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Michrich
04 Apr 10 06:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 873 | Blogger: Michrich's blog
Posted on his website last week

St Nicholas Abbey is a tall, long striding sort that has yet to fill his frame. He's certainly not suited to a trip as short as the mile of this contest, especially in a sprint finish. And the only other serious horses in this line up were ten furlong plus sorts. So clearly the Guineas is no longer under consideration. I'd still be concerned about such a gangly looking horse negotiating Tattenham Corner.
Pause Switch to Standard View King Nick talks sense about SNA
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Report taffy April 4, 2010 8:12 AM BST
His recorded race time was slower than the 2 2yo races on the Friday - one of whcih was a 76 rated Nursery winner.
By comparison 2 of the 7f races on the Saturday were quicker than the 2 on the Friday.
SNAs winning time therefore was way short of classic standard.
Report Julius Caesar ( JC 100 BC ) April 4, 2010 8:28 AM BST
Expect some grief over this post m8.
Report sj April 4, 2010 8:33 AM BST
lol^
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 9:29 AM BST
Taffy, your comments are not especially shrewd. Firstly, don't compare times on different days. Secondly, there was heavy rain at Donny on the Saturday afternoon which means time comparison between races is difficult. You couldn't, for example, compare the time of the rP trophy with the time of the opening nursery in a meaningful way as the ground had changed. However, I have never understood why people think the RP trophy was a slow time. If you compare it with the 5 furlong sprint before it, the 6 furlong listed event before it, or the 7 furlong conditions event after it, it emerges as an outstanding time, the best juvenile time of the season by far over 7 or 8 furlongs, and a pound or two quicker than Awzaan in the Middle Park. I'm not all that big on SNA for the Guineas but in terms of time he has nothing to prove and would in my view be a certainty for the Derby if he has trained on.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 10:13 AM BST
. So clearly the Guineas is no longer under consideration. I'd still be concerned about such a gangly looking horse negotiating Tattenham Corner.
Then imo King Nick,needs to go and have another look at the horse,in no way is he big and gangly at all,and as far as I can see most of you posters seem to think he cant win just because he's by Montjeu,well remember Montjeu is still only a young stallion and may yet be able to get horses with class over the mile.
Report town moor April 4, 2010 10:28 AM BST
Certainly wasn't a gangly sort when I saw him in the pre parade ring on RP trophy day. To me that was by a very long way, the best RP trophy performance I have ever seen. Unfortunately I had backed Al Zir a few days before the race.
Report elisjohn April 4, 2010 10:40 AM BST
town moor, the celtic swing racing post win imo was the top performance ever for a 2 year old, just look on some of the runners he destroed in that race
Report taffy April 4, 2010 11:52 AM BST
Howellsy

You talk utter tripe. I have never seen such a complete refusal to face facts. The times were:-

Modeyra 1.38.89
Antoniola 1.38.37
St Nicholas Abbey 1.39.62 (Sat)

Tamaathul 1.25.50
Rashaad 1.27.03
Steel Stockholder 1.27.35
Leviathan 1.26.03 (Sat)

If the ground was slower on Saturday why was Leviathan faster than Rashaad and Steel Stockholder. Why was the time for Hunterview run at 4.05 over 12f only 0.82 outside RP standard.

Your comment that it was an outstanding time is a complete joke.
Report Michrich April 4, 2010 12:17 PM BST
At least we now have less than 4 weeks to find out. With the exception of George Washington I always fancy AOB's runners more when they aren't fancied like when Henrythenavigator or Footsetepsinthesand both won at good prices. I think this is one of those years where the trials will provide the best clues like when Haafd won and I won't be putting any serious money down until after the Greenham. I do think if Workforce has trained on he has a cracking chance.
Report geoff m April 4, 2010 12:35 PM BST
I didnt think the time was out the top drawer for the Racing Post trophy & that was mainly down to the steady pace for the 1st 3 furlongs, which makes it more meritorious the way SNA sliced thro the field & put distance into his rivals in such a short space of time.
Ive looked @ the photographs I have of SNA from that day & I certainly wouldnt class him as gangly.
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 12:43 PM BST
Taffy, I have already reminded you that the ground deteriorated significantly after the first race on the Saturday. I would add that Tamaathul's time on the FRiday was an outstanding one too, and I think he'll be a proper horse this season.

