Lay The Arse Of Imperial Commander

Perp, hows the comms with Kev going? All good?

:)

christ knows, he offered me a bet , i accepted , heard no more. seeing as he stalks me and shows signs of mental fragility, I wont hold my breath for payment if I win.

I doubt I'm a backer at the price but I can't see any reason to blindly lay it. For me, off the top of my head, the horses who are worth taking on after winning at Cheltenham are Santuaire, Albertas Run, Copper Bleu and maybe Baby Run. Think Somersby will be overbet although the Nightingale will beat him regardless of fitness imo, good luck.

Ben,my point is that at this meeting you don't need a logical reason to oppose ANYTHING.That is just in my experience of the last few years. I might be exagerating owing to a couple of upset results where I laid a 10/1 shot in the face of an odds on fav, I don't know, but I will be laying this one.

Perp, LOL

:)

Good luck, if you have a system you have to follow it all the way through or it won't work, don't say you weren't warned though ;)

The opposition looks weak. What a friend couldn't beat Denman rec loads of weight. The grade 1in Ireland hasn't really worked out. I know Joncol beat Cooldine but where did Cooldine end up in the GC? Nacarat is not top class. IC will have to seriously under perform to lose here. It's one of those prices you'll either look very shrewd or have the I told you so gang on your back.

Ben - Think Baby Run definately a lay from this stable, was given a brutal race from the front. But need to see final field before dismissing Copper and Sanctuaire, both finished their races really well and not had hard time this season.

even money on here now looks tempting

Baby run had a really tough race. I wouldn't agree that Copper Bleu did though, travelled really strongly out the back, was not ridden particularly hard to get into contention and then started looking around and idling when it hit the front. I don't think it was slowing because of a hard race personally.

according to Nicholls column Sanctuaire in very good nick since Cheltenham

not sure under what logic you'd lay imperial commander with any certainty against this field

Also Copper ran well enough to go down by a neck at Aintree last year after a hard race in the supreme (4th) to suggest he can cope with the 2 races close together IMO. As already mentioned he has been lightly raced this year with the intention of doing what it did at Chelts and should be able to cope with another run IMO.

It may be the odds that put me off backing it at Aintree if it runs in the handicap. I'd love to see them put it away now and go for a big 3 mile handicap next season. I think it will appreciate 3 miles and would still be on a decent mark and open to further improvement.

The logic in laying Imperial Commander is the notion that he goes well fresh, potentially had a tough GC and that the Nicholls hoss has been aimed at this, whereas IC hasn't

However he is much the best of these and the current quotes of 5/6 do look particularly generous

Will do the dame as i did at Chelt, rather than lay him i will do a combo around the dangers as i dont think he will be the type to be a close up second.

He will either win by miles or underperform the same way imo

Any race at Aintree containing a Cheltenham festival runner needs treating with extreme caution imo.

I rarely have a bet at the meeting other than in the National. That race's unique conditions makes it somewhat easier to make a judgement on any Cheltenham runners who turn up for it . . .


Mon Mome has developed a mind of his own and is worth opposing.
Tricky Trickster seems much over-rated.
Joe Lively looks to have lost his appetite after many hard races
Don't Push It - a rare poor run back over hurdles last time and I'll be having a small bet on him
Niche Market - worth a small bet on his jumping/stamina alone
My Will - thoroughly exposed now and prone to the odd error
Character Building - backed him last year when he missed the race through injury; will doubtless wear the tongue tie that made so much difference when he sauntered in at the 09 Festival - he'll be on my short list
The Package - improving, jumps, likely to stay, only 10.7, must have a chance but, the value among the Festival runners, imo, must be Comply or Die. Bar Mon Mome's surprise return to form, last year, he'd be trying to do a Red Rum here with just 11.5. The fact alone that Timmy has yet to decide between him and the package makes COD a good bet at 32 around twice the price of the younger horse.

