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dug
09 Apr 10 15:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 336 | Blogger: dug's blog
These are the stats for the past 10 years.

10 out of 10 were aged between 8 and 12

10 out of 10 were rated from 136 to 148

10 out of 10 had won over at least 3 miles

10 out of 10 had either won a Listed or Class 1 or A race

10 out of 10 had run within the previous 2 months

After applying the above stats we are left with the following 7 qualifiers and their current prices :-

BEAT THE BOYS -------150/1
SNOWY MORNING --- 16/1
CAN'T BUY TIME ------ 33/1
BIG FELLAH THANKS --8/1
ELLERSLIE GEORGE --100/1
BALLY FITZ ------------66/1
OLLIE MAGERN -------200/1

Only last years winner had a bigger SP than 33/1.At this stage if we further eliminate those at a bigger price than 33/1 we are left with the following :-

BIG FELLAH THANKS --8/1
SNOWY MORNING --- 16/1
CAN'T BUY TIME ------ 33/1

Perhaps BALLY FITZ can be added to those qualifiers as is SP could possibly tumble to 33/1.
Pause Switch to Standard View GRAND NATIONAL - 10 Year Trends
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Report push April 9, 2010 5:49 PM BST
What is the average / price range of the winners ?
Report push April 9, 2010 5:51 PM BST
dug, using the above method , you could be the new Value Scope.
Report dug April 9, 2010 7:15 PM BST
push
What is the average / price range of the winners ?

The average SP in the last 10 years is a fraction over 25/1
Report dug April 9, 2010 7:20 PM BST
push

SP's of the last 10 winners is as follows:-

100/1
7/1 Fav
33/1
11/1
7/1 Jt Fav
16/1
16/1
20/1
33/1
10/1
Report push April 9, 2010 7:20 PM BST
Thanks dug, that is a higher price than i was expecting.
Report dug April 9, 2010 7:56 PM BST
push
Thanks dug, that is a higher price than i was expecting.

If you take out last years shock 100/1 SP and substitute the 10 winners before that,then the average SP of the winner is a shade over 16/1.
Report Derbyshire Racing April 9, 2010 8:21 PM BST
Forget the stats over 10 years - the race is a different animal now with the handicapping system for the race as it is - go for a typical Grand National type instead i.e The Package. IMO anyway. Only 7 but how many have run in the race over the years - not many hence bad stats
Report angel April 9, 2010 8:28 PM BST
27 have run in the last 10 years (7yos) and 22 fell. Only one ran well - Big Fella Thanks. NONE PLACED.
Report Derbyshire Racing April 9, 2010 8:34 PM BST
More than I thought - a poor record but it doesnt put me off The Package
Report dug April 9, 2010 8:34 PM BST
Derbyshire Racing

I think the reason not many 7 year olds have won this race is because of lack of experience over fences.

The last time a 7 year old won was 70 years ago,though you could argue that they are well overdue a win.
Report Horsesforcourses April 9, 2010 8:35 PM BST
10 out of 10 had either won a Listed or Class 1 or A race

So how does that work? It's not listed or better but must specifically be a class 1 or A race if not listed??

So Hello Bud who meets all the other trends but won a Grade C race is excluded despite it being better than llisted? Confused...
Report dug April 9, 2010 8:39 PM BST
Horsesforcourses

Because Hello Bud does not meet the full criteria of the 10 year stats does not mean that he can't win the race.
Report Horsesforcourses April 9, 2010 8:48 PM BST
But has my interpretation of your 'stat' been correct?

If so it's clearly too specific as there's no logic in ruling out a grade C winner in favour of a listed winner, when grade A winners qualify.
Report dug April 9, 2010 8:59 PM BST
Horsesforcourses
[i]But has my interpretation of your 'stat' been correct?
[/i]
You are of course correct,but i was only taking into account the stats of the past 10 winners.

Trends are a help in pinpointing the possible winner but it is not an exact science,i am merely pointing out the trends over the last 10 years.
Report Horsesforcourses April 9, 2010 9:09 PM BST
The 'trend' therefore is listed class or better.

You've not intepreted the data and evidenced a trend - you've just taken the data at face value which is silly at best.

