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zolaisgod
11 Oct 12 10:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 605 | Blogger: zolaisgod's blog
jaytee hellcat 656 newcastle 8/1 you gotta be jokin !!!!!!!!!

ran a blinder in the heats from a draw it doesnt want, much better from the middle. 2 lacks early and is rails 1 isnt the class. 5 doesnt trap but has blinding early and can hold 6 up who was middle/rails at the first bend on saturday. 4 will hold its line and i expect 3 to be in front by the first bend and none of these will back run it 3/1 chance imo
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Report Sgt. Sunshine • October 11, 2012 10:49 AM BST
Agree. FWIW my system has it down as fav. Lads have cut to 7/1. GL.
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK • October 11, 2012 12:08 PM BST
i thought he go well tonight auto clear red and blue
Report Czechbet • October 11, 2012 12:21 PM BST
only prob the potential weather, gl zola
Report patrick starr • October 11, 2012 12:48 PM BST
im sure god gave us the same brain zola(some would say i must be sharing a fker tho tbh).

SCary how often i agree with your thinking!
Report patrick starr • October 11, 2012 12:50 PM BST
oh and just for the record,i think we are 0/10 when we agree! lol Sad
Report zolaisgod • October 11, 2012 12:54 PM BST
yes that is always a worry to be fair czech. lol ps normally they are always big prices as well !! thats hope we can go 1/11 Wink
Report irishone • October 11, 2012 4:39 PM BST
sorry a bit dyslexic here... thought thread was MASSIVE R1CE PRICK Laugh
Report track record • October 11, 2012 4:45 PM BST
Laugh
just what i thought at firstLaugh
Report gwladys street • October 11, 2012 5:34 PM BST
Agree, ran very well last week. Should lead down the middle and hold 5/6 early.                                                                                                           Good luck all
Report noflapleft • October 11, 2012 6:31 PM BST
Just lump on west mead shaw 5:6 looks value
Report FATTIEWHITEYSLOVEADRINK • October 11, 2012 6:57 PM BST
Well done winners hellcat done the biz o
Report irishone • October 11, 2012 6:57 PM BST
GREAT SHOUT
Report gwladys street • October 11, 2012 6:58 PM BST
Well done all, was surprised to see the odds this morning to be honest.
Report patrick starr • October 11, 2012 6:58 PM BST
well done lads,great work,hi fives! Happy
Report noflapleft • October 11, 2012 7:03 PM BST
Top shot well done all
Report tobe • October 11, 2012 7:04 PM BST
what time is race please? off to shop to get on
Report zolaisgod • October 11, 2012 7:06 PM BST
oi oi jaytee turn left lol well done ps job done
Report patrick starr • October 11, 2012 7:07 PM BST
lol tobe,i can see where 4 days leaves you short of time mate Wink
Report Czechbet • October 11, 2012 7:07 PM BST
wd lads good work, big price yankee off and running Excited
Report Sgt. Sunshine • October 11, 2012 7:17 PM BST
WD zola Happy
Report tobe • October 11, 2012 7:17 PM BST
fck me look at the emoticons coming out like confetti
happy days all round, you grumbling old whiners
Report patrick starr • October 11, 2012 7:24 PM BST
somebody throw tobe a bone ffs
Report patrick starr • October 11, 2012 7:25 PM BST
there'll be other days tobe,just keep an eye on the forum mate Laugh
Report irishone • October 11, 2012 7:38 PM BST
Laugh
Report WestWayStar • October 11, 2012 8:45 PM BST
Wd op,hope u made plenty,
Report track record • October 11, 2012 10:29 PM BST
vwd  zola  /  patrick  /  all backers
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 2:34 AM BST
Excellent shout Zola but still hopeful of Killieford Deal in final
Report safari guide • October 12, 2012 10:06 AM BST
Fantastic tipping Zola, nice that after placing your bet you also helped the little people as we were christened by Kinky all those years ago.