Always after ultimate value, I still think, as mentioned on other threads, that lies with Eric's Charm although I was interested to read that HoJo fancies Royal Rosa so strongly (6th in Scottish GN last year) that he intends to take out Abbeybraney to ensure RR gets in. The horse finished 3rd in the Becher this season when 9lbs wrong and under, arguably, a less than perfect ride.

Enigmatic (both horse and trainer) but at 150/1 probably worth a small bet.

Steeplechasing 06 Apr 23:37
Any race at Aintree containing a Cheltenham festival runner needs treating with extreme caution imo.

Very much in agreement with you SC.

It is a valid point but 19 of the last 26 winners of the TSB ran in the Gold Cup - usually running a bad race - seems odd to me as this race would seem to suit those who don't stay well enough for the GC and usually they have given their all at Cheltenham

Not many GC winners have gone on to contest this lately and if Kauto Star had beaten Denman hands down he would be 1/2

I get the feeling that IC might be an anti-hype horse and people are looking for reasons to oppose him - I thought 4/6 would be best price in which case I would have watched and cheered him on but I have had a decent bet at 5/6 and without doubt will go in again if anyone goes evs

To clarify - usually running a bad race - I meant in the GC

the demps, you will get evens.

I hope you are right SP but as it stands happy with my 5/6

You have Denman last year and Kauto the year before beaten at odds on. But Exotic hacked up the year before when racing quite inferior horses. It's quite possible IC will do the same. But then again the flat track, hard race at Chelts, short time between races all could be reasons to oppose.

I'm really stumped with this. Might go WAF and IC WAF forecast. Dunno, stumped. Bit of pondering to do.

I think Kauto would have won in 08 bar the poor tactics, and ploughing into the second last. So you can then say Denman was the exception, which is fair since he is only ever trained to the minute for 2 races a season.

I'm leaning towards backing IC at close to evens being a good bet.

Kauto had an absolute humdinger of a Gold Cup and mad a huge mistake 2 out iirc, and Our Vic had a relatively easy Ryanair victory

Denman had his problems last season, and he clearly wasn't the same horse then

Imperial Commander won his Gold Cup well, and imo didn't have that hard a race.


The more I look at this the more I think it's a penalty kick.

Although What A Friend has been aimed at this since the Lexus, couldn't beat Denman receiving 22lbs in the Henessey, and beat Money Trix half a length in the Lexus

Nacarat ran well enough in the KG with Imperial behind, but Kempton would appear not to be to Imperial Commander's liking, and very much Nacarat's cup of tea. I'd fancy IC to reverse that form here

I see no reason why Carruthers and Calgary Bay should reverse the form.

I personally don't think you can win a Gold Cup without having a hard race no matter how easy it looks. In fact, I'm not sure you can win any race at the Cheltenham Festival without putting in a huge effort.
Big Bucks victory at Newbury the day of the Hennessy was one of the easiest I've ever seen in a top class race, yet Nicholls said afterwards he blew more than Denman after his victory off top weight later on that day.
Of course Imperial Commander should win but horses are not machines and things that should happen don't always occur.

Bar Exotic Dancer, the last 11 horses in the Gold Cup to post a RPR of 150+ were all beaten ;) IMO Nacarat total and complete NAP.

Pocket talk is amazing.

I remember going to Aintree the year Dawn Run had won the gold cup so memorably....this was a 3 horse race..D Run long odds on...I backed wayward lad....the 40/1 outsider was beau ranger....Dawn Run fell and W lad having looked all over the winner was beaten into second still think Bradley giving it a pull 3 out when cruising cost momentum)....the G cup can take a lot out of a horse.

I think evens is a fair enough price when taking into account the doubts. Let's face it if this race was after a 3 month break he would be 2/5 to win.

lmao ^thicket!

What you mean?

Comparing this price being a gift based on what it'd be when conditions suit - thicket!

Ok, fair price rather than gift.

