Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National

Oscar Tme spifflespaffle sniffsnaff

superb reasoning.

:D :x

:)

Does anyone know the rules on the raising of the weights here? My feeling is that they go to 11-7 if the topweight comes out, which would mean a rise of 4lbs if Siegemaster runs? No guessers please, I know they go to 11-10 in the UK but I think Ireland is different.

Anyboby going NR-NB yet?

Good News :-

Fairyhouse's four-day Easter meeting is due to get going on Sunday as planned after the course passed a 2pm inspection this afternoon.

The track has improved over the last 24 hours and a dry day means it is now fit for racing.

However, due to an adverse weather forecast the situation will be closely monitored over the coming days. The going remains heavy.

The highlight of the four days is Monday's Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National.

Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National S'ch (Grade A) €141,000.00 ( 3m 5f - 5yo+ )
1 Siegemaster(148) (DTHughes) DNRussell(B) 11,07
2 Church Island(143) (MHourigan) .(B) 11,02
3 Equus Maximus(143) (WPMullins) . 11,02
4 Ambobo (USA)(141) (MBrassil) PWFlood(T) 11,00
5 Oscar Time(141) (MMLynch) RMPower 11,00
6 Dancing Tornado(140) (MHourigan) . 10,13
7 One Cool Cookie(140) (CFSwan) KMDonoghue(7)(B)(T) 10,13
8 Ballytrim(139) (WPMullins) . 10,12
9 Whatuthink(139) (OMcKiernan) PFMangan(7) 10,12
10 Flintoff (USA)(138) (MissVWilliams (in GB)) .(B) 10,11
11 Moskova(138) (PNolan) BJGeraghty 10,11
12 Telenor (GB)(137) (JTRDreaper) .(T) 10,10
13 Alpha Ridge(135) (PNolan) APCawley(T) 10,08
14 Officier De Reserve (FR)(133) (MissVWilliams (in GB)) . 10,06
15 Hangover(132) (CO'Dwyer) NJO'Shea(3) 10,05
16 A New Story(131) (MHourigan) . 10,04
17 Across The Bay(131) (NMeade) . 10,04
18 Beckett Rock(131) (MFMorris) NPMadden 10,04
19 Double Dizzy (GB)(131) (RHBuckler (in GB)) NathanSweeney(7)(B)(T) 10,04
20 Operation Houdini(131) (DEFitzgerald) SWFlanagan(B) 10,04
21 Bluesea Cracker(130) (JMotherway) AndrewJMcNamara 10,03
22 Knock On The Head(130) (ALTMoore) MPWalsh 10,03
23 Selection Box(130) (CAMcBratney) EJO'Connell(7) 10,03
24 Stewarts House(129) (ALTMoore) . 10,02
25 Pomme Tiepy (FR)(128) (WPMullins) . 10,01
26 Saddlers Storm(128) (AJMartin) . 10,01
27 Will Jamie Run(128) (PStafford) CDMaxwell(3) 10,01
28 Bronte Bay(127) (PWFlynn) .(C) 10,00
29 Leanne(126) (WHarney) . 9,13
30 Agus A Vic(125) (PMartin) APThornton(3) 9,12

Saddlers Storm -1pt e/w @ 13/2 (BOG) PP
Agus A Vic - 0.5pt e/w @ 50/1 VC

WILL JAMIE RUN

not a single quote online so far, love it! quiet stables, gotta love em.
value has been maintained and is still incredible value.

watched some of its past races and it could well be suited to a trip like this. maybe 9yo but had a long break (assume due to injury) and been a totally different animal since changing stables.

on the upgrade and two recent hurdle spins have been very decent. 3rd last time but was actually disputing 1st place going over the last hurdle and only lost on the run in!

moskova won that day but carried 7lb less than WILL JAMIE RUN. my selection is better over fences and has a 20lb swing in the weights with that rival for this race!

40-1 on here, madness! this horse even beat Oscar Time last season and has a weight advantage again over that rival so should confirm that form as it has improved loads this winter.

Beckett rock for me, still a novice really but jumps safely and quickly enough, gets in on a nice light weight, not yet proven at the distance, but his brother didn't do too badly last year. It's said he'd like better ground but he's won on heavy, and at the prices he'll do for me.

bluesea cracker looks the bet still

loves r/h tracks 13 runs 3 wins 4 places

won on the course

andy mac up

cracking run lto

stat fit

like moscova too

any opines?

