Nick Mordin's Grand National System

Waterwheel, the requirement alone tells you how nutty the man is. Well-intentioned and confident but a real batty professor.

Look for a horse that will stay the trip and is a good jumper. That will knock out about 95% of the field.

Good luck

apparently get me out of here is a real 3 mile chasing prospect and sizing europe is too big for kempton. rofl.

The main problem that I had with last years race was the punative handicap marks that Phil Smith gave to horses that had shown the slightest glimpse of form over the National Course, and that included fallers who had shown up for a long way in previous runnings. I couldn't fathom the race last year and it was the first time in my life that I never had a bet in the race.
I haven't had a look yet, but this year I might concentrate on horses that have never ran over the national course.
I am a Nick Mordin fan by the way

and Big Buck's is far from unbeatable ;)




note: the exact same line was used for Zenyatta in last year's Breeders Cup Ladies Classic

this year I might concentrate on horses that have never ran over the national course.


Interesting you say that because Paul Nicholls has said on a number of occasions that he thinks a horse will run well over the fences on their first go but not so good next time. Not convinced myself but guess they could potentially take more chances over the fences if they've seen them before.

ben10,
There was a rich source of evidence from that reasoning with the Irish Grand National runners that went on to win at Aintree at the first attempt.

Thanks Kevo, I've been thinking about doing my own proper trends for the race but I wonder if it's worth keeping my focus to 'normal' races, if you know what I mean.

Bobbyjo - Irish National winner 1st time over GN
Papillon - Irish National regular1st time over GN
Red Marauder - fell previous year's GN
Bindaree - 4th previous year's Topham
Monty's Pass - 2nd previous year's Topham
Amberleigh House - GN regular, Becher regular
Hedgehunter - fell prevous year's GN
Numbersixvalverde - Irish National winner 1st time over GN
Silver Birch - fell prevous year's GN, won Becher
Comply Or Die - GN virgin
Mon Mome - 10th previous year's GN

COD the only won that hadn't attempted GN fences or Irish National the previous Spring & he was entered for GN previous year but was injured

Seems this race is won by connections with a long-term plan - worth plotting for £0.5m I guess

Excellent stuff 90th, certainly well worth looking at that. There are quite a few 'trends' races on the calendar that the winner just happens to be in the right place at the right time but the GN is different, you definitely need a horse who is having this as a long term target (possibly even from chase debut) which makes it a little harder.

Certain requirements still seem to apply for this race and obviously stamina over 3m plus, unblemished jumping record, and most important for me, weight and a decent speed figure over a staying trip with a light campaign going into the race.

Welsh National is a key race here imo. 98 Earth Summit won. 02 Bindaree 8l 3rd. 07 Silver Birch won. 09 Mon Mome 4l second.

lordnoise,
Mon Mome ran abysmally in the 09 Welsh National and I backed him. He blundered his way over the first few fences and was never competetive after. He did complete the course however and stayed on very late out of the places.
I backed him again in one of his other races where he produced another poor display of jumping but stayed on.
It was very frustrating for me to see him winning the National last year, because despite his poor form he still fitted the profile of stammina and the ability to complete over marathon events.

Kevo - poor form ?!? He'd just posted the best RPR of his life at Cheltenham that November showing that he was an improving horse. I take your point about his run in the WN that year but he had finished a 4l 2nd previously. Remember class is permanent ( or very nearly LOL ! ).

Yes lordnoise, but I didn't keep the faith and take the 100/1, did you?

Aftertiming modesty doesnt allow me to answer that question.

Feck it - I was matched at 300 on here !

I suppose the lesson learned is that, if there are very few horses that meet your own requirements to win the race. Despite their current form dutch those few horses to win.

Yes - have a main stable that fits the most important trends and Dutch them. Save your stake on the ones that nearly fit. Never let one of the lesser trends (not run within 40 odd days for instance) put you off. Above all understand why trends exist and dont be afraid to go against them if you believe your horse has a logical excuse for not having met them. I've won enough money (in my own punting terms) to look forward to this particular race more than any other in the calendar.

