I like Xtension at 33/1 with SJ. I think he goes straight to the Guineas.

I can barely contain my excitement

Beethoven is a fair form pick I guess. He at least has won a group 1 race, but its hard to get that excited about the dewhurst form. A small hanky would have covered the first 4 home and its unlikely that all 4 were brilliant. Out of the Dewhurst I think you need to try and pick one that might improve a load. The only 2 for me were Fencing Master and Steinbeck.

That is interesting push.
i am still not sure he'll stay a mile anyway.

Although at first glance you would think that Daylami, as the dam's sire, would give enough stamina to offset Oasis Dream's speed, there is actually a significant amount of sprint speed on the dam's side of his pedigree. Flying Childers winners, and a Prix de L'Abbey winner abound on the classy but very fast distaff side. A colt who is fast at 2, who is by a sprinter out of a miler from a fast family, just raises too many doubts for me in respect staying power.

Its also the case that the 6 furlong french race he won was, imo, a bit dubious formwise, with all 5 runners separated by about 1 length in total at the end. Its also the case that the race was very quick, and he broke the course record - the ground was very fast.
Arcano has a chance of course, if he turns up, but there is a great deal of difference between winning a fast ground sprint at 2, and taking the 2000 Guineas. I am of the view that both he and Canford Cliffs may find the later maturing more staying sorts a bit too strong at the end of a mile at Newmarket.

Cot
Oasis Dream whilst a speedster himself had pleny of stamina(class & speed) on his dams side
dam by Dancing Brave grand dam by Mill Reef & as with Midday can get horse staying further than the mile.

re: Arcano's stamina. I haven't traced the dam's side of the pedigree all the way back, but at first glance there is more than enough stamina on that side of Arcano's family to encourage hopes that he will get a mile (and possibly further).

Arcano is the first foal of Tariysha (by Daylami), an unraced half-sister to Tarwila, Tarbela, Tahara, Taraya and Teen Ager. The best guide to Arcano's chances of getting a mile lies in an analysis of these five:

1. Tarwila (by In The Wings) was a 9-12f winner at three and is the dam of Tarkani (by Spectrum, 8f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 2½m, placed over 3m), Tarvini (by Kalanisi, 12f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 3¼m) and Tarkesar (by Desert Prince, 9f winner on the flat and winning hurdler up to 2½m, placed over 3m).
2. Tarbela (by Grand Lodge) ran over 6-8f but was very modest and never won a race. She is the dam of Spiritual Healing (by Invincible Spirit, 6f winner on second and final start) and Big Audio (by Oratorio, winner of a couple of listed races as a juvenile last year over 7-8f).
3. Tahara (by Caerleon) is the dam of Godfrey Street (by Compton Place, multiple 5f winner), Gilt Edge Girl (by Monsieur Bond, 5-6f winner), Always Ready (by Best Of The Bests, 7f winner, placed over 8f) and Tamora (by Dr Fong, 7f winner, placed over 9f).
4. Taraya (by Doyoun) is the dam of Messager Du Roi (by King's Theatre, smart 10-11f winner).
5. Teen Ager (by Invincible Spirit) has won over 5-8f.

These five and Arcano's dam Tariysha are all out of the smart mare Tarwiya (by Dominion), who won the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at two and finished third to Marling in the Irish Guineas at three. Tariysha never raced but on breeding she could have been expected to get 10f, being by Daylami and therefore bred along similar lines to Tarwila (by strong stamina influence In The Wings), who won over 12f and has produced three winning hurdlers. Tariysha (by Daylami) is also quite closely related to Taraya (by Daylami's sire Doyoun), who has produced the smart 10-11f performer Messager Du Roi.

Arcano showed plenty of speed last year, winning all three starts over 6f, but there is every reason to believe that he will get a mile this year. Yes, there is quite a bit of speed in the pedigree (through Tarwiya) but a fair amount of stamina too. I believe that the Daylami influence for stamina will be the decisive factor. In my opinion he is more likely to get a mile than Canford Cliffs, who finished close behind him in the Morny. In both the July Stakes and the Prix Morny he looked as though a step up to 7f would suit. The Dewhurst would have been a suitable final race of the season for him.

As far as the Prix Morny form is concerned, I take the point about the bunched finish, but all five runners were previous Group race winners and had already shown a high level of form. I think it was a very good renewal.

Beethoven may be exposed but I think he ran an absolute belter at Newmarket. The visor seemed to help (his sire wore one a couple of times as well to sharpen him up) and he really knuckled down up that hill.

Oratorio had a busy campaign as a 2yo but ended the season as a Group 1 winner. I know that his form was better but I dont think that some of Beethoven's form is actually that bad. His effort in Santa Anita was not bad at all given he was virtually taken out on the first bend.

He is no way the most likely winner, if St Nicholas Abbey turns up then he quite rightly sets the standard....but there are no doubts about Beethoven's ability to stay, his sire improved as a 3yo (albeit over longer distances), he has won the Dewhurst in a pretty impressive time, according to Raceform had one of the top 2yo speed figures... yet is 69/1 (albeit for buttons).

Think you could do a lot worse thats all.

Not long to wait until we find out.

I haven't been following the 2000G market in the last couple of days, but there has been a lot of activity in the 1000G market today (see separate 1000 Guineas thread). I suspect that Tom will select one or more of the following: Music Show, Atasari, Pollenator, Hibaayeb, Eolith, Lady Darshaan, Devoted To You. If he picks a lightly-raced maiden winner it could well be Plume, as she has been the subject of glowing reports and is almost certain to go for the Guineas trial at Newbury (all the 33/1 and 25/1 was taken today).

Workforce or Fencing Master?

Awzaan for me.

It's AWZAAN

I don't disagree with you jamesp, except we arrive at slightly different conclusions from the same analysis. I worry for Arcano, as by a sprinter out of a miler (albeit one by a stayer), he has to have some racecourse evidence in the way he runs, that he will get better for further. He does seem to be a free running sort, unlike Awzaan, who settles. He was very fast at 2. I have lingering doubts about the form of his big win any way because every single runner in the Prix Morny apart from the winner was a very narrow loser. The form of the race is dubious, even despite the form of the filly in the Cheveley Park - she improved to win that race as she did.

In any event the matter may just be hypothetical for the 2000 Guineas as the owner may decide to go for the English Guineas with Awzaan and go to France with Arcano.

However I reckon he would be better waiting for the Kings Stand Stakes for Arcano, where he can have another battle with Canford Cliffs.

So they tip Awzaan on the day there's an article in the RP about it. Wow !

^Given the above post I have just had my Good Friday antepost wager on Viscount Nelson at 80/1 :)

cod liver oil brushed in,

Think Arcano is the value but with doubts over participation probably worth waiting, I think any double odds price represents value for a horse who has identical credntials to St nick abbeu (3 from 3 and G1 winner)

Evening Cry

You not concerned that SNA has beaten 2 40/1 shots for the 2000 and not much else?

Thank you MP

:)

Have you made a naked appearance at one of our fine racecourses yet MP???