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platinni
21 Mar 10 20:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 3,180 | Blogger: platinni's blog
ill outline my full thoughts on horses if you ask nicely :p

but here are my initial musings


1 P13621 Albertas Run23 9 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill 158 156 175
Probable non runner, far better over 2.5 miles
2 1-3244 Madison Du Berlais42 9 11-10 D E Pipe 158 157 166
Non stayer, out of form, top weight
3 1F544U Notre Pere49 9 11-10 J T R Dreaper 158 129 157
Out of sorts this term, needs soft ground, impossible weight
4 214P/1 Taranis70 9 11-9 P F Nicholls DOUBTFUL 157 101 168
Non runner
5 O81280 Our Vic23 12 11-8 D E Pipe 156 167 173
Non stayer, hard season
6 -P3463 Mon Mome22 10 11-7 Miss Venetia Williams 155 158 162
Place chance , but could end up near top weight which would rule him out
7 51U-02 Black Apalachi49 11 11-6 D T Hughes 154 111 166
Place chance also but too much weight and not ideal prep (as in too few runs but goes well fresh)
8 -50030 Joe Lively25 11 11-6 C L Tizzard 154 125 172
Poorly handicapped and no chance on current form
9 211501 Vic Venturi49 10 11-6 D T Hughes 154 158 168
Needs soft ground and small fields
10 072-00 Comply Or Die25 11 11-5 D E Pipe 153 130 131
Poor prep this year and not getting any younger
11 1-423P Don´t Push It23 10 11-5 Jonjo O´Neill 153 158 168
Weighted out of it now
12 U2474P Made In Taipan23 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 152 159 168
Non stayer, poorly handicapped
13 -83529 Niche Market25 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152 159 164
Poorly handicapped and ran shocking last time out
14 21-219 Tricky Trickster22 7 11-4 P F Nicholls 152 150 160
See niche market
15 5P-14B Casey Jones25 9 11-3 Noel Meade DOUBTFUL 151 121 166
RIP
16 U-3644 Cloudy Lane35 10 11-3 D McCain Jnr 151 160 164
Still not well in, couldnt chart off 10lbs lower
17 PP/21P Dream Alliance49 9 11-3 P J Hobbs 151 153 168
Poor form lto and not well weighted
18 P00-69 Nozic103 9 11-3 P F Nicholls 151 132 168
Non stayer
19 1-11P5 Possol22 7 11-3 H D Daly 151 128 171
Ran a couple of clunkers this year and is too young
20 3-2757 My Will22 10 11-2 P F Nicholls 150 147 163
Cant see him threatening on this years form
21 606-4F Pablo Du Charmil70 9 11-2 D E Pipe 150 134 165
Non stayer
22 304110 War Of Attrition23 11 11-1 M F Morris 149 121 163
Non runner
23 112313 Backstage62 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott 148 131 168
Poorly handicapped
24 -51117 Ballyholland41 9 11-0 C A McBratney 148 160 164
Poorly handicapped
25 -1P1PP Beat The Boys25 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 148 142 164
In awful form now and looks poorly handicapped
26 -780U0 Preists Leap25 10 11-0 Thomas Gerard O´Leary 148 111 155
Cant see him running
27 1-211B Roulez Cool22 7 11-0 R Waley-Cohen 148 134 165
Shown up lto as a hype job. Too young also
28 4F-016 Can´t Buy Time35 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill 147 136 168
Non stayer
29 71313P Le Beau Bai21 7 10-13 R Lee 147 153 165
Needs soft and looks poorly handicapped
30 1411P5 Seven Is My Number23 8 10-13 D E Pipe 147 147 168
Non stayer
31 183223 Snowy Morning41 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147 165 166
Place chance but still hasnt fully recaptured novice form
32 6-P3UF Air Force One24 8 10-12 C J Mann 146 138 151
Non runner
33 36-2U1 Big Fella Thanks35 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146 136 176
Favourite but is a tricky ride and will be outstayed
34 -41230 Deutschland24 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146 137 160
Non runner non stayer
35 22d133- Louping D´Ainay496 11 10-12 F-M Cottin DOUBTFUL 146
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Report trev w April 4, 2010 6:17 PM BST
fair enough mate..
if i think i see one like warne....i will mention it to ya
:)
Report Charlton2005 April 4, 2010 6:21 PM BST
Thanks Trev, that is why I often ask for advice from you guys.

