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Greyhounds
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These 162 comments are related to the topic:
Draw 3rd round
Draw 3rd round
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Replies: 162
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Are you coming out Mr Woodmanchester ?
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They've priced 2 races horrendously wrong in my opinion.
In what world is Clares Wonder a 7/4 or 15/8 shot?? The dog is plotted to high heaven. Then Viking Jack 9/4 and 5/2? I would not be able to argue had they put Droopys Ward and Viking Jack in the opposite way, Jack has a great draw and has to lead out wide and then it's a case of where Droopys Ward turns, he should be favourite. Also if oddschecker is correct how did they make Rio Quattro 11/4? He has a brilliant draw as well although he is short enough now at 11/8 and 11/10 |
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3 to lay then
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Droopys Ward 9/4
Gaytime Hawk 6/1 Bubbly Beauty (m) 25/1 Jet Stream Sound (m) 16/1 Viking Jack (w) 7/4 Jaytee Jet (w) 10/1 On Alert `10/3 Kentish Man 20/1 Ascot Woodie 25/1 Lenson Sanchez (m) 5/1 Making Paper (m) 40/1 Clares Wonder (w) EVS 100% was how I went |
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6/1 and 5/1 Gaytime and Sanchez on exchanges do for me. Each-way if possible, bets to nothing imo
Doubt Viking will keep bombing out. Very rare he does and just strung two together, leaving Ward or Gaytime to assert if close enough Clares got the draw but dont lead, dont win with not getting home and Sanchez can overpower him anyway Quattro likely to be behind Tiggy and Bish and wont be easy coming from behind both of them |
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Bish has been crawling from boxes and even if he comes away this time he is not guaranteed to lead with Lenson Tiggy inside him, Lenson Tiggy does not stay the 480m well at all so why would Rio Quattro struggle to come from behind him once leading the inside which he should do seen as Go Ahead has not worked out how to leave a box yet (if he did he could take Quattro out but he would need to come away massively better).
Clares Wonder not getting home, get a grip ffs. He tied up in round 1 as Graham said he needed the run, he ran a blinder and definitely got home last week behind Newinn Yolo. Yolo is a strong dog that was on the bunny. Viking Jack does not need to smash out this time, look at the race, they're near all devoid to the corner |
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I think lenson much better from the middle
If he turns length or two behind the bottom He rub it out ! Thinking weather to play heat 5 Can see the two being a Norse ! Can lister ~ bolt out from wide ! At silly prices! |
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He would want to be much better as he will have Making Paper squeezing him up run up and then has Ascot Woodie inside him that was horrible around the opening bends last week so although he may break better from the middle those around him will do him no favours if he is not good. Kentish Man also steps right from boxes which leaves On Alert with a lovely draw on the fence hence making him the main danger, added to that I thought Lenson Sanchez ran horrible last week.
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PF, dog doesn't warrant 5/1 on an indifferent run. Look at him the time before?
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The time before when he was destroyed for pace to the 3rd bend by Boom Boom Hero and then just outstayed him?
I am pricing him up on what I believe his true chances of winning this race are, no other race. |
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Well, i think you got the prices wrong. Sanchez the better stayer and with a run, best recent time of 28.37calc and Clares not staying on at the finish, around the 28.43calc mark. Doesnt warrant that gulf in prices, imo
With Quattro, yes Tiggy doesnt stay but still not convinced Quattro that great when coming from behind dogs. May not find it that easy if trying to pass on the bend and is this the same Bish you was all over last round? Can do better and expecting him to do better. Personally hope Quattro qualifies though |
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agree with so much of what PF says - but then im doing my b0ll0cks
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I would imagine twisting your testicles with a pliers is nearly as painful as discussing greyhound racing with you Woody.
What has been being all over Bish last week to do with this weeks race?? Last week I really fancied him as I thought if coming away at all he would go around in front, as it happened he walked out even worse than the previous week. This time he has basically a sprinter drawn inside him so even if good at boxes he is not guaranteed to lead. I explained my view on the race already. Go Ahead 12/1 Rio Quattro 7/4 Blonde Nipper (m) 5/1 Lenson Tiggy (m) 7/1 Tynwald Bish (w) 7/2 Shotgun HaRLEY (w) 20/1 Was how I went ^^ You see I actually do the cards and price them, I don't just come on after bet365 price up the evening before and say my tissue is the exact same bar maybe one or 2 small differences |
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twisting your testicles with a pliers is nearly as painful as discussing greyhound racing with you Woody.
absolutely ROFL. Genuinely laughing out loud |
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Ask my mate if you dont believe me. 365 issue prices 5pm. Mate gets my tissue early that morning
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Mate gets my tissues early that morning
sounds about right  |
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kwality thread |
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Anyway, is your pricing up like the time you put 16/1 up about good thing Priceless Sky?