That use of the data is precisely why some people on here mock the application of trends - you need to use some logic as well.
Report dug April 9, 2010 9:32 PM BST
Horsesforcourses

I take your point,but in the time it takes in researching all of the data surely you can understand that i am only human and can overlook something.

The 10 year trend takes into account what has gone on in the past and may be repeated in the future,i reiterate,it is not an exact science,it is merely guide to winner finding.In many cases it may have helped punters in some way in coming to a conclusion of what horse,if any,they may have a flutter on.
Report Horsesforcourses April 9, 2010 9:42 PM BST
Apologies If I came across as harsh - was just trying to explain the need to identify the underlying trend.

Gl with your selections.
Report dug April 9, 2010 9:51 PM BST
Horsesforcourses

Good luck with your selection.

At the moment i haven't yet made up my mind what to have a bet on,whatever it is,it will only be a minor flutter.

I enjoyed the exercise of seeking out the 10 year trends in the National,not an easy task,but a worthwhile experience to me as i often use trends in seeking out a betting opportunity at longish odds,at least i have now learned a little from you as well.
Report dug April 10, 2010 7:21 AM BST
An update this morning of the present prices of the 7 qualifiers is as follows :-

BEAT THE BOYS -------100/1
SNOWY MORNING --- 16/1
CAN'T BUY TIME ------ 40/1
BIG FELLAH THANKS --10/1
ELLERSLIE GEORGE --100/1
BALLY FITZ ------------ 50/1
OLLIE MAGERN --------150/1
Report Me2 April 10, 2010 8:05 AM BST
On the class debate, I think the waters are muddied by the BHA at one stage changing from using letters to numbers. Nowadays it is Class 1, instead of Class A. Class 1 can either be Listed, Grade A, Grade B or Grade C.

Mon Mome won a Class 1 Listed Chase
Comply Or Die won a Class 1 Grade 2 (Novice) Chase
Silver Birch won a Grade 3
Amberleigh House wons a Grade 2 and a Grade 3
etc

So the criterion is having won any Class 1 Chase, or in any words any Pattern Chase.

. . . I think.
Report Me2 April 10, 2010 8:07 AM BST
Hello Bud may have been excluded by the Original Poster because his Official Rating is currently 133, rather than taking account of his rating for the GN.
Report Horsesforcourses April 10, 2010 8:16 AM BST
Your previous post Me2 is what I was trying to get at - you've clearly communicated it far better!

I believe dug achieved the stats by looking at previous results so on that basis it would have been Hello Bud's current mark rather than future (I think).
Report dug April 10, 2010 9:14 AM BST
Horsesforcourses

It is correct that HELLO BUD was eliminated because of his rating but I didn't want to be too dogmatic because you had a valid point which needed addressing.
Report dug April 10, 2010 9:46 AM BST
Horsesforcourses
The 'trend' therefore is listed class or better.

You are entirely correct.

This is the first time that i having looked at and produced winning trends for the Grand National as it is not a race i would normally bet in,it was a mammoth task but i will learn from it as i normally do.

I normally look at the better handicaps with largish fields to try to spot something with value odds and normally an e.w bet.Over the years I have produced stats for well over a hundred handicaps and with experience i do find the need to tweak those stats from time to time.I have found it to be an interesting and worthwhile pastime.Some trends work out better than others and after years of working on these particular types of races i have spotted the races that have the most consistent trend records.

I don't know if you have read the annual book called 'Racing Trends' and produced by 'High Stakes' publishing but it can give an insight into the different methodology of looking at Trend races.I don't actually recommend the book, but it is a good starting point for producing your own Trend races.
Report beetle April 10, 2010 10:45 AM BST
can anyone tell me how many of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham and where they finished?
Report Deep Impact April 10, 2010 10:51 AM BST
Of the last 10, Silver Birch was 2nd in the X-Country & Bindaree was 7th in the W/Hill Chase - don't think any of the others ran at Cheltenham AFAIK
Report beetle April 10, 2010 12:09 PM BST
cheers DI
Report push April 10, 2010 5:35 PM BST
What did Value Scope select for the GN, please ?
Report Far From Trouble April 10, 2010 6:38 PM BST
^ Arbor Supreme/State Of Play
Report push April 10, 2010 6:39 PM BST
Thanks FFT.
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