Classics 2016
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The price of Frankel , 4/11 , is a bit of a surprise.
He slammed the second fav Excelebration in the Greenham when he was unfit. Beat the 3rd fav Dubawi gold 5 lengths in the guineas
when the pace of the race ment dubawi gold was flattered. Wootten Bassett looks like he hasn't trained on. Dream ahead maynot
run and may prefer a straight track and shorter trip. Frankel could run 3 lengths below form and still win comfortably. Cecil has also
stated that he things frankel has improved. The only way he can get beat is if he goes lame, is doped, or if there is a deluge of
rain making the ground heavy. None look likely and by the off I'd be surprised if he's not 1/4 or 1/5. His true odds are probably near 1/7.
He slammed the second fav Excelebration in the Greenham when he was unfit. Beat the 3rd fav Dubawi gold 5 lengths in the guineas
when the pace of the race ment dubawi gold was flattered. Wootten Bassett looks like he hasn't trained on. Dream ahead maynot
run and may prefer a straight track and shorter trip. Frankel could run 3 lengths below form and still win comfortably. Cecil has also
stated that he things frankel has improved. The only way he can get beat is if he goes lame, is doped, or if there is a deluge of
rain making the ground heavy. None look likely and by the off I'd be surprised if he's not 1/4 or 1/5. His true odds are probably near 1/7.
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If you've got the three etc etc
We dont know what the race at Newmarket has done to him, yes he should win but we've seen these hotpots done before and its going to be a long week trying to get it back if it does go pear shaped |
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how many horses go off shorter than 1-3 in group ones though?
i'm sure its the advent of betfair that leads to the compression of prices in these big races now. I think before betfair you would have got more generous prices about horses' like frankel and so you think in the princess of wales. remember zafonic who won the guineas in 1993? was as equally impressive as frankel was in his guineas, was sent off around evs for his next run, the sussex stakes, broke a blood vessel and never raced again. anything is possible, frankel could boil over in the parade ring, he could pull his head off, he could get injured so doesn't even run, etc. i'd rather take 1.2 knowing he's actually in the stalls and racing rather than take 1.3 something now and he doesn't turn up. |
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So you think has to be taken on at that price
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so you think is one of the most over-hyped horses' in racing history
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Hopefully it will be a total demolition job and the doubters after the Guineas will perhaps see the light and hail the wonder horse.
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only one wonder horse...............Champion.
 Frankel looks a real goodun,but some way to go to be labelled wonder horse imo |
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The St James Palace is usually the placed horses from the English, Irish, French, German guineas. So the standard is a little up from a Guineas on its own. He should win, but its not a penalty kick.
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listening to Henry he seems to really think Frankel might be one of the greats.
He may well be a 140 horse. If he is he will win at Ascot very easily before going on form there, probably over further. Interesting that Henry seemed to rule out going to Goodwood. I wonder where he will go to after Ascot? Maybe since he will have had 2 races in May and one in June he'll give him a break. I do seem to recall Henry talking about the international at York - its a race he likes. maybe he'll go to York then back to Ascot for the QE11 and then the champion Stakes. |
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The race is in some ways pointless for Frankel as he's just running against the same horses he's already
beaten very easily. Its like a boxing re-match were the first encounter was totally one sided. He needs to take on the older horses or run at a different trip. Frankel cann't gain anything by running , why not save energy for races later on. |
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If he's not running in the Sussex (where he could meet Canford CLiffs and/or Dick Turpin) where is he going? Cecil has won the Judddemont international only once in its 38 years but this could be the chap to change it ... Certainly an easier 10 than the Eclipse I suppose with the Sandown hill factored in?
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I was wondering this as well somerset.
However Henry made it clear that he was not going to meet the older hoses at Goodwood and he seldom changes his mind about these things. I suspect he could go straight to York as you say, as he will have had three races already. If you think of the season as a 6 race jiob, he could go to York for his 4th race and still take in Ascot and Newmarket. Of course he could take in the irish Champion Stakes en route too, that would make it 7 races even missing out Goodwood. |
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Now that the ground is good to soft his true odds are nowhere near 1/7 and are probably around the 1/2 mark.
