Classics 2016
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16 Jun 11
20:17
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06 Feb 06
anyone see any viable opposition to this on saturday evs could look big come sat afternoon whats
the opinion?
the opinion?
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Replies: 48
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Looks a cracking bet to me, poor field this year
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This is just another simple canter on the way to winning the Arc.
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You read my mind, placed a large bet at evens this afternoon, should beat this lot comfortably.
One of the bets of the week. |
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I had a large bet @ 5/4 with PP the other day.
What gets near it? Ran to 125 at Chester and nothing in this field capable of posting that kind of figure. Banker |
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For me the value in the race is Passion For Gold with Barzalona !!!
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You guys must be mad. Evs on heavy ground? Not proven over trip on the ground? Lay for me.
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Unless things go against him he could slam the lot of them like Harbinger did last year. Has won on heavy ground and looks like he wants 12f.
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Everything in the field looks so so, Await The Dawn has a group 1 profile in a sub standard group 2, the grounds no issue.The colt won his maiden by 4 lengths on heavy the only thing that will beat him is if its not meant to be! Good luck and all the best
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Leftfield long shot is Harris Tweed.If its a bog.
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The colt won his maiden by 4 lengths on heavy the only thing that will beat him is if its not meant to be.
another horse may beat him.Are you saying there could be unseen forces/god playing a hand in this. also i disagree that he has a 'group 1 profile' he's won two gp 3s,the last of which he beat good handicappers and gp 3 at best horses. i'm not saying he can't win but,especially for a horse who hasn't even run over tommorrows distance,his price stinks,imo. |
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Yes he won a maiden on ground with cut, but what was behind him?! He might have won that day but it holds no value when assessing the race tomorrow.
Godolphin run 3, Coolmore beware! |
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just seen that the 2nd fav was tailed off at Wolverhampton last Autumn
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I can only presume this horse is better than his form because he`s no world beater judged on that.
The Arc!!!  This is the worst value horse bet I`ve seen for months at current prices. |
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Worst value bet?
He ran an RPR of 125 last time out. Workforce won The Arc running to 129 last year. I got 5/4 against a field of Group 2 horses and handicappers. One of the best 5/4 shots you'll see |
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I sincerely hope you don`t rely solely on RPRs for your punting.
And what significance a poor Gr3 around Chester has on this stiff, wet 12f Gr2 is beyond me! |
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He posted an OR of 120 on Good to Firm at Chester, over 10f. Do you seriously believe that has any relevance over 12f on what will prove to be heavy / bottomless ground at Ascot today?! You're kidding yourself!
First Samurai (Giants Causeway - Freddie Frisson (Dixieland Band)) and Spruce (Maria's Mon - Valentine Band (Dixieland Band)) do nothing to suggest that the progeny want a trip. Fav get's stuck in the mud, layers take a 2-0 lead on the day :) |
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He didn't post an OR of 120. He was allocated a mark of 120 taking into account of his win at Leopardstown and went into the Chester race rated 120 on his previous form.
He ran to 93 on debut and very few post a figure that high, and did so on soft to heavy ground so we know he handles it. He "stormed clear" at Chester looking better the further he went. The time before at Leopardstown he stayed on strongly and drew clear over 1m2f on good ground. So taking into account winning over 1m on heavy ground on debut as a 2yr old, then being massively impressive the last twice over further and on all different grounds, he looks a proper animal and in a different league to this lot today. |
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The horse he beat so impressively on his debut is banging around in hurdles already!
And I said he was a terrible bet at current prices. Which is not 5/4 if you haven`t noticed! |
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"We know he handles it"
Nope - he beat trees on debut and Banyan Tree aside (Who was a duff stable mate), the field achieved average ratings in the 60s and 70s. Still think that proves him as an animal who acts on soft?! Good luck to you fella, you're going to need plenty. |
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How did he get on in his previous effort in this grade?
The race he won at L`town was awful and well slower than Cape Blancos CS win. I think he`s overrated. Handled with kid gloves for some reason. Wont fancy it today. Good luck. You`ll need it! |
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For me the fact he is going up to 12 furlongs (Giant only ran over 1m 2f) is enough to put me off.
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two massive negatives:
never run on soft never run at the stamina distance of 12f can see it going out like a light.lay for me. |
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I was very impressed with ATD, both last year at Leopardstown and again at Chester, where he clocked an excellent time and the form looks solid. However, when a horse gets this short in the betting you have to look for possible negatives. Stamina and ground are the obvious ones, but he looked very much a stayer on his debut over a mile, where the ground was heavy. It could be argued that race didn't prove much as it was against minor opposition, but it was a fair time for the conditions.
My main worry with this horse is how well he takes his racing. To be so lightly raced at this stage he has obviously had his problems. After that good debut win he came over for the Champagne Stakes and absolutely bombed. Again, after he bolted up at Leopardstown he looked like the Champion Stakes was at his mercy, but he was withdrawn when connections weren't satisfied with him. |
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even though there are many reasons to lay money still seems to come for it into 8/11 right across the board now and 4/6 on the exchanges.
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All backers of ATD just sit back and watch the money come in,any worries about the trip and ground are not even issues for this horse,is so far above this lot and a proper group 1 horse,will win very easily and could stretch a long way clear on this ground (possibly even 10-15 length winner)
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AOB - 14 runners at Ascot, 6 Favs or Joint Favs, 2 winners.
It's not just trip and ground to worry about for you odds-on backers! Under the cosh from the turn in. 1.67?? Pfft. |
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Since ATD is so odds on to win, doesn't it makes sense to bet on the 2nd and 3rd favourites to be placed... or is that not a good idea
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Since ATD is so odds on to win, doesn't it makes sense to bet on the 2nd and 3rd favourites to be placed... or is that not a good idea
There is no clear cut second / third favs. Pricewise put up Poet this morning so he has shortened, Passion For Gold should have no ground doubts, Laaheb could be place material, Drunken Sailor will definitely stay. Only three places available. Hard to call it. |
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IMO Passion For Gold is the bet here. The horse won a Group 1 in France as a 2 year old over 10f on heavy going so any rain will be a big plus. This horse at 15 to win and 3.2 to place is a cracking bet.
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IMHO AWD will either win or flop, cant see it being second, ive taken POG rev with DS and CB in rfcs in the search of copping a decent f/c
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I agree about POG, his win last time didn't really reveal much but as has been said, he was a very good 2yo and we often see these 4yos make belated improvement after either skipping or having a poor 3yo season.
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* PFG
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this horse has the potential to be a star but to many unknowns to be backing it at the current price.
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ATD done at evens with a small e.w savour on PFG done happy with that!
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Calvados Blues worth a look in this @16/1 ew.
Should have beaten Rewilding in Dubai back in March(Group 1) over today's distance.Stumbled early,Frankie wouldn't let him out when making his run,checked and switched more than once and still got third. Murtagh who won on him previously back on today. Obvious ground/course unknowns but I'm sure I'll back worse 16/1 shots this year. |
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Why did it touch around 1.87 there?!
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Campanolist place bet for me
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 well done backers |
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passion was terrible
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