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GI Scampi FlyingBolt - good to see some talk sense here, come on guys AP is the best you're ever likely to see just admit it
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From some recent research, I seem to remember that AP's mounts fall much less frequently than other jocks - close to half the falls Ruby has.
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Eric's Charm carried 11.10 last time to win a veterans' race at Newbury, beating horses like Knowhere, Gone to Lunch, Trabolgan and Ellerslie George to whom he gave 6lbs and a 53L beating - in the National he gets 1lb from Ellerslie George.
He is a stone well in off his current mark, in the best form of his life, is highly experienced, is a generally reliable jumper, has won over 30f in soft ground at Sandown (prior to Newbury win) by 19 lengths - form comment "Alternated lead throughout, definite advantage by-passing 3 out, drew clear before last, romped home" Carrying 11.1 that day he beat Irish Raptor almost 30L. Irish Raptor will face him on only 5lbs better terms yet is 25 points shorter in the betting. He is 21lbs better off with Can't Buy Time for a 6L beating last season; CBT is more than 50 points shorter in the betting. Trends I can take or leave - some are more relevant than others - but whatever the trends say, how can Eric's Charm not be value at 75? Sherwood was quoted the other day as saying it was his primary target and that the projected Whitbread (as was) will only come into the reckoning if the Sandown ground is soft. Assuming he goes to post at Aintree, I can see him being 25s or shorter. If you're not confident enough to fill yer boots at 75, at least fill one of them! |
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Steeple -
I was on at Sandown at 12's, i was there, a VERY impressive performance led from start to finish I was on at Newburs. Great ride by AP. Again underrated in the betting. I am now going to take a 1pt win on him as well in the GN. Good reasoning, nice write up. Thanks. |
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Re: Eric's Charm, Steeplechasing
"He is a stone well in off his current mark" Not sure I agree with that - how does that work? Is he really a 157 horse? |
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NM - Apologies, you are correct. I looked at his mark of 135 for the Sandown victory rather than the 143 for Newbury - he is only 6lbs well in on 149.
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Just getting worried there for a minute
Part of me thinks that EC is a Class 2 12 yo with little to no chance but again then if it's soft he's one of the few older horses 11'0 who'll love the ground, is in form and stays - older horses usually tend to do better in soft ground in GN from what I can gather |
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under 11'0
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NM - I'm not saying he'll win, by any means, but he looks way over-priced.
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Steeple - no, appreciate the angle (also the Albertas Run post from last year)
Just one of those ones that's bothering me that's all - can't rule him in, can't rule him out |
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Dont Push It
Why on earth would McCoy pick Can`T Buy Time. Dont Push It - in the last 2 years has serious form with Big Bucks , won at Aintree , decent runs behind Monets Garden at Aintree, Galant Nuit at Chelt and Our Vic at Warwick. No explanation for poor run at the Festival, perhaps this horse runs well for McCoy. Be amazed if McCoy chooses CBT. |
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dont push it not greatest of jumpers I.M.O
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I really like Don't Push It but wouldn't he too high in the weights particularly if it turns soft?
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Looks like McCoy has seen sense.
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from the racing post website:
TONY McCOY has revealed that due to the soft conditions that are expected at Aintree, he is leaning towards partnering Don't Push It in the John Smith's Grand National next Saturday. The going on the Grand National course was described as soft, heavy in places on the Canal Turn and Valentines on Saturday, and McCoy, who was widely expected to ride Can't Buy Time, has had a rethink due to the recent weather. Writing in his column for the Daily Telegraph, he said: "There's no pressure to make a final decision until nearer the time, but having originally been pencilled in for Can't Buy Time I now find myself leaning towards Don't Push It. "You can forgive Can't Buy Time his run in the race last year - he eventually fell at the 18th - because he went there on the back of a hard race in the four-mile chase at Cheltenham, but there is a slight question mark about his stamina and he definitely wouldn't want the ground too soft. "To my mind, Don't Push It has a bit of class and ability and he'd be fine on that ground. That is my thinking at the moment and I reserve the right to change my mind several more times!" Can't Buy Time is a general 20-1 shot for the race, while Don't Push It can is as big as 40-1. The ten-year-old was pulled up on his last start in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, but he does have form at Aintree, winning the John Smith's Handicap Chase on Grand National day last year. |
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DPI is the sensible choice of the 2 i reckon.
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The way McCoy is going its clear he does not have a idea.... but amazing that the 40s has gone ... now 25s ...only based on his comments?
If he decides to go for Cant Buy Time... does that mean bookies will push out Dont Push it ...back out to 40s? doubt it... bookies just not taking any risk... Wish McCoy just keep his mouth shut...and just pick the horse so bookies wont take knee jerk reactions. |
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Bookies didnt take no risk did they... 25s into 10s... I wonder how much of that was office money... or bookies reducing their liabilities... with Ruby out... the only household name left in the race...
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Some real embarrasments on this thread.
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