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rhinestone
27 Oct 09 20:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 933 | Blogger: rhinestone's blog
Fancy this fella for the 2010 National. Very pleased to see Mullins confirm the race as his target recently, and glad I got him added to the market before he said this.
Has always looked a National horse to me. He'll still only be 8 years old come the race, which I know a lot of people will put against him, but he was running big races in long distance handicap chases as a 6 year old. He's won over 3m5f and 3m6f as a 6 year old. The National trip should be right up his street. He has bags of experience already in these type's of races, therefore if he runs over hurdles all season to preserve his mark it won't be too much of a bother. Also any ground comes alike to him. I'm willing to forgive him his one disapointing run in the Irish...but this could be a blessing in disguise for his handicap mark.

Rated about 140 which looks perfect...last 3 years bottom weights are below:-

2009 - 139
2008 - 137
2007 - 134

And we all know how much JP & AP want to win the National, it looks very much like they've got the horse to give it a bloody good go. They've certainly got the trainer.

Anyone else fancy him? Or think i'm just crazy? :)

I got a bit excited at seeing all the big prices and went for the lot, it's not very often you can get 3 figure price's about a strong fancy so thought i'd go for it. Also had some on the other one and some e-way @ 50/1. Also if anyone fancies laying me anymore 70 ish let me know...

Arbor Supreme

70 £20.00 £1,380.00
Ref: Bet matched:

75 £10.00 £740.00
Ref: Bet matched:

80 £23.84 £1,883.36
Ref: Bet matched:

90 £10.00 £890.00
Ref: Bet matched:

110 £31.20 £3,400.80
Ref: Bet matched:

120 £11.27 £1,341.13
Ref: Bet matched:

130 £11.99 £1,546.71
Ref: Bet matched:

140 £1.70 £236.30
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Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:37 PM GMT
yeah i fancy him strongly, and picked him out after this years national as a potential winner

The only slight quirk i've got with him, is that he's very much a hold-up horse and this proved problems in the irish gn

Having said that we know, exactly on the day, if he has got a great chance as Ruby would be on board
Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:38 PM GMT
sorry forgot jp owns him, in that case mccoy would be on board
Report rhinestone October 27, 2009 8:38 PM GMT
Yes, I would love Ruby aboard.
Report Academic Rambler October 27, 2009 8:40 PM GMT
lots of GN potential rhino fo'sho

only thing is, he hasn't put in a performance in one of the key "class" races, if you're into that kind of thing..
Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:41 PM GMT
i think he'll be over in england at some point during the winter, think willie mullins said he may go for the hennessy last year - he needs the better ground which he will get at aintree
Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:43 PM GMT
AR,
I'm definitely one for the trends, he only needs one more 3m+ win. We know how strong the GN trends are
Report rhinestone October 27, 2009 8:43 PM GMT
Yeah Mullins has said he may mix it over fences and hurdles...I just wondered if he may just stay over hurdles and risk getting in at the bottom as he is now, rather than winning something and going up half a stone.
Report Academic Rambler October 27, 2009 8:44 PM GMT
kwality, more than that isn't it? winners have won or placed in one of the nationals/hennessy/rsa etc..?
Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:46 PM GMT
yeah, could be a possibility, and he'll go the same route as Hedgehunter and target the Bobbyjo in Feb after the weights are out

Like i said though - just not sure with him as he needs to be held up and will have to have a lot of luck in-running at aintree
Report rhinestone October 27, 2009 8:46 PM GMT
Does the Thyestes count AR? :p Placed in that.
Report Academic Rambler October 27, 2009 8:47 PM GMT
:p
Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:51 PM GMT
AR
Key races include top3 in Irish, scots, welsh Gn, top 5 hennessy or Gold cup.
Top 2 in becher or topham (not too sure on latter)
this covers most winners

Alternatively 3, 24f+ wins. one being over 28f

I'll post the rest of the stats up, when theres a decent thread for the GN

Would like to hear news on mr pointment who would be well handicapped now to win the national
Report rhinestone October 27, 2009 8:54 PM GMT
My thread not got enough quality, kwality? :p

Feel free to whack some stats on here, or alternatively and stats that Arbor doesn't meet!
Report kwality October 27, 2009 8:58 PM GMT
he meets them at the moment, just needs another 24f + win, he just need to hit the seasonal stats ater that, run inside 48 days, 4-6 season runs, OR 136-148 etc

