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Just under 2 weeks to go before we get Tim Segels anti post 2000 Guineas selection, last year he tipped STS. Now if we can guess his selection, we should be able to lay it off and get a free bet.
My guess would be WORKFORCE, and possibly one of O Briens, or perhaps he will leave O Briens alone this year, as it is difficult to know what others ( if any ) he will run besides the fave.
Would he go for HOFire ?
My guess would be WORKFORCE, and possibly one of O Briens, or perhaps he will leave O Briens alone this year, as it is difficult to know what others ( if any ) he will run besides the fave.
Would he go for HOFire ?
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I tried making a post to this thread but got a message saying this was a 'moderated' forum/thread. What's that all about then?
Same thing happened just now. The wording is "You have posted to a moderated forum. Your message will be reviewed shortly and published". Must have been because I included the name of Seagull's column ('Prciewise'). I didn't realise that Betfair had the power to block certain postings, I thought they simply relied on complaints from other users...
Anyway, I was wondering whether anyone has a record of all the 2000 and 1000 Guineas tips published in the Prciewise column over the last few years. Thanks.
Anyway, I was wondering whether anyone has a record of all the 2000 and 1000 Guineas tips published in the Prciewise column over the last few years. Thanks.
i hope he does says INLER as been backing it for the last few months
Inler 500/1 to be Wiseprice imo....about the same to win
Cannot type the guys name ( t=m s=gal ) on here jamesp without getting that message.
The previous year he tipped Confront, Jupiter Pluvious, they are the only ones i can remember.
The previous year he tipped Confront, Jupiter Pluvious, they are the only ones i can remember.
He was a particularly big fan of Awzaan last year, depends if 12-1 is big enough I suppose
bit hard to believe innit one of the best ever flat horses trading @ 25s about 6 weeks b4 the GNS think a stablemate Arazan? was trading shorter @ the time.
Similar to Nashwan many moons ago trading @ 33s b4 the spectacular gallop saw him collapse in price.
Similar to Nashwan many moons ago trading @ 33s b4 the spectacular gallop saw him collapse in price.
duncan idaho 21 Mar 13:09
Inler 500/1 to be Wiseprice imo....about the same to win
It may not win, and may not even get there or stay.. But it sure as f-cuk aint no 500/1 shot :^0
Send in the clowns :p
Inler 500/1 to be Wiseprice imo....about the same to win
It may not win, and may not even get there or stay.. But it sure as f-cuk aint no 500/1 shot :^0
Send in the clowns :p
IMO Beethoven & Siyouni.
Group 1 winners, top class trainers and pedigrees. Come from the right owners.
Now Kingsfort aint gonna run think Al Zir is bit over-priced given the Frankie factor and possible trade out opportunities come 1st May.
Group 1 winners, top class trainers and pedigrees. Come from the right owners.
Now Kingsfort aint gonna run think Al Zir is bit over-priced given the Frankie factor and possible trade out opportunities come 1st May.
Siyouni, being aimed at the French Guineas according to his trainer.
Would say Fencing Master more likely than Beethoven (not checked the prices). Wouldn't surprise me if he looked down the field though or found something progessive but unexposed.
2007 Adagio
2006 Asset
2005 not sure but Id guess Footsteps or Rob Roy he loves the OBrien/Stoute horses for the guineas
2004 Whipper
I'd say he'll go for Awzaan this year
2006 Asset
2005 not sure but Id guess Footsteps or Rob Roy he loves the OBrien/Stoute horses for the guineas
2004 Whipper
I'd say he'll go for Awzaan this year
I am not so sure about trying to find a value Guineas bet this year.
The trouble is that st Nicholas SAbbey looks such a likely winner to me.
the 7/2 that was around for ages evaporated when Aiden made it clearer that the Guineas would be his target and the hype horse steinbeck was ruled out. However come 2000 Guineas day, he looks to me like a near even money shot maybe odds on.
Of the opposition, I suspect Canford Cliffs may not stay, and there are doubts too about Arcano staying.
Inler looks like a 33/1 shot at least to me (how people could possibly be conned into backing him as short as 10/1 on here is beyond me- I wish I had been at the computer to be able to lay him at that sort of price).
Workforce looks to me to be in need of further than a mile (Timeform state "may well get a mile and a half"), but he could be really very good.
Awzaan is the only interesting one. he has a really decent turn of foot, is bred to get a mile and is no hard puller so almost certainly will.
