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Value King
05 Apr 10 20:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 May 08
| Topic/replies: 279 | Blogger: Value King's blog
Here are the trends I posted on here last year after the 2009 running...

1. Age 8 to 12
2. Won 1+ Chases over 3m+
3. Run in 10+ Chases
4. Won a Class 2+ Chase
5. Won a Chase worth £17,000+
6. Weight no greater than 12lbs above bottom weight
7. Top 3 finish in a Class 1 Chase over 3m+
8. Top 3 finish in any of previous 3 runs
9. Topspeed of 128+
10. Racing Post Rating of 144+
11. Last run no greater than 50 days
12. Top 5 finish in Hennessy
OR Top 3 in Irish, Scots or Welsh National
OR Top 2 in a race over Aintree National fences
OR 3+ Chase wins at 3m+ (one being at 3m 4f+)


As a matter of interest over the last few hours I have gone through the field as it stands now, down to those horses carrying 10st 4lbs (Number 46), to see how many of the above trends the runners meet. Here are my findings...

Meet 12 Trends

Dream Alliance
Character Building
Knowhere

Meet 11 Trends

Fail on Weight
Madison Du Berlais (+7lbs)
Mon Mome (+4lbs)
Black Apalachi (+3lbs)
Vic Venturi (+3lbs)
Comply Or Die (+2lbs)
Niche Market (+1lbs)

Fail on Trend Twelve
Beat The Boys (3m2f wins x 3)
Snowy Morning (Top 3 National Fences)
Big Fella Thanks (Top 6 National Fences)
Erics Charm (3m6f, 3m3f, 3m1f wins)
Arbor Supreme (3m6f, 3m5f, 2m 4f wins)

Fail on Form
My Will (757 last three runs)
State Of Play (44P)
Ollie Magern (467)
Hello Bud (U87)

Fail on Topspeed
Mr Pointment (TS 124)

Fail on Age
Silver Birch (Age 13)


The above are based on the bottom weight being 10st 5lbs, as it is now. If the bottom weight ended up as 10st 4lbs then Dream Alliance would fall into the "Meet 11 Trends" category.

I have no idea if any of this will come to fruition, but it makes for interesting reading (I hope!).
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Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:11 PM BST
Just realised that Eric's Charm should be in the "Meet 12 Trends" category!!

Sorry about that, I've been doing this for two and half hours now and it's taken it's toll :^0
Report sepp blatter April 5, 2010 9:12 PM BST
is there 12 trends in your list or 15 as the last 3 arent numbered
Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:15 PM BST
There are 12 Sepp.

The last one states... (Top 5 Hennessy) OR (Top 3 Irish, Scots, Welsh National) OR (Top 2 in race over National fences) OR (3 wins at 3m+ with one being at 3m4f+)

They need to do any of those to meet the trend.
Report sepp blatter April 5, 2010 9:17 PM BST
sorry - get it now,

give 5 pts to each trend,dismiss all with 60 pts(too obvious),look at 55 and 50 pts.
Report apieceofcake April 5, 2010 9:17 PM BST
Tbh the weight trend is one I am least bothered about.
It looks sure to be busted sometime soon imh

Nice write up as per usual VK
Report apieceofcake April 5, 2010 9:19 PM BST
Meet 11 Trends

Fail on Weight
Madison Du Berlais (+7lbs)
Mon Mome (+4lbs)
Black Apalachi (+3lbs)
Vic Venturi (+3lbs)
Comply Or Die (+2lbs)
Niche Market (+1lbs)


I actually think the winner will come from this group
Report sepp blatter April 5, 2010 9:23 PM BST
which ones meet 10 trends
Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:23 PM BST
Could well do APOC.

But I wouldn't expect the weight to be too high. I could see a horse winning off maybe one or two pounds higher than the previous heaviest in recent times. But it'd be tough for those on 11st 6lbs and above. There always seems to be something that swoops past them at the end.
Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:25 PM BST
Sepp :^0

Joe Lively
Don't Push It
Cloudy Lane
Ballyholland
Can't Buy Time
Ellerslie George
Palypso De Creek
Flintoff
Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:41 PM BST
Just realised I've ballsed it up again!!

State Of Play only meets 10 and not 11 as he hasn't had a run within the last 50 days.

Sorry again :D
Report sepp blatter April 5, 2010 9:43 PM BST
my mate dissmissed a horse at chelt as it had not run in last 52 days(it actual had run 55 days before)- it won ,trends are a guide
Report apieceofcake April 5, 2010 9:48 PM BST
I just backed SOP because of your trends VK

If you want to reemburse me my details are below:

Mr Richard Head

1345 2456 9716 2009

00934561
Ty :D
Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:51 PM BST
Correct Sepp, they are a guide.

I just thought I'd post this thread to add to the ongoing debate until Saturday is over :)
Report Value King April 5, 2010 9:52 PM BST
LOL APOC - don't be cheeky ;)
Report sepp blatter April 5, 2010 9:53 PM BST
the winner will miss 1 0r 2 key trends but hit most of the others.
Report apieceofcake April 5, 2010 9:53 PM BST
;)
Report Value King April 10, 2010 6:49 PM BST
McCoy and Don't Push It blow the stats out of the water!!

Dart job next year :^0

Happiest men tonight, Phil Smith and the Aintree officials. The compression of the handicap and the modification of the course has turned this race into a real lottery now compared to the last decade or so.

Sprints all the way :D
Report Value King April 10, 2010 6:49 PM BST
McCoy and Don't Push It blow the stats out of the water!!

Dart job next year :^0

Happiest men tonight, Phil Smith and the Aintree officials. The compression of the handicap and the modification of the course has turned this race into a real lottery now compared to the last decade or so.

Sprints all the way :D
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