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harchibald
06 Mar 10 06:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 30 Sep 01
| Topic/replies: 592 | Blogger: harchibald's blog
I Don't get it

Was on at Cheltenham. He is too short today but the 18 odd times chamption legend has just sat there and told us all that the National is THE plan, he has a turn of foot but the plan is the national. AP will almost certainly ride him so get on at 40/1 because if he places or wins he ain't gonna be 40/1 after that.

Personally I actually think he's got a great chance in the National and a decent weight.
Pause Switch to Standard View CAN'T BUY TIME 40/1
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Report Sir Epicure Mammon March 6, 2010 7:42 AM GMT
Didn't stay 4 miles at Cheltenham last year did it ?
Do you reckon it'll manage 4 and a half at Aintree ?
Report harchibald March 6, 2010 7:46 AM GMT
Yes I do
Report Sir Epicure Mammon March 6, 2010 9:06 AM GMT
Good luck with that project.
Report harchibald March 6, 2010 3:43 PM GMT
Er, weren't that bad today ....
Report flyingbolt March 6, 2010 4:30 PM GMT
No chance of staying the trip in the National. AP has at least 2 far better potential mounts.
Report Masterminded March 6, 2010 6:24 PM GMT
who would they be iyo?
Report platinni March 6, 2010 6:31 PM GMT
as

dpi
Report Panto Prince March 6, 2010 6:49 PM GMT
What do you fancy Flyingbolt?
Report harchibald March 22, 2010 6:10 PM GMT
**************** OK LADS GIVEN THE 'NEWS' WHO IS ON ??? *********************

Stand out bet for me now let's hope this is value you can eat yes ?
Report rhinestone March 22, 2010 6:12 PM GMT
'NEWS'?
Report harchibald March 22, 2010 6:31 PM GMT
yes that's why I put it in quote marks but apparently ....

AP confirmed for the ride

I haven't been able to find any story anywhere but market move significant imo ... someone else on here said they had seen story somwhere
Report El Apache March 22, 2010 6:34 PM GMT
O`Neill is looking at John Hughes race for Cant Buy Time , which will leave McCoy to ride Dont Push It who has more stamina.
Report ak1979 March 22, 2010 7:20 PM GMT
Where is this quote saying that McCoy will ride CBT? I would be surprised if he has commited to him this early with provenn stayers like Arbor Supreme likely to be available to him.
Report harchibald March 22, 2010 8:16 PM GMT
How do we know the John Hughes race ?

why the market move then ?
Report BornToWin March 22, 2010 10:33 PM GMT
Will not stay. (nap) I was on when the tank emptied instantly at Chelters, an extra half mile not the answer.
Report harchibald March 23, 2010 10:38 AM GMT
AP and Jonjo seem to think differently ?
Report Roger The Butler March 23, 2010 11:36 AM GMT
Wait and see if McCoy is riding it in the National.

If he is then don't back it.
Report BornToWin March 23, 2010 8:51 PM GMT
Watch his race at Chelters if you can harchi, went from cruising to empty pretty much within a few strides. I personally can't get over that sight, hope I am wrong AP deserves a National.
Report harchibald March 29, 2010 2:42 PM BST
LOOKS LIKE IT'S AP on CBT guys ...

McCOY POISED TO BUY TIME IN NATIONAL BID

By Ashley Iveson, Press Association Sport

Winning Jockey Grand National Special: A P McCoy to ride the winner 14/1
Can't Buy Time (IRE) Profile
Arbor Supreme (IRE) Profile
A P McCoy Profile
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Champion jockey Tony McCoy looks set to partner Jonjo O'Neill's Can't Buy Time as he chases an elusive first success in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree.

McCoy's boss, leading owner JP McManus, has four entries for the world's most famous race in King Johns Castle, Don't Push It, Arbor Supreme and Can't Buy Time.

The Willie Mullins-trained Arbor Supreme is the shortest of the quartet in the betting but at this stage, he is set to be ridden by Paul Townend.

McManus' racing manager Frank Berry said: "Paul Townend is probably going to ride Arbor Supreme and we're not certain yet whether AP will ride Don't Push It or Can't Buy Time.

"Nothing is written in stone yet, but I think Tony will ride one of Jonjo's (O'Neill) horses.

"It is a while away yet so nothing is certain but at this stage, it's more than likely Tony will ride Can't Buy Time."

Speaking on his Facebook page, Mullins said: "Paul Townend is going to ride Arbor Supreme in the Grand National."
Report Scampydog March 29, 2010 2:46 PM BST
That notwithstanding I'll be surprised if AP rides CBT.

Doubtful stayer, fell last year having shown nothing, may well be best on good ground? And Jonjo's comments when the weights were announced? "Can't Buy Time is a nice horse, he might go for the Topham instead."

