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Chopper76
29 May 13 09:25
Joined:
Date Joined: 09 May 10
| Topic/replies: 296 | Blogger: Chopper76's blog
Maybe this topic is a bit premature as we should maybe wait until most firms go up in case we are educating their traders but I'm just throwing it out there
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Report BJG May 29, 2013 10:23 AM BST
Cannot believe Droopys Jet isnt odds on drawn one
Report DONEMYLOT May 29, 2013 10:38 AM BST
lay Eske win and place
Report AWOOGA May 29, 2013 10:41 AM BST
Airlie impact heat1
Report woodmanchester May 29, 2013 1:41 PM BST
Liking 2/1 Slick Santiago. Ran 28.40s off a 4.78 split on his debut here and was a silly 270 antepost on the exchanges for outright honours very recently. Looks a very weak heat to me
Report Zach_Thomas54 May 29, 2013 4:07 PM BST
Agree Woody... also 4/6 Eden Star in that poor heat looks a cracking price to me
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK May 29, 2013 6:32 PM BST
OUT OF 26 HEATS YOU FIND 4/6 POKE AS VALUE

I COULD SAY FARLOE CHICO WIN 8/11 BUT MY BLIND NAN POINT THAT ONE OUT TO MELaugh
Report woodmanchester May 29, 2013 7:20 PM BST
Think 4/6 is value about a 2/5 shot Wink
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK May 29, 2013 7:30 PM BST
YOU WOULD!
Report Zach_Thomas54 May 29, 2013 10:57 PM BST
I think it should be 1/3 which = value at 4/6... I could pick a 20/1 loser if you want?
Report irishone May 29, 2013 11:24 PM BST
Heat 4 Silverview Pinky 10-1
Heat 5 Jolly Bullseye 9-2
Heat 13 Be Real 8-1
Heat 14 Smiler Jack 10-1
Heat 17 Blanco 4-1
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK May 30, 2013 7:19 AM BST
4-6 - 20-1 bit of diffence
4-6 not a working mans bet its a footballers bet
£600 or £6000 bet I'm pretty sure coral wont lay that type
Even with that we lay £10k bollox !!

Value there be bits about but when a good firm
Like hills go first its card been marked by some !

value Friday bets not many IMO think Saturday better punting card myself

think Jaytee hell cat win great draw 6 go ping he pick it up 1-2 do each other early
backed clavin but I'm on what hills pays me out its a total match with 6
see how I feel what else's I back
Saturday like lots but main bets fire height spec think it clear one be good night
And best Irish thing stonepark crash!

4 just about working mans prices !
Report irishone May 30, 2013 7:33 AM BST
I can see where fattie is coming from though
To win a ton would cost you 150 Zach
At 10/1 the same ton is going to cost you just 10.

You cant beat that for value can you ?

now whether or not the dog wins is a different matter .
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 30, 2013 7:53 AM BST
If he believes Eden Star is a 2/5 shot and he's priced up at 4/6 it is value in his eyes

For the same 10/1 shot to be as much value he'd have to have made him a 4/1 shot
Report Zach_Thomas54 May 31, 2013 1:42 AM BST
I get where you are coming from that it is a short price but PF summed it up perfect.

If I had to give a big price which I think is value, then Bridge Honcho at 10/1 is too big. In that race I am also all over 5 and 6 reverse forecast at 40 & 50/1 (365) as I think Rodge will ruin Eske and Tango's race.
Report irishone May 31, 2013 2:15 AM BST
absolute drivel p f, its a 6% difference compared to a 55% difference, what the feck you on about ?

these ferry crossings are fecking boring Laugh
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 31, 2013 7:52 AM BST
If you believe it is a 2/5 shot you believe it has a 71.43% chance of winning - If the bookmakers price it 4/6 they're saying it has a 60% chance of winning so you believe they are wrong by 11.43%


If you believe it is a 4/1 shot you believe it has a 20% chance of winning - If the bookmakers price it 10/1 they're saying it has a 9.09% chance of winning so you believe they are wrong by 10.91%
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 31, 2013 7:54 AM BST
by your theory the books pricing up a 50/1 shot at 100/1 is a bigger rick than them pricing up a 2/1 shot at 7/2 - now who's talking drivel??
Report woodmanchester May 31, 2013 8:00 AM BST
Zach, you can get 14/1 Bridge Honcho with Baldfred
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 31, 2013 8:02 AM BST
Baldy obviously has no intentions of taking on Eske during the competition judging by how they've priced tonights heat
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 9:02 AM BST
Have backed both Isabels and Honcho. Can see bottom shooting clear but 5 picking him up if getting a run just behind. Just cant see how Eske avoids a crash.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 31, 2013 9:03 AM BST
that happens DML and my laptop will probably be fckd out the window Sad
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 9:07 AM BST
mine was last night. Cry
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 31, 2013 9:11 AM BST
Sad hopefully all back tonight
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 9:20 AM BST
will do if Honcho wins

You wouldnt believe what I meant to back and then actually laid. Unbelievable. Sometimes, occassionally, one can act like a right knut
Report supchal1ce May 31, 2013 9:30 AM BST
Anyone here get any Honcho 14s at Baldfred? I got the usual carve on a small ew bet. Why do they bother pricing if they won't lay?
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y May 31, 2013 9:33 AM BST
no but got a bit on the 5s Isabels and in a few doubles with some horses

will the Derby Final night standing dish be going for the British Bred again this year Sup? just incase we need a get out of jail card Silly
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 9:41 AM BST
I want Platinumlancelot back.
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK May 31, 2013 9:51 AM BST
14s was huge but again did tipex Fred lay any!!
Report supchal1ce May 31, 2013 10:27 AM BST
Fattie - Fred cut me to 25 ew at 14s so I got a little on but not what I wanted. (Hoping for the Hove Olympic sectional 4.09 in hope more than anything).

PF - I certainly hope so, as long as the old boy is fit and well. It would be rude not to go for the hat trick. Trap 2 with a slug inside, please!
Report woodmanchester May 31, 2013 12:30 PM BST
Done, are you sure you can see Bridge Honcho picking up Isabels Boy if that "shoots clear". Always thought Honcho needed to lead to be at best, also Isabels has winning form over 549m
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 1:34 PM BST
Sure? No. Think? Yes. Thats why Ive backed both! Honcho for more tho, and it is possible he can lead. Plenty of money for him last time and completely missed the up. Just me, tho. GL
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK May 31, 2013 1:36 PM BST
Could only dream £25 ew with Fred

And when I ring sp only dog cut!
14 huge price its a race I'm not playing
We all think rodge do eske another thing doing it !

Just wsnt honcho go though !
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 1:39 PM BST
watch Eske win at 11-10 and a lot of moaning! Laugh
Report gwladys street May 31, 2013 1:42 PM BST
decent value tonight

aero tobias at 12's
knockglass billy at odds against
paradise martini at 3's

good luck all
Report noflapleft May 31, 2013 7:35 PM BST
Easy 3 miss it 5 got smashed happy to lay next time  w d winners
Report DONEMYLOT May 31, 2013 8:46 PM BST
best value was 4-5 Eske
Report woodmanchester June 2, 2013 9:23 AM BST
...but nobody on here wanted him Done. They were too busy trying to get him eliminated!
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