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jaytee hellcat 656 newcastle 8/1 you gotta be jokin !!!!!!!!!
ran a blinder in the heats from a draw it doesnt want, much better from the middle. 2 lacks early and is rails 1 isnt the class. 5 doesnt trap but has blinding early and can hold 6 up who was middle/rails at the first bend on saturday. 4 will hold its line and i expect 3 to be in front by the first bend and none of these will back run it 3/1 chance imo
ran a blinder in the heats from a draw it doesnt want, much better from the middle. 2 lacks early and is rails 1 isnt the class. 5 doesnt trap but has blinding early and can hold 6 up who was middle/rails at the first bend on saturday. 4 will hold its line and i expect 3 to be in front by the first bend and none of these will back run it 3/1 chance imo
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Agree. FWIW my system has it down as fav. Lads have cut to 7/1. GL.
i thought he go well tonight auto clear red and blue
im sure god gave us the same brain zola(some would say i must be sharing a fker tho tbh).
SCary how often i agree with your thinking!
SCary how often i agree with your thinking!
oh and just for the record,i think we are 0/10 when we agree! lol 
yes that is always a worry to be fair czech. lol ps normally they are always big prices as well !! thats hope we can go 1/11 
sorry a bit dyslexic here... thought thread was MASSIVE R1CE PRICK 
Agree, ran very well last week. Should lead down the middle and hold 5/6 early. Good luck all
Well done winners hellcat done the biz o
Well done all, was surprised to see the odds this morning to be honest.
lol tobe,i can see where 4 days leaves you short of time mate
fck me look at the emoticons coming out like confetti
happy days all round, you grumbling old whiners
happy days all round, you grumbling old whiners
there'll be other days tobe,just keep an eye on the forum mate
Excellent shout Zola but still hopeful of Killieford Deal in final
Fantastic tipping Zola, nice that after placing your bet you also helped the little people as we were christened by Kinky all those years ago.
Woody, please use this thread as the perfect example of a judge getting value. This is the practice of the theory I was trying to explain. In this case the dog won but the returning SP of 3/1 over the early price of 8/1 and slightly lower, meant it would still have been value if chinned.
I advised you to look for a big price in a heat and on this occassion someone else did the hardest work of finding the golden nugget. Dont compare your selection to Zolas for the final, take this opportunity as one of the steps in learning how to bet value.
Woody, please use this thread as the perfect example of a judge getting value. This is the practice of the theory I was trying to explain. In this case the dog won but the returning SP of 3/1 over the early price of 8/1 and slightly lower, meant it would still have been value if chinned.
I advised you to look for a big price in a heat and on this occassion someone else did the hardest work of finding the golden nugget. Dont compare your selection to Zolas for the final, take this opportunity as one of the steps in learning how to bet value.
Okay Safari. Dont always work though but nice when it does
.... FFS woody ... you don't even listen to the voice of reason 
...and i havent tried reasoning with you? Okay, so we're saying get greater odds than sp and we have value, coz that's what this is. What about my 33/1 Skate On in the Scurry when it's going to be about 9/2 in the final? Of course, everyone will say the 33/1 wasnt value!
...and i havent tried reasoning with you? Okay, so we're saying get greater odds than sp and we have value, coz that's what this is. What about my 33/1 Skate On in the Scurry when it's going to be about 9/2 in the final? Of course, everyone will say the 33/1 wasnt value!
Just because the dog somebody backs returns shorter, even considerably shorter does not automatically mean the price they bet the dog at was value. [not implying this case was one of those instances]
Well done Zola, PS, GS and any other backers i've missed out.
Well done Zola, PS, GS and any other backers i've missed out.
And just because you back a dog at 33/1 ante post and it it 9/2 to win the final does not automatically mean the 33/1 was value.
How about i back a certain dog for next years Derby at 5/2, it goes off 1/2 fav for next years final, does that mean the 5/2 was value?? Of course it doesn't, it means i'm a raving lunatic who should not be let out of the house with money in my pocket!!
How about i back a certain dog for next years Derby at 5/2, it goes off 1/2 fav for next years final, does that mean the 5/2 was value?? Of course it doesn't, it means i'm a raving lunatic who should not be let out of the house with money in my pocket!!
Irish, with respect, i've had value.
About 10/1 Boher Paddy and 20/1 Slick Santiago in same race Steel City Cup about 11/10 and 11/8 chances in final.
About 9/2 Bowtime Joey, 10/1 Meadow Bank Owl and 20/1 about 7/4, 9/4 and 7/2 chances in same race 3 Steps
and
4/1 Farloe Warhawk and 7/2 Taylors Sky, about evens and 3/1 chances in same race Henlow Derby just very few examples of getting much better odds than actual chances, all beaten.
No such thing as a certainty, at any price. You will always need a degree of luck. I always look for so called value and beating the book is the only way to make betting pay in the long run, but so many imponderables in greyhound racing it cant be classed as an exact science
About 10/1 Boher Paddy and 20/1 Slick Santiago in same race Steel City Cup about 11/10 and 11/8 chances in final.