The trouble with all the opposition to St Nich is his quality. He already looks on his 2yo at the level that is required to win most 2000 Guineas, and its quite hard to envisage anything making the progress required to really trouble him
My guess at Toms 2000 Guineas attempt is that he will go for Workforce or Awzaan.
The trouble is that st Nicholas SAbbey looks such a likely winner to me.
the 7/2 that was around for ages evaporated when Aiden made it clearer that the Guineas would be his target and the hype horse steinbeck was ruled out. However come 2000 Guineas day, he looks to me like a near even money shot maybe odds on.
Of the opposition, I suspect Canford Cliffs may not stay, and there are doubts too about Arcano staying.
Inler looks like a 33/1 shot at least to me (how people could possibly be conned into backing him as short as 10/1 on here is beyond me- I wish I had been at the computer to be able to lay him at that sort of price).
Workforce looks to me to be in need of further than a mile (Timeform state "may well get a mile and a half"), but he could be really very good.
Awzaan is the only interesting one. he has a really decent turn of foot, is bred to get a mile and is no hard puller so almost certainly will.
The trouble with all the opposition to St Nich is his quality. He already looks on his 2yo at the level that is required to win most 2000 Guineas, and its quite hard to envisage anything making the progress required to really trouble him
My guess at Toms 2000 Guineas attempt is that he will go for Workforce or Awzaan.
cryoftruth, agree with everything you have said there, except I think Arcano should get the mile (more likely to stay than Canford Cliffs anyway).
Nashwan was famously 33-1 in pre-Betfair days. Imagine what price it would be now, 21 years later!!
imagine indeed, and also remember he won over a mile at 2 on good to soft,beating some fast sorts in his GNS
Think he'll go for Awzaan, as he will say that the slight stamina doubt "is factored into the price"
Elusive Pimpernel will stay, handles track, could, on quicker going, improve on run behind SNA, and owner's and trainer's only realistic runner, February colt, 16/1 around his price.
I like Xtension at 33/1 with SJ. I think he goes straight to the Guineas.
The only other one who may be far too big a price is the obvious Godolphin contender - Al Zir.
He was very progressive last year appearing to improve each run, but he was a big weak sort, certain to be much better at 3 than he was at 2. Horses with his size and scope can improve a surprising amount at 3, and since he is very likely to be Frankie's 2000 Guineas mount he is likely to shorten in the betting considerably before too long.
I wonder if Tom may see his price as just too big, given the major resurgence of Godolphin last year, and their pan to bring him back to Newmarket early (he may already be here).
He was very progressive last year appearing to improve each run, but he was a big weak sort, certain to be much better at 3 than he was at 2. Horses with his size and scope can improve a surprising amount at 3, and since he is very likely to be Frankie's 2000 Guineas mount he is likely to shorten in the betting considerably before too long.
I wonder if Tom may see his price as just too big, given the major resurgence of Godolphin last year, and their pan to bring him back to Newmarket early (he may already be here).
Beethoven or Al Zir for me....they are definitely the value.
Beethoven is a fair form pick I guess. He at least has won a group 1 race, but its hard to get that excited about the dewhurst form. A small hanky would have covered the first 4 home and its unlikely that all 4 were brilliant. Out of the Dewhurst I think you need to try and pick one that might improve a load. The only 2 for me were Fencing Master and Steinbeck.
Plans still fluid for ARCANO, the 2000G is only a possibility.
That is interesting push.
i am still not sure he'll stay a mile anyway.
Although at first glance you would think that Daylami, as the dam's sire, would give enough stamina to offset Oasis Dream's speed, there is actually a significant amount of sprint speed on the dam's side of his pedigree. Flying Childers winners, and a Prix de L'Abbey winner abound on the classy but very fast distaff side. A colt who is fast at 2, who is by a sprinter out of a miler from a fast family, just raises too many doubts for me in respect staying power.
Its also the case that the 6 furlong french race he won was, imo, a bit dubious formwise, with all 5 runners separated by about 1 length in total at the end. Its also the case that the race was very quick, and he broke the course record - the ground was very fast.
Arcano has a chance of course, if he turns up, but there is a great deal of difference between winning a fast ground sprint at 2, and taking the 2000 Guineas. I am of the view that both he and Canford Cliffs may find the later maturing more staying sorts a bit too strong at the end of a mile at Newmarket.
i am still not sure he'll stay a mile anyway.