Yeah I say it's fair because you know the doubts before placing the bet. You're basically taking odds on whether you think IC will run to form or not. On official ratings he can run 15lb below form and still win. Evens is very fair taking this into the equation.

most people (except the likes of me) were saying Denman was a steering job in this last year. Time and again we see horses run badly at Aintree following their exertions in the GC.
I backed IC to win the GC but would not touch him in this. I am concerned for the horse's welfare more than anything. I think he should be back at the stable resting up now. Should not be being asked to race again.
The race tomorrow is competitive, it's never a penalty kick, and as others say IC is a horse who runs his best fresh. I think running him again at Aintree is a poor decision.

Would you back him at 4/1?

he is a monster. really is a steal at evens.

All donations gratefully received AR.
NB It was my nap lto.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has no fears about the track as his Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander bids to follow up in the totesport Bowl at Aintree on Thursday.

The nine-year-old was a brilliant winner of the blue riband event at last month's Festival, his sixth course victory from a total of seven wins under Rules.

Some would argue he is less effective at other tracks but Twiston-Davies points to this season's Betfair Chase at Haydock, where he was beaten just a nose by Kauto Star, as evidence to the contrary.

Joining Imperial Commander on the opening day of the Grand National meeting will be stablemates and fellow Festival winners Pigeon Island, who lines up in the Red Rum Handicap Chase, and Baby Run, who tackles the giant fences in the Fox Hunters' Chase.

"We're very much looking forward to it. We finished one Festival off with three winners on the final day and they all run on the first day of the next Festival, so it will be interesting," said Twiston-Davies.

"Imperial Commander is in very good form. The owners did take a bit of persuading to let him run again but we're ready to go and we'll see what happens.

"People will say he does most of his winning at Cheltenham but that doesn't worry me at all.

"There wasn't much wrong with his run at Haydock earlier in the season and Haydock is quite similar to Aintree in many ways.

"The only reason he's done most of his winning at Cheltenham is because that's where he runs most, and it's not a bad place to be winning."

Having been a big IC fan - backing him in a v impressive bumper win at Cheltenham...and the 2m 5f wins....his size and way of running is suited to Cheltenham and not Liverpool imo..on top of this the race is a graveyard or G cup winners..

I've convinced myself to lump back him. As I've said on another thread last time he ran at Aintree over hurdles he ran up to form as to how good he was back then. I've got no worries about the track. The running well fresh does concern me but he did win 2 races back to back about 3 weeks apart and he did place both at the festival and at Aintree in 2007 albeit with 4 weeks apart.

Laying the ar** of him makes sense. I didn't know yoiu could bet on body parts, but I reckon his nose will be the first bit over the line.

enjbenjy - agree with everything you said - only worry is the closeness of race to the festival and at 5/6 and EVS I was happy to take the risk

IC is a big rangy type, not unlike Denman, and Aintree is a very tight track which might not play to his strengths. It will be a race to watch, for me, and I hope he wins for Bobby Dazzler.

Wants to be fresh - won't be

Hard Gold Cup - you do not put in a performance like that without it taking something out of you

Track 1 - very much doubt flat and sharp Aintree will suit him given he's quite a top heavy horse

Track 2 - IC has won 7 races under rules. 6 have been at Cheltenham. All his chase wins have been at HQ.

Afterthought - he was aimed at the Gold Cup and the Gold Cup alone, just as Kauto Star was 2 years ago before turning up here after a hard race and getting beaten.

Inconsistency - only once in his entire life has he won 2 races back to back. When he wins, he is stuffed next time out.

Ground - while he handles good to soft, he isn't best on it imo and may get outpaced when tiring on better going.

Nacarat - aimed at the race, course form when didn't have the pace in the Melling last year, very good on flat and sharp tracks (can't rule out WAF either though)

^^^^^^^^

8 reasons why this quality performer will be beaten

Wasn't Nacarat aimed at the Racing Post chase and had a very hard race there ?.

I agree about IC and have instead backed WAF - mostly due to the fact that Nacarat apart i can't fancy any of the others and Nacarat will surely get taken on for the lead (or pressed for it by Carruthers) and will also not get proper fast ground which suits him best (and he had a hard race in the RP chase).