:)
Report lordnoise April 4, 2010 6:23 PM BST
Its probably wont be bottomless but I dont think COD will get his ground this year. He won the GN on good ground - I know he won the Eider in the G-S but most of his form is on good ground.
Mon Mome is interesting in that his best form is on G-S and softer. His matching of his best non Aintree RPR of 155 in the Gold Cup this year means that hes not regressed - especially if you factor in the fact that it was run on unsuitably good ground for him.
The way he ran away from the field last year to win by 12 lengths coupled with some improvement could see him go close at least. And if hes a specialist freak like Red Rum then ...!!!
Report Fastbearform April 4, 2010 10:16 PM BST
I'm using 1 main trend at the mo that has given 9 of the last 11 winners. Am now giving some serious thought of the best way to narrow it down further. Of these, the ones that are probably too high in the weights are: Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Appalachi,and Comply or Die.

The borderline ones on weight are Niche Market, Tricky Trickster, and Dream Alliance.

The ones at the weights who do qualify are: My Will, Snowy Morning,Character Building, Eric's Charm, King John's Castle, Arbor Supreme and Maljimar. All guaranteed a run.
Hello Bud, Flintoff and a few others need to make the cut.
Report lordnoise April 4, 2010 10:35 PM BST
Fastbear - your obviously a trends man. Snowy Morning is the only horse in the last 20 years to have carried 11st and over to place (forget winning) within 15 lengths of the GN winner NOT to have run well in the GN or Gold Cup before. Snowy had however run a 6L 3rd in the Gr1 Irish Hennessy over 3m. Check the 3 your worried about weightwise against that trend.
Report Splicer Keats April 4, 2010 10:56 PM BST
^ not quite correct, a few have including suny bay 2nd with 12st ^
Report lordnoise April 4, 2010 11:00 PM BST
Had finished 2nd in the GN in 97.
Report Splicer Keats April 4, 2010 11:08 PM BST
apologies, didnt read the statement, was thinking of horses over 11st to place and there aint many of them either
Report lordnoise April 4, 2010 11:21 PM BST
It is amazing when you go through the results (like the sad person that I am) how the 11 stoneish thing comes into play even in the places. In the last 10 years there are more placed 11 stoners (probably due to the compressed handicap thing) but they are GN specialists or 3 milers of the highest class.
Report Fastbearform April 5, 2010 10:59 AM BST
I've thrown out Maljimar on the grounds that although it's gone close to winning at 3m+, it hasn't yet met that requirement. 1 down!
Report Fastbearform April 5, 2010 11:02 AM BST
What time do the decs come online?
Report platinni April 5, 2010 11:12 AM BST
arbor 25's on here now :(
Report Terry Venables April 5, 2010 11:13 AM BST
Plat

Someones p.ssing around with him since Friday.

If hes a nonner why not announce it Friday??
Report Terry Venables April 5, 2010 11:15 AM BST
Next hour will tell us a lot, with decs due @ 12.00
Report turnip turns April 5, 2010 11:15 AM BST
Laying off innit,probably got massive price,and wants to get matched,quickly :^0
Report platinni April 5, 2010 11:17 AM BST
;) tt

dor mkt not till thursday ydc :D
Report Fastbearform April 5, 2010 11:18 AM BST
TV ;) tt :x
Report turnip turns April 5, 2010 11:19 AM BST
Plat ;) you off to Fairy ?
Report turnip turns April 5, 2010 11:20 AM BST
Bear :x
Report platinni April 5, 2010 11:20 AM BST
aye , heading now
Report turnip turns April 5, 2010 11:21 AM BST
Ave a good un Plat ;)
Report Terry Venables April 5, 2010 11:21 AM BST
FBF ;)
Report Deep Impact April 5, 2010 12:45 PM BST
67 left in
Report Terry Venables April 5, 2010 12:45 PM BST
65 on here
Report trev w April 5, 2010 12:51 PM BST
whos on 40 pleez
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 5, 2010 12:53 PM BST
8 above Chief dan GEORGE

;)
Report trev w April 5, 2010 1:01 PM BST
cerium 40....as long as flintoff runs today....need 1 out to get royal rosa in...becarefull abey backers nrnb only ;)
Report pmt April 5, 2010 1:43 PM BST
Racing Post has it all wrong. cerium is joint 41st with Silver Birch.Flintoff is no 39 Abbeybraney is 40th.Its done on official ratings not on alphabetical order.Racing Post doh.
Report pipedreamer April 6, 2010 12:45 PM BST
But what happens if several horses have the same official rating?
Report Cobblaz April 6, 2010 12:51 PM BST
They draw lots, as will happen with Cerium & Silver Birch
Report downallstar April 6, 2010 1:05 PM BST
Silver Birch ranked 41st after National draw

BY RACINGPOST.COM STAFF 11:59AM 6 APR 2010

SILVER BIRCH will be ranked 41st in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday following a draw at Weatherbys on Tuesday morning.


