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howelsy...have you changed your mind having compared dewhurst to rp trophy?
i don't know what to make of dewhurst with bunched finish..they can't be all champions can they? prior to rpt everyone said what a strong race it looked,now it didn't beat much. |
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Surely it's a case that the horse has been ridden to win his races and not break track records.I think there is plenty left in the locker and he will want to put up his best performances this year.
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ribotman, I agree it's never a good sign when you get a bunch finish, which is why I feel confident in asserting that SNA is an exceptional colt and would be a certainty for the Derby given a proper stayer's campaign ie Derrinstown trial. However, I just have my doubts whether he will have the speed to travel in the Guineas. I think Beethoven will struggle to improve on his impressive Dewhurst win, and Fencing Master didn't travel well, despite earning huge credit for staying on relentlessly. He reminded me of his sire's run in the Guineas - being ridden virtually from the gate. I came away from the video thinking that Xtension might be the best value at the moment - a sweet traveller, experienced without being fuilly exposed, stable well into its stride. Instinct tells me he's not really quite good enough to win it though.
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ribotman 04 Apr 18:48
howelsy...have you changed your mind having compared dewhurst to rp trophy? i don't know what to make of dewhurst with bunched finish..they can't be all champions can they? prior to rpt everyone said what a strong race it looked,now it didn't beat much. If it was a strong race, the 2nd/3rd in it would not be 40/1 no hopers for the 2000 imo. |
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just looked at horses beat in rpt,al zir,elusive pimp pretty decent prior form.
thing that puts me off sna,apart from price,is the dismal record of rpt winners in guineas.think beethoven might win a classic somewhere. |
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ribotman,Do you not see that SNA is much much better than most RPT winners,to compare him against them is like chalk and cheese.
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^^^ the other Ballydoyle runners in the guineas are in to ensure a strong pace setting it up for SNA,you all must see that.
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The very best horses are generally versatile with regard to race distance. SNA would have won the Dewhurst, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere or any other Group 1 race over 7f last year. The RPT form will hold up well, in my opinion. Elusive Pimpernel is a genuine Group 1 class horse.
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jamesp,I totally agree with you on that.
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pr donna....he may be,but i and timeform thought ibn khaldoun and crowded house were top class,but disapointed subsequently.
of course if some one offered me 6/1 sna guineas i'd take it,but i think there are enough dangers to him at the price he is now. |
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ribotman 04 Apr 20:13
pr donna....he may be,but i and timeform thought ibn khaldoun and crowded house were top class,but disapointed subsequently. Forgive me for stating the obvious ribotman,but those two were never going to do anything other than disappoint, SNA is in a different class to both those two. |
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Why should that be ( PD ). Given their pedigrees they should have progressed from 2-3 years .
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Always obvious when you know the result push.
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Push, it wasn't obv that Ibn Khaldoun would flop on pedigree, more like who trained him. Crowded House by Rainbow Quest and that horse is always a source of unsoundness. IMO I always felt he was a similar horse to Armiger.
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any of you nick worshipers like to lay me 3/1 for a grand ante post rules for the guineas? and no benji you are not invited to lay this!
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My worry about St Nicholas Abbey is that he is by Montjeu and I expect 8f is too short for him as a 3yo. Winning over 8f as a 2yo was probably playing to his strong suit - stamina.
The Dewhurst was probably not a good race. Beethoven's overall form is not great, and the 2nd was born on 24th April which means he was a very young horse (he could be a great or they were all average). |
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and who thought STS would turn out to be a great, after a short head victory in the Beresford ( over 1 mile ). It all depends on how much they progress over the winter, and continue to progress with age.
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Howellsy im not sure what pics you are working from , but id defy anyone to clock the sectionals for the R.P trophy & come up with anythin remotely accurate for each furlong.
As they are racing virtually head on towrds the camera in the early stages its impossible to get an angle when they are going post the furlong markers. A prime example is the 6 furlong pole(stands side) dissapears from camera & its full 6 seconds before the 6 pole on the far side comes into view. Thats one huge gulf for error. |
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There seems to be a bit of misrepresentation going on here.