Why on earth would AP want to be on this one...?
Report lordnoise March 29, 2010 2:49 PM BST
KJC ?
Report flyingbolt March 29, 2010 2:52 PM BST
Well anticipated, Harchibald. I think AP has messed up here. Arbor Supreme looks to have a great chance and I'd much prefer Dont Push It to Can't Buy Time.
Report dananders March 29, 2010 2:56 PM BST
wouldnt win with him oin board none of them
Report flyingbolt March 29, 2010 2:58 PM BST
wtf would you know ? Clueless clown.
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:18 PM BST
his record in the race isnt terrific and he isnt great at presenting a horse at a fance recipe 4 disaster
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:18 PM BST
his record in the race isnt terrific and he isnt great at presenting a horse at a fance recipe 4 disaster
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:18 PM BST
his record in the race isnt terrific and he isnt great at presenting a horse at a fance recipe 4 disaster
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:18 PM BST
his record in the race isnt terrific and he isnt great at presenting a horse at a fance recipe 4 disaster
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:18 PM BST
his record in the race isnt terrific and he isnt great at presenting a horse at a fance recipe 4 disaster
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:19 PM BST
dunno y its put that several times
Report flyingbolt March 29, 2010 3:22 PM BST
and your knowledge of "presenting a horse at a fence" is what ?
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:24 PM BST
i watch ruby walsh go over a fence and then i compare mccoy at his obstacles . thats my knowledge. mccoy has never won the national and i dont think he ever will just my opinion . dont start having a go at me 4 having an opinion. the world would be a boring place if evry 1 agreed
Report flyingbolt March 29, 2010 3:30 PM BST
If you are entitled to an opinion I am entitled to disagree with it particularly as it seems you don't even know what presenting a horse at a fence means.
Report MC560 dn March 29, 2010 3:30 PM BST
dananders 29 Mar 15:24


i watch ruby walsh go over a fence and then i compare mccoy at his obstacles . thats my knowledge. mccoy has never won the national and i dont think he ever will just my opinion . dont start having a go at me 4 having an opinion. the world would be a boring place if evry 1 agreed


Too right. I agree.
Report dananders March 29, 2010 3:33 PM BST
flying bolt you are a clear wind up merchant . i just dont think he can get a horse jumping regular enough 4 my liking anyway . im a ruby man simple as that
Report lordnoise March 29, 2010 3:39 PM BST
McCoys had terrible luck in the GN and its obviously the one he wants really very badly. In those circumstances you do wonder if the frustration might make him do things differently and less naturally in the race.
Report harchibald March 29, 2010 5:02 PM BST
guys, AP MCCOY wasn't too bad in the Midlands National on a horse that isn't a naturally bred jumper (he was bred to win the derby) was he now ?

I just think he's been unlucky. Nothing wrong with AP at a fence and I'll be over the moon to have him on side at 40/1
Report GI MAC March 29, 2010 6:26 PM BST
McCoy has been placed three times in the Grand National, and been rather unlucky on a few occasions when travelling well, he's won an Irish National, a Midlands National. He's won a Gold Cup a King George .... I could go on.

Anyone who says he can't present a horse at a fence is talking nonsense imo. This is just a trendy viewpoint that gets banded about every so often, by pundits that have never sat on a horse in their life, just to get a little publicity.
Report Scampydog March 29, 2010 6:54 PM BST
Not to mention stuff like winning over the national fences & the fact that he is in fact the second-winningmost jockey (19 wins versus Ruby on 21) in the last 5 years at Aintree.
Report harchibald March 30, 2010 7:25 PM BST
GI Scampi FlyingBolt - good to see some talk sense here, come on guys AP is the best you're ever likely to see just admit it
Report Steeplechasing March 30, 2010 7:34 PM BST
From some recent research, I seem to remember that AP's mounts fall much less frequently than other jocks - close to half the falls Ruby has.
Report Steeplechasing March 30, 2010 7:36 PM BST
Eric's Charm carried 11.10 last time to win a veterans' race at Newbury, beating horses like Knowhere, Gone to Lunch, Trabolgan and Ellerslie George to whom he gave 6lbs and a 53L beating - in the National he gets 1lb from Ellerslie George.

He is a stone well in off his current mark, in the best form of his life, is highly experienced, is a generally reliable jumper, has won over 30f in soft ground at Sandown (prior to Newbury win) by 19 lengths - form comment "Alternated lead throughout, definite advantage by-passing 3 out, drew clear before last, romped home"

Carrying 11.1 that day he beat Irish Raptor almost 30L. Irish Raptor will face him on only 5lbs better terms yet is 25 points shorter in the betting.

He is 21lbs better off with Can't Buy Time for a 6L beating last season; CBT is more than 50 points shorter in the betting.

Trends I can take or leave - some are more relevant than others - but whatever the trends say, how can Eric's Charm not be value at 75?

