Classics 2016
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Hi everyone not posted on the forum for a while but I love looking at pedigrees for the classic races. Interested to see what y'all think.
Had a good root around the pedigrees for the Derby entries and I don't think there's anything in Camelot's dam line to suggest he'll stay 12f. I know pedigrees are getting speedier but he'll have to be a lot lot better than the rest of the field to win by sheer class at the trip. I've got a feeling he'll end up winning a few 10f group ones but that could be the limit of his stamina. Trouble is who is classy enough with enough stamina in the pedigree to see him off in the last 2f? Putting up Thought Worthy as that Fairway race last time was quite good and Noble Mission is better than a lot of people think. Also I think he's improving and can get the better of Imperial Monarch on decent ground as it looks like Monarch had the better ground at Sandown and slogged it out- his pedigree is stouter and could be a leger type. Parish Hall is another possible as he won the Dewhurst but is bred to do well around 12f but how good is that form looking now? Seems that at the moment before the tapes go up in the Irish Guineas, Ektihaam is the only horse to come out of the race and excel and he was too keen to show his true running in the Dewhurst imo. Don't think either he or Bonfire would stay 12f as Bonfire's dam line isn't too stout and the only race his sire Manduro won at 12f was a French race with a handful of runners so probably not a true test at the trip. Not doubting the ability of Camelot or Bonfire in the slightest I just think with the prices as they are it might be worth taking the old fashioned stamina approach. Generally speaking you get a cast iron stayer 1st or 2nd in the Derby.
Had a good root around the pedigrees for the Derby entries and I don't think there's anything in Camelot's dam line to suggest he'll stay 12f. I know pedigrees are getting speedier but he'll have to be a lot lot better than the rest of the field to win by sheer class at the trip. I've got a feeling he'll end up winning a few 10f group ones but that could be the limit of his stamina. Trouble is who is classy enough with enough stamina in the pedigree to see him off in the last 2f? Putting up Thought Worthy as that Fairway race last time was quite good and Noble Mission is better than a lot of people think. Also I think he's improving and can get the better of Imperial Monarch on decent ground as it looks like Monarch had the better ground at Sandown and slogged it out- his pedigree is stouter and could be a leger type. Parish Hall is another possible as he won the Dewhurst but is bred to do well around 12f but how good is that form looking now? Seems that at the moment before the tapes go up in the Irish Guineas, Ektihaam is the only horse to come out of the race and excel and he was too keen to show his true running in the Dewhurst imo. Don't think either he or Bonfire would stay 12f as Bonfire's dam line isn't too stout and the only race his sire Manduro won at 12f was a French race with a handful of runners so probably not a true test at the trip. Not doubting the ability of Camelot or Bonfire in the slightest I just think with the prices as they are it might be worth taking the old fashioned stamina approach. Generally speaking you get a cast iron stayer 1st or 2nd in the Derby.
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All true Chico, but like you say, more and more they're getting bred for speed. As you've been able to crab virtually all the classy horses chances because of their pedigree, we're left with one of two scenarios. Either a stoutly bred outsider will cause a shock, or (and imv more likely) a classy one wins despite the trip being at the outer edge of their range.
FWIW with each passing year I think that the race is increasingly likely to throw up this quandry. Usually class will prevail, but we will get the odd shock and nearly always will there be an outsider placed.
FWIW with each passing year I think that the race is increasingly likely to throw up this quandry. Usually class will prevail, but we will get the odd shock and nearly always will there be an outsider placed.
Absolutely with you on the way pedigree trends have been going Des but it's still worth remembering that horses with some of the stouter breeding lines really come in to their own once they start trying mile and half plus trips. Also have you noticed the growing influence of German-bred horses having more runners and doing well in big races? Kazzia got the ball rolling in the Oaks a few years back. I'm more of a forecast/longshot ew bet man at the moment so I gamble on one of the less ideally-bred types getting outstayed by a horse like Thought Worthy/Astrology and having a bigger price horse in the frame. Perfectly prepared to look foolish if Camelot skates up but in the long run I've also done well at the longer distance classy races by adopting this approach. I genuinely think Bonfire is a talent but he's a classic nippy 10f horse in my opinion that could be perfectly suited to the International back at York.