Thats why i'm keeping an eye on him - the stats don't lie in the national, they worked this year and there was still a 100/1 winner
Report Academic Rambler October 27, 2009 9:04 PM GMT
I think the "key race" signifier is crucial but not sure the number of wins at 3m+ is, as they could be any old race and not an indicator of class.
Report kwality October 27, 2009 9:07 PM GMT
AR
there are more stats to add to that like a class 1 top 3 finish.
Think there is about 15 in total - and they always narrow the race down to 1 or 2, the two that hit this year was Rambling Minster and Mon Mome
Report Academic Rambler October 27, 2009 9:09 PM GMT
I know :p just remember the class race signifier being crucial, over and above a horse without that but with a few 3m+ wins, which don't indicate he's good enough or not, just that he'll stay the trip.
Report Me2 October 27, 2009 9:38 PM GMT
kwality 27 Oct 21:51
Would like to hear news on mr pointment who would be well handicapped now to win the national


Mr Pointment was mentioned in a thread a few weeks ago. Apparently is now owned by the Wilsons, which would indicate that the National might be on the agenda.

My own nagging remembrance was that he was going Point-to-Pointing, but that may have been another horse.


I've got my own 2010 Grand National thread going, though I winced at some of the stuff I wrote in April and May when I just re-read it. (Why the hell would I be interested in Finger Onthe Pulse?)

http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/trends-research-notebooks/2010-grand-national-portfolio-t76901.html
Report savaloy69. October 27, 2009 11:18 PM GMT
Sold to P.Murphy 18,000 at dbs mr pointment.
Report rhinestone January 7, 2010 9:12 PM GMT
Thought i'd bring this back up with the big day getting closer.

Pretty pleased with his first run back over hurdles to blow the cobwebs away...another one or two hurdle races (if we ever race again) then a race over fences after the weights are announced would be just nice.
He's been entered in a few English races in the meantime: Hennessy, Welsh and a Chelenham race, with his h'cap mark being 142 for each, which I reckon is pretty much perfect. Mon Mome off 161 would give Arbor 10st 5lb, so you can see why Willie is running over hurdles!

Backed him again on here in the meantime and also now some 40/1 at laddies...need to stop now though, done a bit too much.

Of the other's obviously Dream Alliance now enters the equation, but having gone up 9lb for his Welsh win that may be just a step too far. A bit disapointing Gone To Lunch was only dropped 1lb after being pulled up at halfway, compared to being dropped 2lb's for running 5th in one of the best Hennessy's for a while...can't work it out. Still think he's on a fair mark for the trip though, but most likely AP will be on a JP horse, maybe mine.

Big Fella ran a nice race back, I know a few fancy him...must be pleased with his comeback run.

The race is really going to shape up in the next month with just a matter of time before something goes towards 12/1 ish fav.
Report nibbledat January 7, 2010 9:13 PM GMT
bit concerned hes only had the one run so far
Report rhinestone January 7, 2010 9:21 PM GMT
Yep nibbledat, though don't you think he'll get another few in?
Report nibbledat January 7, 2010 9:22 PM GMT
aye prob looking at feb now and then maybe chelt thereafter
Report rhinestone January 7, 2010 9:23 PM GMT
What's your main fancy at this stage?
Report nibbledat January 7, 2010 9:26 PM GMT
backed church island and joe lively so far but arbor is on my radar given he has a run or two.
like dream alliance butground would be a worry for that one

what about you ?:|
Report rhinestone January 7, 2010 9:31 PM GMT
I've got a bit on Church Island, traded a nice bet on Niche Market a while back, just not sure he's going to campaign him right. GTL has to have a big chance although not sure he's running? I think if they had looked after Don't Push It with this race in mind he'd have had a big chance, probably too high in the h'cap now, but looks to need the trip nowadays. Ballytrim, but would need to win again to get in.
Report nibbledat January 7, 2010 9:33 PM GMT
aye GTL was the other one but has you say, scottish national seems the more likely option. going to aintree for the first time this year so i need to have the winner :^0
Report rhinestone January 7, 2010 9:35 PM GMT
Only been once before myself, not for the National though.
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 7:58 PM BST
All sorted now, layed off, be mad not to in the National, need loads of luck but i'm due some.

Starting to get nervous now, would be my biggest win.