The Racing Post had a similar dilemma to you, Taff. On the Saturday Topspeed reckoned that Quest For Success, Layla, and Mias Boy - all reliable yardsticks in their grade,ran between 30 and 50 points below their racing post ratings. This is how they justify giving SNA a speed figure of 92. The truth is surely more likely to be that all three aforementioned horses ran 20-30 points faster than Topspeed think, bringing them all more in line with their ratings and making SNA a 110+ speed figure, not far off 120 in fact.

Speed figures are never an exact science Taff, but I find it impossible to believe that 3 separate races over 5-7 furlongs were all slowly run and all 30-50 points below what they should have been. These were the races on the card that were most likely to produce proper speed figures too.

Taff, I respectfully submit that you and Topspeed both got it wrong on this occasion.
Report taffy April 4, 2010 1:04 PM BST
H
If the ground deteriorated to a significant exent how do you explain the time of Hunterview, which as I pointed out was only .89 secs outside standard in a race run 35 minutes after SNA.
How much faster would he have run the race if it had been on the Friday.
Report jamesp April 4, 2010 1:05 PM BST
Workforce backers beware - John Dunlop's Elusive Pimpernel is quite likely to take him on in the Craven, and my money would be on Elusive Pimpernel.
Report Shark12 April 4, 2010 1:07 PM BST
Just had a look at the best 2yo speed ratings from Raceform - SNA has a lowly 100 for his RP win.

Top speed figures:
Canford Cliffs - 113 (Coventry)
Arcano - 112 (July Stakes)
Passion for Gold - 112 (Saint-Cloud)
Beethoven - 112 (Dewhurst)
Siyouni - 112 (Lagardere)
Elusive Pimpernel - 111 (Acomb)

Anyone taking 9/4 - 2/1 for this horse is a lunatic in my opinion.
Report jamesp April 4, 2010 1:08 PM BST
The 12f race at Doncaster on RPT day should not be used to make meaningful time comparisons with races run over a mile or less.
Report taffy April 4, 2010 1:22 PM BST
jsp

Why not. Why ignore a very relevant piece of evidence.
Report geoff m April 4, 2010 1:23 PM BST
Knocking the horse because he didnt but up a scorching time fig in the R.P trophy is bizarre.
You are therefore appear to be concluding that if the race had been run @ a far stronger pace
SNA would have still run the same time.
If you cant see that SNA could have run significantly faster if required too that day then you are watching the wrong sport.
Would be interesting if their had been sectionals available as id willingy bet 1.01 no horse ran a faster final 2 furlongs over the 2days than SNA.
Report geoff m April 4, 2010 1:27 PM BST
Taffy for the same reason as
Carraciola ran the last 6 furlongs quicker of the Queen Alexandra Stakes on Saturday of the Royal meeting than Art Conniseur did in the G1.Golden Jubillee sprint
Report taffy April 4, 2010 1:30 PM BST
gm

I havent a clue what you are talking about.
Report Shark12 April 4, 2010 1:33 PM BST
My opposition to SNA revolves around his price. A number of factors contribute to my assessment - his poor speed figures over his career (not just RPT) are just one factor ive considered.

Racing Post Trophy - 100
Beresford Stakes - 89
Maiden - 101

Its a game of opinions and I dont think SNA is a worthy 9/4 or 2/1 shot.
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 1:46 PM BST
Races run on the straight track in mid afternoon on the day, taken from racing Post results analysis. The first fig is the rpr, the second fig is the topspeed:

5f Quest For Success 104 62 (-41)
6f Layla's Hero 105 54 (-51)
8f SNA 123 92 (-31)
7f Mia's Boy 111 53 (-58)

I fail to see how anyone who does speed figures can justify those reductions.
Even if you take a most conservative view, and raise the figs by a mere 20, it gives SNA a speed fig of 112, which is a serious fig over a mile for any juvenile.
If you raise them by 30, which still leaves all 3 proven winners of the other races well below what you might reasonably expect, you have SNA on 122, which is mindblowing for a juvenile over a mile.

