Horse Antepost
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31 Oct 09
21:42
Joined:
Date Joined:
25 Aug 05
In a homage to AR's mashed work, I am going to put up horses that have been smashed off the bookies boards for no apparent reason other than "only the ring was square", and then proceed to win a 1 horse race.
The idea is that these winners will be lays for their next few starts as they will be rated as if they had won a race with more than 1 horse in it which is not really true (imo).
I have 4 so far
(1) Forgotten Voice, 17 June 09, 4/1 fav, should have been 10/1, beaten next 5 times including unplaced at 1/2 and 2/1.
(2) Aqwaal, 16 May 09, 6/4 fav, should have been 7/2, unplaced next two in higher grade at 6/1 and 10/1, now deceased.
(3) Showcasing, 19 Aug 09, 2/1 fav, should have been 5/1, unplaced next time at 2/1.
(4) Timepiece, 31 Oct 09, 4/1, should have been 8/1.
Layers can safely lay these again and again.
Backers should work on the assumption that the horses in behind these in the above races were not well meant.
The idea is that these winners will be lays for their next few starts as they will be rated as if they had won a race with more than 1 horse in it which is not really true (imo).
I have 4 so far
(1) Forgotten Voice, 17 June 09, 4/1 fav, should have been 10/1, beaten next 5 times including unplaced at 1/2 and 2/1.
(2) Aqwaal, 16 May 09, 6/4 fav, should have been 7/2, unplaced next two in higher grade at 6/1 and 10/1, now deceased.
(3) Showcasing, 19 Aug 09, 2/1 fav, should have been 5/1, unplaced next time at 2/1.
(4) Timepiece, 31 Oct 09, 4/1, should have been 8/1.
Layers can safely lay these again and again.
Backers should work on the assumption that the horses in behind these in the above races were not well meant.
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gl Charlton will be good to see how this experiment progresses imo. What about over the stix ?
Thanks Sint
Nothing over the jumps yet but I'll put up what I sense is not right.
Another one potentially for the list is Malapropism a few days ago. Nothing else backed in a tight race. This 6yo pummeled a bunch of unexposed 3yo from the off, start to finish at 5/2. Should have been 5's in that race. But at this age, he probably won't be fancied again!
Nothing over the jumps yet but I'll put up what I sense is not right.
Another one potentially for the list is Malapropism a few days ago. Nothing else backed in a tight race. This 6yo pummeled a bunch of unexposed 3yo from the off, start to finish at 5/2. Should have been 5's in that race. But at this age, he probably won't be fancied again!
Why don't you like Timepiece Charlton? I'd be careful with her because she's bred to improve next year.
Betting patterns Ben. She raced against no one except the man who cannot afford another mistake. Let's wait and see.
:)
:)
Think Steve Mellish talked the form up quite a lot after the race on RUK but on paper it wasn't a really good race I felt going into it.That said they went well away from 90+ rated horses. I quite liked the second's form, although she's a maiden she's showed a lot of potential when stepped up to a mile and felt she could put up a performance which she did. 75 rated Flip Flop could be the key to this race though, if the handicapper has her right the form could amount to nothing. All about gut instinct though, we probably won't know until next year and I think it's a fair position to take looking a bit deeper into the form.
Ben, it's easy to go away from 90+ horses when they aren't trying...
That is my premise and I'll stick with it util proven wrong.
That is my premise and I'll stick with it util proven wrong.
(5) Dirar
20 lengths out of it and won easy beating the only no hoper in the race, as that was the only other trier. Lane horse looked to get into trouble ( ;) ) so even if he was trying couldn't win. Lay for the next 5 races.
20 lengths out of it and won easy beating the only no hoper in the race, as that was the only other trier. Lane horse looked to get into trouble ( ;) ) so even if he was trying couldn't win. Lay for the next 5 races.
Leahurst
Suffice to say that was a load of sh1t.
