safina 1000 guineas

Top pedigree.

Entered for the Nell Gywn next week.

Would guess that she is SMS representative in that then. Also must have been put up by a tipstering ine...

Big mover on Betfair or with the bookmakers (or both)? I haven't checked the latest bookmaker odds yet this morning. If it's just on Betfair, it's probably not terribly significant.

Hammered across the board, jamesp

Backed with bookmakers too into 14, 16 and 20 from 33s

Inevitable with her pedigree, connections, debut promise and now Nell Gwyn entry.

Same thing happened with the Cheveley Park owned horses 2 years ago. Remember the Gosden horses that was well backed before the Nell Gwyn, finished 3rd in the Guineas.

Infallible

Infallible, though she finished 4th IIRC. She won the race in which Safina finished 3rd in last October.

If Safina wins the Guineas I will give up betting for good. 16/1 is a ridiculous price. Tabassum is reportedly Stoute's Guineas filly (likely to go straight there). The Nell Gwyn looks a very competitive race this year, with lots of untapped potential. I will be surprised if Safina wins (or even runs in) the Nell Gwyn. It would make more sense for her to run in the 7f fillies maiden next week, leaving either Revered or Muwakaba to run in the Nell Gwyn.

James - for someone who up to now has had a very objective opinion, it is very strange to see you become so dogmatic on the winner of the 1,000 Guineas.
Most of these horses have not been seen for 6+ months in a time when physical development is having a huge impact on the fillies involved. To say this and that cant when when you have no idea of their recent ability is very very naive and as I say out of sync with your previous postings..

Thea...

But jamesp KNOWS....that Special Duty has done well physically (despite not being at MLaffite yesterday), and that she has been working over a mile all spring.

^

But what does he know about the development of safina?

Duck all no doubt

to say a horse is well bred which is entered for the Guineas is rubbish, every horse entered is well bred, going by form i make Safina a million. cheers.

Well in your case every "form" horse then every fav wins...which from what I believe is not the case...look at previous winners of 1 & 2K Guineas..

i take your point theo, but there are horses equally as well bred as Safina who have shown form and not just potential. cheers.

Agreed 100% but saying that Safina is a million to one chance is plain daft

well i want to back it and i dont even 100 so can you lay it please if you think it has no chance

notenough, I have responded on the Special Duty thread about that filly's recent work-outs (she worked over about a mile on the Polytrack and then had one serious gallop on the turf before the Imprudence). As far as her physical progress is concerned, I was simply quoting the trainer, who reported that the filly had strengthened up and filled out during the winter but that there was further progress to come.

CFT, I don't think I've said anywhere that Safina definitely won't win the Guineas, but I will certainly give up ante-post betting if she does manage to pull off one of the biggest shocks in the history of the race, as it would leave me with no clear trends to work with for the future. Safina is terrible terrible value for the Guineas, based on what we have seen of her in public. I dare say she has done well over the winter and may (for all I know) be slaughtering Tabassum on the gallops, but the long-term trends for the race suggest that she has very little chance of actually winning the Guineas. By the way, Safina is also entered for the 7f maiden next Thursday and I expect she'll run in that rather than the Nell Gwyn. Scorn, who finished in front of Safina in that back-end maiden, is also entered for the race on Thursday.

but i thought you ve bet safina @ 40s?

James a) see Ghaanati, Kings Best, Lahan and another hundred unexposed Guineas winners
b) why have you backed her?

PS Re Criquette Head's comments on SD - have you ever heard a trainer say about his/her 1k/2k favourite "the filly has not grown an inch over the winter, she has gone backwards and hasnt got a chance..."

Trust what you see not what you hear..

Always did look a very open Guineas if you took out Special Duty.

corbiewood, I placed an insurance bet on her because there was already a mini-gamble developing in early October last year and I didn't want to be left with a big gap in my portfolio if the filly had gone and won her maiden impressively (she's clearly highly regarded and therefore would have plummeted in price if she had won her maiden). Her Guineas odds are now what you'd expect if she had already won next Thursday's fillies' maiden at Newmarket.

CFT, the only genuinely unexposed filly to have won the 1000 Guineas in modern times was Ghanaati last year. All the others, without exception, had contested Group races as two-year-olds. The differrence between Ghanaati and Safina is that the former won her maiden as a juvenile very easily by six lengths, whereas Safina finished third in what was probably a very good maiden, but the form appears to be a long way below what Ghanaati achieved at two.