Cerium, the other horse entered in the draw, will now be ranked 42nd behind the 2007 winner, with the pair both set to carry 10st 5lb.


Silver Birch will be first reserve for the Aintree showpiece should the 40 runners above him stand their ground, and currently needs just one horse to come out to take his place in the line-up on April 10.

The 13-year-old, who is trained by Gordon Elliott, is a best-priced 66-1 forthe Grand National.
Report platinni April 6, 2010 9:53 PM BST
2 1-3244 Madison Du Berlais42 9 11-10 D E Pipe 158 157 166
Non stayer, out of form, top weight.

strange decision imo but cant have him on this seasons form all winners in the past 15 have shown some thing near their best form in the current season. more so off top weight i reckon


6 -P3463 Mon Mome22 10 11-7 Miss Venetia Williams 155 158 162
Place chance , but could end up near top weight which would rule him out.

hasnt really shown anything this season to say he could win off this weight (even his run in the gc) imo. shocking price

7 51U-02 Black Apalachi49 11 11-6 D T Hughes 154 111 166
Place chance also but too much weight and not ideal prep (as in too few runs but goes well fresh)

have a long hard look at dessies form recently. had a winner today that said but some have been running atrocious.

8 -50030 Joe Lively25 11 11-6 C L Tizzard 154 125 172
Poorly handicapped and no chance on current form
Stick

9 211501 Vic Venturi49 10 11-6 D T Hughes 154 158 168
Needs soft ground and small fields

see BA

10 072-00 Comply Or Die25 11 11-5 D E Pipe 153 130 131
Poor prep this year and not getting any younger

interesting to see who timmy plums for

11 1-423P Don´t Push It23 10 11-5 Jonjo O´Neill 153 158 168
Weighted out of it now

cant see him figuring off this weight

12 U2474P Made In Taipan23 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 152 159 168
Non stayer, poorly handicapped

stick

13 -83529 Niche Market25 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152 159 164
Poorly handicapped and ran shocking last time out

both tt and nm have thrown away there chances imo

14 21-219 Tricky Trickster22 7 11-4 P F Nicholls 152 150 160
See niche market


16 U-3644 Cloudy Lane35 10 11-3 D McCain Jnr 151 160 164
Still not well in, couldnt chart off 10lbs lower
Stick

17 PP/21P Dream Alliance49 9 11-3 P J Hobbs 151 153 168
Poor form lto and not well weighted

good ground and this weight? very optimistic

18 P00-69 Nozic103 9 11-3 P F Nicholls 151 132 168
Non stayer


20 3-2757 My Will22 10 11-2 P F Nicholls 150 147 163
Cant see him threatening on this years form

see mad du berlais

21 606-4F Pablo Du Charmil70 9 11-2 D E Pipe 150 134 165
Non stayer

150/1 is a bit skinny


23 112313 Backstage62 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott 148 131 168
Poorly handicapped

addressed on this thread. won a shocking race and has got ridden for it.

24 -51117 Ballyholland41 9 11-0 C A McBratney 148 160 164
Poorly handicapped

stick

25 -1P1PP Beat The Boys25 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 148 142 164
In awful form now and looks poorly handicapped
stick

26 Priest leap

no


28 4F-016 Can´t Buy Time35 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill 147 136 168
Non stayer


31 183223 Snowy Morning41 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147 165 166
Place chance but still hasnt fully recaptured novice form

bit of money for him today. could be a placer but reckon his stablemate is a better fit


33 36-2U1 Big Fella Thanks35 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146 136 176
Favourite but is a tricky ride and will be outstayed

Stick

41 /144-P State Of Play133 10 10-11 Evan Williams 145
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2010 9:55 PM BST
Lazy man's approach.Ignored.
Report platinni April 6, 2010 9:58 PM BST
ouchie :(
Report nibbledat April 6, 2010 9:58 PM BST
:^0
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2010 9:58 PM BST
:)
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2010 9:59 PM BST
Was actually doing my impersonation of you there Nibb.

:)

WD Plat, looks like you are on a 10/1 ish shot at much longer prices.

