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ocean0201
25 Nov 11 14:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Aug 08
| Topic/replies: 8,899 | Blogger: ocean0201's blog
Hi Everyone,

I am relatively new to greyhounds and was exploring stats to find some trend or system. I was looking at trap stats for last 5 years for the top courses. I have used the data from http://www.greyhound-data.com

Now the interesting trend is that in majority and i mean 90% of the courses, Trap 5 has the least win %. The question i have is why is this so? In case of non-runners, is trap 5 left empty??

i have searched everywhere but cant find a reason so hoping that the good people of the forum help me out here

thanks
ocean
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Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 25, 2011 2:07 PM GMT
Is this a wind up?
Report ocean0201 November 25, 2011 2:14 PM GMT
no, i am just a newbie
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 25, 2011 2:20 PM GMT
Ok wanted to make sure i wasn't been caught in a net.

I don't believe in stats in greyhound racing, some do but i don't. There are many reasons why trap 5s may not have won many races. Every single race is different so there are different reasons for each result. The dog in trap 5 may want rails so he is badly drawn. The dog in 4 may move wide run up so the 5 could struggle for a run early. The dog in 6 may move inwards so the 5 may struggle for a run early. Also the dogs in some races in 5 may be just not good enough.
Report ocean0201 November 25, 2011 2:21 PM GMT
here is the table that i built

Track        Trap 1 Trap 2 Trap 3 Trap 4 Trap 5 Trap 6
Bellevue    17%    16%    18%    17%    15%    16%   
Crayford    17%    16%    18%    17%    15%    18%   
Hall Green    16%    18%    17%    16%    15%    18%   
Hove        18%    15%    20%    16%    14%    18%   
Kinsley    18%    17%    17%    16%    15%    17%   
Monmore    17%    19%    18%    17%    14%    15%   
Nottingham    17%    16%    18%    16%    15%    17%   
Oxford    17%    16%    19%    19%    15%    15%   
Perry Barr    17%    15%    18%    18%    16%    16%   
Sittingbourne    16%    17%    16%    16%    15%    19%   
Sheffield    17%    16%    18%    16%    15%    18%   
Sunderland    16%    16%    18%    16%    15%    18%   
Swindon     18%    16%    18%    16%    15%    18%   
Yarmouth    16%    18%    18%    17%    14%    17%   
Grand        17%    16%    18%    17%    15%    17%   
Report ocean0201 November 25, 2011 2:24 PM GMT
thanks ReimerpYsatnaf , i was worried if i have missed any obvious reasons but looks like it is just the worst trap for a dog to be in..
would appreciate feedback from forum on the table
Report [x] These checkboxes suck November 25, 2011 3:14 PM GMT
Is this Tim's brother?
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 25, 2011 3:17 PM GMT
Laugh
Report hectoratoratora November 25, 2011 4:53 PM GMT
5 looks a bit like a upsidedown 2 so you may well be onto something,if the shrewdies are to be believed.
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 6:15 PM GMT
I will explain why trap 5 wins the least races generally although trap 4 is the most difficult draw.

Firstly traps 5 and 6 are typically wide seeds in most races which means they have got the furthest trip round
the course so it becomes more important not to get out trapped to the bend as this creates even wider routes for
them.

secondly and most importantly in trap 5 case there is a massive bias towards trap 6 over trap 5 and the reason for this is that as the hare passes the traps because of the dogs angle of view of the hare from there staggered boxes
trap six always sights the hare first and springheels out the box ahead of trap five, from then on five is at a disadvantage round the  early bends.

Trap 4 is still the hardest trap to win from but looking at stats wil not show this, what you have to remember is that the majority of best form dogs in the race are placed in trap 4 to handicap the runner, classily known as the coffin box as they are the meat in the sandwich between the wide runners and 3 inside runners that will try and steal the inside of the intial bend.

I hope this clears the matter up for you and explains the reason for the lower than average strike rate of traps 5 and 4.
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 6:18 PM GMT
To prove the point see if you can get some stats for australian course that typically use an inside hare, yuo will notice that trap 6 or 8 will no longer have its fine strike rate and the inside runners will have the sighting the hare first bias in there favour.
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 6:25 PM GMT
ocean0201 I like your approach to greayhound racing via research so I can let you in on some even powerfuller facts about other facets of greyhound racing if you private message me but keep them to yourself.
Report [x] These checkboxes suck November 25, 2011 6:33 PM GMT
what a load of sh1t ffs
Report [x] These checkboxes suck November 25, 2011 6:33 PM GMT
or should i say 5hit
Report Magical Feast November 25, 2011 6:44 PM GMT
bf f If any of those others pearls are in this little gems class.. Im beggin ya to post them.

secondly and most importantly in trap 5 case there is a massive bias towards trap 6 over trap 5 and the reason for this is that as the hare passes the traps because of the dogs angle of view of the hare from there staggered boxes
trap six always sights the hare first and springheels out the box ahead of trap five, from then on five is at a disadvantage round the  early bends.
Report irishone November 25, 2011 8:27 PM GMT
bf_fananatic
25 Nov 11 18:25   
ocean0201 I like your approach to greayhound racing via research so I can let you in on some even powerfuller facts about other facets of greyhound racing if you private message me but keep them to yourself.


