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onthenoseinfo
10 Mar 10 18:48
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Date Joined: 02 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 1,395 | Blogger: onthenoseinfo's blog
Supreme Novice Hurdle

When the roar goes up for the first race you know Santa's arrived with an adult version of Christmas day. All hopes, fears, dreams and (most ) ante-post vouchers still alive for at least a few more minutes......

Traditionally you are looking for an Irish trained 5 or 6 year old crack hurdler who's managed a win last time up and rated in the 130s bracket....it's also been a bit of a graveyard for highly touted Irish hot pots with often an emerald isle winner without the hype. Think of Sweet Wake and Cousin Vinny as recent examples and it pays to look at all the contenders from over the water whatever the price ( Ebaziyan !!!!! )

The English have had a few winners in the last ten years with Arcalis and Noland but prior to that you have to crank the memory bank and recall Hors La Loi III in 1999 so the Irish have held sway for sure. This year it's all about last years Champion Bumper winner Dunguib and the market suggests the Phillip Fenton beast is a Rolls Royce of a horse surrounded by Punto's and Fiesta's and it may well be right. We have yet to see the horse off the bridle in four hack canter victories over the novices at home and only to destroy his field did he seem to get the hurry up at Cheltenham last March completely eating the hill like a pac man game........new Istabracq perhaps but what are the negatives?

Firstly Dunguib is 7 which is a tad old for a usual winner of the race, secondly he hasn't jumped with fluency in any of his starts to date and has yet to be tested by the rivals he has faced in Ireland so is not battle hardened over obstacles. His jockey is inexperienced on the big occasion but knows the horse better than anyone so should be up to it?

It's argued that he hasn't jumped properly so far as he is hardly awake when dismissing his opposition and watching him it's not too difficult to believe. Of course he's odds on and likely to be a steaming fire ball of a bet for the Irish first up so don't expect a drift. Thanks though to betting w/o markets and Paddy Power's offer of returned win stake if the proverbial good thing bolts up we can play up the chances of the opposition. My view on the race is that unless something knocks him over he will be nigh on impossible to beat although he can't jump like he has so far and win a Cheltenham Supreme Novices so that will be down to him.......

The best of the rest seems wide open with Get Me Out Of Here the standard bearer for the home team based on his Totesport Trophy success and there was a lot to like about the attitude after a last fence error and a smart turn of foot. Nicky Henderson saddles Oscar Whisky, two time hurdles canter winner over trees and other garden ornaments and from Ireland we have Willie Mullins' Blackstairmountain who's had plenty of experience on the level and bumpers but just one win over hurdles so far. Rite of Passage is a hot pot for an alternative engagement at the meeting and will likely swerve this as will Peddlers Cross from the McCain yard and both would be live contenders if changing their plans last minute...

Phillip Hobbs has high hopes for Menorah who was given a shocker of a ride last time and may have left his best effort behind him although the win over Belvano at Kempton is up there with the best on offer so perhaps not one to write off for an e/w play. Some of the bigger priced horses include Dan Breen from the Pipe yard who has not done enough form wise with easy victories but must be respected and also Flat Out from the Mullins yard who hasn't done a lot wrong.

One I like at a big price is the other Henderson runner General Miller who seems to have been discounted for failing to beat Restless Harry at Cheltenham in January over 2m4f. That effort for me was an improvement on his smart win at Cheltenham in December when lowering the colours of the Nicholls trained Ghizao who has hacked up since and before that hadn't seen a horse within 5 lengths of his rear. Back at the 2m1f trip and with the stamina sapping hill to come into play the son of Karinga Bay can follow the footsteps of the previous winners of the December trial ( include Noland and Tidal Bay ) and make up to a very smart type.

He may not beat Dunguib but at 25/1 and perhaps the forgotton horse with track experience, age, form, ground and ability not in question he merits an e/w bet to get the meeting off to a flyer.

General Miller 1pt e/w - 25/1 Paddy Power NRNB and dunguib concession....
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Report mr phantom March 10, 2010 8:53 PM GMT
Good piece mate and i agree with your e/w selection. But firstly O'Connell has won at Cheltenham when pressure was on plus 2 grade ones in Ireland so no worries there. Jumping may not bin spectacular but not as bad as people would make you believe and when has he looked like falling or lost momentum? plus get me out of here made a howler of last in TGT and Menorah at 2'nd last at Ascot(agree shocking ride but not in same ball park as Dunguib) yet no one is mentioning that. Dunguib laughs at this lot for me and general miller great e/w shot esp with PP's.
Report TD_Gunner March 10, 2010 8:53 PM GMT
sad that a thread like this gets no replies, yet the chit chat dc ones do :| :(

good stuff nosey. i'm hoping that McCain has made a u-turn with peddlers cross to cover my Dunguib bet! :D
Report topshot March 10, 2010 9:03 PM GMT
great post much appreciated
Report mr phantom March 10, 2010 9:03 PM GMT
great point Gunner write up excellent and good points should be more responses
Report PFtrader March 10, 2010 9:05 PM GMT
Nice write up nosey.....pity about the conclusion
Report BJG March 10, 2010 9:06 PM GMT
Nosey B-)