Whichever way you calculate speed figs, whatever your view, you have to accept there is a serious anomaly in those figures.
Report push April 4, 2010 1:51 PM BST
Workforces sire Kings Best was beaten in the Craven before going on to win the Guineas.
Report taffy April 4, 2010 1:56 PM BST
h

You will have to speak to the RP as to their figures and how they compile them.
The race times themselves for Leviathan and Hunterview support the thesis that there was little affect of the rain on the Saturday times and that the straight comparisons for the times over the mile on the Friday and Saturday suggest that SNA did not produce a classic standard race time.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 2:03 PM BST
All this minute analysing of the RP,which horse has sired what,regardless of all of this one thing stands out a mile if you can see further than the end of your nose,is SNA is top class and the one all others have to beat..............and whats more you all know it too.
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 2:03 PM BST
Taffy, I will say this only once more, anyone will tell you that you never compare times on different days. It's not just the going that can change - it's wind direction, wind speed etc.

Secondly, those who assume the rp trophy was run at a crawl, I suggest you watch the video with a stop watch. Bear in mind that 12 furlongs per second would equate to a reasonable gallop.

It's impossible to gauge exactly when they pass each furlong pole, but they aren't far away from 12 furlongs per second for the first 5. Between the 3 and 2, when the commentator says 'the sprint is on' they actually slow down.

Furthermore, the finishing positions of the first 5 beaten horses exactly match my speed figures for them prior to this race. I know that's subjective, but all that would need to happen for my figures to tie in with Topspeed is for them to increase their figures so that 3 other key races are brought more in lne with what you'd expect..
Report taffy April 4, 2010 2:07 PM BST
pd

The fact is you do not know it until he has been in a race run at a true classic pace end to end.
Only then will we know. Until then you are guessing.

Good luck to all for the Season
Report taffy April 4, 2010 2:14 PM BST
h

Of course you can compare times on different days. Weather changes all the time even during the course of a single day but distances stay the same on the Flat and they were the same at Doncaster.
Thats why comparisons are totally relevant.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 2:15 PM BST
taffy 04 Apr 14:07
pd

The fact is you do not know it until he has been in a race run at a true classic pace end to end.
Only then will we know. Until then you are guessing.

Thats true,but some of us keep our eyes and ears open and can see further than the end of our nose,and by the way some of us don't wear anaroak's.
Report duncan idaho April 4, 2010 2:21 PM BST
I'll bear my arris in Paddy P owers window if SNA loses the Derby cos he didnt handle Tatt Corner
Report mythical prince April 4, 2010 2:25 PM BST
ob i cant claim to be a great speed ratings expert, but i roughly hand timed the last furlong of the racing post trophy and the may hill, and pollenator ran her final furlong significantly quicker than st nick abbey, albeit not much can be read into that as geoff already pointed out to me, because of the greatly differing ground.

it's surely the sectionals that are significant in the racing post trophy rather than the final time, as the race was slowly run, and you have to compare the times to others on the same card.
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 2:29 PM BST
MP how do you know the race was slowly run?
Report mythical prince April 4, 2010 2:33 PM BST
sorry just read your post earlier it appears it wasnt... the may hill def looked like it was though
Report geoff m April 4, 2010 3:55 PM BST
Mordins assessment of the Curragh Gallops as posted by intital thread.

