King Nick talks sense about SNA

His recorded race time was slower than the 2 2yo races on the Friday - one of whcih was a 76 rated Nursery winner.
By comparison 2 of the 7f races on the Saturday were quicker than the 2 on the Friday.
SNAs winning time therefore was way short of classic standard.

lol^

. So clearly the Guineas is no longer under consideration. I'd still be concerned about such a gangly looking horse negotiating Tattenham Corner.
Then imo King Nick,needs to go and have another look at the horse,in no way is he big and gangly at all,and as far as I can see most of you posters seem to think he cant win just because he's by Montjeu,well remember Montjeu is still only a young stallion and may yet be able to get horses with class over the mile.

town moor, the celtic swing racing post win imo was the top performance ever for a 2 year old, just look on some of the runners he destroed in that race

At least we now have less than 4 weeks to find out. With the exception of George Washington I always fancy AOB's runners more when they aren't fancied like when Henrythenavigator or Footsetepsinthesand both won at good prices. I think this is one of those years where the trials will provide the best clues like when Haafd won and I won't be putting any serious money down until after the Greenham. I do think if Workforce has trained on he has a cracking chance.

Taffy, I have already reminded you that the ground deteriorated significantly after the first race on the Saturday. I would add that Tamaathul's time on the FRiday was an outstanding one too, and I think he'll be a proper horse this season.

The Racing Post had a similar dilemma to you, Taff. On the Saturday Topspeed reckoned that Quest For Success, Layla, and Mias Boy - all reliable yardsticks in their grade,ran between 30 and 50 points below their racing post ratings. This is how they justify giving SNA a speed figure of 92. The truth is surely more likely to be that all three aforementioned horses ran 20-30 points faster than Topspeed think, bringing them all more in line with their ratings and making SNA a 110+ speed figure, not far off 120 in fact.

Speed figures are never an exact science Taff, but I find it impossible to believe that 3 separate races over 5-7 furlongs were all slowly run and all 30-50 points below what they should have been. These were the races on the card that were most likely to produce proper speed figures too.

Taff, I respectfully submit that you and Topspeed both got it wrong on this occasion.

Workforce backers beware - John Dunlop's Elusive Pimpernel is quite likely to take him on in the Craven, and my money would be on Elusive Pimpernel.

The 12f race at Doncaster on RPT day should not be used to make meaningful time comparisons with races run over a mile or less.

Knocking the horse because he didnt but up a scorching time fig in the R.P trophy is bizarre.
You are therefore appear to be concluding that if the race had been run @ a far stronger pace
SNA would have still run the same time.
If you cant see that SNA could have run significantly faster if required too that day then you are watching the wrong sport.
Would be interesting if their had been sectionals available as id willingy bet 1.01 no horse ran a faster final 2 furlongs over the 2days than SNA.

gm

I havent a clue what you are talking about.

Races run on the straight track in mid afternoon on the day, taken from racing Post results analysis. The first fig is the rpr, the second fig is the topspeed:

5f Quest For Success 104 62 (-41)
6f Layla's Hero 105 54 (-51)
8f SNA 123 92 (-31)
7f Mia's Boy 111 53 (-58)

I fail to see how anyone who does speed figures can justify those reductions.
Even if you take a most conservative view, and raise the figs by a mere 20, it gives SNA a speed fig of 112, which is a serious fig over a mile for any juvenile.
If you raise them by 30, which still leaves all 3 proven winners of the other races well below what you might reasonably expect, you have SNA on 122, which is mindblowing for a juvenile over a mile.

Whichever way you calculate speed figs, whatever your view, you have to accept there is a serious anomaly in those figures.

h

You will have to speak to the RP as to their figures and how they compile them.
The race times themselves for Leviathan and Hunterview support the thesis that there was little affect of the rain on the Saturday times and that the straight comparisons for the times over the mile on the Friday and Saturday suggest that SNA did not produce a classic standard race time.

Taffy, I will say this only once more, anyone will tell you that you never compare times on different days. It's not just the going that can change - it's wind direction, wind speed etc.

Secondly, those who assume the rp trophy was run at a crawl, I suggest you watch the video with a stop watch. Bear in mind that 12 furlongs per second would equate to a reasonable gallop.

It's impossible to gauge exactly when they pass each furlong pole, but they aren't far away from 12 furlongs per second for the first 5. Between the 3 and 2, when the commentator says 'the sprint is on' they actually slow down.

Furthermore, the finishing positions of the first 5 beaten horses exactly match my speed figures for them prior to this race. I know that's subjective, but all that would need to happen for my figures to tie in with Topspeed is for them to increase their figures so that 3 other key races are brought more in lne with what you'd expect..

h

Of course you can compare times on different days. Weather changes all the time even during the course of a single day but distances stay the same on the Flat and they were the same at Doncaster.
Thats why comparisons are totally relevant.

I'll bear my arris in Paddy P owers window if SNA loses the Derby cos he didnt handle Tatt Corner

MP how do you know the race was slowly run?

Mordins assessment of the Curragh Gallops as posted by intital thread.

St Nicholas Abbey is a tall, long striding sort that has yet to fill his frame. He's certainly not suited to a trip as short as the mile of this contest, especially in a sprint finish. And the only other serious horses in this line up were ten furlong plus sorts. So clearly the Guineas is no longer under consideration.
Seems to have drawn the wrong conclusion

I tend to agree with Mordin on this one. Horses like SNA that are able to win over a mile as a 2yo are normally middle distance types and as such will probably lack the speed to win a Guineas. I might be wrong but i think SNA lacks the speed of an Arcano or Canford Cliffs and will get run off his feet before staying on at the finish.

Fair enough Geoff and a good summary of the positive points in his favour. IMO though the 2nd and 3rd in that race will turn out to be below average G1 fodder and the win flattered SNA. Throw in the unknown abilities of a dozen other horses and the fact that 8f may turn out not to be his thing, I will happily lay him E/W at 5/2. In any event, GL.

it is just my opinion but i dont think elusive pimprenel is group 1 class