Horse Antepost
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ill outline my full thoughts on horses if you ask nicely :p
but here are my initial musings
1 P13621 Albertas Run23 9 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill 158 156 175
Probable non runner, far better over 2.5 miles
2 1-3244 Madison Du Berlais42 9 11-10 D E Pipe 158 157 166
Non stayer, out of form, top weight
3 1F544U Notre Pere49 9 11-10 J T R Dreaper 158 129 157
Out of sorts this term, needs soft ground, impossible weight
4 214P/1 Taranis70 9 11-9 P F Nicholls DOUBTFUL 157 101 168
Non runner
5 O81280 Our Vic23 12 11-8 D E Pipe 156 167 173
Non stayer, hard season
6 -P3463 Mon Mome22 10 11-7 Miss Venetia Williams 155 158 162
Place chance , but could end up near top weight which would rule him out
7 51U-02 Black Apalachi49 11 11-6 D T Hughes 154 111 166
Place chance also but too much weight and not ideal prep (as in too few runs but goes well fresh)
8 -50030 Joe Lively25 11 11-6 C L Tizzard 154 125 172
Poorly handicapped and no chance on current form
9 211501 Vic Venturi49 10 11-6 D T Hughes 154 158 168
Needs soft ground and small fields
10 072-00 Comply Or Die25 11 11-5 D E Pipe 153 130 131
Poor prep this year and not getting any younger
11 1-423P Don´t Push It23 10 11-5 Jonjo O´Neill 153 158 168
Weighted out of it now
12 U2474P Made In Taipan23 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 152 159 168
Non stayer, poorly handicapped
13 -83529 Niche Market25 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152 159 164
Poorly handicapped and ran shocking last time out
14 21-219 Tricky Trickster22 7 11-4 P F Nicholls 152 150 160
See niche market
15 5P-14B Casey Jones25 9 11-3 Noel Meade DOUBTFUL 151 121 166
RIP
16 U-3644 Cloudy Lane35 10 11-3 D McCain Jnr 151 160 164
Still not well in, couldnt chart off 10lbs lower
17 PP/21P Dream Alliance49 9 11-3 P J Hobbs 151 153 168
Poor form lto and not well weighted
18 P00-69 Nozic103 9 11-3 P F Nicholls 151 132 168
Non stayer
19 1-11P5 Possol22 7 11-3 H D Daly 151 128 171
Ran a couple of clunkers this year and is too young
20 3-2757 My Will22 10 11-2 P F Nicholls 150 147 163
Cant see him threatening on this years form
21 606-4F Pablo Du Charmil70 9 11-2 D E Pipe 150 134 165
Non stayer
22 304110 War Of Attrition23 11 11-1 M F Morris 149 121 163
Non runner
23 112313 Backstage62 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott 148 131 168
Poorly handicapped
24 -51117 Ballyholland41 9 11-0 C A McBratney 148 160 164
Poorly handicapped
25 -1P1PP Beat The Boys25 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 148 142 164
In awful form now and looks poorly handicapped
26 -780U0 Preists Leap25 10 11-0 Thomas Gerard O´Leary 148 111 155
Cant see him running
27 1-211B Roulez Cool22 7 11-0 R Waley-Cohen 148 134 165
Shown up lto as a hype job. Too young also
28 4F-016 Can´t Buy Time35 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill 147 136 168
Non stayer
29 71313P Le Beau Bai21 7 10-13 R Lee 147 153 165
Needs soft and looks poorly handicapped
30 1411P5 Seven Is My Number23 8 10-13 D E Pipe 147 147 168
Non stayer
31 183223 Snowy Morning41 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147 165 166
Place chance but still hasnt fully recaptured novice form
32 6-P3UF Air Force One24 8 10-12 C J Mann 146 138 151
Non runner
33 36-2U1 Big Fella Thanks35 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146 136 176
Favourite but is a tricky ride and will be outstayed
34 -41230 Deutschland24 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146 137 160
Non runner non stayer
35 22d133- Louping D´Ainay496 11 10-12 F-M Cottin DOUBTFUL 146
but here are my initial musings