GL for saturday
Report nibbledat April 6, 2010 10:01 PM BST
;) c2

gl plat :D
Report platinni April 6, 2010 10:04 PM BST
gl to us all

B-)
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2010 10:17 PM BST
That leaves me with Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme and Irish Raptor, so they are currently my 3 against the field. May change after more horses have had their prep runs but I have had small investments at current prices.


Ilnamars thoughts.

Between Plat and the above anyone not taking AS and Bally E/W is an idiot.
Report Cobblaz April 6, 2010 10:22 PM BST
Well, I'm an idiot, cos I never back anything ew in the Nash. Win only
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2010 10:27 PM BST
Of course if Chief Dan George wins, then I'll be asking Nibb to send his brothers round to see you Plat.
Report platinni April 6, 2010 10:29 PM BST
ill rate him if he gets in c2. i picked him out for the billy hill and didnt back :_|
Report Charlton2005 April 6, 2010 10:33 PM BST
TBH I am now hoping he doesn't get in, as I saw he was top rated and 150/1, so figured he definitely wouldn't run and left him. :(
Report thedemps April 6, 2010 11:10 PM BST
Cobblaz 06 Apr 22:22

Well, I'm an idiot, cos I never back anything ew in the Nash. Win only


If you have one that you expect to get round EW is the better bet esp with 1/4 the odds for 5 places 20% better place terms than win
Report bestmate April 6, 2010 11:27 PM BST
great update as usual Plat & good luck with AS. some money for it today but Price seems to be holding & Laddies are biggest which is a worry.
I have also warmed up to Snowy in last 24 hours. Looks on a fair mark & rain has stopped in time. Have also backed Maljimar & 45-50 is a fair price. My other two are the hype horses that sucked me into backing them Dont Push & CB
Report Far From Trouble April 6, 2010 11:36 PM BST
couldn't agree more with your Character Building assessment ;)
Report Far From Trouble April 6, 2010 11:36 PM BST
apart from you missing "he's a bit gay"
Report platinni April 6, 2010 11:55 PM BST
hi bm

ladbrookes and billies were biggest about bluesea also fwiw ;)

yes fft, cant get over how many times the money comes for that horse
Report Steeplechasing April 7, 2010 12:11 AM BST
Fair update Plat but given that Character Building jumps exceptionally well and stays,and will probably get his ground, I wouldn't dismiss him readily.

I've no doubt you will see the tongue tie back on him for the first time since he sauntered up in the 2009 Kim Muir with a tie on his tongue and 11.12 on his back.

Must be on the short list for me

Also, I'm not sure who is the more enigmatic HoJo or his horse Royal Rosa but I read that he intends taking out Abbeybraney if necessary to get RR in.

The horse has talent and hasn't run too badly this season, including a 3rd in the Becher when 9lbs wrong and under a rather injudicious ride. 6th in the 2006 Scottish National, he's worth a small bet at 150s here.
Report platinni April 7, 2010 12:15 AM BST
im not dismissive steeple, ive just seen plunges on this horse year after year and he hasnt backed it up bar one or two performances neither of which entitle him to take this. plus he has done nought this year which is a major neg for me

royal rosa is a hound but it is interesting that hjh fancies him so much but maybe its an indictment against abbeybraney?
Report Steeplechasing April 7, 2010 12:30 AM BST
Aye, plat, he's quirky, no doubt but I had a strong feeling that the tie was the key to him when he won at the Festival and did my brains in him for the National then (taken out injured). Returned in a hurdle, then had his prep at the Festival, imo, both without the tie.

It interested me too that the new owners, who'd tried to buy him after his Kim Muir victory, retained their enthusiasm for the deal despite his poor form.

As always, there ain't many you can almost guarantee will stay and jump and, touch wood, he is one.
Report dirt April 7, 2010 9:59 AM BST
I know that trends aren't everyone's cup of tea, but isn't there a recent trend for the winner of this to have taken a Class 1 chase before the race?

The Kim muir is a tough race, but it is a Class 2 and Character Building has won little else.

That race in Ireland that Arbor Supreme beat Black Apalachi in - that's not a Class 1 race either is it? I might be wrong about that, but if this trend holds up then...