They are that "powerfuller" facts that because he "likes your approach"  you can have them for free Laugh
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 8:36 PM GMT
slow Going bias

When the going is slow and the average times are 0.25 plus slower due to rain soaked surface the inside runners that normally can hold a tight arc round bends are unable to do so and also the inside of the bends due to dogs mudding up becomes very sticky, mean while the outside of the bends remains much more sound. This gives the wide runners as much as a second advantage in very heavy going, so in such conditions backing wide runners and laying railers can be very profitable.

fast going bias

When the track is running fast and the average times are 0.25 plus due to track being very dry the inside and middle runners have a big advantage over the wide runners as they have the shortest route in the fastest time and the wide runners have even more trouble trying not to run a wide course as they are running slighty faster than normal

It will be noticed that backing wide runners at many tracks in summer is not profitable and trap 1 is at this time of the year by far the most profitable track.

Interstingly when the track is frozen it can also run as much as half a second faster in these conditions it pays to back early paced runners in traps 1 to traps 4

seasonal performance type bias

This effect is the least known and a real gem, in my research I have noticed nearly all tracks show trends that indicate when the weather is warm in spring to autumn its the stayers that have an advantage over early paced runners apart from tracks that are bias towards early paced types like crayford.

In winter when the weather is much colder the early paced types have an advantage over stayers and can win the majority of races.

Now I have contemplated why should this be, what is the reason for this and the only conclusion I can arrive at is
muscle type, muscle is ether fast twitch (white) or slow twitch(red) , red is more oxygenated and relies on the cardiovascular system to pump oxygen rich blood around it. On the other hand fast twitch relies on stored energy and isn't as reliant on oxygen. When muscles are not warmed up and cold they take longer to receive the oxygen they require, this is the type of muscle that stayer have more of and when tendons are cold they tighten up and favor the fast twitch type while the slow type muscle fibers take longer to warm up, usually in winter when the race is over!
Report irishone November 25, 2011 8:45 PM GMT
phewwwww... for a second there he had me going Laugh
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 8:56 PM GMT
personally I would love to discredit seasonal performance type bias but having looked at thousands of races and seen it occur at nearly all tracks including crayford I now have to contemplate having full years of records to calcualte the massive difference in profit this factor induces, thats why I am now spending time designing betting software angled towards trading as mastering tissue prices for value is a massive undertaking.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 25, 2011 8:58 PM GMT
The wides must always piss up over here then, it never stops raining Confused
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 9:03 PM GMT
ah but does it rain more than its normal or fast as if it does the grading ladder shoves majority bias into its correct grading level, here it is rarely slow so the grading is bias towards normal-fast going , reckon you need heavy going in ireland to see the effect, I know one thing when irish horses come to cheltunum and its heavy going they leave english horses for dead unless they have a bit of irish in themCool
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 25, 2011 9:06 PM GMT
Think i'll stick to doing the vids instead but hey each to their own.

Oh our horses win a Cheltenham on any going as they are quite simply better Devil
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 9:11 PM GMT
true, I love watching the irish raiders winning at cheltenum and some of the biggest sting horses have been come from ireland, set up to win races at massive odds.
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 9:14 PM GMT
one of my favourite tracks is leopardtown, went through the card at one meeting early this year, class races.
Report ReimerpYsatnaf November 25, 2011 9:19 PM GMT
Leopardstown is a great viewing track, the Christmas, Champion Hurdle and the Hennessy meetings are brilliant. Punchestown is a great course too, the festival there is top notch and it's a great place to be when the weather is decent. Naas and Navan are 2 other great National Hunt courses where you need to get every inch of the trip.
Luckily enough i'm only about a 10 minute drive from Leopardstown and the other 3 are easy to get too as well for me.
Report bf_fananatic November 25, 2011 9:34 PM GMT
there cant be many better sporting spectacles than watching a horse out jumping the field at a big race/meeting
and the memories of such races live on.
Report irishone November 25, 2011 10:09 PM GMT
galway's the bolleaux lads
Report irishone November 25, 2011 10:12 PM GMT
i go to cheltenham every year with a group of english fellahs
there was 8 of us 6 years ago
each year more and more of them come over for the galway summer festival
and every one of them says "Galway is the bolleaux"
i think its feck all to do with the races
its the craic more than anything Laugh
Report ocean0201 November 26, 2011 6:40 AM GMT
thanks bf_fanatic for your helpful posts... i have sent you a pm as well

