Horse Antepost
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Fancy this fella for the 2010 National. Very pleased to see Mullins confirm the race as his target recently, and glad I got him added to the market before he said this.
Has always looked a National horse to me. He'll still only be 8 years old come the race, which I know a lot of people will put against him, but he was running big races in long distance handicap chases as a 6 year old. He's won over 3m5f and 3m6f as a 6 year old. The National trip should be right up his street. He has bags of experience already in these type's of races, therefore if he runs over hurdles all season to preserve his mark it won't be too much of a bother. Also any ground comes alike to him. I'm willing to forgive him his one disapointing run in the Irish...but this could be a blessing in disguise for his handicap mark.
Rated about 140 which looks perfect...last 3 years bottom weights are below:-
2009 - 139
2008 - 137
2007 - 134
And we all know how much JP & AP want to win the National, it looks very much like they've got the horse to give it a bloody good go. They've certainly got the trainer.
Anyone else fancy him? Or think i'm just crazy? :)
I got a bit excited at seeing all the big prices and went for the lot, it's not very often you can get 3 figure price's about a strong fancy so thought i'd go for it. Also had some on the other one and some e-way @ 50/1. Also if anyone fancies laying me anymore 70 ish let me know...
Arbor Supreme
70 £20.00 £1,380.00
Ref: Bet matched:
75 £10.00 £740.00
Ref: Bet matched:
80 £23.84 £1,883.36
Ref: Bet matched:
90 £10.00 £890.00
Ref: Bet matched:
110 £31.20 £3,400.80
Ref: Bet matched:
120 £11.27 £1,341.13
Ref: Bet matched:
130 £11.99 £1,546.71
Ref: Bet matched:
140 £1.70 £236.30
Has always looked a National horse to me. He'll still only be 8 years old come the race, which I know a lot of people will put against him, but he was running big races in long distance handicap chases as a 6 year old. He's won over 3m5f and 3m6f as a 6 year old. The National trip should be right up his street. He has bags of experience already in these type's of races, therefore if he runs over hurdles all season to preserve his mark it won't be too much of a bother. Also any ground comes alike to him. I'm willing to forgive him his one disapointing run in the Irish...but this could be a blessing in disguise for his handicap mark.
Rated about 140 which looks perfect...last 3 years bottom weights are below:-
2009 - 139
2008 - 137
2007 - 134
And we all know how much JP & AP want to win the National, it looks very much like they've got the horse to give it a bloody good go. They've certainly got the trainer.
Anyone else fancy him? Or think i'm just crazy? :)
I got a bit excited at seeing all the big prices and went for the lot, it's not very often you can get 3 figure price's about a strong fancy so thought i'd go for it. Also had some on the other one and some e-way @ 50/1. Also if anyone fancies laying me anymore 70 ish let me know...
Arbor Supreme
70 £20.00 £1,380.00
Ref: Bet matched:
75 £10.00 £740.00
Ref: Bet matched:
80 £23.84 £1,883.36
Ref: Bet matched:
90 £10.00 £890.00
Ref: Bet matched:
110 £31.20 £3,400.80
Ref: Bet matched:
120 £11.27 £1,341.13
Ref: Bet matched:
130 £11.99 £1,546.71
Ref: Bet matched:
140 £1.70 £236.30
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Replies: 96
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yeah i fancy him strongly, and picked him out after this years national as a potential winner
The only slight quirk i've got with him, is that he's very much a hold-up horse and this proved problems in the irish gn Having said that we know, exactly on the day, if he has got a great chance as Ruby would be on board |
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sorry forgot jp owns him, in that case mccoy would be on board
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Yes, I would love Ruby aboard.
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lots of GN potential rhino fo'sho
only thing is, he hasn't put in a performance in one of the key "class" races, if you're into that kind of thing.. |
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i think he'll be over in england at some point during the winter, think willie mullins said he may go for the hennessy last year - he needs the better ground which he will get at aintree
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AR,
I'm definitely one for the trends, he only needs one more 3m+ win. We know how strong the GN trends are |
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Yeah Mullins has said he may mix it over fences and hurdles...I just wondered if he may just stay over hurdles and risk getting in at the bottom as he is now, rather than winning something and going up half a stone.
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kwality, more than that isn't it? winners have won or placed in one of the nationals/hennessy/rsa etc..?
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yeah, could be a possibility, and he'll go the same route as Hedgehunter and target the Bobbyjo in Feb after the weights are out
Like i said though - just not sure with him as he needs to be held up and will have to have a lot of luck in-running at aintree |
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Does the Thyestes count AR? :p Placed in that.
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:p
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AR
Key races include top3 in Irish, scots, welsh Gn, top 5 hennessy or Gold cup. Top 2 in becher or topham (not too sure on latter) this covers most winners Alternatively 3, 24f+ wins. one being over 28f I'll post the rest of the stats up, when theres a decent thread for the GN Would like to hear news on mr pointment who would be well handicapped now to win the national |
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My thread not got enough quality, kwality? :p
Feel free to whack some stats on here, or alternatively and stats that Arbor doesn't meet! |
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he meets them at the moment, just needs another 24f + win, he just need to hit the seasonal stats ater that, run inside 48 days, 4-6 season runs, OR 136-148 etc
Thats why i'm keeping an eye on him - the stats don't lie in the national, they worked this year and there was still a 100/1 winner |
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I think the "key race" signifier is crucial but not sure the number of wins at 3m+ is, as they could be any old race and not an indicator of class.