Arbor Supreme looks tailor-made for this and ran well in the 2009 Thyestes, but he ran poorly in this year's race and didn't get into last season's Irish National too. Sorry if this has been dealt with already.
Report lordnoise April 7, 2010 11:13 AM BST
I keep on noticing that its not so much what youve won that matters but what quality of race youve been placed in. If you win a good race you get clouted by the handicapper. What weight would Arbor Supreme be carrying if hed won the Irish National instead of running badly in it ?
Report dirt April 7, 2010 11:49 AM BST
As a long -range ante post backer of Niche Market, I agree to a point. What they were complaining about after his Aon run beggars belief - as if giving Denman a race was going to result in anything other than a hike in the weights. However, he only went up 9lbs for winning The Irish National.

I don't think the bad run by Arbor Supreme in the same race was anything but a bad run in a big race. He wasn't unfancied at 12/1, and off 140. Here he runs off 142, but would still probably have just shy of 11st had he won at Fairyhouse. Also, the ground was offered as mitigation for this year's Thyestes, but he has run well with plenty of give before, so I can only assume he wasn't there to run a big race in that one off 141 just before the weights for this were published.

I assume Mc Coy had the chance to ride since he's ridden him before with Townend on others, but I must admit to not reading stories about how they arrived at jockey bookings either, so happy to be put right there.

I think he'll be the steamer on Saturday. He'll be talked up and punters will latch on I think. I'm not of course writing him off, but there's enough doubt in my mind to watch rather than play.
Report platinni April 7, 2010 12:01 PM BST
dirt - this has been dealt with . equis max was fancied this time around also, how did he fair off 143 in the irish national?
Report dirt April 7, 2010 12:09 PM BST
Cool - my own laziness for not reading the whole thread - too long for my attention span!