Although at first glance you would think that Daylami, as the dam's sire, would give enough stamina to offset Oasis Dream's speed, there is actually a significant amount of sprint speed on the dam's side of his pedigree. Flying Childers winners, and a Prix de L'Abbey winner abound on the classy but very fast distaff side. A colt who is fast at 2, who is by a sprinter out of a miler from a fast family, just raises too many doubts for me in respect staying power.
Its also the case that the 6 furlong french race he won was, imo, a bit dubious formwise, with all 5 runners separated by about 1 length in total at the end. Its also the case that the race was very quick, and he broke the course record - the ground was very fast.
Arcano has a chance of course, if he turns up, but there is a great deal of difference between winning a fast ground sprint at 2, and taking the 2000 Guineas. I am of the view that both he and Canford Cliffs may find the later maturing more staying sorts a bit too strong at the end of a mile at Newmarket.
^^^ Interesting view about the horse. If you thought the Morny form is dubious how would you rate the chance of SPECIAL DUTY in the 1000 guineas?
Cot
Oasis Dream whilst a speedster himself had pleny of stamina(class & speed) on his dams side
dam by Dancing Brave grand dam by Mill Reef & as with Midday can get horse staying further than the mile.
Oasis Dream whilst a speedster himself had pleny of stamina(class & speed) on his dams side
dam by Dancing Brave grand dam by Mill Reef & as with Midday can get horse staying further than the mile.
i agree with all that of course and argued hard for Midday staying last year.
However I reckon Oasis Dream is a stallion that can impart stamina if there is plenty on the dam's side. Arcano has some, dam a miler by a stayer, but there is a pedigree doubt because of all the sprinting blood, and if you add the doubt to the profile of his career to date, the doubt increases - he was simply very quick last year. its a balance of probabilities and value that's all, chances are that something will get home better at the end of the guineas. Doesn't mean at all he can't win though.
Of course its a fair point about the filly's form - she did not look too shoddy in the Cheveley Park did she?
However i take the view that she actually improved quite a bit from the Morny to the Newmarket race - I think she got at least a 5lb higher RP Rating. Its just that I do find it quite hard to accept as top class form a race that the five participants were separated only by about half a length at the end - in weight terms there was only 3lbs difference between first and fifth - surely they all can't be that brilliant?
However I reckon Oasis Dream is a stallion that can impart stamina if there is plenty on the dam's side. Arcano has some, dam a miler by a stayer, but there is a pedigree doubt because of all the sprinting blood, and if you add the doubt to the profile of his career to date, the doubt increases - he was simply very quick last year. its a balance of probabilities and value that's all, chances are that something will get home better at the end of the guineas. Doesn't mean at all he can't win though.
Of course its a fair point about the filly's form - she did not look too shoddy in the Cheveley Park did she?
However i take the view that she actually improved quite a bit from the Morny to the Newmarket race - I think she got at least a 5lb higher RP Rating. Its just that I do find it quite hard to accept as top class form a race that the five participants were separated only by about half a length at the end - in weight terms there was only 3lbs difference between first and fifth - surely they all can't be that brilliant?
re: Arcano's stamina. I haven't traced the dam's side of the pedigree all the way back, but at first glance there is more than enough stamina on that side of Arcano's family to encourage hopes that he will get a mile (and possibly further).
Arcano is the first foal of Tariysha (by Daylami), an unraced half-sister to Tarwila, Tarbela, Tahara, Taraya and Teen Ager. The best guide to Arcano's chances of getting a mile lies in an analysis of these five:
1. Tarwila (by In The Wings) was a 9-12f winner at three and is the dam of Tarkani (by Spectrum, 8f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 2½m, placed over 3m), Tarvini (by Kalanisi, 12f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 3¼m) and Tarkesar (by Desert Prince, 9f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 2½m, placed over 3m).
2. Tarbela (by Grand Lodge) ran over 6-8f but was very modest and never won a race. She is the dam of Spiritual Healing (by Invincible Spirit, 6f winner on second and final start) and Big Audio (by Oratorio, winner of a couple of listed races as a juvenile last year over 7-8f).
3. Tahara (by Caerleon) is the dam of Godfrey Street (by Compton Place, multiple 5f winner), Gilt Edge Girl (by Monsieur Bond, 5-6f winner), Always Ready (by Best Of The Bests, 7f winner, placed over 8f) and Tamora (by Dr Fong, 7f winner, placed over 9f).
