Supreme Nov - thoughts and stab at a price...

Supreme Novice Hurdle

When the roar goes up for the first race you know Santa's arrived with an adult version of Christmas day. All hopes, fears, dreams and (most ) ante-post vouchers still alive for at least a few more minutes......

Traditionally you are looking for an Irish trained 5 or 6 year old crack hurdler who's managed a win last time up and rated in the 130s bracket....it's also been a bit of a graveyard for highly touted Irish hot pots with often an emerald isle winner without the hype. Think of Sweet Wake and Cousin Vinny as recent examples and it pays to look at all the contenders from over the water whatever the price ( Ebaziyan !!!!! )

The English have had a few winners in the last ten years with Arcalis and Noland but prior to that you have to crank the memory bank and recall Hors La Loi III in 1999 so the Irish have held sway for sure. This year it's all about last years Champion Bumper winner Dunguib and the market suggests the Phillip Fenton beast is a Rolls Royce of a horse surrounded by Punto's and Fiesta's and it may well be right. We have yet to see the horse off the bridle in four hack canter victories over the novices at home and only to destroy his field did he seem to get the hurry up at Cheltenham last March completely eating the hill like a pac man game........new Istabracq perhaps but what are the negatives?

Firstly Dunguib is 7 which is a tad old for a usual winner of the race, secondly he hasn't jumped with fluency in any of his starts to date and has yet to be tested by the rivals he has faced in Ireland so is not battle hardened over obstacles. His jockey is inexperienced on the big occasion but knows the horse better than anyone so should be up to it?

It's argued that he hasn't jumped properly so far as he is hardly awake when dismissing his opposition and watching him it's not too difficult to believe. Of course he's odds on and likely to be a steaming fire ball of a bet for the Irish first up so don't expect a drift. Thanks though to betting w/o markets and Paddy Power's offer of returned win stake if the proverbial good thing bolts up we can play up the chances of the opposition. My view on the race is that unless something knocks him over he will be nigh on impossible to beat although he can't jump like he has so far and win a Cheltenham Supreme Novices so that will be down to him.......

The best of the rest seems wide open with Get Me Out Of Here the standard bearer for the home team based on his Totesport Trophy success and there was a lot to like about the attitude after a last fence error and a smart turn of foot. Nicky Henderson saddles Oscar Whisky, two time hurdles canter winner over trees and other garden ornaments and from Ireland we have Willie Mullins' Blackstairmountain who's had plenty of experience on the level and bumpers but just one win over hurdles so far. Rite of Passage is a hot pot for an alternative engagement at the meeting and will likely swerve this as will Peddlers Cross from the McCain yard and both would be live contenders if changing their plans last minute...

Phillip Hobbs has high hopes for Menorah who was given a shocker of a ride last time and may have left his best effort behind him although the win over Belvano at Kempton is up there with the best on offer so perhaps not one to write off for an e/w play. Some of the bigger priced horses include Dan Breen from the Pipe yard who has not done enough form wise with easy victories but must be respected and also Flat Out from the Mullins yard who hasn't done a lot wrong.

One I like at a big price is the other Henderson runner General Miller who seems to have been discounted for failing to beat Restless Harry at Cheltenham in January over 2m4f. That effort for me was an improvement on his smart win at Cheltenham in December when lowering the colours of the Nicholls trained Ghizao who has hacked up since and before that hadn't seen a horse within 5 lengths of his rear. Back at the 2m1f trip and with the stamina sapping hill to come into play the son of Karinga Bay can follow the footsteps of the previous winners of the December trial ( include Noland and Tidal Bay ) and make up to a very smart type.

He may not beat Dunguib but at 25/1 and perhaps the forgotton horse with track experience, age, form, ground and ability not in question he merits an e/w bet to get the meeting off to a flyer.

General Miller 1pt e/w - 25/1 Paddy Power NRNB and dunguib concession....