Managed to get £212.91 on here @ average odds 76.39, and £19.08 @ average 63.9 on the daq.
£25 e-way @ 50/1
£200 win, £25 e-way @ 40/1
£100 win, £25 e-way @ 33/1

Layed for a risk free £19,000 ish bet, just praying he gets a clear run so there's no excuses and if he get's stuffed it's my fault I could handle that.
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:01 PM BST
Fook me Rhinestone I thought my 7.5K was alot :^0

Best of luck ;)
Report lordnoise April 4, 2010 8:01 PM BST
Now we know why he drifted ...
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:04 PM BST
lordnoise, I did put a £500 lay up @ 16.5 once, within an hour he was 21 :| lemmings sheep, whatever you want to call em everywhere. Anyway just drip fed it in, in the end.
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:05 PM BST
RS :0 ery nice sir :D
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:06 PM BST
you going ??
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:07 PM BST
Last year I had a free bet on Offshore Account to win 21K (backed on daq @ 550)

I must admit I got a bit jiggy when he came there cruising a mile out, sadly thats when the petrol ran out :(
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:09 PM BST
Nope, never fancied it really. Been for the friday a few years ago coz I had a runner, and did think it was a class place. Will probably get to the National one year, maybe next year as a mate is on about having his stag do there, however if I've got bet's like this next year, I'd rather watch it on TV. Are you going?

If any of you good lads are in the Teesside area next saturday, drinks on me :D
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:10 PM BST
You backed him in the Topham TV? Ran another cracker in the WH Chase at Chelters, must have been leading about the 2m6f mark?
Report lordnoise April 4, 2010 8:11 PM BST
LOLOL :) - love it rhinestone !!!
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:12 PM BST
no...we go to lingfield & watch it in the restaurant...generally try to smash b.dennis on the day.
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:12 PM BST
Will do Rhinestone trip should suit

Will back him a long with Plaisir D'Estruval if he turns up
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:13 PM BST
Trev :^0

Im at Elland Road next week :(

Skyplus it and watch it when I get back
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:14 PM BST
Never beem to Lingy either trev, I did have an ambition to go to every racecourse....only on about 25! :^0
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:16 PM BST
Elland Road TV :( I have bad memories of that place, when we went down, and Juninho was crying on the pitch, I was crying in the stand :( was only about 15 then though so i'm not that much of a baby :^0
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:16 PM BST
Rhinestone

I have bad memories every week :^0
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:16 PM BST
one yr...four of us skinned him with ghengis(bowen ) @ 16s in a hurdle @ aintree.

the following week he was on the morning line...ghengis was running again..and he bismarked it

:^0 must have still been hurting
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:18 PM BST
you a geordie RS ?
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:19 PM BST
He owes me trev, only ever had one bet with him, at Chelters one year we piled on Stormez when he got ran out of it after the last. It was remarkable he ever got to the front though, must have been pushed along for the first 3 1/2 miles.
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:19 PM BST
Geordie! If I knew how to do the angry face I would...

No a smoggie.
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:20 PM BST
FFS

Go to the Aintree forum and read the My Will drift thread.

WTF??
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:21 PM BST
is that boro ??

i only ask..cuz i thought all you lot cry @ the footy :^0
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:21 PM BST
TV, just looked at the Leeds table! Didn't realise they'd let it slip that much...
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:21 PM BST
Aye boro
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:23 PM BST
The 'William' bit TV? :^0
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:24 PM BST
Rhinestone

Were gash, no point putting it any other way.
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:25 PM BST
its just a roll over from chelts...cant read all the bullsh it & fantasists
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:27 PM BST
You weren't gash when u beat Man U in the cup TV. I was laughing early on had Beckford to score first and Man U to win 2-1 and 3-1 think they were 80's and 125's :^0

I take it you won't be backing em in the play-offs (if they don't go up of course)
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:27 PM BST
you backing in the irish n. tomm RS?
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:29 PM BST
That's a sore subject trev. I had an e-way double Penitent 5/1 and The Midnight Club 20/1, then a trixie with Arbor in as well :| I'm just going to have a look at the race now... you had out?
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:32 PM BST
I never back us Rhinestone, could make a fortune laying us though.
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:33 PM BST
nothing serious...VW one ODR is interesting on his old welsh nat. form..
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:34 PM BST
A bit gutted I didn't take the big prices for Alpha Ridge in the Irish. After his 2nd run in a novice chase this season, I said to our dad that's next year's Welsh National horse...tomorrows race is just like the Welsh now with the ground, 8/1 ish now though :|
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:37 PM BST
Interesting one trev. That was a good 4th and still young.
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:38 PM BST
over 300 up on here @ 11.5
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:40 PM BST
yeah...140 back then 133 / 10.6 looks good if he's spot on...would like to know if this has been the plan all season...
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:43 PM BST
Ah so there is, only looked at the post forecast, been putting finishing touches on my Masters bets. Toat only one with 10's. 25 yours, thought it may have been bigger. Church Island rank outsider...a lot fancied him for the English...66's with one 20 at lads :^0 jokers.
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:44 PM BST
It looks like it may have trev...that Cheltenham run last time is better than it looks on paper as well.
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:48 PM BST
fancied CI for ours..not sure he'll see it out in those conditions tomm...big price though
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:48 PM BST
Did my masters bets yesterday:

Westwood E/W 33/1
Campbell E/W 150/1
Scott E/W 100/1
Allenby E/W 90/1
Goosen E/W 33/1
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:52 PM BST
Good price on Westy TV ;) 23's now, although he's not doing too well again today.

Had £50 e-way on Kaymer at 125/1 in about October, think he's top class and will win many majors, what a sound guy as well spoke to him at the Ryder Cup when he was just walking round after he dropped out the places coz his mam died :(
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:52 PM BST
you had a look at across the bay in the irish....form ties in with your midnight hoss....and jadalini given him a right form boost today...if stays..looks v.well h/capd.
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:54 PM BST
Backed him E/W @ 33/1
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:54 PM BST
tv kaymar or ATB :0
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:55 PM BST
ATB
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 8:56 PM BST
Looks good trev! Only 2 chases and only a 6yo but like the comments briefly outpaced last time, over 3m on heavy so looks like he might need the trip.
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:57 PM BST
On Matt Kuchar in the Shelll E/W @ 5's just picked up a birdie @ 13 going to be touch and go for the place money
Report trev w April 4, 2010 8:58 PM BST
think i'm down in the golf this week...but qualified in the golf comp :)
Report Terry Venables April 4, 2010 8:59 PM BST
Trev

Just got back into it

Just dipped my toe this week

Gives you something to watch Sunday nights :^0
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 9:04 PM BST
Kuchar's good, wouldn't be suprised to see him show up next week.

I was 2nd in the golf comp a few year ago but aint really had the time to syudy it enough lately with the lead up to chelters etc.

By the way just took the 33/1 as well :)
Report Charlton2005 April 4, 2010 9:04 PM BST
Super shout Rhine

No one is going to be saying anything about aftertiming if this comes home. The best of luck to you.

:)
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 9:06 PM BST
Thankyou Charlton2005.
Report trev w April 4, 2010 9:10 PM BST
wont be up much longer wiv billys
Report rhinestone April 4, 2010 9:12 PM BST
Just gone now trev...glad you mentioned it, Jad was impressive today, and he gave it a good go last time.
Report cantspell April 5, 2010 11:31 AM BST
people keen to lay this one this morning
Report Biscar Two from a mile back April 5, 2010 11:33 AM BST
last price matched 36 looks a nr
Report rhinestone April 5, 2010 11:37 AM BST
Hope it's just the lemming again :| tempted to put a ton up at 30 to find out for sure...coz I need to know :|
Report trev w April 5, 2010 11:39 AM BST
tense moments RS,,,

atleast we got the the price on ATB.
Report PARCHOUSE April 5, 2010 11:44 AM BST
s h i t. Its not going. really fancies this one, nothing more annoying than an antepost n/r. :(
Report Horsesforcourses April 5, 2010 11:45 AM BST
Confirmed?
Report rhinestone April 5, 2010 11:49 AM BST
A couple of £30's up now which haven't been layed in a few mins...
Report theboyfrommatebeleland April 5, 2010 11:51 AM BST
Wont we know at 12.00?
Report rhinestone April 5, 2010 11:52 AM BST
Yep, suspended at 12. Might pop round the corner for a fosters and a whiskey :^0
Report proctor strikes April 5, 2010 11:52 AM BST
if it was out be a bigger price i feel at this stage.
Report theboyfrommatebeleland April 5, 2010 11:56 AM BST
Rhinestone-have one for me-in deep with this
Report SOULDANCER April 5, 2010 12:46 PM BST
He's still there and down to 20.0.
Report rhinestone April 5, 2010 12:57 PM BST
phew
Report PARCHOUSE April 5, 2010 2:43 PM BST
Why, I dont know, but this is going to slide right out again. Is it just me or does this feel like a slow and painful death.
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