4. Taraya (by Doyoun) is the dam of Messager Du Roi (by King's Theatre, smart 10-11f winner).
5. Teen Ager (by Invincible Spirit) has won over 5-8f.
These five and Arcano's dam Tariysha are all out of the smart mare Tarwiya (by Dominion), who won the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at two and finished third to Marling in the Irish Guineas at three. Tariysha never raced but on breeding she could have been expected to get 10f, being by Daylami and therefore bred along similar lines to Tarwila (by strong stamina influence In The Wings), who won over 12f and has produced three winning hurdlers. Tariysha (by Daylami) is also quite closely related to Taraya (by Daylami's sire Doyoun), who has produced the smart 10-11f performer Messager Du Roi.
Arcano showed plenty of speed last year, winning all three starts over 6f, but there is every reason to believe that he will get a mile this year. Yes, there is quite a bit of speed in the pedigree (through Tarwiya) but a fair amount of stamina too. I believe that the Daylami influence for stamina will be the decisive factor. In my opinion he is more likely to get a mile than Canford Cliffs, who finished close behind him in the Morny. In both the July Stakes and the Prix Morny he looked as though a step up to 7f would suit. The Dewhurst would have been a suitable final race of the season for him.
As far as the Prix Morny form is concerned, I take the point about the bunched finish, but all five runners were previous Group race winners and had already shown a high level of form. I think it was a very good renewal.
Arcano is the first foal of Tariysha (by Daylami), an unraced half-sister to Tarwila, Tarbela, Tahara, Taraya and Teen Ager. The best guide to Arcano's chances of getting a mile lies in an analysis of these five:
1. Tarwila (by In The Wings) was a 9-12f winner at three and is the dam of Tarkani (by Spectrum, 8f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 2½m, placed over 3m), Tarvini (by Kalanisi, 12f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 3¼m) and Tarkesar (by Desert Prince, 9f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 2½m, placed over 3m).
2. Tarbela (by Grand Lodge) ran over 6-8f but was very modest and never won a race. She is the dam of Spiritual Healing (by Invincible Spirit, 6f winner on second and final start) and Big Audio (by Oratorio, winner of a couple of listed races as a juvenile last year over 7-8f).
3. Tahara (by Caerleon) is the dam of Godfrey Street (by Compton Place, multiple 5f winner), Gilt Edge Girl (by Monsieur Bond, 5-6f winner), Always Ready (by Best Of The Bests, 7f winner, placed over 8f) and Tamora (by Dr Fong, 7f winner, placed over 9f).
4. Taraya (by Doyoun) is the dam of Messager Du Roi (by King's Theatre, smart 10-11f winner).
5. Teen Ager (by Invincible Spirit) has won over 5-8f.
These five and Arcano's dam Tariysha are all out of the smart mare Tarwiya (by Dominion), who won the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at two and finished third to Marling in the Irish Guineas at three. Tariysha never raced but on breeding she could have been expected to get 10f, being by Daylami and therefore bred along similar lines to Tarwila (by strong stamina influence In The Wings), who won over 12f and has produced three winning hurdlers. Tariysha (by Daylami) is also quite closely related to Taraya (by Daylami's sire Doyoun), who has produced the smart 10-11f performer Messager Du Roi.
Arcano showed plenty of speed last year, winning all three starts over 6f, but there is every reason to believe that he will get a mile this year. Yes, there is quite a bit of speed in the pedigree (through Tarwiya) but a fair amount of stamina too. I believe that the Daylami influence for stamina will be the decisive factor. In my opinion he is more likely to get a mile than Canford Cliffs, who finished close behind him in the Morny. In both the July Stakes and the Prix Morny he looked as though a step up to 7f would suit. The Dewhurst would have been a suitable final race of the season for him.
As far as the Prix Morny form is concerned, I take the point about the bunched finish, but all five runners were previous Group race winners and had already shown a high level of form. I think it was a very good renewal.
Arcano out to 23 now - intended NR or just reaction to the quotes?
Beethoven may be exposed but I think he ran an absolute belter at Newmarket. The visor seemed to help (his sire wore one a couple of times as well to sharpen him up) and he really knuckled down up that hill.
Oratorio had a busy campaign as a 2yo but ended the season as a Group 1 winner. I know that his form was better but I dont think that some of Beethoven's form is actually that bad. His effort in Santa Anita was not bad at all given he was virtually taken out on the first bend.
He is no way the most likely winner, if St Nicholas Abbey turns up then he quite rightly sets the standard....but there are no doubts about Beethoven's ability to stay, his sire improved as a 3yo (albeit over longer distances), he has won the Dewhurst in a pretty impressive time, according to Raceform had one of the top 2yo speed figures... yet is 69/1 (albeit for buttons).