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AR
there are more stats to add to that like a class 1 top 3 finish. Think there is about 15 in total - and they always narrow the race down to 1 or 2, the two that hit this year was Rambling Minster and Mon Mome |
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I know :p just remember the class race signifier being crucial, over and above a horse without that but with a few 3m+ wins, which don't indicate he's good enough or not, just that he'll stay the trip.
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kwality 27 Oct 21:51
Would like to hear news on mr pointment who would be well handicapped now to win the national Mr Pointment was mentioned in a thread a few weeks ago. Apparently is now owned by the Wilsons, which would indicate that the National might be on the agenda. My own nagging remembrance was that he was going Point-to-Pointing, but that may have been another horse. I've got my own 2010 Grand National thread going, though I winced at some of the stuff I wrote in April and May when I just re-read it. (Why the hell would I be interested in Finger Onthe Pulse?) http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/trends-research-notebooks/2010-grand-national-portfolio-t76901.html |
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Sold to P.Murphy 18,000 at dbs mr pointment.
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Thought i'd bring this back up with the big day getting closer.
Pretty pleased with his first run back over hurdles to blow the cobwebs away...another one or two hurdle races (if we ever race again) then a race over fences after the weights are announced would be just nice. He's been entered in a few English races in the meantime: Hennessy, Welsh and a Chelenham race, with his h'cap mark being 142 for each, which I reckon is pretty much perfect. Mon Mome off 161 would give Arbor 10st 5lb, so you can see why Willie is running over hurdles! Backed him again on here in the meantime and also now some 40/1 at laddies...need to stop now though, done a bit too much. Of the other's obviously Dream Alliance now enters the equation, but having gone up 9lb for his Welsh win that may be just a step too far. A bit disapointing Gone To Lunch was only dropped 1lb after being pulled up at halfway, compared to being dropped 2lb's for running 5th in one of the best Hennessy's for a while...can't work it out. Still think he's on a fair mark for the trip though, but most likely AP will be on a JP horse, maybe mine. Big Fella ran a nice race back, I know a few fancy him...must be pleased with his comeback run. The race is really going to shape up in the next month with just a matter of time before something goes towards 12/1 ish fav. |
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bit concerned hes only had the one run so far
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Yep nibbledat, though don't you think he'll get another few in?
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aye prob looking at feb now and then maybe chelt thereafter
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What's your main fancy at this stage?
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backed church island and joe lively so far but arbor is on my radar given he has a run or two.
like dream alliance butground would be a worry for that one what about you ?:| |
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I've got a bit on Church Island, traded a nice bet on Niche Market a while back, just not sure he's going to campaign him right. GTL has to have a big chance although not sure he's running? I think if they had looked after Don't Push It with this race in mind he'd have had a big chance, probably too high in the h'cap now, but looks to need the trip nowadays. Ballytrim, but would need to win again to get in.
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aye GTL was the other one but has you say, scottish national seems the more likely option. going to aintree for the first time this year so i need to have the winner :^0
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Only been once before myself, not for the National though.
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All sorted now, layed off, be mad not to in the National, need loads of luck but i'm due some.
Starting to get nervous now, would be my biggest win. Managed to get £212.91 on here @ average odds 76.39, and £19.08 @ average 63.9 on the daq. £25 e-way @ 50/1 £200 win, £25 e-way @ 40/1 £100 win, £25 e-way @ 33/1 Layed for a risk free £19,000 ish bet, just praying he gets a clear run so there's no excuses and if he get's stuffed it's my fault I could handle that. |
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Fook me Rhinestone I thought my 7.5K was alot :^0
Best of luck ;) |
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Now we know why he drifted ...
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lordnoise, I did put a £500 lay up @ 16.5 once, within an hour he was 21 :| lemmings sheep, whatever you want to call em everywhere. Anyway just drip fed it in, in the end.
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RS :0 ery nice sir :D
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you going ??
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Last year I had a free bet on Offshore Account to win 21K (backed on daq @ 550)
I must admit I got a bit jiggy when he came there cruising a mile out, sadly thats when the petrol ran out :( |
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Nope, never fancied it really. Been for the friday a few years ago coz I had a runner, and did think it was a class place. Will probably get to the National one year, maybe next year as a mate is on about having his stag do there, however if I've got bet's like this next year, I'd rather watch it on TV. Are you going?
If any of you good lads are in the Teesside area next saturday, drinks on me :D |
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You backed him in the Topham TV? Ran another cracker in the WH Chase at Chelters, must have been leading about the 2m6f mark?
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LOLOL :) - love it rhinestone !!!
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no...we go to lingfield & watch it in the restaurant...generally try to smash b.dennis on the day.
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