Well done on that match lordnoise, my own recollection of the race was about 15 horses stilll in contention and still on the bridle with 2 to jump, I can't remember another national when so many horses still had a chance 2 out.
I hope Phil Smith doesn't reduce the race to a stick a pin judgement this year again.

The main problem for me with Mon Mome was that the stable jock had passed him over and he was still availabe at 300 with 10 days to go. I honestly thought Venetia intended to pull him out atb the 5 day stage but at the odds it was easy to have a few quid on him just in case.

I'm off to bed now, good luck.

'Interesting you say that because Paul Nicholls has said on a number of occasions that he thinks a horse will run well over the fences on their first go but not so good next time'



Off the top of my head, i can think of a dozen horses straight away that contradict this...Nicholls probably basing view on about 3 of his own horses FFS

I felt that the connections had plotted to win this years national and had done an excellent job in getting him a good mark, only for the trainer to complain that the horse was too harshly handicapped, yet they did not withdraw the horse at the first acceptance stage.
Since most people go into owning racehorses to win races and horses are bred for that very same reason, there are many accidents along the way and some are fatal, laying the blame at a racecourse or particular handicapper is plain stupid, but the trainer has a checquered carreer in Britain, Cahervillahow, springs to mind and instead of gaining revenge by taking the money back to Ireland,
rather than firing insults.
He did the business when he won the gold cup and should have taken a pop at the national as a parting shot for which was probably his best 'chaser.

Interesting stuff - for what it's worth, I think Mon Mome is only a couple of races away from a Timeform squiggle.

Whatever way you look at trends or any other approach there is one simple starting point, more important than jumping, class, weight, recent form and everything else put together. Will it stay?

That question alone often knocks out a very large percentage of the field.

what are your fancies steeple

my antepost book includes

Black Appalachi
Ed Character
Silver birch

Hello The Dragon,

I haven't had a proper look yet but Eric's Charm strikes me as very good value at 75 on here.

is he not a bit too old 12 i think

jenny pitmans royal athlete was 12 and was ginger mccains last national winner 12

wrong way around for erics

The Dragon, here's a paste from my post on another thread (succinct analysis of grand national - well worth a look)

Eric's Charm interests me too. He will almost certainly get a run (10.9), will be a stone well in (now rated 149), he will very probably stay the trip, and, even at the age of 12, he is improving (currently on highest rating of his career).

I think it a moot point about him being best in small fields. He has plenty of strong form in fields of between 16 and 18, including victories and placings.

The ground shouldn't trouble him unless it is at either extreme. My main concern would be his jumping; he tends to throw in a bad one a bit too frequently to bet him with great confidence. Having said that, he has just two falls (one in the Topham which the trainer blamed on "being taken off his feet" by the pace) and one unseat to his name in a long career and has made only one mistake in his new found lease of life this season - the first time since 2003 he's managed to win two in a row.

Who knows why some horses improve at such a late age? It's rare but it happens. I recall one called Mac Vidi who racked up a six-timer as a 14-year-old and finished 2nd in the 1980 Gold Cup at the age of 15.

WOSO, trainer not bothered by left-handed - said so after Newbury win last time

Didn't he win at Newbury last time or am I thinking of the wrong horse. Probably needs McCoy on board to be at his best.

Won his last two races one with and one without AP onboard :-

06Mar10 Nby 27GS 11-10 A P McCoy
05Dec09 San 30Sft 11-1 Leighton Aspell

Would need a bit of give in the ground so if the forecast rain for the next couple of weeks does materialise could be a player at a big price

Fair point, just have a feeling McCoy gets that little bit extra out of him, have to give him a chance considering he's proven he can win off his mark. Doubt Nick will be including him in his trends?
Might be wrong because I don't follow him but I think Mordin's latest system is points based so you never actually rule anything wholly out, just find the highest scorer.