St Nicholas Abbey is a tall, long striding sort that has yet to fill his frame. He's certainly not suited to a trip as short as the mile of this contest, especially in a sprint finish. And the only other serious horses in this line up were ten furlong plus sorts. So clearly the Guineas is no longer under consideration.
Seems to have drawn the wrong conclusion
Report Michrich April 4, 2010 4:02 PM BST
What normally happens after a race like this? Does everyone congratulate the people whose judgement was right or is it more like look how I was right and you were wrong?
Report thefarmer April 4, 2010 5:50 PM BST
I tend to agree with Mordin on this one. Horses like SNA that are able to win over a mile as a 2yo are normally middle distance types and as such will probably lack the speed to win a Guineas. I might be wrong but i think SNA lacks the speed of an Arcano or Canford Cliffs and will get run off his feet before staying on at the finish.
Report geoff m April 4, 2010 6:11 PM BST
Tis all about opinions but SNA would have beaten his R.P field over 6/7 /8 /9 furlongs because he was different class to his rivals.
If hed struggled to the pace then fair enough, but he didnt he cruised in behind
He didnt win the race by staying powers he won it by producing a turn of foot just under the 2 furlong marker.
Nothing i saw in that race suggested Murtagh couldnt have delivered that thrust any time he wanted he travelled strongly on the bridle & never looked in trouble @ any stage.

As ive said previously whether he could produce that on fast ground is the only potential achilles heel imo.
Any give in the ground really cant see him getting beat
Report Charlton2005 April 4, 2010 6:20 PM BST
Fair enough Geoff and a good summary of the positive points in his favour. IMO though the 2nd and 3rd in that race will turn out to be below average G1 fodder and the win flattered SNA. Throw in the unknown abilities of a dozen other horses and the fact that 8f may turn out not to be his thing, I will happily lay him E/W at 5/2. In any event, GL.
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 6:37 PM BST
SNA fans for the Guineas, it may well be worth spending a few minutes doing what I did today. I timed as best I could the furlongs in the RP trophy, reckoning on approximately 12 seconds per furlong for the first 5. I then did the same for the Dewhurst - the difference is striking. The race was fiercely run throughout, and a totally different type of test to the RP trophy, much more akin to the Guineas. Yes, of course it's possible that SNA will be able to travel at a much faster pace, but unless they are somehow disposed to replicate those fractions at home - which I doubt, judging on the mickey mouse gallop we saw the other day - SNA will have a shock when the gates open and he is asked to go at 6-7 furlong pace after 3 runs at a mile.
Report GRIZLY April 4, 2010 6:41 PM BST
it is just my opinion but i dont think elusive pimprenel is group 1 class
Report ribotman April 4, 2010 6:48 PM BST
howelsy...have you changed your mind having compared dewhurst to rp trophy?
i don't know what to make of dewhurst with bunched finish..they can't be all champions can they?
prior to rpt everyone said what a strong race it looked,now it didn't beat much.
Report Try My Best April 4, 2010 6:56 PM BST
Surely it's a case that the horse has been ridden to win his races and not break track records.I think there is plenty left in the locker and he will want to put up his best performances this year.
Report Howellsy April 4, 2010 7:03 PM BST
ribotman, I agree it's never a good sign when you get a bunch finish, which is why I feel confident in asserting that SNA is an exceptional colt and would be a certainty for the Derby given a proper stayer's campaign ie Derrinstown trial. However, I just have my doubts whether he will have the speed to travel in the Guineas. I think Beethoven will struggle to improve on his impressive Dewhurst win, and Fencing Master didn't travel well, despite earning huge credit for staying on relentlessly. He reminded me of his sire's run in the Guineas - being ridden virtually from the gate. I came away from the video thinking that Xtension might be the best value at the moment - a sweet traveller, experienced without being fuilly exposed, stable well into its stride. Instinct tells me he's not really quite good enough to win it though.
Report Charlton2005 April 4, 2010 7:04 PM BST
ribotman 04 Apr 18:48
howelsy...have you changed your mind having compared dewhurst to rp trophy?
i don't know what to make of dewhurst with bunched finish..they can't be all champions can they?
prior to rpt everyone said what a strong race it looked,now it didn't beat much.