All the best with your bets all the same.
Report town moor April 7, 2010 1:13 PM BST
I really can't have arbor supreme after McCoy said on atr "he should be 16-1 to get around".
Report downallstar April 7, 2010 2:49 PM BST
MDB - meets all the trends bar weight/rating. Has won at the course over 25f last year(not GN fences). Wouldn't fancy him off a stone less.
Mon Mome - only 7lbs higher than last year and ran a real eye catcher in the GC, again meets all the trends bar weight. Place chances.
Vic Venturi - Beecher chase winner, weight would be the only concern, but the hcapper thinks he is best in(along with Black Apalachi). Has won 3 times this season - last 10 winners had won no more than once.
Black Apalachi - Beecher chase winner of 2 seasons ago. Going very well when unseated last year, only 1lbs higher this year. Has only had 2 runs this season.
Joe Lively - meets a lot of the trends, again bar weight, only really fails on the Top 5 Hennessy/ Top 3 IGN or SGN or WGN... etc.
Don't Push It - Meets all the trends, bar weight. Will be well supported if AP plums for him, has a great ew chance.
Comply Or Die - winner 2 years ago, 2nd last year, 7lbs better off with MM, but has only ran twice this season. Place chances again.
Tricky Trickster - Is a 7yo, with 11-4, has only had 3 runs this season and 6 chase runs ever! Combine that with blowing his chances by winning the Aon. Stays well, but not for me.
Niche Market - IGN winner last year, 3rd in the Hennessy, Denman fluffing his lines in the Aon didn't help his weight, but meets all the trends, and must have a great chance.
Made in Tiapan - where to start? Weight, class, trip all against him, looks madness to run him.
Dream Alliance - WGN winner, 2nd in the 2007 Hennessy, only has the 3 runs this term, but meets every other trend and must have a great ew shout.
Cloudy Lane - No top 3 finish last 3 runs, looks out of sorts and easily passed over.
Nozic - Fails on a few trends - no top3/last3; only 2 runs this season; last run over 50days ago & doesn't meet the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend.
My Will - 3rd in the race last year off 2lbs higher, form is solid if not great(no Top3/last3), may have come in under the radar this term, is 5 times his sp from last year.
Pablo Du Charmil - fails on at least 6 trends, no.
Ballyholland - Hasn't won a 3mile+ chase, no top3 in a C1 3mile chase, the trip is must be a serious concern. Fails on at least 3 trends.
Backstage - only 9 chase starts(10+ the trend), no top 3 C1 3mile, fails on the TS 128+, and also the Top 5 hennessy etc.
Beat The Boys - Meets quite a few trends, all bar the Top 5 Hennessy... trend, but has too many P's beside his name.
Priests Leap - Wants it soft, is out of form(no top3/last£), Fails on 4 trends. Too moody.
Snowy Morning - Meets all the trends, handles the course and fences, 9lbs lower than last year, and only 2 higher than when 3rd two years ago. Must have a great ew chance of this mark.
Can't Buy Time - only the 3 runs this term, never been in the top 3 C1 over 3miles+, and fails the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend. Fell in the race last year, trip is a concern.
Big Fella Thanks - big effort last year to finish 6th as a 7yo novice. Fails on two trends - only had 3 runs this year and no top 5 Hennessy etc. Could be very well treated of 146 though! Respected.
State of Play - 4th last year of 5lbs higher, only had the one run in which he pulled up which is a worry, did only run twice last year(but ran well both times). Fails on a few trends, and maybe one to back in running.
Character Building - only two runs this term, both don't look anything great on the face of it, but both were w/o the tongue tie. 3rd in the Hennessy in 2007, would be foolish to write him off.
Ellerisle George - meets all the trends bar TS and Top 5 Hennessy... Has won twice this season, and form at the course isn't great.
Eric's Charm - in great form, stays all day, has only ran twice this season, winning two of those runs, which are actually trend negatives. He is a 12yo too, which although trend positive, 9-11yos are preferred. Place chance at best.
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008, injury has kept him away from the track mostly. Fails quite a few trends, form being the main worry, as he was actually in good form two years ago. Reunited with Paul Carberry and will have his fans at 40/1.
Conna Castle - can't see how he will stay this trip?! Fails about 5 trends.
Ballyfitz - Fails on 3 trends - Top3/last3, not won a 20K+ chase, and top 5 Hennessy... Not a great jumper, despite never having fallen(did unseat once) must be a concern.
Ollie Magern - only fails on top3/last3, but at the age of 12 that must be a concern. Hard to fancy.
Arbour Supreme - Still only an 8yo, has only had the 3runs this term, and although he doesn't technically meet the top 5 Hennessy trend, he has won over 29&30f. There are a few questions marks as to whether or not he meets all the trends(won C2+ & top3 C1 over 3miles+). Have been waiting over two years for him to run in this, but I have a few nagging doubts.
Maljimar - avoided Cheltenham for this, so fails the 50day trend. Only had the 3 runs this season, but again been kept for this alone. Never actually won over 3miles+, but has placed. Stays, but it would be Crisp mark two if he was leading going to the elbow.
The Package - stays well, but is only a 7yo, and has only had 8 chase starts.A year too early for me.
Piraya - another 7yo, fails on a few trends, including having not won a 3mile+ chase. No.
Irish Raptor - first choice of the Gold Cup winning team and sure to be popular, but fails on too many trends for me.
Mr Pointment - may be pulled out to allow the stablemate Cerium in. Only fails on two trends - just ran once this season and has a TS of only 124(128+). On the form of old he'd have a good chance, but tbh there are a lot of question marks over him. Have had a small ew at 150/1.
PD Creek - another 7yo, only fails on age and Top 5 Hennessy etc. Would be better off in the Topham and waiting a year.
Hello Bud - SGN winner of last year, fails on no top3/last3 runs - which at the age of 12 must be a concern. Looks like a year too late.
Flintoff - was 3rd in the 2008 SGN, but fails on a lot of trends.
Abbeybraney - could be pulled out if the trainer thought Royal Rosa would get in. Only ever won once over fences, and fails too many trends.

Reserves
Silver Birch - 2007 winner, fell when going well last year. Fails on age(13) only.
Cerium - 5th last year at 100/1. fails a lot of trends, as he did last year, trainer is keen to see him run. Could run into the minor money again if he gets in.
Royal Rosa - trainer is keen for him to run, but looks too exposed and fails too many trends.
Knowhere - needs 4 to come out to get a run. Hard to fancy at the age of 12.
Whinestone Boy - Needs 5 to come out, looks a very unlikely runner, did like him, but he actually fails a lot of the trends, probably should have went for the IGN.

My Shortlist
Don't Push It
Nicke Market
Dream Alliance
Snowy Morning
& Arbour Supreme.
Report platinni April 7, 2010 6:40 PM BST
nice work das

the package hasnt a hope now sans timmy imo
Report bestmate April 7, 2010 7:16 PM BST
not much drift on package despite TM rejection
Report trev w April 7, 2010 7:20 PM BST
bestmate

think people must realise...it would be hard to get off a winner/ 2nd place...

i dont see it as a knock to the package....just him playing the %
Report platinni April 7, 2010 10:14 PM BST
incorrect trevor

massive neg, timmy is a must for the package. c+d well thumped last year, year older. same weight or so, coming in on worse form and he choses him over TP

gl
Report bestmate April 7, 2010 11:02 PM BST
Trev I was expecting a drift of a few points atleast with the rejection news. I must say the horse bothers me despite the 7 year old stat but the negativity from plat is reassuring!
On the contrary AS price moves by 2-3 point daily
Report pmt April 8, 2010 11:18 AM BST
1021: Breaking news...All the top 40 stand their ground in Saturday's John Smith's Grand National - Abbeybraney the last one in. Leaves Silver Birch as first reserve.
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2010 6:23 PM BST
Place lays for me

Niche Market
Tricky Trickster
Mon Mome
Black Apalachi

and I will need all 4 unplaced to win anything.