Obviously an influnetial owner.
Lay this for it's next 5 runs.
Suffice to say that was a load of sh1t.
Obviously an influnetial owner.
Lay this for it's next 5 runs.
Absolutely and believe me I will make a profit.
:)
:)
That was not a horse race. The 2fav went 19 within a second of the off.
The price is what was wrong. Very powerful indicator of fraudulent activity.
Works both ways, but the police only bother with the drifters.
Is it not possible that it was very well handicapped and simply the best horse in the race?
No that is not possible. 7 of them rated within 3 lbs of each other. Even if it is showing more at home how do they know that others are not also? Well they did know, but not in that way.
We'll see
We'll see
Charlton2005 28 Jan 19:17
No that is not possible. 7 of them rated within 3 lbs of each other. Even if it is showing more at home how do they know that others are not also? Well they did know, but not in that way.
We'll see
You dont honestly believe that do you ?
No that is not possible. 7 of them rated within 3 lbs of each other. Even if it is showing more at home how do they know that others are not also? Well they did know, but not in that way.
We'll see
You dont honestly believe that do you ?
Agreed, 4/1 would have been rightish. 2.32 at the off is indicative of a**
c2 are you suggesting the field allowed the fav to win?
c2, do you know how much these races are worth? NO way they let a horse win. Get a grip ffs.
c2 if in any way i believed that...i would not place a bet again...
but i did notice you flagged this up before the race....why not back it then?
but i did notice you flagged this up before the race....why not back it then?
what does his next run have to do with anything?
Just because you lay a winner doesnt mean the race is fixed.
Just because you lay a winner doesnt mean the race is fixed.
Well I know these go awry more often than not but it is the price b4 the off that counts. If you saw a horse Denman drift from 1/100 to 100/1 in a class 6 fixed weight race would you not think twice about what was going on? This is just the opposite of that. We used to call it a "oner" in South Africa and I saw a few of them.
c2..no probs mate..will be interesting to see.....but if you think on the opening night of their new track...they are all fixing races...i would consider another betting outlet :(
Trev, Didnt the King's horse win the Arab race? The first night, what BETTER night to make things go to plan. Note the first horse on my list here was at RA! Have a look at his record since.
yes, but this isnt a class 6 race, its a valuable handicap in Dubai. They obviously knew he was well handicapped and they had probably trained him to win races at Meydan due to the fact that its worth that much money.
Trev, Didnt the King's horse win the Arab race? The first night, what BETTER night to make things go to plan. Note the first horse on my list here was at RA! Have a look at his record since.
I don't know what planet you're on, but it's not earth. Most of the horses in Arab races are owned by a member of the Dubai Royal family.
I don't know what planet you're on, but it's not earth. Most of the horses in Arab races are owned by a member of the Dubai Royal family.
TD, I don't know all the owners in this race, but I am sure they don't need £40k
fistral beach is a horse that u cud have won a lot laying until last saturday didnt look like winning but got up. has always been fav
c2..but again my point is if you think you have spotted pre race a ****** why not back it ?
Trev, although one doesn't see these obvious inverse ricks very often, I have seen a few go awry and it probably pays to lay them rather than back them in the long run. However, the fact remains that the price was totally wrong and layers can capitalise next time.
by the way C2, you see the first horse in your list Forgotten Voice has since come 4th to RVW at Goodwood and came an unlucky second tonight in the first round of the Maktoum Challenge (a group 3 won by a horse that was second in last years World Cup).
What has half of that got to do with almost alleged race fixing then? That's what you've suggested from how I've interpreted it.
why will layers be able to capatalise next time ? you are compleltely contradicting yourself.
Agreed TD, but you are missing my point. I agree with you that failure next time out (and for the next few times) does not mean a fixed race, but what it does mean is that you can lay a horse at 1/10 to be placed and collect.
TD, backers will look at this well backed win and judge him as if he has had a race. He has not and thus will not perform as expected next time at even shorter odds.
