Is this the same Nick Mordin who wrote a huge article in the Weekender on why Tiday Bay was a 4/7 shot for the World Hurdle and Big Bucks was the lay of all time.

He can keep systems like that to himself

makes sense tbh but i want it in print before i believe it. hope ur right ;)

Thanks very much, dogbolter.

Anyone think Snowy Morning is a decent e/w shot? Has a nice weight this year and been running well.

or black Apalachi.

fair shout there

Chaz, the 13 requirements he listed in the weekender around this time last year as as follows.

1) Award 5 points to entries who have raced off a handicap mark of at least 137 that season (including in this race)
2) Five points if they had previously reached the front 3 in a chase with at least 13 runners.
3) Five points if they had won over at least 3 miles.
4) Another five points if they have won over 3m3f+ or reached the first three in one of the major nationals (Aintree, Scottish, Irish, Welsh & Midlands)
5) Five points if they did not race as a novice chaser in the previous season.
6) Five points if they had completed the course in a field of 18 or more on a chase track where more than 8.5% of runners have fallen in the past decade.
7) Five points if they are set to carry less than 11st2lb
8) Five points if they ran over hurdles this season.
9) Five points if they've won no more than once in their last 6 starts.
10) Five points if they were not bred in France.
11) Five points if they've run a n RPR rating higher than 145.
12) Five points if they haven't worn blinkers or a visor this season.
13) Five points if they've had 14 or fewer starts over fences.

Now counting Mon Mome, 11 of the last 12 winners had 50 points or more and 9 of 12 had 55 points or more.

I agree it shouldn't be taken too literally, but it clearly does work at narrowing down the field and I wanted no more than to check how my main fancies fared on it.

State of Play pretty much ticks all boxes - only let down on point 4 by not having won over 3m3 (won Henessey 3m2.5 under 11-4) and not having been in first 3 in a national (4th last year in GN)

All he does is jump and stay and he looks a solid option to me

Mordin last year fyi....

It is true that his 'system' does usually shortlist the winner to some degree - but the 'shortlist' isn't that short usually....

Last year three horses - Chelsea Harbour, Hear The Echo, Himalayan Trail got 60 points.

Four horses got 55 points - Parsons Legacy, Reveillez, Snowy Morning and Silver Birch.

And eight horses got 50 points - Mon Mome, Fleet Street, Rambling Minister, Idle Talk, Cornish Sett, Butlers Cabin, State of Play and Southern Vic.

The combined odds of the 60 pointers were about 9.37/1, down to 55 points was 4.9/1 and down to 50 points was 1.08/1.

He usually says just perm the top rated, so it's misleading to say his system highlighted the winner last year.

Also he changes his system a little bit every year - probably because the recent winners have made the shortlist but not the final selection list. He used to eliminate horses not meeting his rules then 2yrs ago he changed it to adding up positive points not ruling out horses.

For example with French breds 1st, 3rd and 5th last year it wouldn't surprise me if that one is dropped this year.

I find it an interesting guide but I've never managed to back the winner on the back of it (and nor has Mordin as far as I can remember)

Interesting he still stuck with the blinker/visor thing last year after Complys win in 08.

Why?

Running a horse over hurdles suggests:

1. Connections think their horse has a mark worth protecting
2. Indicates that connections are preparing a hourse throughout the season with one target in mind.

Worthy of some acknowledgment imo.

Fair point. Perhaps there should be different weightings applied.

or even 8 after 4 :p

you get my point ;)

Had a quick go:
55 Arbor Supreme
50 Backstage
50 The Package
50 State Of Play
50 My Will
45 Dont Push It
45 Mon Mone
45 Ballyholland
45 Big Fella Thanks

Got ap bet on Backstage and will probably back State Of Play and perhaps the other 2 top rated. Good Luck!

This is it guys!!!!

I copied these stats from a thread that was posted on here prior to last years' National so take no credit for them if they are of interest to anyone... makes interesting reading though!

'Apologies if someone has already done one of these threads - I couldn't see one. All trends are for last 10 years unless otherwise stated:

Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)

Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.

Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)

Applying these trends to the remaining 19 horses, we are left with a shortlist of just 6:
Royal Auclair
Dun Doire
Slim Pickings 3rd
Silver Birch 1st
Mckelvey 2nd
Sonevafushi

Of these, Royal Auclair has too much weight for my liking really and Sonevafushi has never actually won a decent race, which all previous winners had. That leaves 4 - you can do the rest yourselves!'

smartie

dooneys and afo are nr's fwiw

As much as I applaud Nick for his general approach it would have been nice if his system had actually picked the winner recently.

No - yours is the Silver Birch system but not the Comply Or Die or Mon Mome one.

Actually Mon Mome would have qulified as well! OMG

There was one similar to yours that picked it though.