Sherwood was quoted the other day as saying it was his primary target and that the projected Whitbread (as was) will only come into the reckoning if the Sandown ground is soft. Assuming he goes to post at Aintree, I can see him being 25s or shorter. If you're not confident enough to fill yer boots at 75, at least fill one of them!
Report harchibald March 30, 2010 9:54 PM BST
Steeple -

I was on at Sandown at 12's, i was there, a VERY impressive performance led from start to finish

I was on at Newburs. Great ride by AP. Again underrated in the betting.

I am now going to take a 1pt win on him as well in the GN.

Good reasoning, nice write up. Thanks.
Report ninetieth minute March 30, 2010 10:08 PM BST
Re: Eric's Charm, Steeplechasing

"He is a stone well in off his current mark"

Not sure I agree with that - how does that work?

Is he really a 157 horse?
Report Steeplechasing March 30, 2010 10:16 PM BST
NM - Apologies, you are correct. I looked at his mark of 135 for the Sandown victory rather than the 143 for Newbury - he is only 6lbs well in on 149.
Report ninetieth minute March 30, 2010 10:25 PM BST
Just getting worried there for a minute

Part of me thinks that EC is a Class 2 12 yo with little to no chance but again then if it's soft he's one of the few older horses 11'0 who'll love the ground, is in form and stays - older horses usually tend to do better in soft ground in GN from what I can gather
Report ninetieth minute March 30, 2010 10:26 PM BST
under 11'0
Report Steeplechasing March 30, 2010 10:31 PM BST
NM - I'm not saying he'll win, by any means, but he looks way over-priced.
Report ninetieth minute March 30, 2010 10:41 PM BST
Steeple - no, appreciate the angle (also the Albertas Run post from last year)

Just one of those ones that's bothering me that's all - can't rule him in, can't rule him out
Report El Apache April 1, 2010 11:17 PM BST
Dont Push It

Why on earth would McCoy pick Can`T Buy Time.

Dont Push It - in the last 2 years has serious form with Big Bucks , won at Aintree , decent runs behind Monets Garden at Aintree, Galant Nuit at Chelt and Our Vic at Warwick.

No explanation for poor run at the Festival, perhaps this horse runs well for McCoy.

Be amazed if McCoy chooses CBT.
Report casemoney April 2, 2010 12:02 AM BST
dont push it not greatest of jumpers I.M.O
Report The Holy Roman Emperor April 2, 2010 6:29 AM BST
I really like Don't Push It but wouldn't he too high in the weights particularly if it turns soft?
Report El Apache April 3, 2010 9:02 AM BST
Looks like McCoy has seen sense.
Report mamut April 3, 2010 12:37 PM BST
from the racing post website:
TONY McCOY has revealed that due to the soft conditions that are expected at Aintree, he is leaning towards partnering Don't Push It in the John Smith's Grand National next Saturday.

The going on the Grand National course was described as soft, heavy in places on the Canal Turn and Valentines on Saturday, and McCoy, who was widely expected to ride Can't Buy Time, has had a rethink due to the recent weather.

Writing in his column for the Daily Telegraph, he said: "There's no pressure to make a final decision until nearer the time, but having originally been pencilled in for Can't Buy Time I now find myself leaning towards Don't Push It.

"You can forgive Can't Buy Time his run in the race last year - he eventually fell at the 18th - because he went there on the back of a hard race in the four-mile chase at Cheltenham, but there is a slight question mark about his stamina and he definitely wouldn't want the ground too soft.

"To my mind, Don't Push It has a bit of class and ability and he'd be fine on that ground. That is my thinking at the moment and I reserve the right to change my mind several more times!"

Can't Buy Time is a general 20-1 shot for the race, while Don't Push It can is as big as 40-1.

The ten-year-old was pulled up on his last start in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, but he does have form at Aintree, winning the John Smith's Handicap Chase on Grand National day last year.
Report ak1979 April 3, 2010 12:59 PM BST
DPI is the sensible choice of the 2 i reckon.
Report IrisDeBalme April 4, 2010 1:42 PM BST
The way McCoy is going its clear he does not have a idea.... but amazing that the 40s has gone ... now 25s ...only based on his comments?

If he decides to go for Cant Buy Time... does that mean bookies will push out Dont Push it ...back out to 40s? doubt it... bookies just not taking any risk...

Wish McCoy just keep his mouth shut...and just pick the horse so bookies wont take knee jerk reactions.
Report IrisDeBalme April 10, 2010 6:31 PM BST
Bookies didnt take no risk did they... 25s into 10s... I wonder how much of that was office money... or bookies reducing their liabilities... with Ruby out... the only household name left in the race...
Report wallis April 10, 2010 10:11 PM BST
Some real embarrasments on this thread.
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