Greyhounds
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16 Dec 12
11:54
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Date Joined:
25 Aug 11
When i had big antepost prices Meadow Bank Owl and Farloe Kyle for the 3 Steps at Sheffield, only for a 25/1 shot to win, should have known it wasnt going to be my year then.
The following month, Taylors Sky was going for my biggest ever win in the Derby, lumped on at a very big price way before the competition started, but unlucky behind 8/1 poke Blonde Snapper.
Unlucky with Romeo Patrol (Regency) and Loughteen Blanco (Sussex Cup) June and July, but August took the biscuit in the Steel City Cup.
Had big bets at big prices Slick Santiago and Boher Paddy, 11/10 and 11/8 chances on the night, only for Skywalker Louie to spoil the party at 10/1.
Peggys Style winning the Yorkshire St Leger at 10/1 did me no favours in September and Farloe Warhawk and Taylors Sky (both good prices antepost) were behind Loughteen Blanco in the Henlow Derby October.
To rub salt into the wound, a dog i've been touting since a puppy Sawpit Sensation won the Eclipse last month and, unlike the competition before, i didnt back it.
Paradise Madison getting beat in the Comerford Cakes over the weekend at 4/7 when i had a decent antepost price put the icing on the cake.
Only real bets outstanding for the this year: Jumeirah Dubai (National Sprint) Skywalker Louie and Whiterock (Harry Holmes Memorial) Borna Gem (Christmas Oaks) and Lottes Girl (Boxing Day Marathon). All of those must have a nail in their coffin already!
The following month, Taylors Sky was going for my biggest ever win in the Derby, lumped on at a very big price way before the competition started, but unlucky behind 8/1 poke Blonde Snapper.
Unlucky with Romeo Patrol (Regency) and Loughteen Blanco (Sussex Cup) June and July, but August took the biscuit in the Steel City Cup.
Had big bets at big prices Slick Santiago and Boher Paddy, 11/10 and 11/8 chances on the night, only for Skywalker Louie to spoil the party at 10/1.
Peggys Style winning the Yorkshire St Leger at 10/1 did me no favours in September and Farloe Warhawk and Taylors Sky (both good prices antepost) were behind Loughteen Blanco in the Henlow Derby October.
To rub salt into the wound, a dog i've been touting since a puppy Sawpit Sensation won the Eclipse last month and, unlike the competition before, i didnt back it.
Paradise Madison getting beat in the Comerford Cakes over the weekend at 4/7 when i had a decent antepost price put the icing on the cake.
Only real bets outstanding for the this year: Jumeirah Dubai (National Sprint) Skywalker Louie and Whiterock (Harry Holmes Memorial) Borna Gem (Christmas Oaks) and Lottes Girl (Boxing Day Marathon). All of those must have a nail in their coffin already!
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Replies: 44
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Your king bok
do not post crap about Dubai tomorrow just let it win!!!  If they had a smily with a gag!! |
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 pmsl |
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not to forget stripes 13/8 in notts bags final, only for tynwald ultra to spring boilover shock at 7/4
I'll never forget that |
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on another point, why don't you trade out of your bets if you feel that you have so much bad luck in finals?
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trade a 5/2 tenner antepost for a 13/8 finalist?
Hes not irishone wonders  |
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oi patrick, first of all this time last year snapper was 96-1 , i had 7 quid on it, posted it on here and after the event was accused of after timing.... at least i never aftertimed when i had the forecast and trio in that three dog dea heat the other night, so feck off
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congrats on the trio,hope you thanked woody for putting you on it
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you got to keep going. Had some awful runs this year felt like nothing was going right but if youre good enough it clicks into place.
but....Lottes? FFS, Head Waiter of the year? |
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"All went pear-shaped from April" woodmanchester 16 Dec 12 11:54 PMSL .........he has been tipping losers since ..... Woodmanchester Joined: 25 Aug 11 |
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Woody,why was Loughteen Blanco unlucky,the dog led and got beaten on merit how is that unlucky? You had a near miss with him but to call it unlucky is inacurate.
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Best thing you can do if it's been that bad is take a step back and look at why it was that bad and rectify it, don't just persume it was down to bad luck.
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Yes PF, but the system had worked successfully for several previous years. Going to ease my way into 2013.
Hector, Blanco led everywhere bar the line and was only beaten by Maldini running one of the races of its life. I felt a bit robbed anyway. Wonder, i wasnt the only one who had Stripes in short. Not a bean for it though and wholesale gamble on the T1 dog saw if drift like a barge, ran accordingly, about half a dozen lengths behind heat form. Someone knew something |
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who else had it short?
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youve had at least 4 threads saying how unlucky youve been all year ffs forget it move on and if youre good enough you will come out the other side if not then 2013 will be no differnt your biggest thing imo as its been said many times you have no clue about value and this is the thing that you need most
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If you are unlucky when you lose then you must be lucky when you win.....over a period of time skill will come to the fore......poor judges will lose and good judges will win
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Think it was 13/8 with 365 Wonder.
With respect Panda, value is in the eye of he beholder. You may go for a 4/1 shot thinking its a realistic 3/1 shot, as i would go for 2/1, seeing it as 6/4. With prices across the board on races i usually play in, someone usually goes a value price something i fancy. Like i say, whats value to one, might not be to another. Dont know about you people on the BAGS thread, but all the usual suspects on Open races, dont seem to have had a great year either. Like you said, enough said though. Going to be cutting back on betting in 2013, about £400 down this year. Clear profit margins previous years: 2008 +£1,020 09 +£260 10 +£430 11 +£490 |
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but all the usual suspects on Open races, dont seem to have had a great year either
who are they?  |
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at least youve got 1 thing right value is in the eye of the holder and imo youve got absolutly no consept of it what so ever thats your biggest problem and accepting it may prove even harder
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Obviously, i dont know coz they never print final totals like me but TR, Addy, Bookie, Danny, Flappy, Donemylot and Fatty always seems to get losers
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Okay Panda, please explain why in previous years i've come out on top then?