Ballytrim for me. Have thought he'd be a National horse since last year and he managed to win at Naas the last day despite not pleasing Willie Mullins in the lead-up to the race. Defo think he is the one and it's just a pity that he didn't get into the Aintree National coz I really fancied him for that!

Have backed B/C myself. Plat, can Andy Mac do 10-3?

Looking through BC's form I just had a slight ? about about the trip on this ground. On better ground i'd be all over him but if it is indeed heavy i'm not so sure...

3 against the field for me, 2 of which are out of left-field:
1. Agus A Vic
2. Alpha Ridge
3. Leanne

Prosp - would welcome your thoughts on AAV?

Snaffled some 50s today but in all honesty I only backed him because he qualified on Deep's stats. Finding it very difficult to get a feel for how competitve he's likely to be in this.

Fits the trends for a start, they'll all be giving him weight too.
Best hunter chaser in Ireland for my money.
Suspect his mark is lenient too. His Punchestown 2nd last year (arguably unlucky) has worked out - Baby Run has gone and won a Foxhunters, Southwestern won the big Stratford race NTO. Not only that, it has been shown up well in handicaps - Anothercoppercoast (12ls back in 5th) was 4th in a Galway Plate and won a good Leopardstown race off 123, Backstage (19ls back in 7th) won 2 good handicaps afterwards and is now rated 148, albeit on contrasting ground. Agus A Vic is rated 125 here.
His last effort was a bit flat but he was given enough to do and the race has worked out well with Kilty Storm, Ballistraw, Travino and Dusty Doolan all running well since. It's worth forgiving him that slightly below-par effort as he's bounced back well in the past from poor runs.
Very consistent, never out of the front three in completed Irish starts though obviously won't have raced against anything like the calibre he faces here.
Seriously over-priced.

alpha sniff

^

dog

Backed AAV @40/1 and Blue Sea Cracker yesterday after looking at Deep's stats.

See AAV down to as low as 16/1 now.

Cheers Deep.

Cheers for your thoughts Prosp. Spotted the form with Baby Run but still wasn't sure about his other efforts in the context of this. As you say, overpriced (seemingly on the original assumption he wouldn't make the cut but since he did the firms have been a bit slow to react).

bluesea cracker had oscar time covered before he exited when they raced last year and thats top class form for me

was impressed how bc stayed on lto hfc?

Better ground that day compared to what's forecast for Monday though? Looking through his form I just wasn't sure about him seeing out the trip if indeed it does come up heavy. Wouldn't be the first time i'm wrong though ;)

its a doubt alright

what about moscova?

Have backed WJR ew@25s so far, and had a few nibbles at 4 or 5 of the bottom weights at prices.
Pomme Tiepy, Stewarts House, Bluesea Cracker & Double Dizzy.

Fwiw - the fav is the perfect Trends Pick.

Stats say too much weight but not looked closely at form... with the ground as it is and with the trend for lightly weighted horses I'm not looking above 10-8 personally.

cant get that top of the rock race out of my head. big field; last fence faller boots in at xmas who she had covered and pulled away from the field on heavy ground at limerick?

and lto gave her all to a an out and out stayer in ballytrim?

hmmm

Thoughts on One Cool Cookie plat & lads? has 10-13 minus his 7lbs claim, very inexperienced pilot though. :|

Also A New Story - has a top 7lbs claimer up, twice been placed in this and although he has a few stats to overcome, he never runs a poor race.

can see ans placing

dont think occ stays?

Yeah trip does look a ?, also jockey putting me off OOC.

likes down royal too much too,

anyone have an opine on moskova ffs X-(

11 Moskova(138) (PNolan) - BJGeraghty... 10,11 age positive but trainer negative; her running style means that shes likely to prove best in smaller fields, tending to tail herself off; fields of 12 or more (jumps only):51848F38283325; 11 runners or fewer (jumps only):1131115121; there would also be doubt over how well-treated she is, her chase wins all having come in mares races against the same horses (Leanne, Tally Em Up); bit of a talking horse as shes a prolific winner and has been well placed but this doesnt look her ideal sort of race NO

Moskova - hits all the trends, bar weight 10-11, and yet to win a 3m+chase, has won a 3m Hurdle though. Too many below her in the weights that catch my eye to be backing her.

Time form says ..