If it was a strong race, the 2nd/3rd in it would not be 40/1 no hopers for the 2000 imo.
Report ribotman April 4, 2010 7:16 PM BST
just looked at horses beat in rpt,al zir,elusive pimp pretty decent prior form.
thing that puts me off sna,apart from price,is the dismal record of rpt winners in guineas.think beethoven might win a classic somewhere.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 7:41 PM BST
ribotman,Do you not see that SNA is much much better than most RPT winners,to compare him against them is like chalk and cheese.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 7:43 PM BST
^^^ the other Ballydoyle runners in the guineas are in to ensure a strong pace setting it up for SNA,you all must see that.
Report jamesp April 4, 2010 7:57 PM BST
The very best horses are generally versatile with regard to race distance. SNA would have won the Dewhurst, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere or any other Group 1 race over 7f last year. The RPT form will hold up well, in my opinion. Elusive Pimpernel is a genuine Group 1 class horse.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 8:00 PM BST
jamesp,I totally agree with you on that.
Report ribotman April 4, 2010 8:13 PM BST
pr donna....he may be,but i and timeform thought ibn khaldoun and crowded house were top class,but disapointed subsequently.
of course if some one offered me 6/1 sna guineas i'd take it,but i think there are enough dangers to him at the price he is now.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 8:21 PM BST
ribotman 04 Apr 20:13
pr donna....he may be,but i and timeform thought ibn khaldoun and crowded house were top class,but disapointed subsequently.
Forgive me for stating the obvious ribotman,but those two were never going to do anything other than disappoint, SNA is in a different class to both those two.
Report push April 4, 2010 9:47 PM BST
Why should that be ( PD ). Given their pedigrees they should have progressed from 2-3 years .
Report Charlton2005 April 4, 2010 9:48 PM BST
Always obvious when you know the result push.
Report Prima Donna April 4, 2010 10:15 PM BST
Push, it wasn't obv that Ibn Khaldoun would flop on pedigree, more like who trained him. Crowded House by Rainbow Quest and that horse is always a source of unsoundness. IMO I always felt he was a similar horse to Armiger.
Report Win only - Sp only April 4, 2010 11:28 PM BST
any of you nick worshipers like to lay me 3/1 for a grand ante post rules for the guineas? and no benji you are not invited to lay this!
Report kincsem April 5, 2010 1:19 AM BST
My worry about St Nicholas Abbey is that he is by Montjeu and I expect 8f is too short for him as a 3yo. Winning over 8f as a 2yo was probably playing to his strong suit - stamina.

The Dewhurst was probably not a good race. Beethoven's overall form is not great, and the 2nd was born on 24th April which means he was a very young horse (he could be a great or they were all average).
Report push April 5, 2010 7:36 AM BST
and who thought STS would turn out to be a great, after a short head victory in the Beresford ( over 1 mile ). It all depends on how much they progress over the winter, and continue to progress with age.
Report geoff m April 5, 2010 10:20 AM BST
Howellsy im not sure what pics you are working from , but id defy anyone to clock the sectionals for the R.P trophy & come up with anythin remotely accurate for each furlong.
As they are racing virtually head on towrds the camera in the early stages its impossible to get an angle when they are going post the furlong markers.
A prime example is the 6 furlong pole(stands side) dissapears from camera & its full 6 seconds before the 6 pole on the far side comes into view.
Thats one huge gulf for error.
Report Shark12 April 5, 2010 3:22 PM BST
There seems to be a bit of misrepresentation going on here.

For the record - I think that SNA looks a top class racehorse and could certainly emulate STS & Nashwan and win at Newmarket before going on to win the Derby.

However, the game is about opinions and PRICES. My opposition to SNA at Newmarket is price and price alone.

He may hack up, but im not prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt at 3/1 9/4 or 2/1. It simply does not represent value in my opinion.
Report Prima Donna April 5, 2010 3:40 PM BST
Shark12 05 Apr 15:22
There seems to be a bit of misrepresentation going on here.

For the record - I think that SNA looks a top class racehorse and could certainly emulate STS & Nashwan and win at Newmarket before going on to win the Derby.

Yeah I sure do as well.
Report Kevbetting superstar April 5, 2010 9:04 PM BST
**SY - I will lay you £200 at the best price available.
Report Win only - Sp only April 5, 2010 9:09 PM BST
3/1 i'm after please, it has no chance according to your guru.
Report Kevbetting superstar April 5, 2010 9:18 PM BST
**SY - will lay you £200 at 3.8 at ante post rules. Offer open til 10pm. Your call.
Report Win only - Sp only April 5, 2010 9:27 PM BST
thats a bet kev.
Report Charlton2005 April 5, 2010 11:31 PM BST
Oh Jesus. Can't see any problems here!