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it doesnt matter what you think will win keep saying that to yourself
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ffs this guy again lol, zero talent for betting on dogs and punting in general,
but the best phisher-man i have ever seen, everyone at some point has tried to help him but water off a ducks back i say leave him too it |
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I know what youre saying Panda, any of the 6 dogs could win even if its a rank outsider, as big race winners at 20/1 and 25/1 have shown recently. They may have been value to some but realistically, they had mountains to climbs.
If i gave you a 1 million free bet, stakes returned, and the betting on the race was: evs 5/1 9/2 5/1 6/1 8/1 Which one do you think you'd go for? You'll probably say the value 9/2 chance! |
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Sometimes Woody, the best lessons learned are those which bring pain.
Many people have tried to educate you in the meaning of value and until you begin to truly understand their messages it will never get better. In fact, as suggested by eyeball, past winning years may be attributed to pure luck over reasoned judgement, which may have clouded your perception and closed your doors to a different method of assessment. You have been investing in higher risk opportunities all year and are complaining when the returns are poor. Sometimes luck does raise its head like a dog going lame when clear but in your bets this year you have been beaten through one of the inherent risks associated with that bet. You clearly love greyhound racing and are passionate about open race greyhounds and I am sure you can build on that basic joy but you have to stop taking the SP as a guide to a dog’s chances and start using your own opinion based on what you see and what a race represents in the way of value. No man can win all the time, even the best judges will make losing selections, sometimes over a longer period that you may imagine but by maximising returns on winning selections the game can pay for those who have an eye and understand value. |
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Do you all remember when i first joined the Forum and wrote my "Just for the Record" thread?
Everything was normal then with winners coming out of my ear-holes, but i got a lot of stick for winning, now i'm getting a lot of stick for losing! .Its been ever since Irish had his "evil-eye" on me |
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ok thats the betting heres what i think they should be
6/4 7/1 4/1 6/1 8/1 6/1 what do you now think i will be betting now |
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Thanks Safari, you speak a lot of sense. But with 3/1 about an eventual 4/7 shot and 9/2 about a 13/8 shot on the night both beaten recently, the law of averages says i should have copped a lot more this year.
I've had dealings with trainers like Lister, Draper and DeMulder over the years and they say they are always reliant on a slice of luck, and who am i to argue with them? |
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sorry woody, not ganging up but I could not agree any more with P and everyone else
I'm off now but with the best will in the world, some of your arguments are incredibly flawed, they really are |
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Did you think they should have won because they turned up as favourites?
Did you consider that trainers of the other dogs in each race may have had something up their sleeves? Did you consider that not all greyhounds are competition dogs? Did you consider the law of averages could be a misconception of chance? You have your answers but you also have your fingers in your ears, I would usually type something like “ that’s quite a feat with your head up your arse” but I am not going to do that because I want to help you Woody, or at least ask that you start considering things a little bit more. |
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okay, good luck all!
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woodie i had a £100 double on eden star and ballyard buddy to win there comps at monmore thought the prices were fair at 2/1 4/1 both make the final thought buddy was a fair price to win the final at 3/1 deffo didnt wanna get out he wins then its eden star thought he should be at least 6/4 trading at under evs on here so my bet stands to win me 1500 i deffo dont want it all on star because imo the price is wrong so lay it to win a grand now if he wins now i only win 500 but if he loses i get a grand its all about value
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woody with all due respect you wouldnt have a clue if i have had a great year or done my absolute balls. happy for you to go through and find through the year bets ive put up, maybe double check that little derby tipping comp that most of us done, and maybe let me know where im going wrong. the good thing about triyng to find value and not just punting fav after fav thrown in with antepost fav saving on the antepost 2nd fav as you appear to have done at monmore is that you dont need to have a 60% strike rate.
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Woody i did show my PC invoice one week about a month ago if you check back you will find it.I have always said i dont make what i make at dogs.Recently though i have been betting unders and have made a right few quid at it and have got alot of accounts either limited or closed.
Its not rocket science that if you play the unders at the correct tracks you will make a decent profit if you stake correctly.The same if you beat the prices by getting on early in the open races.My biggest problem is i cant get on with most of the books for a decent ammount.The above examples make money because you are getting value by beating the price,ie if the track locals bet something on here into 3.5 and you get 7/2 with the books or even 3s then who do you think will be more accurate with their percieved price?I know if it was at my local track and it was on Betfair i would be very dissapointed if i wasnt more accurate than the big firms. My attitude is unless you attend every meeting or you get every video you will struggle to make it pay and even by doing the above you still need good staking and good discipline.I dont buy into systems or theories etc like bet every trap 5 at x price at x track because if you start winning you can bet your boots it wont be long before some employee is copying you and taking your value.My advice would be to have a go at betting the unders with the firms and see how you get on and maybe then you will understand the concept of value but be warned as soon as you win a good amount ie £1k you will get shut down or severely limited. |
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the harder you work the luckier you get
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lads the biggest problem i have with woody is this re-occuring combination of words that regularly turn up in his replies
"Yes i agree" or "I know ........" quickly followed by the word " BUT ........ " In short he hasn't taken a blind bit of notice of anyone on here in 15 months of posting!  |
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anyone who gets the value wont have many a/c "s left with the firms
so if u have your a/c"s intact you have your answer |