Woody, please use this thread as the perfect example of a judge getting value. This is the practice of the theory I was trying to explain. In this case the dog won but the returning SP of 3/1 over the early price of 8/1 and slightly lower, meant it would still have been value if chinned.

I advised you to look for a big price in a heat and on this occassion someone else did the hardest work of finding the golden nugget. Dont compare your selection to Zolas for the final, take this opportunity as one of the steps in learning how to bet value.
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 10:15 AM BST
Okay Safari. Dont always work though but nice when it does Wink
Report irishone • October 12, 2012 10:16 AM BST
.... FFS woody ... you don't even listen to the voice of reason Cry
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 10:30 AM BST
...and i havent tried reasoning with you? Okay, so we're saying get greater odds than sp and we have value, coz that's what this is. What about my 33/1 Skate On in the Scurry when it's going to be about 9/2 in the final? Of course, everyone will say the 33/1 wasnt value!
Report irishone • October 12, 2012 10:31 AM BST
Half the battle is getting the value woody
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 10:33 AM BST
...and i havent tried reasoning with you? Okay, so we're saying get greater odds than sp and we have value, coz that's what this is. What about my 33/1 Skate On in the Scurry when it's going to be about 9/2 in the final? Of course, everyone will say the 33/1 wasnt value!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • October 12, 2012 10:40 AM BST
Just because the dog somebody backs returns shorter, even considerably shorter does not automatically mean the price they bet the dog at was value. [not implying this case was one of those instances]


Well done Zola, PS, GS and any other backers i've missed out.
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • October 12, 2012 10:43 AM BST
And just because you back a dog at 33/1 ante post and it it 9/2 to win the final does not automatically mean the 33/1 was value.

How about i back a certain dog for next years Derby at 5/2, it goes off 1/2 fav for next years final, does that mean the 5/2 was value?? Of course it doesn't, it means i'm a raving lunatic who should not be let out of the house with money in my pocket!!
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 10:45 AM BST
Irish, with respect, i've had value.

About 10/1 Boher Paddy and 20/1 Slick Santiago in same race Steel City Cup about 11/10 and 11/8 chances in final.

About 9/2 Bowtime Joey, 10/1 Meadow Bank Owl and 20/1 about 7/4, 9/4 and 7/2 chances in same race 3 Steps

and

4/1 Farloe Warhawk and 7/2 Taylors Sky, about evens and 3/1 chances in same race Henlow Derby just very few examples of getting much better odds than actual chances, all beaten.

No such thing as a certainty, at any price. You will always need a degree of luck. I always look for so called value and beating the book is the only way to make betting pay in the long run, but so many imponderables in greyhound racing it cant be classed as an exact science
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • October 12, 2012 10:54 AM BST
Woody when you back a dog ante post you are backing him against every other dog in the competition, 48 or whatever amount that may be. His price therefore has to reflect his/her chance against the other 47 runners.

If the dog you backed makes the final you can't say x price was value as he is now shorter as now his price is reflecting his/her chances against only 5 other dogs.

You will never get it, or don't want to i think.


Anyway i don't know why the thread took this turn but it should be left as it started, a brilliant tip and well done to those who profited off it.
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 11:01 AM BST
Yeah, great shout. Keep them coming, please
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • October 12, 2012 11:07 AM BST
Keep them coming?? Woody do you not see the flaw in your theory??

If i offered you 5/1 Cuil Cougar at the start of the Irish Derby in your view that would have been a value bet as the dog went off 3/1 for the final?? I persume 16/1 Coolykereen Imp would have been value too seen as his 'sp' was shorter in the final??

Is what i'm saying that diffucult to understand?
Report safari guide • October 12, 2012 11:08 AM BST
That was my fault Premier, I wanted to use this example to help Woody on his quest to understand value. You are also correct in your explanation. Woody needs to want to understand that anti-post bets have all kinds of risks attached, bad draws, going, unexposed dogs becoming exposed etc and the AP price will always be bigger to reflect those aspects.