The idea is that these winners will be lays for their next few starts as they will be rated as if they had won a race with more than 1 horse in it which is not really true (imo).
From the top
From the top
Charlton2005 28 Jan 19:31
Trev, although one doesn't see these obvious inverse ricks very often, I have seen a few go awry and it probably pays to lay them rather than back them in the long run. However, the fact remains that the price was totally wrong and layers can capitalise next time.
Awry in the sense your bet lost? Please, explain further. You've suggested some of the other owners don't care about winning, or more accurately don't care about winning £40k. You suggested the favourite was allowed to win. That's some allegation, and no matter what you said at the top of this thread, you need to back up some of your claims. No need to worry on that front because you can't, as you are already discussing next time which proves what again? Oh the horse had a soft win or faced a weak field - that happens every single day in this sport. If it never, every winner would win again- would it not?
Trev, although one doesn't see these obvious inverse ricks very often, I have seen a few go awry and it probably pays to lay them rather than back them in the long run. However, the fact remains that the price was totally wrong and layers can capitalise next time.
Awry in the sense your bet lost? Please, explain further. You've suggested some of the other owners don't care about winning, or more accurately don't care about winning £40k. You suggested the favourite was allowed to win. That's some allegation, and no matter what you said at the top of this thread, you need to back up some of your claims. No need to worry on that front because you can't, as you are already discussing next time which proves what again? Oh the horse had a soft win or faced a weak field - that happens every single day in this sport. If it never, every winner would win again- would it not?
Jose, this thread is simply about making money. If you want to make money, lay Leahurst for it's next 5 starts Win and Place and I assure you, you will do so.
so charlton you will lay him in his next five races 'blind'.
GL with that
GL with that
You might well make some money, but it doesn't mean there was anything wrong with the race from an integrity point of view, and I don't know how you can claim that so adamantly if you can't spot it say a stride after the off before the horse had won.
Oh, and just for those who want to win some money according to your system, how do we lay the place bet in relation to the win lay for the next 5 starts?
I usually lay more place than win but it does depend on the relatives between the two. At 5 and 2 (say) there is no difference given the theoretical relationship of 1/4 odds. At 5 and 1.8 I would rather lay the place for say 75% of capital risked. And vice versa for 5 and 2.2.
Out off all the winners in the first three meetings, Leahurst put up the best time of the lot of them.
I won't be backing today as it's odds on, but good luck if you're laying C2.
I won't be backing today as it's odds on, but good luck if you're laying C2.
Haven't had proper look through race but at first glance evens looks short. Stall 1 today which is a negative if he can't go the early clip because he'll find himself trapped on the rail possibly getting hampered by weakening leaders. With a big weight rise also I couldn't back him at such a short price, good luck C2.
Have you layed C2? Race isn't great after looking at it properly, but still surprised Leahurst isn't in the race after this one. Prime Defender would be my gun to head pick but not backing.
Charlton2005 28 Jan 19:44
Jose, this thread is simply about making money. [b]If you want to make money, lay Leahurst for it's next 5 starts Win and Place and I assure you, you will do so.
Would assume he has layed for a place ben.
Jose, this thread is simply about making money. [b]If you want to make money, lay Leahurst for it's next 5 starts Win and Place and I assure you, you will do so.
Would assume he has layed for a place ben.
Easy, got the dream split, looks very good and could be a useful horse for the whole of the coming season.
Well done with Timepiece btw, although fans will cling on to her for a while yet as perhaps she needed it, at least that makes the price for continued laying, good luck.
Thanks Ben, you too.
I am going to add that Lincoln winner of Murtagh's on here before he runs again.
I am going to add that Lincoln winner of Murtagh's on here before he runs again.
Only just come across this thread - I get where Charlton is coming from and agree with much of his thought process, so will be interesting to see how it pans out.
GL :)
GL :)
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