All in all WAF has to be the bet at the prices.

WAF/Nacarat rfc for me, Nacarat goes in most ground for me and was impressive on very soft ground at Donny a year ago

As i said before i cant see Imperial finishing second, he either wins or runs well below form

good shout zz - may take green on win market and lay for a place now

td, he was aimed at the rp, but they still had this in mind for him, knowing he wouldnt be running in any GC's................plus the rp chase leaves more time to get ready for this than GC does, about 3 weeks I think, which is a big deal imo

johnnyrant 07 Apr 10:27
most people (except the likes of me) were saying Denman was a steering job in this last year.

I was all out to oppose Denman last year and went in heavy on Exotic e/w. Sad that the horse was dying as he battled to second.

I think IC at close to evens has to be a good bet and after considering it I'll be backing him

He won the Ryanair on good to soft.

Imperial Commander a shocking price.

IC now 11/10 with korals

enjbenjy 07 Apr 18:55
He won the Ryanair on good to soft.

And he won a GC on good

So?


Dessie won a GC on heavy; does that mean he was best on heavy?

Imo, given the heavy-topped individual he is, IC would be best on softer ground.

Its hard for some to accept this, but Imperial Commander has improved and may not be that far short of Kauto's best Gold Cup form. He beat Denman fair and square and there is no guarentee that Kauto would have won had be remembered how to jump - after all Kauto was a bit lucky to beat him at Haydock.
anyway the Gold Cup rather kicked all that "Denman/Kauto are better than Arkle ever was" bilge into touch. I am certain Imperial Commander would not have got Arkle off the bit, and Arkle, although he made a horrid mistake in an early Hennessy and one mistake in 3 Gold Cups, hardly ever made the sorts of complete horlicks of jumping that both Denman and Kauto seem to do with amazing frequency. Not only was Arkle way more talented, he was also a far better jumper.
Of course there will be some who mow claim that Imperial Commander is better than Arkle was too, but we know what that claim would amount to don't we.

I am one of IC's biggest fans but think this is a mistake to run him. Surely he should have a well deserved rest then take the route next season of Haydock - Lexus - Gold Cup. This horse is all about going fresh. Think the bookies have priced him this way knowing the general public will be all over him. I have him a 5-2 chance in my tissue. I just hope he comes home safe and sound think this is a pointless task.

He puts his best performance of his career up on good but you think he's better on soft?

O mOrOn
I'm not saying he will win for certain as the negatives are well documented but he isn't a 5/2 shot

its Maths silly, if you backed him at anywhere between 8/1 and 20/1 for the gold cup why would you have more than your stake at even money on a suspected rest horse??

he may win, but it aint the call

^agreed cant have a bet in the race myself due to zilzal's point.

cant see him beating what a friend imo.

if I was a backer - which I'm not - I'd definitely be worried after reading the owner's thoughts on the other thread

the Demps we will see if I am a Moron when he drifts out to 7/4 on the course as the money comes for WAF and Nacarat. For the record I consider myself one of IC biggest fans. Some people just dont understand the depth of horse racing. Its not all about ratings Demps.

enjbenjy - he has improved enormously in the last 18 months

If he were to have raced on softer, he'd have put in better performances. Not sure why that's so difficult to understand.

Happy with my 1.85 lay.

Can't wait until the race is over to get rid of this beastial thread.

lmao

IC, when fresh, is one of the best staying chasers we've seen in years. His record over fences after break of seven weeks or less reads 146P5 while he is 11121 after a longer period off than seven weeks.

How sensational is Kauto Star, when not at his best, not liking the ground, not 100% fit, not at his favourite track, to inflict the only defeat on a fresh Imperial Commander? Jesus Christ what a horse.