to all others who think its a load of b0ll0x, can you share your thoughts as to why i should not pursue this angle further.. i am trying to get data on odds and once i combine with the trap stats i am hoping that it can point to something meaningful

thanks
ocean
Report irishone November 26, 2011 9:30 AM GMT
it will point to something meaningful.....
but you have to keep your trap shut
because when you come on here you look a bit of a dcik
to the majority of these doggie boys
i'm a stats geek, but i also own and about to start breeding greyhounds
i put the earnings back into the game
the lads on here are die hard doggie boys
if you are gonna crunch numbers its feck all
to do with the animals is it ?
so be prepared to take a bit of stick after all
it is the greyhound forum... not the maths or statistics forum , O K ?
Report pappilionmybiggestwin November 26, 2011 11:20 AM GMT
bf_fananatic some seriuos and good stats there mate
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 11:45 AM GMT
its good to share knowledge, perhaps betfair could share theres and let us have better bsp results and market data from post markets, we can only ask.
Report irishone November 26, 2011 12:17 PM GMT
hello ... share knowledge and lose the value ?
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 12:27 PM GMT
a certain amount of information sharing is beneficial to everyone, isn't that the whole idea and beauty of the internet, I know the internets original job was to create a military command system that would survive having
parts blown away in a nuclear war but the internets current use is far more beneficial to the human race provided we
all stop being greedy and self centered and show far better attributes of human nature.
Report pappilionmybiggestwin November 26, 2011 12:56 PM GMT
lol noble peace prize on the way bff
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 1:44 PM GMT
my last comment probably explains why persons residing in china are unable to have free speech and access to the internet and why I and others believe its this mentality that will prevent china from ever being the number one economy in the world when it cant embrace fairness within its own  culture and political sphere, time will tell but I think there will be a melting point for china at some point, just a question of time and the perpetual advance of human nature.
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 1:48 PM GMT
americans suffer from similar over-control by there goverment as they cant even have a bet online, as usual its the europeans that have to lead the way in culture fairness and lets not forget it started in greece so lets hope they can pull themselves out of there economic problems in this complex economic world we all now live in.
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 1:50 PM GMT
gee from dog races to the human race in 5 posts
Report patrick starr November 26, 2011 1:59 PM GMT
this thread had got to 20+ posts and i hadnt bothered reading it,i was right first time.
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 2:13 PM GMT
basically if you back trap 5 make sure if an early bird it can beat six to the bend or its a very good tracker/stayer
anything else is at a disadvantage, only marginally but enough to knock an edge off and into loss.

trap 4 is the real bogey trap, jokers to the left and clowns to the right, traps 2 and three may aim for hare and chop at lid rise, traps 1 to 3 can take its inside advantage away and traps 5 and 6 will see hare first, thats why good dogs are placed in trap 4 to handicap them, trap 4 is ok in summer when track is fast and its a stayer or bullet trapper.
Report irishone November 26, 2011 3:14 PM GMT
ReimerpYsatnaf
25 Nov 11 14:07
Is this a wind up?

Clearly Laugh
Report irishone November 26, 2011 6:42 PM GMT
Crayford Daytime Bags June 2004 to Dec 2010