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"Good thing" ah the mug punters favourite saying
I think I made him 10s to 100% and offered you 7s which you declined seen as he was such a "good thing" Well done for finding one I got totally wrong (although Isabels Boy leading and going wrong helped) but then I have never pretended to always get it spot on |
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youve pulled a race up over 2 years ago......
think how many races he has priced up in that time......... odds compilers usually have 3 people to make tissues, discuss, and form the price they put out to the industry.......... we on here are one man bands. a losing day, a losing week, even a losing month, isn't the sole criteria to measure whether you are a good punter or not, let alone a losing race. sounds like you feel your tissues are more accurate than PF's as a rule of thumb. |
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Anyway, actual prices earlies and at the track much shorter than your 100% projection. Yes, Clares could be the only one where you get your 100% price but you cant be saying that's excellent value, just fair
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fishing again
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PF is better than me. Think there are a few of them who go round backing dogs at the right prices. I'm very small time and dont put in as much work as PF. Still have my opinions though and think some of them should be valued instead of getting constant critisism
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has to be.
actual prices at the track and earlies much shorter than your 100% projection? dont bet then ffs. an outcome of an even can only happen 100% of the time. i cant get heads 11 times if i only flip the coin 10 times ffs. if you cant beat the price on earlies, or at the track, you dont bet its as simple as that, unless you are doing it for fun and have no asperations or expectations to win as a punter long term. i dont just price to 100% then bet from there. all prices, me, pf, you, odds compilers, are a guestimate. no one can know how often something will truly happen. therefore i use an "edge" or a "margin of error". i wont bet 11/10 something i made evens to 100% - i need a bigger edge than the 2%. i would need 5/4 minimum, for a one point bet. evens dictates 50% chance. 5/4 44% so i have the 5% edge built in. i would then approximately need a further 3% for each point bet. 6/4 would be required (40%) for me to have a 2pt bet. 7/4 required (36%) for a 3pt bet. 2/1 (33%) for a 4pt bet etc. |
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Think i need a degree in mathematics to understand that little lot!
. Maybe you would like to educate me over a beer at Wimbo next Tuesday? |
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worldcitizen • June 9, 2015 7:06 AM BST
Are you coming out Mr Woodmanchester ? Opportuning again woody!! |
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tbh woody absolutely anyone can pick winners - apart from me over the weekend it seems - not many know how to punt properly or bet properly. the whole point of betting is because bookmakers think an outcome has X percentage chance of winning. if you think its greater the odds are in your favour. you might not win but if you did it 1000 times you should.
knowing how to punt i would say is far more important. how many times do people have winning run, increase their stakes because they feel good and feel they have plenty, have bets they wouldnt do normally, then have a bad run when they lose it all and bet bigger so they lose even more and are worse off than when they started the run. its far more important. |
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Did respond but my post got deleted! Best way to find out is ask the 50 or so woman friends ive had, if i'm gay or not
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playa
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jF9ZFDLvm8
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Yes Addy, i know the betting percentages but would rather bet what i fancy, rather than mathematically one better than another. Having a good year if i break even. Gets me out visiting tracks and i find greyhound racing fun and exciting. Especially when what i consider to be the best dogs winning, usually bet 8/10 towards top end of the market
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Can't have ward @ evens nuts
I made jack 11/8 ward 9/4 He must be evens to lead round Even ward will have to go some to peg him back Thought go ahead could pick up the leader in messy race Roxholme kid looks to have good chance Clare's wonder with a 1-6 saver GL peeps |
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LOL only 50 woody you need to get out more
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im not sure if its good or bad, this aint shelbourne park after all that myslef and pf are thinking simialr this round
  on clares wonder and vj. Would have beaten patrick, knocking over the poor soul in the wheelchair myself when i saw 5/2 vj. if woody doesnt get you, pf will.    haha. |
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im not saying it wouldn't be interesting to delve into the murky world of woodies wicked ways (with the ladies) but in truth im more interested in who wants your tissue early in the morning........surely not irishone!!!!
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My dog racing friend. Just a guide. Been pretty much spot on with earlies lately. Jennifer, Alison, Phillipa, Sue, i wrote this song for you!
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lol winja
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Richard Birch and Pat Kelly currently disputing favoritism in Woodys 'friend' market.
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Funny I was watching porno flick bloke had Man City hat on
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Well, I've turned 50 now Flappy, reckon by the time PF reaches that milestone, he'll have more tales to tell than me!
. 50 females is bragging. A fair few nearer the mark but I'm a one-women man now |