Dream ahead has a lot of ability on soft ground and if its geniunely soft its not impossible he could get near to frankel. |
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what do we think frankel will win by? hills betting on distances more thn 5 lenghts 5/2 thats my
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5 lenghts or more at 5/2 my only bet on race
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With the rain after getting into the ground, I wouldn't be surprised if they ride him with more restraint tomorrow, comfortable 2 to 3L victory for me.
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The gates open
Frankel comes out The others fight for the places I agree Tinkler can not see him losing now other than going lame. Distance - tick, Form - tick, Going -tick, Trainer - tick Not very original but when chances like this come along you've got to jump in with both feet and fill your boots. |
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Correct Trajan.
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the layers will be seething after offering such a big price.
how after the 2000 can people offer 1.38?? |
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McCririck interviewed a bookie at Windsor tonight, the guy said Frankel could touch 4/9 on course.
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It'll be great for racing if he wins like that again , but that MUST have taken a bit out of him and wasn't it a crap guineas ??
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He had a good break though.
It would be fantastic to see him thrash this lot by a decent distance. If he really settles and uses his speed through the last 3 furlongs he could win without stress by over 8 lengths. |
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^
hmmmm believe it when I see it |
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money for old rope hes a 1/4 ....2/9 shot in my book.
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we all love frankel but he is no Zafonic who won his guineas in a time which was nearly 5 secs faster than frankels and on slower ground...dream ahead was a super 2 year old and could prove value today with ground conditions in his favour...he merits huge each way value at 12's plus..better than 1/3 frankel...
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Before backing Dream Ahead, you would have to satisfy yourself that he's going to get a mile, which considering he was beaten half the track the only time he's raced beyond six furlongs, is known to need plenty of cut in the ground, and is having his first run of the season, is a bit of a shot in the dark. As such, there is no way he can represent "huge value."
If I were going to have a bet in the race, knowing that Frankel is head and shoulders above the European challengers, I would have to side with the Japanese beast. As it is, I will just watch the best horse we have seen in decades add another chapter to his legend. |
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the ground is getting dryer by the minute.
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Everyone keeps saying Dream Ahead wants cut in the ground , but his only poor run came on G/S ???
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dream ahead can't be judged on his last run as he ran to poorly before the trip 7F could be seen as an issue..he had ran 15 days before that and won easily but it took more out of him than ppl thought.he is 3 now and stronger and should get a mile..he also runs well fresh and i believe there is no way this horse would of been entered in a mile race of this calibre by simcock against frankel without showing lots at home...i am not sayin he will beat frankel but i would be surprised if he was out of first 3.....
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They may be taking their lead from the man who trains the horse, who is clearly of the opinion that the horse needs cut.
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He goes well fresh? Sure he won first time out as a juvenile - but not one of the horses he beat on that occasion have won on the turf since. I think there are a couple of Wolverhampton winners and a Southwell winner among them.
He can't be backed imo. Time will tell, I guess. |
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I think Frankel has a reasonable chance in this
Not the best miler around by far, but a this, a cheap Gr1, will never look bad on the cv. How he comes out of this will determine the targets for later, International and Champion look the way to go for me right now. Lets hope he doesn't blow out |
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u seem to b avoiding dream aheads group one wins tuck..after nottingham he won a group one on only his second start(and travelled to do so to france)..not to mention his 9L demolition of strong suit in the middle park.sayin he beat nothing at nottingham doesnt even come into it,a horse can only beat wats but in front of him....frankel beat him on an off day in my opinion....as u say time will tell...20's on betfair is too big for me..have to back him eachway at those odds...
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Dream Ahead is a sprinter imo
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dav simcock on ATR IN A MO..anyone interested:_)))
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Good luck whatever you do imo.
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ykickamoocow Date Joined: 01 Jul 10
Add contact | Send message When: 14 Jun 11 11:22 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 124 | Blogger: ykickamoocow's blog we all love frankel but he is no Zafonic who won his guineas in a time which was nearly 5 secs faster than frankels and on slower ground. Do you have a problem with maths? Zafonic 1:35.32 Frankel 1:37.30 thats nearly 2 seconds in my book not 5. |
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I wonder if they can supplement Frankel for the Gold Cup now
2m4f seems to be the next step |
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got it wrong with dream ahead today....hands up...not a race i would care to watch again...shocking
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I wonder if they can supplement Frankel for the Gold Cup now
2m4f seems to be the next step maybe the national too? |