Very interesting stuff you two, and I agree with all of it.
The interesting thing with this particular Derby is the class angle. I agree completely that class usually offsets stamina issues if they are slight and the opposition is not up to much.
The conundrum for me is that I have yet to be convinced that Camelot is that good. He looked superb in the Racing Post Trophy but it was a nothing race really, even though there were a few solid markers in there, and then he was only so-so in the Guineas. I appreciate there are two ways of looking at that, and you could argue he did well to win on horrible ground but still, I think the bare form is nothing exceptional.
Coupling this feeling with the quandary about whether he stays suggests to me he is quite a bit too skinny in the markets. I am not a very educated pedigree man but came to the same conclusion as chico did. Allied to this is the visual impression that although he looks sure to be suited by further than a mile, I see plenty of speed in him and if he were a handicapper being readied for a big 12-furlong race I would most likely think he would struggle to get the extra distance. We can become a bit complacent about these beautifully bred horses that win Group Ones seeming certain to stay because Aidan and co tell us they will, but they are just horses at the end of the day and plenty fail to get home. It's not easy for any animal to go from a mile to 12 furlongs in Group One company in only a few weeks.
Personally, at the prices, I'd definitely prefer to take a chance on Bonfire getting home, as he looked impressive to me at York and is no less sure to get the trip than Camelot.
The interesting thing with this particular Derby is the class angle. I agree completely that class usually offsets stamina issues if they are slight and the opposition is not up to much.
The conundrum for me is that I have yet to be convinced that Camelot is that good. He looked superb in the Racing Post Trophy but it was a nothing race really, even though there were a few solid markers in there, and then he was only so-so in the Guineas. I appreciate there are two ways of looking at that, and you could argue he did well to win on horrible ground but still, I think the bare form is nothing exceptional.
Coupling this feeling with the quandary about whether he stays suggests to me he is quite a bit too skinny in the markets. I am not a very educated pedigree man but came to the same conclusion as chico did. Allied to this is the visual impression that although he looks sure to be suited by further than a mile, I see plenty of speed in him and if he were a handicapper being readied for a big 12-furlong race I would most likely think he would struggle to get the extra distance. We can become a bit complacent about these beautifully bred horses that win Group Ones seeming certain to stay because Aidan and co tell us they will, but they are just horses at the end of the day and plenty fail to get home. It's not easy for any animal to go from a mile to 12 furlongs in Group One company in only a few weeks.
Personally, at the prices, I'd definitely prefer to take a chance on Bonfire getting home, as he looked impressive to me at York and is no less sure to get the trip than Camelot.
I'd rather be with Bonfire too Tom, Yorks extended 10f takes a bit of getting and he didn't look to be stopping at the end. I think he has just the right blend of class and stamina to win the race and in any other year would be a pretty warm order.
However, whilst I would usually be a layer of an odds-on Guineas winner in a Derby, and the last 40 years is littered with plenty of shorties that haven't done the double, I'm finding this one harder to oppose. Had he run a staying on 3rd in the Guineas beaten a couple of lengths, which for a horse with his pedigree and stated aims would have been the perfect prep, he would be 3/1 on the day and you would be a mug not to back him. But he won it, not because he had out speeded them, but because he was just better. It was quite reminiscent of how STS won his Guineas en route to the Derby, just getting home at a distance short of his best (although that one could've won Gp1s at any distance from 6f, in all likelihood). I won't be backing him at those prices, but outside of Bonfire, I can't really find one to beat him. Unimaginative, i know
However, whilst I would usually be a layer of an odds-on Guineas winner in a Derby, and the last 40 years is littered with plenty of shorties that haven't done the double, I'm finding this one harder to oppose. Had he run a staying on 3rd in the Guineas beaten a couple of lengths, which for a horse with his pedigree and stated aims would have been the perfect prep, he would be 3/1 on the day and you would be a mug not to back him. But he won it, not because he had out speeded them, but because he was just better. It was quite reminiscent of how STS won his Guineas en route to the Derby, just getting home at a distance short of his best (although that one could've won Gp1s at any distance from 6f, in all likelihood). I won't be backing him at those prices, but outside of Bonfire, I can't really find one to beat him. Unimaginative, i know
Should read that I would rather be with Bonfire at the prices.