About 9/2 Bowtime Joey, 10/1 Meadow Bank Owl and 20/1 about 7/4, 9/4 and 7/2 chances in same race 3 Steps
and
4/1 Farloe Warhawk and 7/2 Taylors Sky, about evens and 3/1 chances in same race Henlow Derby just very few examples of getting much better odds than actual chances, all beaten.
No such thing as a certainty, at any price. You will always need a degree of luck. I always look for so called value and beating the book is the only way to make betting pay in the long run, but so many imponderables in greyhound racing it cant be classed as an exact science
Woody when you back a dog ante post you are backing him against every other dog in the competition, 48 or whatever amount that may be. His price therefore has to reflect his/her chance against the other 47 runners.
If the dog you backed makes the final you can't say x price was value as he is now shorter as now his price is reflecting his/her chances against only 5 other dogs.
You will never get it, or don't want to i think.
Anyway i don't know why the thread took this turn but it should be left as it started, a brilliant tip and well done to those who profited off it.
If the dog you backed makes the final you can't say x price was value as he is now shorter as now his price is reflecting his/her chances against only 5 other dogs.
You will never get it, or don't want to i think.
Anyway i don't know why the thread took this turn but it should be left as it started, a brilliant tip and well done to those who profited off it.
Keep them coming?? Woody do you not see the flaw in your theory??
If i offered you 5/1 Cuil Cougar at the start of the Irish Derby in your view that would have been a value bet as the dog went off 3/1 for the final?? I persume 16/1 Coolykereen Imp would have been value too seen as his 'sp' was shorter in the final??
Is what i'm saying that diffucult to understand?
If i offered you 5/1 Cuil Cougar at the start of the Irish Derby in your view that would have been a value bet as the dog went off 3/1 for the final?? I persume 16/1 Coolykereen Imp would have been value too seen as his 'sp' was shorter in the final??
Is what i'm saying that diffucult to understand?
That was my fault Premier, I wanted to use this example to help Woody on his quest to understand value. You are also correct in your explanation. Woody needs to want to understand that anti-post bets have all kinds of risks attached, bad draws, going, unexposed dogs becoming exposed etc and the AP price will always be bigger to reflect those aspects.
Zola not only correctly spotted value he also predicted the correct price was around 3/1 which the market agreed. The 5 addittional spots were all value for doing one thing.
Zola not only correctly spotted value he also predicted the correct price was around 3/1 which the market agreed. The 5 addittional spots were all value for doing one thing.
Youre right lads, antepost usually entails a few rounds and each one has to be assessed on it's individual merits. In Skate On's case, she closely linked form with dogs much shorter, so i thought her value at 33/1, as i would have rated her about 16/1
Didn't see the race but seems he read it pretty much right looking at the result, 6 outtrapped 5 but 5 had the better early. The winner led the inside boxes up as he/she expected.
All in all a well thought out good bet.
All in all a well thought out good bet.
pf, i've sent you a p.m regarding tonights rommers card
good job you're harmless woody ... probrably shirtless as well
Well, i do sing Let Me Entertain You, as well as other songs on karaoke. Yeah, running at a loss this year. I dont actual disagree with PF and Safari but you can have perceived value all you like, which if it's for one isnt naturally viewed that way by everybody, but you NEED LUCK, too. You can get stuck in a rut, just as you can enjoy a winning streak
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i dont know if it can be put any other way. what we're saying woody isnt specific just to greyhounds, its just betting full stop. unfortunately youd get the same reaction from most people on any of the other forums on the site.
can everyone stop calling woody "harmless" from now on please
he is doing everyone heads in lol
he is doing everyone heads in lol
Yeah, like a hedgehog gone for the yoghurt at the bottom of a carton and got stuck!
You boys going back to the well for the final?
Looks overpriced again to me, drawn between Joscar and Bluehawk both whom he should be leading to the corner. Express Flame will struggle to clear Lemon Pluto and Killieford Deal will struggle to clear Express Flame. Looks to me that he either leads around or follows Lemon Pluto around and if both cases must have a massive chance.
Looks overpriced again to me, drawn between Joscar and Bluehawk both whom he should be leading to the corner. Express Flame will struggle to clear Lemon Pluto and Killieford Deal will struggle to clear Express Flame. Looks to me that he either leads around or follows Lemon Pluto around and if both cases must have a massive chance.
am on antepost pf,agree looks to have a great shout,am concerned that maybe pluto n hellcat are drawn wrong way round though?
just watched the dvd of the 2 semis.jaytee is very well drawn again but is still very green on the bends and im slightly worried that 4 although middle/wide on the run up might cut the corner and force him to check.express flame was going slightly quicker into the turn than jaytee but was clipped from behind as it was heading middle on the run up and has it all to do to clear 4.if 6 could ever trap level with em then it would win imo as it is genuine wide and will stay out of any troublespots and also stays well.cant have 1 or 3. in summary i can only see 2 or 6 winning but both need things to go right and there is not a lot of juice in eithers price. the value was definately in the semi lol. good luck to all those who get involved
Plain and simple, Killieford Deal leads and wins 
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