Dunguib whoooooooosh though ;\
Report mr phantom March 10, 2010 9:10 PM GMT
BJG a judge of the highest order cant believe some of the ** bin typed about Dunguib elsewhere im having my biggest bet in yonks on it.
Report onthenoseinfo March 10, 2010 9:12 PM GMT
cheers chaps...o'connel was cool enough so far on the horse so not really knockng him but this is a proper test and may not be everyone's cup of tea for an odds on shot at chelters ....he has the horse though ;-)

PF what conclusion would you prefer?! :-)
Report mythical prince March 10, 2010 9:13 PM GMT
keep it simple and back dunguib. plenty of other races to find value long shots in.
Report PFtrader March 10, 2010 9:17 PM GMT
nosey

I just don't rate General Miller I'm afraid and don't see him being in the first three, but good luck to you
Report alfee March 10, 2010 9:18 PM GMT
im not sure its even going to be a test, and the poster said dunguib @ 7 yrs old is not idea in this,

thats wrong! , most other horses @ 7 go for the champion hurdle, which dunguib was also enter in,

but the people behind the horse know this race is in bag.


and evens is nigh on free money.
Report uncle jam March 10, 2010 9:19 PM GMT
not many other races where a bookie is offering your win stake back regardless though...

gunny - no responses 'cos no-one looks at antepost forum. after the last few days, i'm all for trying to keep it that way :-)

nosey - great analysis, as always, but i think oscar whisky's the one to go for as he could be anything and geraghty's sweet on him. however, there'll definitely be worse 25-1 shots next week and general miller will certainly have no problem getting up that hill. tinkler to ride? gl matey.
Report onthenoseinfo March 10, 2010 9:21 PM GMT
fair do's PF good luck to you too

Alfee fair point he would not be out of place in the champion of course and the bet is suggested with the concession of course...
Report uncle jam March 10, 2010 9:21 PM GMT
realised i sounded like a complete forum nazi there but the amount of dc's on the cheltenham forum is really beyond a joke.
Report onthenoseinfo March 10, 2010 9:22 PM GMT
yep tinkler will ride Jam....fingers crossed he gets a surge up the hill!
Report alfee March 10, 2010 9:31 PM GMT
point take onthenose,

tell me this someone, if backing other than dunguib with PP, say dunguib comes second in the race and you have backed the winner, what if their is a stewards and dunguib gets the race

would PP PAYOUT TWICE ?
Report CVByrne March 10, 2010 10:17 PM GMT
good write up nosey and good read too.
Report unclepuncle March 11, 2010 7:52 AM GMT
I've been touting General Miller as the value over on the Cheltenham threads.
Report sintonian March 11, 2010 8:00 AM GMT
Lots of General Miller fans here .. I was considering backing him the other week when he was 40/1.
Report jungleboogie March 11, 2010 8:01 AM GMT
mccoy said general miller was a bad jumper
Report Fallen Angel March 11, 2010 10:31 AM GMT
Great write up. I have backed Get me out of here with PP with the money back on Dunguib if the superstar runs them all over. I have Dunguib in a multiple with BB so will be hoping he wins and I just get my money back on the GMOOH.

I really hope Dunguib is the horse people think. Saw a very good article on racingpost.com analysising his jumping in the Royal Bond. Hopefully he can pick up better over hurdles on a good pace. Ground is looking more and more like a GS good in places. My view is it will suit him.
Report toderav March 11, 2010 12:52 PM GMT
have been topping up on OSCAR WHISKEY AP for a while now
Report Stake & Chips March 11, 2010 12:59 PM GMT
Henderson has a pretty strong team of novices this year, and if BG is on OW, then presumably he is the better of the pair?
Report onthenoseinfo March 11, 2010 1:30 PM GMT
Henderson didn't want to split them recently, gave a good bullitin on Miller's jumping and I prefered the course form and quality of the races so far....no doubt Barry had the choice though
Report woodworm March 11, 2010 7:10 PM GMT
Good write up but I cant help thinking BG knows which one is best. Oscar Whisky for me but fighting for the minor places only imo.
Dunguib Is a machine! :)
Report nibbledat March 11, 2010 7:17 PM GMT
excellent write up nosey ;)
flat out on the spaff for me :)
Report nibbledat March 11, 2010 7:26 PM GMT
is peddlers running in this?
Report TD_Gunner March 11, 2010 7:27 PM GMT
hopefully :D
Report nibbledat March 11, 2010 7:29 PM GMT
:)
Report TD_Gunner March 11, 2010 7:32 PM GMT
nibbledat 10 Mar 18:16

peddlers is sh1t


Have you changed your mind or looking to plaice lay ? :|
Report nibbledat March 11, 2010 7:34 PM GMT
if this runs it wins on spaff :)
Report onthenoseinfo April 9, 2010 2:12 PM BST
:-) oh well
Report Brooksielad April 9, 2010 2:16 PM BST
Ul :) General Miller looks one for the future possibly Novice chasing.
Report sintonian April 9, 2010 2:36 PM BST
did you hear owner on RUK after the race :^0 dead pleased with his wager
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