Classics 2016
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09 Jun 11
14:47
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Date Joined:
01 Mar 03
Come on then!
Only 83 delarations at the five day stage. Should be a piece of pi$$.
I'm the type who always look for a sneaky each way bet at biggish odds so INVINCIBLE SOUL at 33's looks of interest.
Lousy win to run ratio (1/12) but still a relatively unexposed 4 y o dropping down from Listed company at a decent weight and with good Royal Ascot form over the straight mile cavalry charge, having come second in the Britannia last year.
Need to suss out the draw etc at the overnight stage but a couple of quid e/w at this stage....
Only 83 delarations at the five day stage. Should be a piece of pi$$.
I'm the type who always look for a sneaky each way bet at biggish odds so INVINCIBLE SOUL at 33's looks of interest.
Lousy win to run ratio (1/12) but still a relatively unexposed 4 y o dropping down from Listed company at a decent weight and with good Royal Ascot form over the straight mile cavalry charge, having come second in the Britannia last year.
Need to suss out the draw etc at the overnight stage but a couple of quid e/w at this stage....
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Replies: 31
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I was told that the trainer is sweet on this ones chances just earlier today funnily enough. Hard old race with a couple of real solid ones at the top of the market as well, Fareer likes it here and ran a fair race at York where he didnt get a run and was allowed to come home in his own time.
You just know that theres going to be a bias(switching around on friday or saturday  ) i suspect that they will go middle to far side earlier in the week, i'll leave it for now although i have backed Lui Rei in the Wokingham |
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That sounds a reasonable poke Roger.
Im going to wait until final decs before looking at this race. Supposed to be some rain around early week. |
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I also looked at the race today and came up with Invincible Soul as the value at 25/1 (didn't see any 33/1 with the bookies).
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Eton Forever/Balducci
done  |
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Both Invincible soul & Invisible Man both ran well at this meeting last year. Are godolphin also going to run Laajooj?
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33/1 all gone for Invincible Soul (loads of blue on Oddschecker against it today.
Agree the top of the market looks about right with Green Destiny a potential group horse so impressive on 2000 Guineas Day at Nemarket and Start Right impressing last weekend. Think 91 (or around 8-05 weight)will be the cut off mark. If it rains, GUNNER LINDLEY comes into contention off a low weight. Unexposed and goes well in these big field events |
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Think Gunners out this weekend Rog, i think he's only won round a bend as well, got quite a soft lead when he won at York last year when he came nearside on soft ground
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Cant see invisible man winning
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Invinsible Soul 33/1 nanny goat.
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Agree with zilzal1 ref Fareer although does carry a hefty burden, have a soft spot for the horse having backed it to win the Britannia in 2009.
Also have quiet fancy for Sooraah from the Haggas stable, seems to have been put away for this after running an eyecatching 2nd over course and distance at the beginning of may. Of course the draw might have a postive or disastrous effect for some who take an early stand?, the clerk will of course say there should be no draw bias but as we have seen so many times down the years the draw at Ascot can be vital, even altered it one year to negate the effect and sent the draw bias to the other side of the track, punters were left bewildered. The King Stand and Coventry should at least give us some idea if there's any significant bias before wednesday. |
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dolphin INVINCIBLE SOUL now down to 16's with the nanny glad i took the 38s on here a couple of weeks ago
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Green now 6s across the board, thieving skum
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Mont Agel will enjoy the rain. Anyone care to speculate why Hayley Turner does not ride? Accident or design ... does Bell want someone stronger in the finish, like Murtagh!! Hayley rides one for J.Osborne.
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Do we thik it will dry out much by Wednesday?
Good to soft today but no rain forecast. Probably be good all round - the going stick seems to indicate the centre of the track is the place to be, but history shows it's guesswork. |
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I am going with Ryan Moore’s mount he rode the horse last time and won lets hope for another success.
WED 16.25 DANCE AND DANCE |
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hes already saying it will good on the straight course tomorrow.