Think you could do a lot worse thats all.
Oratorio had a busy campaign as a 2yo but ended the season as a Group 1 winner. I know that his form was better but I dont think that some of Beethoven's form is actually that bad. His effort in Santa Anita was not bad at all given he was virtually taken out on the first bend.
He is no way the most likely winner, if St Nicholas Abbey turns up then he quite rightly sets the standard....but there are no doubts about Beethoven's ability to stay, his sire improved as a 3yo (albeit over longer distances), he has won the Dewhurst in a pretty impressive time, according to Raceform had one of the top 2yo speed figures... yet is 69/1 (albeit for buttons).
Think you could do a lot worse thats all.
By the time Tim gets around to tipping his 2000G selection all the value will have gone, even Xtension has been cut in price today :)
Arcano done all his best work at the end of his races.He'll stay a mile
alright,why he is more than twice Candford Cliffs price on here is
beyond me.
alright,why he is more than twice Candford Cliffs price on here is
beyond me.
I haven't been following the 2000G market in the last couple of days, but there has been a lot of activity in the 1000G market today (see separate 1000 Guineas thread). I suspect that Tom will select one or more of the following: Music Show, Atasari, Pollenator, Hibaayeb, Eolith, Lady Darshaan, Devoted To You. If he picks a lightly-raced maiden winner it could well be Plume, as she has been the subject of glowing reports and is almost certain to go for the Guineas trial at Newbury (all the 33/1 and 25/1 was taken today).
Fencing Master looks the value. Group 1 form but still open to plenty of improvement.
Well, wasn't anyone at the news kiosk at Victoria Station last night, so they could be amongst the first to pick up a copy?
With the weather forecasts I'm seeing that is a very chancey selection.
I don't disagree with you jamesp, except we arrive at slightly different conclusions from the same analysis. I worry for Arcano, as by a sprinter out of a miler (albeit one by a stayer), he has to have some racecourse evidence in the way he runs, that he will get better for further. He does seem to be a free running sort, unlike Awzaan, who settles. He was very fast at 2. I have lingering doubts about the form of his big win any way because every single runner in the Prix Morny apart from the winner was a very narrow loser. The form of the race is dubious, even despite the form of the filly in the Cheveley Park - she improved to win that race as she did.
In any event the matter may just be hypothetical for the 2000 Guineas as the owner may decide to go for the English Guineas with Awzaan and go to France with Arcano.
However I reckon he would be better waiting for the Kings Stand Stakes for Arcano, where he can have another battle with Canford Cliffs.
In any event the matter may just be hypothetical for the 2000 Guineas as the owner may decide to go for the English Guineas with Awzaan and go to France with Arcano.
However I reckon he would be better waiting for the Kings Stand Stakes for Arcano, where he can have another battle with Canford Cliffs.
I'm sticking with St Nicholas Abbey as the likeliest winner (for reasons already set out on other threads and admirably summarised by Tom Segal in today's Racing Post). My reference to Awzaan at 06:47 was simply to confirm TS's tip in today's paper. Awzaan is obviously one of the main dangers to SNA. As far as Arcano is concerned, you refer to him as being by a sprinter out of a miler, but his dam Tariysha was unraced (according to the records I use) - she was bred to stay 10f, which is why Arcano should get a mile (on breeding). Mark Johnston seems to have stolen a march on Brian Meehan - as well as the article by Tom O'Ryan in today's Racing Post there's another feature on Awzaan in The Times today - and it seems inconceivable that Awzaan won't run in the Guineas. It would be good to see Arcano in the line-up too - if I were Sheikh Hamdan I'd run both.
So they tip Awzaan on the day there's an article in the RP about it. Wow !
With the winter / spring we are having I'm thinking it may wll be a big benefit to have had a run.
^Given the above post I have just had my Good Friday antepost wager on Viscount Nelson at 80/1 :)
l was at the Middleham Open Day today and saw Awzaan albeit he was stood in his box. His coat in was in great condition, given the bad weather they have had up there all winter, you could almost see your reflection in it.
Arcano should get 7f, no worries imo, there's a reasonable chance he'll get a mile too but would have to be on quick ground.