Camelot will try and run the race to suit him for starters and he is by montjeu who is a very strong influence on stamina and the dam stayed 1m2f top class 1m2f horses can win the derby without 1m4f being their most suitable trip. This is were i think Bonfire comes in my gut feeling and the kind of vibes you get is that bonfire is a bit special. He would have beaten the same horse Camelot beat in the 2000 on only his second start and that was in a group one. His Dante form I think is as strong he will improve for the run the second that day was race fit and will be a solid group 2 performer throughout the season. On form there is nothing between Camelot and Bonfire and at the prices 5/1 v 4/7 it is a no brainier to back bonfire. People assume that Camelot will improve more than Bonfire and I dont see why that is. Camelot would have to been a lot more forward than bonfire to win a 2000 even though he will still improve a bit for it , it wont be as much as bonfire improves and at the very least I expect bonfire to make a very close race of it.
Not in complete agreement with the statement concerning the run at Sandown chico quito -
Also I think he's improving and can get the better of Imperial Monarch on decent ground as it looks like Monarch had the better ground at Sandown and slogged it out
John Gosden, said in an interview for the Racing Post that the ground that day at Sandown wasn't that much different due to a hurdles race a few days before if my memory serves me correct! Just saying Gosden who trains Thought Worthy was impressed with Imperial Monarch along with William Haggas and many others! I think on better ground he would again beat Thought Worthy! Agree with the doubt over Camelot tho - I can't be a backer at his current price!
Also I think he's improving and can get the better of Imperial Monarch on decent ground as it looks like Monarch had the better ground at Sandown and slogged it out
John Gosden, said in an interview for the Racing Post that the ground that day at Sandown wasn't that much different due to a hurdles race a few days before if my memory serves me correct! Just saying Gosden who trains Thought Worthy was impressed with Imperial Monarch along with William Haggas and many others! I think on better ground he would again beat Thought Worthy! Agree with the doubt over Camelot tho - I can't be a backer at his current price!
Fair point Bruce I think you may be right, I certainly wouldn't argue the toss with Gosden who is a good judge. I've looked at the sandown race a few times and to be honest if we were looking at a Gp3 race or the Kind Edward the VII I'd be a backer of thought worthy but I came to the conclusion that he just isn't quite up to the job and that he was outclassed as well as outstayed at Sandown. I'm coming round to Tom and Hawk's way of thinking regarding Bonfire- at the prices looks a top class horse in the making. Well worth a go at around 4 or 5/1 anyway and he should be placed. Astrology looks the safe bet pedigree- wise his damline is stacked full of classic talent with a bit of speed from Cure the Blues thrown in for good measure. My 3 against the field atm would be Bonfire, astrology and a crazy one Minimise Risk. Just think he might improve on the faster ground and stick on for a place.
Camelot`s Great Great Grandam - "One Over Parr" Won Both the Cheshire and Lancashire Oaks 12F,
After "New Aproach" was able to Win a Derby,i have No doubts about Camelot Staying the Trip and Winning.
After "New Aproach" was able to Win a Derby,i have No doubts about Camelot Staying the Trip and Winning.
camelot,s price is very short ..better value with his stable mate e/w.1/4 odds most shops.
well I got that one spectacularly wrong! Camelot is obviously a cut above that lot but I'm still mystified as to why Bonfire went out like a light (pardon the pun)- any theories?
sweated badly before the race, wasnt a guaranteed stayer.
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