Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
24 Mar 10
21:12
Joined:
Date Joined:
26 Oct 05
Having been reminded that Nick Mordin's Grand National system would be in next weeks weekender I dug out an old copy with the intention of running it by my leading fancies for the race. One of the requirements though is for the horse to have "completed the course in a field of 18 or more on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the past decade".
Could anyone help me please, by telling me which these courses are or where I might be able to find out?
Thank you.
Could anyone help me please, by telling me which these courses are or where I might be able to find out?
Thank you.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 95
|
By:
Waterwheel, the requirement alone tells you how nutty the man is. Well-intentioned and confident but a real batty professor.
Look for a horse that will stay the trip and is a good jumper. That will knock out about 95% of the field. Good luck |
|
By:
apparently get me out of here is a real 3 mile chasing prospect and sizing europe is too big for kempton. rofl.
|
|
By:
The main problem that I had with last years race was the punative handicap marks that Phil Smith gave to horses that had shown the slightest glimpse of form over the National Course, and that included fallers who had shown up for a long way in previous runnings. I couldn't fathom the race last year and it was the first time in my life that I never had a bet in the race.
I haven't had a look yet, but this year I might concentrate on horses that have never ran over the national course. I am a Nick Mordin fan by the way |
|
By:
and Big Buck's is far from unbeatable ;)
note: the exact same line was used for Zenyatta in last year's Breeders Cup Ladies Classic |
|
By:
this year I might concentrate on horses that have never ran over the national course.
Interesting you say that because Paul Nicholls has said on a number of occasions that he thinks a horse will run well over the fences on their first go but not so good next time. Not convinced myself but guess they could potentially take more chances over the fences if they've seen them before. |
|
By:
ben10,
There was a rich source of evidence from that reasoning with the Irish Grand National runners that went on to win at Aintree at the first attempt. |
|
By:
Thanks Kevo, I've been thinking about doing my own proper trends for the race but I wonder if it's worth keeping my focus to 'normal' races, if you know what I mean.
|
|
By:
Bobbyjo - Irish National winner 1st time over GN
Papillon - Irish National regular1st time over GN Red Marauder - fell previous year's GN Bindaree - 4th previous year's Topham Monty's Pass - 2nd previous year's Topham Amberleigh House - GN regular, Becher regular Hedgehunter - fell prevous year's GN Numbersixvalverde - Irish National winner 1st time over GN Silver Birch - fell prevous year's GN, won Becher Comply Or Die - GN virgin Mon Mome - 10th previous year's GN COD the only won that hadn't attempted GN fences or Irish National the previous Spring & he was entered for GN previous year but was injured |
|
By:
Seems this race is won by connections with a long-term plan - worth plotting for £0.5m I guess
|
|
By:
Excellent stuff 90th, certainly well worth looking at that. There are quite a few 'trends' races on the calendar that the winner just happens to be in the right place at the right time but the GN is different, you definitely need a horse who is having this as a long term target (possibly even from chase debut) which makes it a little harder.
|
|
By:
Certain requirements still seem to apply for this race and obviously stamina over 3m plus, unblemished jumping record, and most important for me, weight and a decent speed figure over a staying trip with a light campaign going into the race.
|
|
By:
Welsh National is a key race here imo. 98 Earth Summit won. 02 Bindaree 8l 3rd. 07 Silver Birch won. 09 Mon Mome 4l second.
|
|
By:
lordnoise,
Mon Mome ran abysmally in the 09 Welsh National and I backed him. He blundered his way over the first few fences and was never competetive after. He did complete the course however and stayed on very late out of the places. I backed him again in one of his other races where he produced another poor display of jumping but stayed on. It was very frustrating for me to see him winning the National last year, because despite his poor form he still fitted the profile of stammina and the ability to complete over marathon events. |
|
By:
Kevo - poor form ?!? He'd just posted the best RPR of his life at Cheltenham that November showing that he was an improving horse. I take your point about his run in the WN that year but he had finished a 4l 2nd previously. Remember class is permanent ( or very nearly LOL ! ).
|
|
By:
Yes lordnoise, but I didn't keep the faith and take the 100/1, did you?
|
|
By:
Aftertiming modesty doesnt allow me to answer that question.
|
|
By:
Feck it - I was matched at 300 on here !
|
|
By:
I suppose the lesson learned is that, if there are very few horses that meet your own requirements to win the race. Despite their current form dutch those few horses to win.
|
|
By:
Yes - have a main stable that fits the most important trends and Dutch them. Save your stake on the ones that nearly fit. Never let one of the lesser trends (not run within 40 odd days for instance) put you off. Above all understand why trends exist and dont be afraid to go against them if you believe your horse has a logical excuse for not having met them. I've won enough money (in my own punting terms) to look forward to this particular race more than any other in the calendar.
|
|
By:
Well done on that match lordnoise, my own recollection of the race was about 15 horses stilll in contention and still on the bridle with 2 to jump, I can't remember another national when so many horses still had a chance 2 out.
