Qipco 2000 Guineas. Saturday 30th April 2011

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 30th April when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years with 6 of the last 9 going to horses from across the Irish Sea. Last year, Makfi became the first French-trained winner since Pennekamp won it in 1995.

The trends for the past 10 years:

Breeding

Irish bred: 6-11-72
British bred: 3-6-64
American bred: 1-1-39
French bred: 0-2-4
German bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 from 40% of the total runners
8 of 10 winners were by a sire who had finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (other 2 sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile).
10 of 10 winners were by a sire who’d won a group 1 over 6F to 8F

Recent Form
8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut
7 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket, Curragh or Gowran Park
7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten)
8 of 10 winners had won 2+ races (1 exceptions had run just once)
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)
10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (2 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners had won at group level (1 exception placed in a group 2 and other had run just once, winning his maiden)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (3 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
3 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 6 were having first run here)

2yo Races

National Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2105125 (2-2-7)
Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 914822 (1-2-6)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 3516 (1-1-4)
Futurity Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2482 (0-2-4)
Solario Stakes winner (Native Khan): 03004 (0-1-5)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Casamento): 06 (0-0-2)
Tattersalls Stakes winner (Rerouted): 080 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 233
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11

3yo Trials

Craven Stakes winner (Native Khan): 97160025 (1-1-8)
Greenham Stakes winner (Frankel): 630662 (0-2-6)
Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-4-32) have won the race 6 times since 2001.
Aidan O’Brien (4-1-25) has trained 4 winners of the race in the past 10 years including 3 of the last 6.
Barry Hills (1-1-8) and Michael Stoute (1-0-10) are the only other 2 trainers with entrants, to have won it in past 10 years.
Richard Hannon (0-4-15), Jim Bolger (0-2-3) and David Elsworth (0-2-5) have all filled multiple places in the past decade.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-17) last won the race in 1999 but has only seen 1 of his 17 runners make the frame in the past 10 years.
Price
7 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 9/2 and 11/1 but there have been a few upsets recently with 2 of the last 4 winners going off at 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-3-10) have a poor recent record with just 1 winner in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Sired by a group 1 over 1M that finished in first 4 in a 2000 Guineas
·         Born before 07/04/2008
·         Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 86+
·         Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)
·         Finished in the first 3 last time & posted highest RPR
·         Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)
·         Won a group race
·         Won the National Stakes
·         Won over 7F or 8F
·         Trained in Ireland, especially by Aidan O’Brien

Frankel looks solid but maybe has a chink or two (maybe) have sided with Pathfork as the Harrington yard has done me some favours and Pathfork is a big raw colt who has the stamina and breeding to upset the apple cart. Notes after the run in the national stakes ;-

A first win at Group 1 level for trainer Jessica Harrington and jockey Fran Berry with PATHFORK retaining his unbeaten record and following up his win in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes over course and trip last month with a game victory on very different ground to last time.

The official description was changed to soft after the first race. In the immediate aftermath of the race Harrington was uncertain whether the winner, who fully justified the decision to supplement him at a cost of Euro 20,000 will run again this season, while Berry reported that the colt "never enjoyed the soft ground at any stage".

Ridden prominently as had been the case on his previous start, Pathfork went to the front just over 2f out and, while the runner-up Casemento came back at him in the closing stages, he stuck to his task and held on in a photo-finish. With conditions less than ideal for him, he remains an exacting prospect for next year and a genuine contender for the 2,000 Guineas, for which he is now 10-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill (from 14 and 12 respectively. He remains 12-1 with Paddy Power for the Newmarket Classic.



You cannot overlook the chances of Casemento either his win at Doncaster over a mile This final Group 1 of the domestic season has a rich history and, while the past three runnings proved to be something of a red herring, three previous winners of the race in the past decade went on to taste Classic success.

It was a mixed bunch in attendance this year and there was a very strong Irish challenge. They raced down the centre of the track and there was just an average early pace on. Things began to get serious nearing the three-furlong marker and the first pair dominated throughout the final 2f, making their efforts more towards the stands´ side late on. Strong form.

CASAMENTO, who was supplemented for the race, made it three wins from four career outings with a game display on his return to the top level, completing the task witha fair amount left in the tank, and gave his trainer a first winner in class. He didn´t need to his best when coming home a clear-cut winner in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes over this trip at the Curragh in September - the same race that last year´s stunning winner St Nicholas Abbey landed before coming here - and his short-head defeat to the unbeaten Pathfork in the National Stakes over 7f at the same venue earlier that month made him the clear form pick in this field. Frankie Dettori was aboard for thisBritish debut and he delivered him to lead nearing 2f out. Seville threw down a strong challenge at the furlong marker and looked a big danger, but the winner was probably idling somewhat as he picked up again to assert his authority nearing the finish.

all looks good for Frankel but wasnt that the case for Xaar, Celtic Swing, Dubawi, New Approach and St Nicholas Abbey

has he trained on tho? he beat an 89 rated 25/1 shot by 4 L, surely this just tells us his legs still work!

Is the breeding an issue here?

Granted I know little where the bloodstock world is concerned, but the statistic that 10 of the last 10 Guineas winning sires had won over 6f-8f is worrying - Galileo won three Group Ones over 12f and only ever once at a mile or less, his maiden.

His progeny such as Rip Van Winkle, New Approach, Lush Lashes and Gan Amhras all ran well in the Guineas (but none won) before doing better over further later in the season. He's never really had an outstanding miler has he? Bar Rip Van Winkle who for a long time looked a bit tripless.

Of course, these statistics of sorts have to come to an end sometime, but surely the value call is to keep following them until such a time comes that they are eventually broken.

Well he's still not technically had to get out from behind a crowd, but then with that pace and stride... who needs to?

He ran with the choke out all the way. I'd review that thought or it may cost you.

Frankel gets RPR of 133, making him highest-rated Guineas winner since service started in 1988.

I told you he couldn't be beat. Essexguy - where are you now huh! I can't hear you.

We are really scared of him lol - NOT!