1 P13621 Albertas Run23 9 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill 158 156 175
Probable non runner, far better over 2.5 miles
2 1-3244 Madison Du Berlais42 9 11-10 D E Pipe 158 157 166
Non stayer, out of form, top weight
3 1F544U Notre Pere49 9 11-10 J T R Dreaper 158 129 157
Out of sorts this term, needs soft ground, impossible weight
4 214P/1 Taranis70 9 11-9 P F Nicholls DOUBTFUL 157 101 168
Non runner
5 O81280 Our Vic23 12 11-8 D E Pipe 156 167 173
Non stayer, hard season
6 -P3463 Mon Mome22 10 11-7 Miss Venetia Williams 155 158 162
Place chance , but could end up near top weight which would rule him out
7 51U-02 Black Apalachi49 11 11-6 D T Hughes 154 111 166
Place chance also but too much weight and not ideal prep (as in too few runs but goes well fresh)
8 -50030 Joe Lively25 11 11-6 C L Tizzard 154 125 172
Poorly handicapped and no chance on current form
9 211501 Vic Venturi49 10 11-6 D T Hughes 154 158 168
Needs soft ground and small fields
10 072-00 Comply Or Die25 11 11-5 D E Pipe 153 130 131
Poor prep this year and not getting any younger
11 1-423P Don´t Push It23 10 11-5 Jonjo O´Neill 153 158 168
Weighted out of it now
12 U2474P Made In Taipan23 8 11-4 Thomas Mullins 152 159 168
Non stayer, poorly handicapped
13 -83529 Niche Market25 9 11-4 R H Buckler 152 159 164
Poorly handicapped and ran shocking last time out
14 21-219 Tricky Trickster22 7 11-4 P F Nicholls 152 150 160
See niche market
15 5P-14B Casey Jones25 9 11-3 Noel Meade DOUBTFUL 151 121 166
RIP
16 U-3644 Cloudy Lane35 10 11-3 D McCain Jnr 151 160 164
Still not well in, couldnt chart off 10lbs lower
17 PP/21P Dream Alliance49 9 11-3 P J Hobbs 151 153 168
Poor form lto and not well weighted
18 P00-69 Nozic103 9 11-3 P F Nicholls 151 132 168
Non stayer
19 1-11P5 Possol22 7 11-3 H D Daly 151 128 171
Ran a couple of clunkers this year and is too young
20 3-2757 My Will22 10 11-2 P F Nicholls 150 147 163
Cant see him threatening on this years form
21 606-4F Pablo Du Charmil70 9 11-2 D E Pipe 150 134 165
Non stayer
22 304110 War Of Attrition23 11 11-1 M F Morris 149 121 163
Non runner
23 112313 Backstage62 8 11-0 Gordon Elliott 148 131 168
Poorly handicapped
24 -51117 Ballyholland41 9 11-0 C A McBratney 148 160 164
Poorly handicapped
25 -1P1PP Beat The Boys25 9 11-0 N A Twiston-Davies 148 142 164
In awful form now and looks poorly handicapped
26 -780U0 Preists Leap25 10 11-0 Thomas Gerard O´Leary 148 111 155
Cant see him running
27 1-211B Roulez Cool22 7 11-0 R Waley-Cohen 148 134 165
Shown up lto as a hype job. Too young also
28 4F-016 Can´t Buy Time35 8 10-13 Jonjo O´Neill 147 136 168
Non stayer
29 71313P Le Beau Bai21 7 10-13 R Lee 147 153 165
Needs soft and looks poorly handicapped
30 1411P5 Seven Is My Number23 8 10-13 D E Pipe 147 147 168
Non stayer
31 183223 Snowy Morning41 10 10-13 W P Mullins 147 165 166
Place chance but still hasnt fully recaptured novice form
32 6-P3UF Air Force One24 8 10-12 C J Mann 146 138 151
Non runner
33 36-2U1 Big Fella Thanks35 8 10-12 P F Nicholls 146 136 176
Favourite but is a tricky ride and will be outstayed
34 -41230 Deutschland24 7 10-12 W P Mullins 146 137 160
Non runner non stayer
35 22d133- Louping D´Ainay496 11 10-12 F-M Cottin DOUBTFUL 146
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Replies: 389
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Bally it is then ;)
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Don't Push It lags up
hth |
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DPI won once over 3m at aintree. couldnt beat our vic getting weight and PU off 10lb lower mark over hurdles lto
gimme a break |
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So you are tipping Eric`s Charm?