Also laid MM in the win market

GL
Report platinni April 8, 2010 9:33 PM BST
where does the blue cap stand in jp s pecking order of chances ?:|
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2010 9:42 PM BST
They know **k all Plat. YOU know.

;)
Report liam the lips April 8, 2010 9:43 PM BST
Had a closer look just, and Cloudy Lane is too big at 50s imo. He's had an easy prep this year, dropped a few pounds and the ground's gonna be fine. He jumped and travelled really well in the Grimthorpe last time and wud luv to see ginger on telly sprouting some crazy sh*t around half 4 !!
Report platinni April 8, 2010 9:43 PM BST
yesssssssssssssss c2

come onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


B-)
Report enjbenjy April 8, 2010 9:44 PM BST
You reckon blue cap is a negative or it really doesn't matter?
Report trev w April 8, 2010 9:44 PM BST
blue :0
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2010 9:45 PM BST
I'm finally on at 19 Plat. Got a bit nervous when you were putting up blue faces on the weekend, so missed the last bit of 20+.

Let's roll.
Report Stevie Gerrard April 8, 2010 9:53 PM BST
What about this Joe Lively?, couldn't he be the sort that thrives faced with the national test. he jumps and he stays, I know he has become disappointing and hard to predict but i've always felt he could be the type for this.
Report trev w April 8, 2010 10:03 PM BST
anyone else think soft ground lovers gonna get outpaced sat'd if the weather stays the same..

with horses like channibar...and silver adonis winning the hunters...is it riding a lot faster than we thought ?
Report Fastbearform April 8, 2010 10:04 PM BST
Hello,

As things stand at the mo for 'the big one', I now have my final list of four. I shall be backing them all ew and perming them in forecasts, (as long as there are no further changes to the final list of 40)

I have allowed myself a bit of flexibility on the trends because none of them are a perfect 100%.

The bottom weight is almost certainly going to be 10-05 which means I am going to look at the ones carrying 11-03 or less, (bearing in mind there's a woman riding Character Building) I won't be doing it now. (not being secksist I might add)

My 'final' list is:

Dream Alliance
My Will
Snowy Morning
Arbor Supreme.

Having said that, I still expect good runs from MM, BA, C or D and NM,

Hopefully I will be thereabouts.

Good luck if you play. :)
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2010 10:06 PM BST
trev w 08 Apr 22:03
anyone else think soft ground lovers gonna get outpaced sat'd if the weather stays the same..

with horses like channibar...and silver adonis winning the hunters...is it riding a lot faster than we thought ?



Sorry to make you spell this out Trev, but who are the soft grounders for tomorrow? Thanks
Report trev w April 8, 2010 10:10 PM BST
i really meant for the GN c2..with another day of drying..

could'nt tell you off hand...

but always waining is a def....and special envoy was gonna hose up on good ground here when with bowen.
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2010 10:14 PM BST
Hold the phone. Are you saying that both AW and SE are suited to dryer ground?
Report liam the lips April 8, 2010 10:17 PM BST
AW is if u belive WM.
Report trev w April 8, 2010 10:21 PM BST
yes.
esp AW.
Report Charlton2005 April 8, 2010 10:22 PM BST
TY Trev, backed both of them so happy with what you are telling me.

:)
Report Steeplechasing April 8, 2010 10:44 PM BST
Seeking the final dregs of value, Comply or Die still seems bigger than he should be and I think Don't Push It is a few points too long.

Normally a very consistent horse, he ran a rare poor race last time out over hurdles but his fencing form has been top notch. He just failed to give almost two stones to Galant Nuit at Cheltenham in November and that one went on to run a good third in the Kim Muir.

DPI would then have had every chance of beating Our Vic and the others at Warwick bar a blunder at the last. He does hit the occasional one but if the National fences scare him into picking his feet up, I think he has a huge chance.