I hope Phil Smith doesn't reduce the race to a stick a pin judgement this year again. |
|
By:
The main problem for me with Mon Mome was that the stable jock had passed him over and he was still availabe at 300 with 10 days to go. I honestly thought Venetia intended to pull him out atb the 5 day stage but at the odds it was easy to have a few quid on him just in case.
|
|
By:
I'm off to bed now, good luck.
|
|
By:
'Interesting you say that because Paul Nicholls has said on a number of occasions that he thinks a horse will run well over the fences on their first go but not so good next time'
Off the top of my head, i can think of a dozen horses straight away that contradict this...Nicholls probably basing view on about 3 of his own horses FFS |
|
By:
I felt that the connections had plotted to win this years national and had done an excellent job in getting him a good mark, only for the trainer to complain that the horse was too harshly handicapped, yet they did not withdraw the horse at the first acceptance stage.
Since most people go into owning racehorses to win races and horses are bred for that very same reason, there are many accidents along the way and some are fatal, laying the blame at a racecourse or particular handicapper is plain stupid, but the trainer has a checquered carreer in Britain, Cahervillahow, springs to mind and instead of gaining revenge by taking the money back to Ireland, rather than firing insults. He did the business when he won the gold cup and should have taken a pop at the national as a parting shot for which was probably his best 'chaser. |
|
By:
Interesting stuff - for what it's worth, I think Mon Mome is only a couple of races away from a Timeform squiggle.
Whatever way you look at trends or any other approach there is one simple starting point, more important than jumping, class, weight, recent form and everything else put together. Will it stay? That question alone often knocks out a very large percentage of the field. |
|
By:
what are your fancies steeple
my antepost book includes Black Appalachi Ed Character Silver birch |
|
By:
Hello The Dragon,
I haven't had a proper look yet but Eric's Charm strikes me as very good value at 75 on here. |
|
By:
is he not a bit too old 12 i think
|
|
By:
jenny pitmans royal athlete was 12 and was ginger mccains last national winner 12
|
|
By:
wrong way around for erics
|
|
By:
The Dragon, here's a paste from my post on another thread (succinct analysis of grand national - well worth a look)
Eric's Charm interests me too. He will almost certainly get a run (10.9), will be a stone well in (now rated 149), he will very probably stay the trip, and, even at the age of 12, he is improving (currently on highest rating of his career). I think it a moot point about him being best in small fields. He has plenty of strong form in fields of between 16 and 18, including victories and placings. The ground shouldn't trouble him unless it is at either extreme. My main concern would be his jumping; he tends to throw in a bad one a bit too frequently to bet him with great confidence. Having said that, he has just two falls (one in the Topham which the trainer blamed on "being taken off his feet" by the pace) and one unseat to his name in a long career and has made only one mistake in his new found lease of life this season - the first time since 2003 he's managed to win two in a row. Who knows why some horses improve at such a late age? It's rare but it happens. I recall one called Mac Vidi who racked up a six-timer as a 14-year-old and finished 2nd in the 1980 Gold Cup at the age of 15. WOSO, trainer not bothered by left-handed - said so after Newbury win last time |
|
By:
Didn't he win at Newbury last time or am I thinking of the wrong horse. Probably needs McCoy on board to be at his best.
|
|
By:
Won his last two races one with and one without AP onboard :-
06Mar10 Nby 27GS 11-10 A P McCoy 05Dec09 San 30Sft 11-1 Leighton Aspell Would need a bit of give in the ground so if the forecast rain for the next couple of weeks does materialise could be a player at a big price |
|
By:
Fair point, just have a feeling McCoy gets that little bit extra out of him, have to give him a chance considering he's proven he can win off his mark. Doubt Nick will be including him in his trends?
Might be wrong because I don't follow him but I think Mordin's latest system is points based so you never actually rule anything wholly out, just find the highest scorer. |
|
By:
Erics Charm fits the regular National trends very nicely as well and I think he is overpriced too. Probably asking a bit much of him in all honesty but hes shown hes as good as ever this season and with a little bit of cut in the ground you could see him going well for a long way.
|
|
By:
thanks steeple
what is mccoy on do we know yet? |
|
By:
Mc coy-I keep telling everyone but nobody listens-he's on Arbor Supreme
|
|
By:
can you back it up please? ^
ta |
|
By:
Waterwheel - in case no one answered the question about the courses with 8.5% fallers it's Aintree, Ayr, Donny, Kempton, Lingfield, Wetherby, Wincanton and all the Irish courses
|