For the record - I think that SNA looks a top class racehorse and could certainly emulate STS & Nashwan and win at Newmarket before going on to win the Derby. However, the game is about opinions and PRICES. My opposition to SNA at Newmarket is price and price alone. He may hack up, but im not prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt at 3/1 9/4 or 2/1. It simply does not represent value in my opinion. |
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Shark12 05 Apr 15:22
There seems to be a bit of misrepresentation going on here. For the record - I think that SNA looks a top class racehorse and could certainly emulate STS & Nashwan and win at Newmarket before going on to win the Derby. Yeah I sure do as well. |
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**SY - I will lay you £200 at the best price available.
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3/1 i'm after please, it has no chance according to your guru.
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**SY - will lay you £200 at 3.8 at ante post rules. Offer open til 10pm. Your call.
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thats a bet kev.
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Oh Jesus. Can't see any problems here!
Kidding though. Based on forum posts I would trust both of these. GL to you both :) |
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taffy 04 Apr 11:52
Howellsy You talk utter tripe. I have never seen such a complete refusal to face facts. The times were:- Modeyra 1.38.89 Antoniola 1.38.37 St Nicholas Abbey 1.39.62 (Sat) Taffy, as Howellsy pointed out, you are comparing times on different days. On my figs, times were at least 2 secs per mile quicker on Friday. Not only that, the 1m races on Friday were on the round track, so just not comparable with Sat's straight mile RP Trophy |
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Pb
The standard time for 8f over the round course is 0.4 secs more than for the straight 8f. Therefore SNAs time is even less good. According to Raceform there was only 1.5 mm of rain overnight. Leviathons time of 1.26.03 in the first was faster than 2 of the 7f times on the Friday. This seems at odds with your view that the Friday times were 2 secs quicker. If rain had got into the ground significantly as the afternoon progressed, how come Hunterviews time for the 4.05 was at 2.32.82 only 0.82 outside the standard and faster than the 10f and 14f times on the Friday for the respective standards. |
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King Nick talks sense.............no-one else seems to be of late on this thread,all of this point nought of a second faster on this day or point nought of of second slower that day so that proves SNA is a dodgy bet and can't win.Dont you all think you are looking far too hard,that fact is its staring you right in the face,imo most of you know this, only a few weeks away then all questions will be answered.
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Taffy did you notice that SNA came from off the pace and beat all the other (previously well thought of) horses convincingly? Had he made the pace I could understand your argument- though I'd always disagree with comparing times on two different courses on two different days.
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Well said PD, exactly why I started this. I also think it could be a 20+ field this year and so I'm not making any serious bets until I see the draw.
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Will SNA be ridden in the same style come Guineas day ? Coming from the back of the field proved a disaster for backers of Ravens Pass (:
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"Dont you all think you are looking far too hard,that fact is its staring you right in the face,imo most of you know this, only a few weeks away then all questions will be answered."
Yes indeed it will - for this race. However if we continually back 5/2 shots that represent poor value then we will be skint. Some will win, most will lose, I think SNA is a poor 5/2 shot and so wont be backing him.....and if he wins at Newmarket then I still wont think it was a good 5/2 shot. |
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Well thats fine by me .............you just sit back and watch,I think you will see something to remember for a long time.
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And you may be right....but at 5/2 I wont be backing on your say so.
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If the ground is G-F, O Brien runs more than 3, and there is a big field for the Guineas , he may drift in the betting 7-2 or 4-1.
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Come Guineas day if I can get 6/1 or better then I may back.
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Guy's just been on U-tube watching both SNA and Canford Cliffs races from last season. Def not a 2 horse race but can't wait to see if SNA has still got the trademark burst of speed when the accelerator's pressed, and can Canford Cliffs put that last race over in France behind him. Only 4 weeks on Saturday till the Guineas. Anybody any thoughts ??????
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Shark 6s.
Living in a dream world. SNA will only shorten if you think 5/2 its a good lay . Wait till gns day he willl be 7/4 ish |