Siegemaster (IRE)
Grade 2 winner who posted a couple of really good efforts when placed in valuable handicaps in December/January. Below best last time, though, and jumping always an underlying concern.
Church Island (IRE)
Patchy record in last few years but won veterans' event at Doncaster last term and career-high when second in Irish National. Seemingly lined up for repeat bid but is now 9 lb higher in weights.
Equus Maximus (IRE)
Useful form when beating Tranquil Sea in valuable novice handicap at Punchestown in May. Very disappointing all 3 starts since but booking of Ruby Walsh catches the eye and trip should suit.
Ambobo (USA)
Rather hit and miss in recent seasons but as good as ever when winning handicap at Punchestown in May. Not given hard time either start on return so can't be written off despite career-high mark.
Oscar Time (IRE)
Still going the right way as a chaser, impressive when winning the valuable Paddy Power handicap at Leopardstown in December. Shaped well over hurdles since but stamina needs to be taken on trust.
Dancing Tornado (IRE)
Done some repair work to his strike rate this term, winning chases at Wexford and Limerick (Grade 2) and handicap hurdle at Naas (strong form). Unlikely to be suited by this sort of test, though.
One Cool Cookie (IRE)
Prominently-ridden sort who has some creditable efforts to his name this term, including hard-fought win in minor event at Down Royal, and isn't badly treated. Yet to conclusively prove he stays.
Ballytrim (IRE)
Not the most consistent (has been let down by jumping) but still going the right way when everything comes together, battling well to win at Naas in March. Trip and ground will suit, too.
Whatuthink (IRE)
Showed up well in top company over hurdles and looked good chasing prospect when scoring at Thurles. Not built on that since, often hindered by jumping, and hard to make a case for in this.
Flintoff (USA)
Unreliable sort, though placed in several long-distance events, including 2009 Midlands National at Uttoxeter. Pulled up in Welsh National on reappearance (only outing for Tim Vaughan).
Moskova (IRE)
Prolific winner of mares chases in last couple of seasons, including at Grade 3 level at Clonmel in November. Won minor event over hurdles last time, too, but doubts about her at this trip.
Telenor
Lightly-raced sort who has quickly made up into a useful staying chaser, winning Grade 2 at Navan in February. Open to further progression as stamina is drawn out but stable form a slight worry.
1 Alpha Ridge (IRE)
Classy novice hurdler in 2008/9 (won 4 times) and likely to prove just as good over fences, 7 lengths second to Pandorama in the Drinmore in December. Type to relish a slog in the mud and respected.
Officier De Reserve (FR)
Still quite lightly raced and fourth in 2008 Welsh National. Didn't shape too badly on first start for this yard at Cheltenham and dropped to a potentially handy mark. No forlorn hope.
Hangover (IRE)
Progressive over hurdles last term, winning 3 times, and at least matched that form when second in quite valuable handicap at Gowran. On the downside, he's 9 lb higher now and ran poorly last time.
3 A New Story (IRE)
Veteran who ended long barren spell when taking cross-country handicap at Cheltenham in March. Made frame in this race on 3 of last 4 years and partnered by promising 7 lb claimer as well.
Across The Bay (IRE)
Bumper winner who progressed well over hurdles last term and has looked a bright chasing prospect so far, winning at Naas before a close second at Navan. Unexposed as a stayer as well.
Beckett Rock (IRE)
Fairly useful novice hurdler in 2008/9 and already as good over fences, winning maiden chase at Limerick in December and third in novice at Naas last time. Faces a stiff task here, however.
Double Dizzy
Useful chaser who wore blinkers when good second at Kempton in February and has made the frame in handicaps off this sort of mark in the past. Does have a tendency to find little, though.
Operation Houdini (IRE)
Mud-lover who won handicap chase at Galway for second successive year in October and has since won twice over hurdles. These conditions will suit and mark still reasonable but his jumping is a worry.
Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
Consistent/game mare who won a Grade 2 chase at Limerick in 2008/9 and ran a cracker when second in Leinster National last time (closely weighted with Ballytrim).
Knock On The Head (IRE)
Won a handicap at Gowran in 2008/9 and improved to finish second to Ballyholland in Galway Plate. Yet to make much of an impact for new yard and will only be of interest if positive in market.
Selection Box (IRE)
Versatile type who improved steadily in 2008/9 (won 3 times) and has got back on the up when placed on last 2 starts. Creeping up the weights but is probably still a bit overpriced.
Stewarts House (IRE)
Quickly showed himself a better chaser than hurdler in 2008/9 and carried on progressing this term, winning competitive handicap at Leopardstown last time. 7 lb rise not sure to stop him.
Pomme Tiepy (FR)
Multiple graded winner as novice in 2007/8. Not at best this winter, for all Cheltenham sixth wasn't devoid of promise, and still to prove she has the stamina to cope with a test like this.
2 Saddlers Storm (IRE)
Progressed well since switched to handicap chases, completing hat-trick at Navan in March in very taking fashion. Looks sure to do better yet, with this longer trip a plus, and shortlisted.
Will Jamie Run (IRE)
Much improved since joining current yard, successful 4 times (took advantage of lower hurdles mark at Fairyhouse in February) and a good third here last time. Very unlikely to stay this far, however.
Bronte Bay (IRE)
Much improved over fences when fourth to Saddlers Storm in competitive handicap at Navan last time. Off similar mark and appeals as a likely stayer but tricky to catch right.
Leanne (IRE)
Splendidly reliable performer who ran a cracker in valuable staying handicap at Leopardstown over Christmas. Latest effort just confirmed that she's paying the price for her consistency, though.
Agus a Vic (IRE)
Smart hunter chaser who looked as good as ever when winning readily in December. Not quite at his best when only third at Leopardstown last time but not badly weighted for his belated handicap bow.