Would :x to see Nacarat take this

6/4 very tempting now, think you laid the value though cok.

me too

can't eat value though

:-(

is that Bobby??

gotta be - he quoted 'field in ireland'

I think so

top man - good luck

this is one time i wouldnt mid old whiskey nose fergie having a result :-)

That was Bobby

thought so

ignores me on here without any explanation, never had cross words with him and have praised his horse

anyway............come on you grey beauty

Well done, was beat before unseating

Was already beaten, first horse beat in fact

Was one of the worst 1.85 shots I'd ever seen

Won plenty and delighted,

:D

but I'd give half my profits back to have Nacarat win that - I've really taken to that horse

good call by the op

diabolical decision to run him today - horse deserved better treatment than that. Nicholls and Twiston-Davies both negligent inn this respect imo

Probably prefer Carruthers to have won tbh

johnnyrant 08 Apr 15:19
diabolical decision to run him today - horse deserved better treatment than that




You could not be more correct. Shambolic decision.

Nice one Layers.

Such a bad performance it was beyond belief. Laughable comment from Claire Boarding "we will never know if he had won or not", lets be honest he was beat halfway round. Poor call from the trainer, great penalty kick that one he hit the corner flag

Ruby:

'IC was beaten after a mile'

Think we can say now that Nacarat doesnt quite get beyond three miles and he appears to jump better going the other way, he seemed to get in close in the same way he did in the Melling last year.

Yep :-(

Amazed Baby Run is so solid, you'd think the same principle applies but obviously not...

Not really same principle but still beat. Charlton, you must be having a good day :)
All my ones to take on have been beaten so far, shame I can't find the right alternative!

I know Bobbydazzler posts on here and gets plenty of backslapping when things go well but it's absolutely amazing how the connections allowed the horse to run .

The world and his wife were saying he would get beat after such a short space between his races., so why potentially risk his campaign next year by running him when he was never going to be at his best. Are they really that desperate for the prize money?

Brennan should have pulled him up long before he finally fell off. The only good thing is that Brennan fell off before the horse managed to injure/kill himself.

Not really Paddy's fault imo - don't think he hit him with the stick, was probably aiming to nurse him around for third and he may have got it too bar the fall/unseat

Fault lies squarely with (a) the trainer and (b) the owners, including bobby dazzler, who has twice now in one season allowed NTD to go against his wishes and run IC in a race he should never have been running in

The owners pay the bills and ultimately it comes down to them to have the balls and overrule their trainer when they think he is wrong. The owners and Bobby have been lacking in this department.

Fair enough if you think 'ok i disagree but i'll go with my trainer this time' - but when your trainer is wrong why would you then trust him again less that 4 months later when you are once more sure the opposite is better for your horse?

Short space time certainly didn't stop Big Bucks winning again did it? IC is overrated and today just proved it.

As far as i can tell he (BD) owns a 6th share in the horse.

Therefor he doesn't really have much say should the other five (or even four) members decide they want him to run.

I'd imagine BD is feeling terrible right now and i doubt he's too happy with the other syndicate members who wanted to run (or indeed the trainer).But other than dissolving the partnership what can he do ?.

Doubt the same mistake will be made again.

asterisk1 08 Apr 16:11
Short space time certainly didn't stop Big Bucks winning again did it? IC is overrated and today just proved it.

What a numbskull :(

All horses are not the same and it was common knowledge that IC needs space between his races.

Problem is Top Div, the same mistake was made again

2 mistakes within 4 months of each other

Unclepunter - no need to start calling names but then I guess low posting standards come through when some prefer to ignore what was a factual statement.

^ Go away little boy

WD Kauto

asterisk1 08 Apr 16:11
Short space time certainly didn't stop Big Bucks winning again did it? IC is overrated and today just proved it.





Oh dear.

great shout kauto.

oh great...look who has money to back Anderson Silva this weekend FFS

:D

Good shout cok, You'd think I'd have learnt my lesson with Kauto 2 years ago and dodging Denman last year. But I didn't rate WAF so felt a semi decent performance for IC would win it. Was thinking Exotic in 07.

Anyway, I hope Nicholls gets Kauto fully fit for Haydock so we can see these two go head to head. Lets hope neither blunder away their chances and we get another battle finish like last year.

Thanks all :-)

You know it ELG :D