2; 12.2; 12.1; 12.2; 12.1; 12.0; 12.1; 11.9; 12.4; 12.0.

Good read Kinscem. TY.

Kincsem

Kincsem, I don't think the Beresford time was brilliant but it wasn't as bad as it might appear, as it was 1 of only 2 races run on the round course that day and times for the Curragh are often misleading anyway because of the constant tinkering with the rails. In my opinion though SNA's time in the RPT was outstanding, leaving him only a few pounds to find to win a typical Guineas. In fact he might not need to improve at all as the opposition is looking a bit thin on the ground, I'm not impressed by the Craven form. Unless SNA has regressed over the winter, which does happen to a lot of good 2yos, he's going to be very difficult to beat.

kinscem ... montjeu isnt a sire of milers .

someone speaks sence at last.

He needs to be a miler in two weeks time for one day, not for the rest of the year.

Let's face it, SNA could have won the RPT if it had been run over 7 furlongs (possibly even 6 furlongs). Most of Montjeu's best offspring (to date) have been middle distance performers, but SNA is out of a dam who was quite speedily bred (by the miler Sure Blade out of the smart 6-8f filly Flamenco Wave) and he has clearly inherited a lot of natural speed from the dam's side of his family. It doesn't make any sense to state dogmatically that Montjeu is a sire of middle distance horses and therefore can never produce a Guineas winner.

kincsem, I don't deny that the going at the Curragh when SNA won the Beresford Stakes was officially 'good', but the winning times suggest that it was riding very much on the fast side (more like 'good to firm'). Lady Springbank won the Gr.3 C.L.Weld Park Stakes in a very fast time of 1m 24.02s (12.00s per furlong), which is much faster than standard time. The Goffs Million Sprint was won in a time of 1m 12.31s (12.05s per furlong). SNA's winning time in the Beresford Stakes was certainly nowhere near as fast as those other two-year-old races, but it's fair to say that he won on quite fast ground that day.

All of Montjeu's best offspring have been middle distance performers. Of his five Derby winners (Motivator, Authorized, Hurricane Run, Frozen Fire, Fame And Glory) not one of them raced over a mile as a three year old.

As for the dam's side, in the words of Tony Morris, "St Nicholas Abbey is out of Leaping Water, an unraced mare by Sure Blade, who earned his reputation as a miler, failed as a sire, and has cut little ice as a broodmare sire. Can we believe that he might have supplied a dash of speed for the Beresford winner to make him perhaps a contender for the Guineas as well as the Derby?

Frankly, it is hard to see Sure Blade being a positive influence for anything, and it will be better for St Nicholas Abbey's prospects of top-level success if he is a pure Montjeu, a faithful scion of the Sadler's Wells tribe."

just because sna has a turn of foot everyone thinks it could be a miler

and might not stay a mile and a half. for me it is nailed on for the

derby and has a decent chance in the guineas if it runs .

but i would much rather be with horses more suited to the guineas trip

like arcano and elusive pimpernel on the probable fast going.

other montjeus with a cracking turn of foot like authorised and

motivator had no problem staying the derby trip.

and i dont think sna will have any problems either.