ok cheers

Bit of a plunge on AAV, didn't actually back it myself :|

Are they confident this will still go ahead ?

all the last 10 had run at least 3 times that season

Can't believe the money still coming for AAV... fascinating to see how he gets on in this.

I have to admit to dropping an almighty gonad with this race! I only run a 10pt bank and when I'd had too much guinness the other night I put 5 of them on Beckett Rock to win. I think I had the vague idea that I would lay some back when the price contracted as in my befuddled state I expected it to do. When I awoke the market was suspended and the I realised the new market was open, and I had no way to lay back my 5pts! I've admitted it to the mrs, and she said I should put some more money in the account to lay back the 5pts. Unfortunately there is no time to organise the required mortgage to do so!

Be great if he won though...

BJs for life I reckon! :D

:^0

If he wins I'm not sure I'll have the energy to face the consequences!

Just pray Mrs.TM is not of the same mind as Lorena Bobbitt :0

Long ago I set a household rule that she is not allowed near any sharp implements!

:^0

IGN,final selections.

Ambobo
Officer de Reserve
Leanne
Bluesea Cracker. gl all ;)

NO BET

gl

Just a small bet each way with B.365 (5 places) on Officier de Reserve who comes here a fresh horse, whether he gets home is another matter

Across the Bay price continues to tumble. ^ year old and only 2 chase starts but if any of you get tucked into the form of his last race he could be a stone well in

pouring over this still and getting more and more confused! Flintoff, Whatuthink, Bluesea Cracker and Telenor seem ones i can't dismiss easily and with some value in the price

Whatuthink is interesting as surely not far off Alpha Ridge, has won a chase and is more than double the price....must be well handicapped and an extra 7lbs off, ran with a bit of sparkle last time over too short....claimer seems a good one but he can throw in stinkers...

Flintoff, loves a slog, placed in two nationals and run well here before, can throw in a stinker too but under best conditions has a fighting weight, offputting that stable jock chose other raider but surely for a national type who goes well fresh he looks a bit big?

Bluesea Cracker, lightly raced novice with a good weight, chase form in the book ( already g2 winner ) over staying trips, jockey is wasting to ride her and surprised to see such a big price

Telenor, looks a slightly lesser version of Notre, a big staying type, excellent recent form and trainer has this race in his pocket so must be respected, 12s is perhaps a bit short but of the principles I prefer the chances of this grade 2 winner...

Seigemaster has all the class but all the weight and the way the ground was so dead today has put me off his chances...still at 2os plus he can hit the frame...

....will sleep on it now! and probably change my mind tomorrow!

A New Story seems very good value EW at 25s with his confident, talented and stylish young claimer trying to follow up his Festival success. Placed twice before in this, that Cheltenham victory might prove a nice confidence boost. He's been ridden much more up with the pace lately which seems to have helped rekindle his enthusiasm and I'd expect to see him in close touch from the outset.

Operation Houdini e.w. 33-1.
Not badly h'capped and a fresh horse, just the hurdle run this year. Always gonna be a worry with his jumping but has been running okay otherwise.