Perfect ground. oh and Point North will win it. 10/1 available |
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Been looking at this since the decs came out.
I think the pace will be Stands side (high numbers) with KAY GEE BE (33) and HACIENDA (26) cutting out the running. Can't see any trailblazers drawn mid-to-low. Certainly seemed to be a high draw bias in the Windsor Castle Stakes which rounded off today. This all comes with a warning that of all the tracks in the country, for me, the straight course at Ascot is the biggest b1tch going when it comes to the effect of the draw. So, I'm looking for a progressive 4 year old, drawn high-to-mid. Step forward JULIENAS It's never raced on a stright track, but has won on the AW (which I like to see since Ascot has been relaid, it seems to favour those that act on the AW)and was outfoxed by a course specialist at Sandown last time, leading the rest of the pack that came down the 'wrong' side, before gettin just touched off for second. Ahern (winner today) replaces Kirby and this booking is generally a noteworthy one by Swinburn. With only 8 career starts under his belt and at peak fitness after that Sandown run, he'll do for me at around 20/1. Also like the look of POINT NORTH at the bottom of the weights, but he may be drawn on the wrong side. Should improve as a 4 yo (closely related to Pilsudski) and represents men of the moment Noseda and Barzelona |
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Think Point North could be ready to explode in this one, has a ridiculously good pedigree and is coming in off a featherweight.
Like Super Say offering each way claims won a decent handicap at the Curragh last month and is lightly raced and relatively unexposed. |
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Tim dim but nice is a clown, was faster going at Newmarket
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Added Proponent eachway. He may be getting on a bit but he usually runs his race and it's not often he gets to carry 8st8 in one of these big h'caps, he usually has at least 9st4. Stall 19 seems just right.
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Fareer 25/1
I think this quirky old dog might just run a decent race a t a very decent price He certainly has the ability to win this and his last race was very eyecatching imo and looks to have been laid out for this ( as have many ) I am willing to take a chance and have bet this at 25/1 and also had a decent ew bet on Mont Agel but allas The Couch has put this one up it's doooomed, doooomed I tell ya |
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Brick Red and Pinctura on sire stats at course , trip and race standard both have good shouts imo
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Fareer for me but its saddled with a 10lb penalty
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Eton Forever and Breakheart
Initally put up Balducci but that wins the Wolferton gl |
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The draw played a major part in this race no coincidence the winner and 2nd came up the near rail, my two bets Sooraah and Fareer were both greatly inconvenienced by their respective draws, Richard Hills made the right decision to tack onto the main group stand side, but had no choice but to race out wide of that group, still finished a close up 7th after travelling extremely well with his big weight, as for Soorah ok he had only 3 to beat his side but beat them a country mile but never had a prayer with the main bunch.
One of these days Ascot might sort out this ridiculous draw bias that rears its ugly head year in year out. You don't mind losing your money fair and square but in truth I never had a chance like many others!. |
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Rather than automatically blame the draw bias we also need to question the jockeys.
In the Hunt Cup over a straight mile just about everything congregated towards the stands rail. An hour later in the Sandringham, also over the straight mile, each and every one of the jocks stayed in the centre of the track. I know the stalls position has an impact in smaller fields but even so.............. |
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Yeh that did seem pretty weird destroyer?, almost like the jockeys congregated together in the weighing room and said right lads there seems to be a draw bias the far rail is a no go area, so rather than we all make a beeline to the stand rail where some of us might find ourselves behind a wall of horse we'll all come up the centre so everyone can have an equal chance and no bad luck in running.
Say again, pretty goddamn weird!. |
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Phooking textbook!!!!
Could have done without the 10 minutes stewards enquiry |
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Well played Rog
This bias could disappear soon, mind you we are due some rain during the next three days so play it race by race |
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Don't think there is a draw bias.
There is a pace bias and all modesty aside - it panned out just like I predicted above. |