Just checked the other thread. OK, I did say I thought that Safina couldn't possibly win the Guineas. I must have been feeling dogmatic at the time I wrote that. Clearly it's possible that the filly could win the Guineas, but let's just say I'd be very surprised (to put it mildly)!

Perhaps the Trend for 1000Guineas winners is changing, before 1994 all 2000G winners had a prep run now they tend to go straight there.

Cheers For Thea 09 Apr 15:50


James a) see Ghaanati, Kings Best, Lahan and another hundred unexposed Guineas winners



Kings Best had won the Acomb at York and was a 5/2 shot in the Dewhurst and Lahan had won the Rockfel - hardly unexposed Guineas winners ?

james, thanks for the reply.

When was the last maiden at the stat of their 3yo career to have won a guineas ?

Safina would have to seriously break the trends.

shevvy, since 1980 no filly has won the 1000 Guineas without having won at least one race as a two-year-old. Does anyone have access to Guineas stats before 1980?

The only one that May not have(and this is guesswork) is the Easterby one who won the Free Handicap but i honestly cant remember if this was the case or not

Same stable would have done this with Dabaaweya had she not 'run into one' in the shape of Ravinella in her year.....

Dabaweyaa's sole juvenile performance (second in the Blue Seal Stakes at Ascot, well clear of the third) was quite smart form in its own right. The Blue Seal was a valuable conditions race - in some years it was officially Listed status - and produced a number of very smart fillies over the years, including Sun Princess, Sonic Lady, Unite and Ensconse. The filly that beat Dabaweyaa at Ascot, New Trends, was a smart filly who went on to finish second in the Radley Stakes next time (behind an unbeaten filly of Barry Hills called Sparrow's Air, the pair three lengths clear of the remainder). Basically, the point I'm making is that Dabaweyaa's two-year-old form was some way in advance of what Safina achieved behind Field Day last autumn. Dabaweyaa won the 7f fillies maiden at the Craven meeting comfortably by 2½ lengths. It will be interesting to see whether Safina can emulate that performance. She will need to reverse maiden form with Scorn, who finished one place ahead of her last October.

Run into one, lol that was putting it mildly, wasnt she around 7/2 -3/1 straight after the Cheveley Park win

Personally if the was going to be a 1000 candidate from left field I prefer others to Safina.
However her only run was very promising and Sir Michael is able to produce one now and then. She got a rating of 74P for her only racecourse effort so far and could improve by 3 stones on that effort and still not make the frame at HQ. The price (16/1) is not very good is it? Now she has been backed and clearly improved a good deal, I wish I was on at 50/1.
My own "promising filly" for the Guineas also appears this week at HQ, and she has much better and also winning form - Principal Role. she is till avaliable at the sorts of odds that Safina should be, or was until the gamble on her started.
Its stupid, but in the Nel Gwyn I expect Principal Role to be very close to Safina in the betting, and maybe to beat her in the trial. The comparative odds of 16/1 and 50/1 are put in a bit more perspective by this I would say.
jamesp - don't give up if Safina wins. i remember a mate saying many years ago when an old handicapper called Buzzards Bay led after a furlong of the QE2 Stakes "I'll eat the hoover of this wins". Sometimes the unlikely happens!

Principal Role is certainly an interesting contender, but there are plenty of unknown quantities among the Nell Gwyn entries at this stage. We'll have a better idea after the final decs tomorrow. Interestingly (and against my expectations) Stoute has announced that Safina will run in the Nell Gwyn rather than the 7f fillies maiden on Thursday. This can only mean that Safina is more forward than either Revered or Muwakaba (his other Nell Gwyn entries) and has presumably been working nicely. If Bolger's horses were in better form, I'd fancy Atasari to win the Nell Gwyn. Atasari has already won over a mile and there's very little to choose between her, Music Show and Tabassum on form. With Music Show as short as 10/1-14/1 for the Guineas, and Tabassum around 16/1, I can't understand why Atasari is 40/1.

Fair play re the Guineas trends. I stand corrected.
I just think it is best to try and not be too dogmatic when using trends as the only tool to find the winner.
Anyways a cracking week of racing to look forward to. The 1st maiden at Newmarket on Wednesday typifies that!