Think Arcano is the value but with doubts over participation probably worth waiting, I think any double odds price represents value for a horse who has identical credntials to St nick abbeu (3 from 3 and G1 winner)
jamesp
you probably read my various arguments as how SNA will need a sniper well armed to stop him on other threads. My own view is one reliant on the form of the Acomb Stakes, where the winner beat a load of subsequent group winners and improved for the trip at Donny when thraped unmercifully by SNA.
Tom has a point about APOB horses not usually spot on in very early May though, and Awzaan is a very decent alternative - as I argued earlier in this thread.
you probably read my various arguments as how SNA will need a sniper well armed to stop him on other threads. My own view is one reliant on the form of the Acomb Stakes, where the winner beat a load of subsequent group winners and improved for the trip at Donny when thraped unmercifully by SNA.
Tom has a point about APOB horses not usually spot on in very early May though, and Awzaan is a very decent alternative - as I argued earlier in this thread.
Evening Cry
You not concerned that SNA has beaten 2 40/1 shots for the 2000 and not much else?
You not concerned that SNA has beaten 2 40/1 shots for the 2000 and not much else?
st nicholas abbey didnt impress particularly on the clock when winning at donny. and the clock doesnt lie!
no worries. i even think if memory serves me correctly pollenator ran the final furlong almost as fast when winning the may hill. though may hvae to recheck that.
Have you made a naked appearance at one of our fine racecourses yet MP???
MP's going straight now. Backing nothing under 4/1.
:)
:)
Hi charlton
The prices for the Guineas of those that SNA beat last year are no concern really.
The reason that they are long prices is nothing to do with their quality, but rather more to do with the fact that SNA thrashed them.
The form of the second at Doncaster bears the closest scrutiny. Just about everything behind him when he won the Acomb has won - even the fourth horse went on and won the breeders cup.
For SNA to have done what he did at Donny makes him pretty special.
SNA may not like very fast ground and the Newmarket dip. Aiden may not have him super fit. Aside from that he looks bomb proof - sorry.
The prices for the Guineas of those that SNA beat last year are no concern really.
The reason that they are long prices is nothing to do with their quality, but rather more to do with the fact that SNA thrashed them.
The form of the second at Doncaster bears the closest scrutiny. Just about everything behind him when he won the Acomb has won - even the fourth horse went on and won the breeders cup.
For SNA to have done what he did at Donny makes him pretty special.
SNA may not like very fast ground and the Newmarket dip. Aiden may not have him super fit. Aside from that he looks bomb proof - sorry.
dunguib was very special before the supreme novice hurdle :D
Different GRIZLY.
It's just been said that SNA's form stacks up, Dunguib's didnt.
It's just been said that SNA's form stacks up, Dunguib's didnt.
cryoftruth, I agree with everything you've just said there about SNA. I think Elusive Pimpernel is a top-class horse himself, who may well be up to winning a Group 1 race this year. Godolphin are very keen on Al Zir and they have plenty of good horses with which to compare him. Another potential hazard at Newmarket is the draw (if they split into two or more groups, spread across the track). I have no worries about him not being fast enough or anything like that.
im not sure what(the detractors) expected SNA to do @ Donny.
He obliterated 10 horses who had all won on their previous outing in the style of a top class colt .
He delivered a turn of foot on a couple shakes of the reigns & went thro em like a knife thro butter.
He couldnt really do any more than muller the opposition in front of him.
Myth with regards to the time of the May Hill (Pollenator) & SNA in the R.P trophy it has no bearing whatsoever unless you are going to make allowances for the going/wind direction.
Rattling fast for the May Hill plenty of give for the R.P trophy.
I personally thought he was a ludicrously short price for the R.P trophy but he was backed as tho defeat was out of the question & backers never had a moments worry.
He obliterated 10 horses who had all won on their previous outing in the style of a top class colt .
He delivered a turn of foot on a couple shakes of the reigns & went thro em like a knife thro butter.
He couldnt really do any more than muller the opposition in front of him.
Myth with regards to the time of the May Hill (Pollenator) & SNA in the R.P trophy it has no bearing whatsoever unless you are going to make allowances for the going/wind direction.
Rattling fast for the May Hill plenty of give for the R.P trophy.