Erics Charm fits the regular National trends very nicely as well and I think he is overpriced too. Probably asking a bit much of him in all honesty but hes shown hes as good as ever this season and with a little bit of cut in the ground you could see him going well for a long way.

thanks steeple

what is mccoy on do we know yet?

Mc coy-I keep telling everyone but nobody listens-he's on Arbor Supreme

can you back it up please? ^

ta

Waterwheel - in case no one answered the question about the courses with 8.5% fallers it's Aintree, Ayr, Donny, Kempton, Lingfield, Wetherby, Wincanton and all the Irish courses

Is this the same Nick Mordin who wrote a huge article in the Weekender on why Tiday Bay was a 4/7 shot for the World Hurdle and Big Bucks was the lay of all time.

He can keep systems like that to himself

Plat-sorry I cant reveal my sources

makes sense tbh but i want it in print before i believe it. hope ur right ;)

I hope Phil Smith doesn't reduce the race to a stick a pin judgement this year again.

No offence but isn't it a handicap?

Thanks very much, dogbolter.

Mon Momes got a chance this year then.

Anyone think Snowy Morning is a decent e/w shot? Has a nice weight this year and been running well.

Waterwheel do you have the details of Mordin's GN system?
Like him or hate him no-one can deny he's not different, quirky but interesting, form your own opinion on what he tells you, but use the information selectively to support all the other reasons why you back a horse.
On the basis of a horse being laid out all season for one big race try State Of Play.

or black Apalachi.

good shout by Mordin in fairness on the dubai race.

Runner up GLORIA DE CAMPEO (40) is a useful international campaigner that seems to produce his best whether the surface is turf, dirt or synthetic and regardless of the distance. He clearly has a very decent chance in the Dubai World Cup, so I'm surprised the bookies have him marked up as big as 25-1 for that race. That price looks an each-way steal at this stage.

fair shout there

dont know why Mordin is dissed so much,perhaps they should do the research!!!!!,nobody is right all the time!!!

Chaz, the 13 requirements he listed in the weekender around this time last year as as follows.

1) Award 5 points to entries who have raced off a handicap mark of at least 137 that season (including in this race)
2) Five points if they had previously reached the front 3 in a chase with at least 13 runners.
3) Five points if they had won over at least 3 miles.
4) Another five points if they have won over 3m3f+ or reached the first three in one of the major nationals (Aintree, Scottish, Irish, Welsh & Midlands)
5) Five points if they did not race as a novice chaser in the previous season.
6) Five points if they had completed the course in a field of 18 or more on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the past decade.
7) Five points if they are set to carry less than 11st2lb
8) Five points if they ran over hurdles this season.
9) Five points if they've won no more than once in their last 6 starts.
10) Five points if they were not bred in France.
11) Five points if they've run a n RPR rating higher than 145.
12) Five points if they haven't worn blinkers or a visor this season.
13) Five points if they've had 14 or fewer starts over fences.

Now counting Mon Mome, 11 of the last 12 winners had 50 points or more and 9 of 12 had 55 points or more.

I agree it shouldn't be taken too literally, but it clearly does work at narrowing down the field and I wanted no more than to check how my main fancies fared on it.

arbor weighs in with 60pts. he has had 16 chase starts. with a 20% strike rate and a 60%+ place rate

State of Play pretty much ticks all boxes - only let down on point 4 by not having won over 3m3 (won Henessey 3m2.5 under 11-4) and not having been in first 3 in a national (4th last year in GN)

All he does is jump and stay and he looks a solid option to me

and the lack of a hurdles run sorry

Mordin last year fyi....

It is true that his 'system' does usually shortlist the winner to some degree - but the 'shortlist' isn't that short usually....

Last year three horses - Chelsea Harbour, Hear The Echo, Himalayan Trail got 60 points.

Four horses got 55 points - Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Snowy Morning and Silver Birch.

And eight horses got 50 points - Mon Mome, Fleet Street, Rambling Minister, Idle Talk, Cornish Sett, Butlers Cabin, State of Play and Southern Vic.