Double Dizzy

75 on here looks huge. Last year`s winning stable , promising 7llb claimer.

Bluesea Cracker for me. Looks to have as good a chance as a lot of horses that are much shorter. Should be no problems about trip, acts on the ground and the jockey booking is a big plus.

Steeplechasing, like the look of yours so making him my second bet in the race. Soft ground could help and he's no penalty for winning the Cross Country race.

Will jamie run / Telenor 4 me here ..... conclusive as ever !!

Ambobo for myself, high mark yes but giving fare quiet time of it last 2 runs, should be okay on conditions

fav for me with low weight in a bog

Added,A New Story to place @7,gl.

Telenor looks very interesting based on the form with Jadanli last time out. Conditions should suit and the one for me at the top of the market. Cannot understand why Oscar Time is so big though.

have chosen church island and will jamie run
both can jump well which is essential on this ground
and especially this course.
church island has good winning form over 3m on s/h
wjr has form on this ground and is improving and
i think the trip will be fine contrary to timeform's view
and curch island has form in this race too.
gl.

150.0 and 26.0 the prices

also noting that church island has 7lb claimer
putting his mark on 136 and he's a capable 152 horse
imo. huge price but out of form is why i suppose.

if it was good ground then one cool cookie would be in top three.
enough!

Hangover@20,brontebay@55

Laddies doind a
MEGA sales
Currently

They dont know the winner
EITHER

;)

Don't know if anyone's done the trends and cba looking tbh, so done it myself

Last Ten Years

10/10 not rated higher than 136
9/10 winners aged 7-9
9/10 winners had won over24f (Butler's Cabin hadn't but won over 33f at Cheltenham, Hear The Echo won over 24f in a point to point if that counts :D)
10/10 between 3 and 7 runs that season

Applying these you get (I think ;\):

Alpha Ridge
Hangover
Saddler's Storm


Hangover's stable way out of sorts, Saddler's Storm has gone up a lot in the weights for his last few wins, and i'm prepared to take him on at the prices with ALPHA RIDGE, who would appear to tick all the boxes and won't mind the ground

I know a few of you are on him, so sorry for bokking your bet :p

Hope you're right FFT, I backed him at 25's early last week :)

FFT, check my post on the 1st page YDC

Don't know if anyone's done the trends and cba looking tbh, so done it myself

:p at least we come to the same conclusion ;)

Hope you're right with Alpha anyway mate :p ;)

me too :|

Get a room ffs. ;\

downy reported

Will Jamie Run E/W for me.

WD plat!

quality tipping there plat...convinced me to have a dabble

Deep Impact had him in his trends post, 23 March, top top work.

Very well done to Deep,thanks a million!

Followed your stats,on Blue Sea @33/1(not aftertiming,it's on the thread,honest!).

Outstanding..outstanding....a crate of beer for that one!!.:-)

Kudos Deep. :)

Thanks Plat and Deep Impact - great tipping!

Well done guys.

the stats prove right again.

Great to see a few lads were on & took some off those nasty bookies :)

Platinni will be larging it at the track (Nap) :^0

Well done plat and Deep and Melottie and all winners - great stuff

Would like to thank Deep and Plat for putting me on this,thanks lads ;)

top work innit :D

WP Deep and Plat :D

plat = legend (again)

Deep and Plat wd fellas.... :-)

Well done lads, seems everyone was on this, Deep, Plat , Nibbles. FFT. Doogs and anyone I missed.

Not me soul :( was on Oscar :_|

yeah me :D

Yes well, thought Alpha Ridge had won going by comments on page I read. When I looked at result seen one of mine was placed didn't take in the winner. Came on here ,seen Deep had it and picked the wrong one. Worrying I can't get the winner even after the race.

_royboy_ 05 Apr 17:19
plat = legend (again)

SIGNED

Well played lads ;)

Excellent work!

WD to Deep as well. Picked it a week in advance and of course Trev who was on at 66/1!!

**g h3ll!

:)

Soul D. V.D.W. said never ask a horse to do something it has never done before. Alpha had not won over fences.

Nice one guys.

I wish I had read the whole thread had a quick scout for trends pre race and only seen Far from Troubles trends. Serves me right for skipping to last page!

GREAT TIPPING EARLY DOORS DEEP IMPACT 33/1 HOPE U WON FEW £!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!