I personally thought he was a ludicrously short price for the R.P trophy but he was backed as tho defeat was out of the question & backers never had a moments worry.
well thats true geoff. according to my very rough timings, pollenator ran the final furlong almost a second quicker than st nicholas abbey, but as you say the ground was completely different (and not to mention having to take the early pace into account, it would seem the may hill was ran at a crawl, although you could say the same about the racing post trophy)
i cant pretend im a great speed ratings expert. its just a bit of fun messing around for me. mind you sometimes these rough timings can be quite useful, like a couple of years this godolphin horse whos name escapes me won the racing post trophy in very taking style, but according to my timings he ran the final furlong quite slowly, so the impressive nature of the win was quite misleading.
i cant pretend im a great speed ratings expert. its just a bit of fun messing around for me. mind you sometimes these rough timings can be quite useful, like a couple of years this godolphin horse whos name escapes me won the racing post trophy in very taking style, but according to my timings he ran the final furlong quite slowly, so the impressive nature of the win was quite misleading.
Mythical the horse was Ibn Khaldun - won the RP impressively and then disappointed since.
Still think the following are the value:
- Beehoven and Al Zir.
- Beehoven and Al Zir.
Beethoven is a crazy price.
Anyone ever recall being able to get 50s about a dewhurst winner for the 2000 gns 4 weeks b4 the classic when an intended runner?
Anyone ever recall being able to get 50s about a dewhurst winner for the 2000 gns 4 weeks b4 the classic when an intended runner?
rhinestone 03 Apr 09:08
Different GRIZLY.
It's just been said that SNA's form stacks up, Dunguib's didnt.
Can we verify that comment somewhere before the race or are you just an aftertiming cun t?
Different GRIZLY.
It's just been said that SNA's form stacks up, Dunguib's didnt.
Can we verify that comment somewhere before the race or are you just an aftertiming cun t?
ibn khaldun, yeah remember it well. (apart from its name :^0 )
had a couple of v impressive wins at ascot and donny and was trading as 2nd fav behind new approach over the winter.
but the donny form fell apart and in hindsight he just wasnt that good, though think he got injured after the guineas.
had a couple of v impressive wins at ascot and donny and was trading as 2nd fav behind new approach over the winter.
but the donny form fell apart and in hindsight he just wasnt that good, though think he got injured after the guineas.
cryoftruth 03 Apr 09:01
Hi charlton
The prices for the Guineas of those that SNA beat last year are no concern really.
The reason that they are long prices is nothing to do with their quality, but rather more to do with the fact that SNA thrashed them.
The form of the second at Doncaster bears the closest scrutiny. Just about everything behind him when he won the Acomb has won - even the fourth horse went on and won the breeders cup.
For SNA to have done what he did at Donny makes him pretty special.
SNA may not like very fast ground and the Newmarket dip. Aiden may not have him super fit. Aside from that he looks bomb proof - sorry.
Thanks Cry - absolutely no need to apologise!
GL to you and SNA
:)
Hi charlton
The prices for the Guineas of those that SNA beat last year are no concern really.
The reason that they are long prices is nothing to do with their quality, but rather more to do with the fact that SNA thrashed them.
The form of the second at Doncaster bears the closest scrutiny. Just about everything behind him when he won the Acomb has won - even the fourth horse went on and won the breeders cup.
For SNA to have done what he did at Donny makes him pretty special.
SNA may not like very fast ground and the Newmarket dip. Aiden may not have him super fit. Aside from that he looks bomb proof - sorry.
Thanks Cry - absolutely no need to apologise!
GL to you and SNA
:)
geoff m 03 Apr 13:47
Beethoven is a crazy price.
Anyone ever recall being able to get 50s about a dewhurst winner for the 2000 gns 4 weeks b4 the classic when an intended runner?
Sounds like Coolmore think it either won't run or if it does has no chance
Beethoven is a crazy price.
Anyone ever recall being able to get 50s about a dewhurst winner for the 2000 gns 4 weeks b4 the classic when an intended runner?
Sounds like Coolmore think it either won't run or if it does has no chance
geoff m 03 Apr 13:47
Beethoven is a crazy price.
Anyone ever recall being able to get 50s about a dewhurst winner for the 2000 gns 4 weeks b4 the classic when an intended runner?
Sounds like Coolmore think it either won't run or if it does has no chance
THE LATTER!
Beethoven is a crazy price.
Anyone ever recall being able to get 50s about a dewhurst winner for the 2000 gns 4 weeks b4 the classic when an intended runner?
Sounds like Coolmore think it either won't run or if it does has no chance
THE LATTER!
As if I've been called an aftertiming c unt by Charlton2005 :0
Or they read the race wrong which isnt entirely out of the parish.
Beethoven has a real chance....the more I look at him, I think he is so massively overpriced its untrue.