The combined odds of the 60 pointers were about 9.37/1, down to 55 points was 4.9/1 and down to 50 points was 1.08/1.

He usually says just perm the top rated, so it's misleading to say his system highlighted the winner last year.

Also he changes his system a little bit every year - probably because the recent winners have made the shortlist but not the final selection list. He used to eliminate horses not meeting his rules then 2yrs ago he changed it to adding up positive points not ruling out horses.

For example with French breds 1st, 3rd and 5th last year it wouldn't surprise me if that one is dropped this year.

I find it an interesting guide but I've never managed to back the winner on the back of it (and nor has Mordin as far as I can remember)

Thanks Waterwheel.

Interesting he still stuck with the blinker/visor thing last year after Complys win in 08.

I like Mordin and obviously a few recent winners qualify but awarding points for running over hurdles is ridiculous imo.

Why?

Running a horse over hurdles suggests:

1. Connections think their horse has a mark worth protecting
2. Indicates that connections are preparing a hourse throughout the season with one target in mind.

Worthy of some acknowledgment imo.

Fair enough, some consideration.

4) Another five points if they have won over 3m3f+ or reached the first three in one of the major nationals (Aintree, Scottish, Irish, Welsh & Midlands)
8) Five points if they ran over hurdles this season.


Which would you pay most attention to?

Fair point. Perhaps there should be different weightings applied.

i would give them 50pts if they done 4 the season after 8.

or even 8 after 4 :p

you get my point ;)

Anyone done the field yet? What comes out best?

Had a quick go:
55 Arbor Supreme
50 Backstage
50 The Package
50 State Of Play
50 My Will
45 Dont Push It
45 Mon Mone
45 Ballyholland
45 Big Fella Thanks

Got ap bet on Backstage and will probably back State Of Play and perhaps the other 2 top rated. Good Luck!

Every year htere is a thread reserrected that is a good system fo r finding National winners..how can we find it again?

This is it guys!!!!

I copied these stats from a thread that was posted on here prior to last years' National so take no credit for them if they are of interest to anyone... makes interesting reading though!

'Apologies if someone has already done one of these threads - I couldn't see one. All trends are for last 10 years unless otherwise stated:

Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)

Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.

Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)

Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings 3rd
Silver Birch 1st
Mckelvey 2nd
Sonevafushi

Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!'

OK...Ive looked through it, though Im tired tonight and it seems as if the only qualifiers (Ive gone down the hcp to number 63.

Arbor Supreme
Air Force One
Dooneys Gate

Of these only Arbor Supreme seems to have a good chance..so thats it guys..Ive done all the hard work for everyone this year!! Thank me on the day

smartie

dooneys and afo are nr's fwiw

thanks..well thats settled then! Arbor it is!

As much as I applaud Nick for his general approach it would have been nice if his system had actually picked the winner recently.

this isnt N Mordins system (I think)

No - yours is the Silver Birch system but not the Comply Or Die or Mon Mome one.

IM not sure if it selected Mon Mome but it did Comply or Die the year that won..check it

Actually Mon Mome would have qulified as well! OMG

Sadly finished out of the frame in 08.

There was one similar to yours that picked it though.

The trends highlighed above were mine, from the year Silver Birch won.

I have also tweaked my trends slightly this year (for example, I have said must have 10 chase career runs), and no single horse fits ALL my trends.

My shortlist comprises:
Arbor Supreme (only 3 runs this season - I dont count the run in May last year as this season)
Eric's Charm
Ellerslie George
Knowhere.

I have only had very smal stakes on the last 3 and had a reasonable chunky bet on AS.

Theres an interesting logical tweak to make that would have included Mon Mome last year. The clue to it is in Amberleighs having been bought down by another horse in one of his previous Nationals.
The rule about previous Nationals should read - Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in previous Nationals unless brought down or hampered.
Mon Mome had been badly hampered at Bechers second time around in 08 and given his convincing win last year its not inconceivable that he would have placed otherwise.

Backfitting gone MAYD maybe - but at least theres some sort of logic behind it.