AP's mounts are normally well overbet in this race so it will be ironic that this one, his best chance for some years imo, might win it at a value price.

Had he bypassed Cheltenham, I think he'd be closer to half his current odds.
Report bestmate April 9, 2010 8:52 PM BST
Final selection time. My stable includes
MALJIMAR (life changing bet and getting confident that this will hose up)
DONT PUSH IT(Stable hitting top form at the right time)
ARBOR SUPREME(losing confidence in this one)
SNOWY MORNING(doubt it will win but place yes)
CHARACTER BUILDING(why did I back this one)

The money for King JC is astonishing & given the connections is not to be ignored lightly. Thinking of a plunge myself but you can't back all! but there has to be a story & the national story tomorrow: Two greys ridden by brother & sister fight out the finish
Report platinni April 10, 2010 11:48 AM BST
gl bm

shiit or bust time

love it :D
Report platinni April 10, 2010 3:44 PM BST
COME ON ARBOR!

and gl all
Report _royboy_ April 10, 2010 3:51 PM BST
gl all
Report _royboy_ April 10, 2010 3:53 PM BST
my stable
big fella @ 20
tricky @ 14
arbor @ 22 (cause of king plat)
bally @ 95 (cause of everyone else)
Report bestmate April 10, 2010 4:35 PM BST
someone had to boom so here it is
BOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!
Well done Steeple
Report Charlton2005 April 10, 2010 4:36 PM BST
Plat, the WHITE cap FFS

:(
Report Stevie Gerrard April 10, 2010 4:36 PM BST
yes excellect call steeplechasing
Report platinni April 10, 2010 4:37 PM BST
wp bm and steeple

great stuff
Report bestmate April 10, 2010 4:44 PM BST
Thanks Plat
the 11 st. theory was bound to come under strain after last year. I did check that DPI scores well on Mordin system if you make allowance for 11 st & give weightage to DPI cheltenham win which was a top race imo
Report platinni April 10, 2010 4:47 PM BST
aye, just thought there were better handicapped horses

i remember nick putting him up months ago
Report Deep Impact April 10, 2010 4:50 PM BST
Only stat DPI failed on my trends was the 'no more than 12lbs above bottom weight' one :|
Report platinni April 10, 2010 4:52 PM BST
likewise deep, plus only the one win over 3 but the gallant nuit race hindsight was a decent yardstick
Report Deep Impact April 10, 2010 4:57 PM BST
The Key races/wins over 3m+ trends smack of backfitting imo - I use:

Top 3 Finish in a Class1 Chase over 3m+
&
Won Listed/Graded Chase

Weight is now difficult to assess with compression of handicap - the fact remains Red Rum is still the only horse to defy over 11-5 in the last 50 years (Twice!!)
Report bestmate April 10, 2010 5:01 PM BST
DON'T PUSH IT A SERIOUS GRAND NATIONAL PROSPECT

I suggested after his seasonal debut that DON'T PUSH IT (39) would do much better over a longer trip. He proved me right by staying on tremendously well in the valuable Servo Trophy over nearly three and a half miles at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He fairly stormed home from the last but couldn't quite get here, losing by a rapidly diminishing half length.

Don't Push It was hunted around by Tony McCoy in last place for most of the race but moved up smoothly coming down the hill approaching the third last. Unfortunately he collided in mid air with Russian Trigger jumping that fence and was turned sideways on landing. He had to get going again and did so in style. But for the mishap he would surely have won.

I liked the way Don't Push It navigated his way through traffic, recovered so well from being hampered and stayed on strongly in what was a stamina-sapping race. I can easily picture him doing very well in the Grand National after this performance. Indeed I'd say he's the best Grand National prospect we've seen so far this season.

Don't Push It certainly looks the best Grand National prospect Jonjo O'Neill has had since Clan Royal who ran second and third in the Aintree marathon. Clan Royal was given a very light campaign both seasons he placed in the race and was switched back to hurdles to protect his handicap mark, just as many of the top Irish candidates for the big race are. So I'd bet on Jonjo going the same route with Don't Push It who actually showed smart form over timber last term when he ran second to Fair Along and Big Buck's, two of the top staying hurdlers.

NICK MORDIN
Report Steeplechasing April 10, 2010 5:05 PM BST
DPI was backable on Wednesday at 65 here . . .

(thinly veiled after-timing, I know, but an incredible price)
Report Charlton2005 April 10, 2010 5:37 PM BST
WD to you SC. And you BM and Nick too.
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