Beethoven has a real chance....the more I look at him, I think he is so massively overpriced its untrue.
It's very hard to imagine Beethoven confirming the Dewhurst form with Fencing Master. Beethoven was having his tenth race of the season at Newmarket, while Fencing Master was having just the second race of his career. Fencing Master was hampered at the start and got well behind, showed signs of greenness, and was still only beaten by a neck at the line. Fencing Master possesses more scope than Beethoven, who will surely be Ballydoyle's third or fourth string in the Guineas. I agree that 50/1 may on the surface be quite a generous price, but he's unlikely to be considerably shorter on the day, in my opinion. Perhaps a 33/1 shot.
In any event the Dewhurst form looks really dodgy to me. 2 lengths covered the first 5 home and the first 4 were separated by only half a length. Bethoven looks pretty exposed and I would personally take only Fencing Master and Steinbeck out of the Dewhurst as having the potential to make a real mark in group 1 races this year. Of the 2 of these you would think that fencing Master would be a 10 furlong horse and Steinbeck is out of the English Guineas. To me that leaves the middle Park the Racing Post Trophy and this year's trials as the key to the guineas. However I see Workforce was backed again yesterday. He is hugely over rated on what he has done so far. I reckon the timeform rating of 106 is around a stone too high on form of one of the very exposed and consistent 73 rated horses he beat in the maiden. however I am a fan of Workforce. He won the miaden brilliantly despite being green and his trainer is an absolute master at producing horses spot on in a 2000 Guineas. he is also not noted for getting swans and geese confused, so he is a big danger to all imo.
grizzly
I note your comment regards Dunguib. Well Dunguib, imo, was a bit unlucky at Cheltenham, conceding tons of ground, coming from well back and coming right round the outside of the whole field. He was also odd on to win. SNA is still available at 3 times the price of Dunguib. he is no sure thing of course, and people would have to make their own minds up regrds what is value. I would say he was a real 9/4 shot just now, these adds will shorten the nearer it gets to the Guineas without mishap.
I am old enough to remember a stone cold certainty - Appalachee losing at HQ, and I still don't know how that happened. another sure thing was Try My best. So it certainly can happen that these guineas knockers don't do it on the day.
I note your comment regards Dunguib. Well Dunguib, imo, was a bit unlucky at Cheltenham, conceding tons of ground, coming from well back and coming right round the outside of the whole field. He was also odd on to win. SNA is still available at 3 times the price of Dunguib. he is no sure thing of course, and people would have to make their own minds up regrds what is value. I would say he was a real 9/4 shot just now, these adds will shorten the nearer it gets to the Guineas without mishap.
I am old enough to remember a stone cold certainty - Appalachee losing at HQ, and I still don't know how that happened. another sure thing was Try My best. So it certainly can happen that these guineas knockers don't do it on the day.
Ive just watched the race again. Beethoven really got down to business and stormed up that hill in the Dewhurst. The application of headgear really improved him in my opinion - you could say he is exposed but you could argue that he's improved with racing.
I think there is every chance he could cause an upset on Guineas day. He's a Group 1 winner, recorded an excellent speed figure at Newmarket, tough, will improve as a 3yo (like his sire), handles the course, stays and was obviously highly thought of by Coolmore.
Just an opinion, I will probably be wrong but at 40/1+ I can afford to be wrong once in a while.
I think there is every chance he could cause an upset on Guineas day. He's a Group 1 winner, recorded an excellent speed figure at Newmarket, tough, will improve as a 3yo (like his sire), handles the course, stays and was obviously highly thought of by Coolmore.
Just an opinion, I will probably be wrong but at 40/1+ I can afford to be wrong once in a while.
Beethoven really got down to business and stormed up that hill in the Dewhurst. The application of headgear really improved him in my opinion - you could say he is exposed but you could argue that he's improved with racing.
I think there is every chance he could cause an upset on Guineas day. He's a Group 1 winner, recorded an excellent speed figure at Newmarket, tough, will improve as a 3yo (like his sire), handles the course, stays and was obviously highly thought of by Coolmore
Thats just it WAS highly thought of by Coolmore until the RPT,think why hes in the race!
I think there is every chance he could cause an upset on Guineas day. He's a Group 1 winner, recorded an excellent speed figure at Newmarket, tough, will improve as a 3yo (like his sire), handles the course, stays and was obviously highly thought of by Coolmore
Thats just it WAS highly thought of by Coolmore until the RPT,think why hes in the race!
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