Kidding though. Based on forum posts I would trust both of these.

GL to you both

:)
Report pedrobob April 5, 2010 11:39 PM BST
taffy 04 Apr 11:52

Howellsy

You talk utter tripe. I have never seen such a complete refusal to face facts. The times were:-

Modeyra 1.38.89
Antoniola 1.38.37
St Nicholas Abbey 1.39.62 (Sat)


Taffy, as Howellsy pointed out, you are comparing times on different days. On my figs, times were at least 2 secs per mile quicker on Friday.

Not only that, the 1m races on Friday were on the round track, so just not comparable with Sat's straight mile RP Trophy
Report taffy April 6, 2010 6:28 PM BST
Pb

The standard time for 8f over the round course is 0.4 secs more than for the straight 8f. Therefore SNAs time is even less good.

According to Raceform there was only 1.5 mm of rain overnight.

Leviathons time of 1.26.03 in the first was faster than 2 of the 7f times on the Friday. This seems at odds with your view that the Friday times were 2 secs quicker.

If rain had got into the ground significantly as the afternoon progressed, how come Hunterviews time for the 4.05 was at 2.32.82 only 0.82 outside the standard and faster than the 10f and 14f times on the Friday for the respective standards.
Report Prima Donna April 6, 2010 6:50 PM BST
King Nick talks sense.............no-one else seems to be of late on this thread,all of this point nought of a second faster on this day or point nought of of second slower that day so that proves SNA is a dodgy bet and can't win.Dont you all think you are looking far too hard,that fact is its staring you right in the face,imo most of you know this, only a few weeks away then all questions will be answered.
Report town moor April 6, 2010 6:57 PM BST
Taffy did you notice that SNA came from off the pace and beat all the other (previously well thought of) horses convincingly? Had he made the pace I could understand your argument- though I'd always disagree with comparing times on two different courses on two different days.
Report Michrich April 6, 2010 7:02 PM BST
Well said PD, exactly why I started this. I also think it could be a 20+ field this year and so I'm not making any serious bets until I see the draw.
Report Stormbird April 6, 2010 7:02 PM BST
Will SNA be ridden in the same style come Guineas day ? Coming from the back of the field proved a disaster for backers of Ravens Pass (:
Report Shark12 April 6, 2010 7:15 PM BST
"Dont you all think you are looking far too hard,that fact is its staring you right in the face,imo most of you know this, only a few weeks away then all questions will be answered."

Yes indeed it will - for this race. However if we continually back 5/2 shots that represent poor value then we will be skint. Some will win, most will lose, I think SNA is a poor 5/2 shot and so wont be backing him.....and if he wins at Newmarket then I still wont think it was a good 5/2 shot.
Report Prima Donna April 6, 2010 7:18 PM BST
Well thats fine by me .............you just sit back and watch,I think you will see something to remember for a long time.
Report Shark12 April 6, 2010 7:27 PM BST
And you may be right....but at 5/2 I wont be backing on your say so.
Report Stormbird April 6, 2010 7:29 PM BST
If the ground is G-F, O Brien runs more than 3, and there is a big field for the Guineas , he may drift in the betting 7-2 or 4-1.
Report Shark12 April 6, 2010 7:30 PM BST
Come Guineas day if I can get 6/1 or better then I may back.
Report GAVT67 April 6, 2010 7:39 PM BST
Guy's just been on U-tube watching both SNA and Canford Cliffs races from last season. Def not a 2 horse race but can't wait to see if SNA has still got the trademark burst of speed when the accelerator's pressed, and can Canford Cliffs put that last race over in France behind him. Only 4 weeks on Saturday till the Guineas. Anybody any thoughts ??????
Report geoff m April 6, 2010 8:00 PM BST
Shark 6s.
Living in a dream world.
SNA will only shorten if you think 5/2 its a good lay .
Wait till gns day he willl be 7/4 ish
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