month    trap    races    wins    lose    £5 stake
Jan    1     831    148     683     -53
Feb    1     834     98     736     -81
Mar    1     1059     162     897     -1190
Apr    1     1062     183     879     -1199
May    1     1085     171     914     -1317
Jun    1     1227     191     1036     -2022
Jul    1     1272     204     1068     -2244
Aug    1     1262     214     1048     -2192
Sep    1     1250     225     1025     -2129
Oct    1     1212     193     1019     -1947
Nov    1     1111     202     909     -1440
Dec    1     979     165     814     -789
Jan    2     831    130     701     -58
Feb    2     834     98     736     -81
Mar    2     1059     178     881     -1186
Apr    2     1062     138     924     -1211
May    2     1085     180     905     -1315
Jun    2     1215     194     1021     -1962
Jul    2     1272     200     1072     -2245
Aug    2     1262     211     1051     -2192
Sep    2     1250     183     1067     -2139
Oct    2     1212     184     1028     -1949
Nov    2     1111     154     957     -1452
Dec    2     979     161     818     -790
Jan    3     831    160     671     -50
Feb    3     834     169     665     -63
Mar    3     1059     192     867     -1182
Apr    3     1062     166     896     -1204
May    3     1085     198     887     -1311
Jun    3     1203     225     978     -1894
Jul    3     1272     236     1036     -2236
Aug    3     1262     205     1057     -2194
Sep    3     1250     223     1027     -2129
Oct    3     1212     248     964     -1933
Nov    3     1111     216     895     -1436
Dec    3     979     186     793     -784
Jan    4     831    152     679     -52
Feb    4     834     129     705     -73
Mar    4     1059     187     872     -1183
Apr    4     1062     200     862     -1195
May    4     1085     193     892     -1312
Jun    4     1191     202     989     -1840
Jul    4     1272     226     1046     -2239
Aug    4     1262     227     1035     -2188
Sep    4     1250     209     1041     -2133
Oct    4     1212     206     1006     -1944
Nov    4     1111     176     935     -1446
Dec    4     979     160     819     -790
Jan    5     831    118     713     -61
Feb    5     834     128     706     -73
Mar    5     1059     148     911     -1193
Apr    5     1062     167     895     -1203
May    5     1085     163     922     -1319
Jun    5     1179     208     971     -1778
Jul    5     1272     191     1081     -2247
Aug    5     1262     191     1071     -2197
Sep    5     1250     205     1045     -2134
Oct    5     1212     182     1030     -1950
Nov    5     1111     180     931     -1445
Dec    5     979     123     856     -799
Jan    6     831    123     708     -59
Feb    6     834     175     659     -61
Mar    6     1059     192     867     -1182
Apr    6     1062     208     854     -1193
May    6     1085     180     905     -1315
Jun    6     1167     207     960     -1718
Jul    6     1272     215     1057     -2241
Aug    6     1262     214     1048     -2192
Sep    6     1250     205     1045     -2134
Oct    6     1212     199     1013     -1945
Nov    6     1111     183     928     -1444
Dec    6     979     184     795     -784
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 7:22 PM GMT
crayford = terrible track/ small circumference / tight bends / ep types only win majority races

crayford is one of the most difficult tracks to win at and is similar to flapping tracks in dimensions
so trying to find trends in traps through the season is quite useless, in fact I would recommend not wagering
backing bets there, possibly great place for laying.

your stat list is quite impressive in the work put in but doesnt point to anything useful , trying to
gain any monthly deviation is made difficult because jan/feb has less than 900 race and july to october has over 1200 race
so quick comparison is disproportionate.

I love greyhound racing but crayford is so bad a track that clearly dogs lose there abilitys at a younger age due to track legs
a serious condition that is caused by racing round tight bends, fecks there joints up, if crayford closed I wouldn't blink, bad track design.
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 7:23 PM GMT
try looking at stats for hallgreen, one of best tracks in the country.
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 7:26 PM GMT
london doent own any good tracks anymore, wimbledon is ok but in a sorry state, the best tracks are in the midlands and up north, quality.Excited
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 7:30 PM GMT
my fav tracks are

1,hallgreen
2,monmore
3,hove
4,newcastle
5,sunderland
6,perry barr
7,swindon
8,sheffield
9,romford

in that order.
Report bf_fananatic November 26, 2011 7:32 PM GMT
nottingham and belle vue so so, the rest forget
Report irishone November 26, 2011 9:01 PM GMT
Bf who are you trying to kid. ?

Look at those stats carefully if you had the knowledge of the game and stats ability that you boast you have, then you would realise all the figures given are linear representations. In other words, I made them up !

You talk absolute bolleaux mate Laugh but some poor sole like ocean will believe you Laugh
Report ER WHAT HAPPENED THERE November 26, 2011 9:20 PM GMT
I have genuinely sat here, read this and had to go to the toilet because I thought I was going to pee my pants.

Possibly the funniest thread I have ever read
Report ocean0201 November 28, 2011 6:28 AM GMT
irishone,  u had everyone fooled LaughLaughLaugh

anyways looking at the responses there does not seem to be a reason why trap 5 has the lowest win rate apart from the possibility that it is worst trap for a dog to be in...  so lets leave it at that, i will ask some greyhound trainers next time i am in the UK...

thanks for all those who responded and also to those who found it funny.. HappyHappy

gl with your betting
Report irishone November 28, 2011 8:51 AM GMT
ocean that's your best bet

if you had  "a trend or system" that worked and you posted it on here, it wouldn't work for much longer Sad
Report Magical Feast November 29, 2011 11:30 PM GMT
98 % of people are not in the top 2% of the global population.







Grin
Report pappilionmybiggestwin November 30, 2011 8:49 PM GMT
did someone say fav dogging tracks?Wink
Report pappilionmybiggestwin November 30, 2011 8:52 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughyes irishone   the first line is a giveaway Jan    1     831    148     683     -53
683 wins no profit lol
Report pappilionmybiggestwin November 30, 2011 8:52 PM GMT
LaughLaughLaughyes irishone   the first line is a giveaway Jan    1     831    148     683     -53
683 wins no profit lol
Report irishone November 30, 2011 9:59 PM GMT
I think its called "Dont suffer fools gladly"   Laugh
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