Zola not only correctly spotted value he also predicted the correct price was around 3/1 which the market agreed. The 5 addittional spots were all value for doing one thing.
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 11:16 AM BST
Youre right lads, antepost usually entails a few rounds and each one has to be assessed on it's individual merits. In Skate On's case, she closely linked form with dogs much shorter, so i thought her value at 33/1, as i would have rated her about 16/1
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • October 12, 2012 11:17 AM BST
Didn't see the race but seems he read it pretty much right looking at the result, 6 outtrapped 5 but 5 had the better early. The winner led the inside boxes up as he/she expected.

All in all a well thought out good bet.
Report gwladys street • October 12, 2012 1:15 PM BST
pf, i've sent you a p.m regarding tonights rommers card
Report Addy_D • October 12, 2012 6:40 PM BST
love reading these threads Laugh
Report irishone • October 12, 2012 6:56 PM BST
Woody
Report irishone • October 12, 2012 6:56 PM BST
LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report irishone • October 12, 2012 6:58 PM BST
good job you're harmless woody ... probrably shirtless as well Laugh
Report woodmanchester • October 12, 2012 7:13 PM BST
Well, i do sing Let Me Entertain You, as well as other songs on karaoke. Yeah, running at a loss this year. I dont actual disagree with PF and Safari but you can have perceived value all you like, which if it's for one isnt naturally viewed that way by everybody, but you NEED LUCK, too. You can get stuck in a rut, just as you can enjoy a winning streak
Report Czechbet • October 12, 2012 7:44 PM BST
anyone got that "head in hands man" to hand lol
Report ER WHAT HAPPENED THERE • October 12, 2012 7:46 PM BST
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Report Czechbet • October 12, 2012 7:50 PM BST
brilliant Happy
Report Addy_D • October 12, 2012 8:45 PM BST
i dont know if it can be put any other way. what we're saying woody isnt specific just to greyhounds, its just betting full stop. unfortunately youd get the same reaction from most people on any of the other forums on the site.
Report Czechbet • October 12, 2012 9:02 PM BST
can everyone stop calling woody "harmless" from now on please

he is doing everyone heads in lol
Report irishone • October 12, 2012 9:03 PM BST
yeah ... sorry czech Laugh
Report wondersobright • October 12, 2012 9:29 PM BST
woody is more hapless than harmless
Report woodmanchester • October 13, 2012 12:57 PM BST
Yeah, like a hedgehog gone for the yoghurt at the bottom of a carton and got stuck!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • October 16, 2012 11:52 AM BST
You boys going back to the well for the final?

Looks overpriced again to me, drawn between Joscar and Bluehawk both whom he should be leading to the corner. Express Flame will struggle to clear Lemon Pluto and Killieford Deal will struggle to clear Express Flame. Looks to me that he either leads around or follows Lemon Pluto around and if both cases must have a massive chance.
Report patrick starr • October 16, 2012 12:55 PM BST
am on antepost pf,agree looks to have a great shout,am concerned that maybe pluto n hellcat are drawn wrong way round though?
Report zolaisgod • October 16, 2012 5:12 PM BST
just watched the dvd of the 2 semis.jaytee is very well drawn again but is still very green on the bends and im slightly worried that 4 although middle/wide on the run up might cut the corner and force him to check.express flame was going slightly quicker into the turn than jaytee but was clipped from behind as it was heading middle on the run up and has it all to do to clear 4.if 6 could ever trap level with em then it would win imo as it is genuine wide and will stay out of any troublespots and also stays well.cant have 1 or 3. in summary i can only see 2 or 6 winning but both need things to go right and there is not a lot of juice in eithers price. the value was definately in the semi lol. good luck to all those who get involved
Report woodmanchester • October 16, 2012 6:30 PM BST
Plain and simple, Killieford Deal leads and wins Devil
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