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tipping
arbor supreme and ballyfitz ill see if EC runs. vet race lto and a gash race before that isnt much. plus 2 wins is not ideal stats wise. finally he;s best in small fields |
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When was Don't Push It getting 10lbs from Our Vic please? ?:|
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sorry, getting weight? ?:|
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^ read agin dc
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ouldnt beat our vic getting weight and PU off 10lb lower mark over hurdles lto
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I saw that :|
a PU isn't an ideal prep, but neither was Mon Mome's megamashing in the Midlands National |
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sry mixed them up, thought OV was off 158 and he was 155 . mea culpa. but still.....
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Did you see my Don't Push It - Grand National thread from last week?
I thought I made a reasonable enough case tbf :| |
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THE PACKAGE nap
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mordin likes him too
i think he mightnt stay im not convinced he's well in carrying 11-5 to 11-7? soz not for me |
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I thought the way he ran on at Cheltenham (almost beating a Ferdy horse giving him almost 2 stone) over 3m4f would suggest he is a likely stayer tbh
Opinion, opinions innit? :p i've took the chance at 40/1 to be honest i've no real strong fancies for this year, and have like over a dozen horses at different times |
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a lot of work put in plat and after your county hurdle thread I really should listen to you, but.......
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Backstage is not badly handicapped imo and the winner aint in the list :D
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winner is in the list just dismissed as non stayer ;)
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My idea of winner
60 -92312 The Package25 7 10-7 D E Pipe 141 164 172 non stayer and too young |
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ps good thread
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yep, just because he's staying on past tired horses doesnt make him a stayer
and as for backstage - an 8yo off 11 st after going up 11lbs for a horrendous race. ill stick with my analysis |
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cheers soap, all opines welcome of course
offski now. |
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binocular surely if he gets rerouted.
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Is there any reason Cerium is 140/1? 5th last year when too young and had a nice prep in the Gold Cup when jumping round at his own pace as per last year.Should just make the cut and looks to have been brought to a peak for the race.
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agree ^^^^ love this horse - the race he ran last year was so brave given he had a fractured skull. If he gets in, I see him running a big race again. Concern is, whether he'll get in
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Iris De Balme is a totally different animal on decent ground
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Maljamar
non stayer ? look at its last run |
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Palypso not classy enough ? Winner of a G3 24f chase in France, 2 and a bit length second in the G2 Peter Marsh and 4th in the Listed Becher over the National fences - are you sure ?
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How is Razor Royal badly handicapped? He's off the same mark he won the Racing Post from.
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Vic Venturi
Close 2nd on 3 occasions in fields of 17,20 and 28. One on good going one in Paddy Power one beating Arb.Sup. |
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He's my pick at this stage too. Looked in great nick with himself lto.
Ballyfitz was the other. Posted on that ''Ballyfitz says bye'' thread. The big fences could be the making of him. |
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On a purely trends basis - Dream alliance & Niche Market.
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cane brake n/r .
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Vic Venturi?must be looking at a different form book to me.
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I've gone for King Johns Castle at 50s, 2nd in national 2 years ago. not had alot of races since. his first run this season at punchestown wasn't far off his old form. disappointing next time and then 2 runs over hurdles. National looks clearly the plan.
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penzance 22 Mar 11:51
Vic Venturi?must be looking at a different form book to me. on what basis ? |
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not you the poster.
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oh - sorry ! I agree with you ;)
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Nice analysis, plat. Just want to query one:
49 395467 Ollie Magern25 12 10-9 N A Twiston-Davies 143 152 158 Poor form I actually thought he ran a decent prep in the WH chase at Cheltenham. We all know NTD can do no wrong at the moment, and I also think he fits many of the big National trends. Well worth a punt at 150/1 I reckon. |