Noise - it is perfectly reasonable to excuse a "B", and arguably a "U" or an "F" as well. My stat only eliminated horses that had finished outside the front 4 or been pulled up.

The difficulty with your hampered stat is that it is extremely subjective - I doubt many horses have completed the race without being hampered to some degree at some point - where do you draw the line?

The GN must be one of the most closely watched races of the season and I'd be happy to trust that the experienced race readers not to miss or exaggerate an incident. BTW what the reasoning behind your tweaks ? Your system doesnt seem to be very broken - especially if you add in my cheeky contribution.

I put in the one about experience after a conversation with a friend. There is logic to it and it is consistently right.

I have also tweaked the weight one to go with someone else's suggestion of "not more than 12lb more than bottom weight". With so many horses set to carry over 11-0 and the recent wins of HH and Mon Mome I am not comfortable with having a cut off at 11-0.

The 12lb ones mine (Papillon carried 12lbs over bottom weight - the highest I can find going back to the 80's) which is why I'm so keen to find out what bottom weight will be this year. My other hobby horse this year is whether or not we should make allowances (in the number of races run and days since a run rules) for the terrible Winter on both sides of the water. Another forumite pointed out that that gives an extra advantage to those that have been able to keep to plan. My take would be that the availability of AW gallops means that trainers can ready them at home more easily than in the past. There are a lot of good horses that have only had a few runs this year and this may be the stat that comes unstuck in 2010.

I said last year and I will say it again - you cannot ignore weight in the National. Every pound over 11st is like carrying another 3lb. I've not settled on my final selections but will probably end up with one of those in the 10st8lb - 11st 0lb region.

wayward...i would generally agree....but i think 4 of the 1st five home last yr were 11st+....and that has to be a worry now for all us trend followers.

The recent compressed handicaps mean that a lot of people expect the 11st rule to be broken more regularly in the future and I understand their thinking. There is another modern change that needs to be factored in though - the ground. If you look back to the 60s,70s and 80s and at the few who carried over 11st - the ground was good or good to firm in most cases. Older punters will remember ground that you could have landed a Jumbo on happening regularly. That isnt going to be allowed to happen anymore. Just like Cheltenham the ground will be watered to produce ground on the soft side of good for horse welfare reasons. Not conducive to weight carrying performances imo.
This year it looks like the Good Lord will provide something like good to soft (at least) naturally.

abor supteme,
character building
Snowt morning
Black apalachi are his 4 60 point scorers i thinh

he also mentions chelsea harbourat 100-1

and Silver birch

in the weekender but only had a quick read in sainsburys so maybe a liitle in accurate but that is the gist of it

Offshore A/c not Black Appalachi. Black Appalachi not in his 11 qualifiers

thanks for the clarification

In the w'ender Mordin claims his system found Mon Mome last year despite it only getting 50 points (as per his column this time last year) vs some with 55, 60 points (and this year he only shortlists those with 55-60) which worries me (that's he's inclined to lie)

just to confirm the shortlist....
60 points
arbour supreme
character building
offshore account
snowy morning

55 points
chelsae harbour
flintoff
dream alliance
king johns castle
mr pointment
silver birch
the package

his chosen four from the list are
ARBOUR SUPREME
CHARACTER BUILDING
CHELSEA HARBOUR
MR POINTMENT.

Mon Mome did get 55 points last year dogbolter.

What I object to, is that whilst he's claiming to have picked 9 of the last 11 winners, the weekender (be this Mordin or the editorial team) are choosing to state a "system" profit £118 to £1 stakes over the last FOUR years. In my opinion if you're goinng to go quoting records dating back 11 years you should be stating the system records for that same period, but sadly that wouldn't include another 100-1 winner, and only two more above 16/1. Which from the number of qualifiers you'd have to back wouldn't make such impressive performances.

I find this interesting reading from a trends point of view for narrowing down the field, but for the ridiculous lists of "qualifiers" some years there's no way I'd consider it a serious betting "system".

ttt